Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2010-11 edition

[Todd]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2010-11 edition

--- Home Lock - 34 (ME) ---
UNH 32 - 46 [1-6]
BC 32 - 44 [1-6]
MC 27 - 41 [1-8]
BU 27 - 39 [1-8]
--- In - 25 (PC) ---
NU 21 - 33 [2-9]
ME 20 - 34 [2-9]
UMA 14 - 28 [3-10]
UVM 14 - 28 [3-10]
--- Home Eligible - 27 (MC/BU) ---
PC 11 - 25 [5-10]
UML 6 - 18 [7-10]
--- Out - 14 (UVM/UMA) ---

Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
UNH - @MC, @UVMx2, NU/@NU, @BC/BC
BC - NU/@NU, @UMA/UMA, UNH/@UNH
MC - UNH, @UMA/UMA, @MEx2, PC/@PC
BU - PC/@PC, UVMx2, @NU/NU
ME - UVM, @UMLx2, MCx2, @UMAx2
NU - @BC/BC, @UNH/UNH, BU/@BU
UMA - PC, @MC/MC, BC/@BC, MEx2
UVM - @ME, UNHx2, @BUx2, UMLx2
PC - @UMA, @BU/BU, UML/@UML, @MC/MC
UML - MEx2, @PC/PC, @UVMx2

By reaching 32 points, UNH and BC can fall no lower than 6th. For each of them to lock up Home Ice, the M# with ME is now 2 because they own the tb. With NU the M# is 2 because they don't.

For MC and BU, they have each passed PC's max, so they can fall no lower than 8th, and have locked in a playoff spot. They are one point below the maxes of UMA and UVM. BU owns the UMA tb, but the UVM tb is pending. For MC, the situation is reversed. M#s to lock up a 7 and/or 6 seed are either 1 or 2, depending on which pair you're comparing.

For NU and ME, either (or both) could pass UNH or BC, but not both due to their pending H2H. At least one of UNH and BC must reach 34+. That would put that team ahead of NU's max. That equals ME's max, but both own the ME tb. Therefore, while either of the teams tied for 1st could still end up behind NU and/or ME in 5th or 6th, the teams in 5th and 6th (NU and ME) can no longer reach 1st.

UMA and UVM are barely alive for Home Ice, but closing in on avoiding 10th.

PC will now miss out on Home Ice, but has hope for climbing into a road spot for the quarterfinals.

UML's OT loss leaves only four M# points with UMA and UVM between them and elimination.

 

[Tater]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2010-11 edition

Shouldn't Home Lock be 39 - BU?

 

[Todd]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2010-11 edition

Shouldn't Home Lock be 39 - BU?

That's where I had it before, but as noted in a couple of posts that resulted in #19 below, locking up Home Ice doesn't depend on whether you can beat out the current 4th place team, but whether the 5th highest max can catch you.

For example, if BC, MC and BU win out, which is mathematically possible, they'd hit all of their maxes. UNH, however, would still lock up Home Ice once Maine and NU can't catch them, which could happen with a win over MC tonight.

 

[claver2010]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2010-11 edition

I love this thread, excellent work as always.

 

[Todd]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2010-11 edition

--- Home Lock - 34 (ME) ---
UNH 32 - 44 [1-6]
BC 32 - 44 [1-6]
MC 29 - 41 [1-6]
BU 27 - 39 [1-6]
--- In - 24 (PC) ---
ME 22 - 34 [2-9]
NU 21 - 33 [2-9]
--- Home Eligible - 27 (BU) ---
UMA 15 - 27 [5-10]
UVM 14 - 26 [5-10]
PC 12 - 24 [5-10]
UML 6 - 18 [7-10]
--- Out - 14 (UVM) ---

Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
UNH - @UVMx2, NU/@NU, @BC/BC
BC - NU/@NU, @UMA/UMA, UNH/@UNH
MC - @UMA/UMA, @MEx2, PC/@PC
BU - PC/@PC, UVMx2, @NU/NU
ME - @UMLx2, MCx2, @UMAx2
NU - @BC/BC, @UNH/UNH, BU/@BU
UMA - @MC/MC, BC/@BC, MEx2
UVM - UNHx2, @BUx2, UMLx2
PC - @BU/BU, UML/@UML, @MC/MC
UML - MEx2, @PC/PC, @UVMx2

Just a couple of changes tonight.

Maine's win jumps them up ahead of NU again, but - combined with UNH's loss - doesn't really change anything as far as ME, NU, UNH or BC. The M#s for all four are the same as they were coming into tonight. The primary difference is that all of the games-in-hand are done and everyone has the same number of league games left, six.

UVM's loss drops their max below both MC and BU, so they can no longer reach 4th or Home Ice.

The UMA tie, combined with MC getting points, drops UMA's max below MC. The single point puts UMA's max even with BU's min, but BU has the tb (2-0-1), so UMA can also not pass either MC or BU, can only get as high as 5th and is out of the running for Home Ice. These results also mean that there are two more teams that can't catch MC or BU and the Warriors and Terriers can be no lower than 6th.

PC's tie keeps them three back of UMA, moves them one point closer to UVM (now only a game back), and gives them the potentially vital tb with UMA (1-0-2). However, since they lose the tb with UVM by a reciprocal 0-1-2 mark, they are effectively three points behind both for the final playoff spot.

 

[SPCSMAN]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2010-11 edition

It will be interesting to see BC/NU playing 3 times in a week. I think BC takes the Beanpot but drops at least a point this weekend.

 

[Todd]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2010-11 edition

At stake this weekend:

Each of the top four have the possibility of locking up Home Ice. If they all do it, that locks everyone else out. UNH and BC can do it just by winning, esp since BC winning knocks NU down. MC and BU would also need help by having ME and NU drop their maxes.

On the other end of the spectrum, UMA, UVM and PC could each end up with 7th as their highest reach, and UML is vulnerable to dropping out of the playoff race altogether.

In the middle, both Maine and NU could stay in the Home Ice race and pull away from the bottom four, or sink back into the race for road seeds.

This week, as the fates would have it, the top five are playing the bottom five, and nearly in order with top playing top and bottom playing bottom. Tied for 1st BC plays 6th place NU. Other #1, UNH, plays out-of-7th-by-one UVM. #3 MC plays ahead-of-8th-by-one UMA. #4 BU plays #9 PC and #5 ME faces #10 UML. If UMA and UVM flipped a point, we'd have 1v6, 1v7, 3v8, 4v9, and 5v10.

Probably the key match-up this week will be BC and NU finishing up their three-games-in-three-venues-in-six-days tour. The first of the set (in the Beanpot Final) was certainly a barn-burner. Both teams need the points from this weekend. NU is trying to keep Home Ice an option while BC is trying to keep pace with UNH and stay ahead of hard-charging Merrimack.

BU and, even moreso, Maine need to take the advantage of having weaker-on-paper opponents to make hay while the sun shines. Maine has a tough opponent (MC) next week and BU needs to keep far enough ahead of NU (currently six points) so that they aren't at risk when the two face off on the final weekend.

Since UNH has to play both games @ UVM and BC v NU was so tight on Monday, MC will be looking to continue their roll and TCB against UMA to gain ground on the top pair, before heading into what looks to be next weekend's big series when they travel to Maine.

 

[Todd]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2010-11 edition

UNH 34 - 44 [1-4]
--- Home Lock - 34 (ME) ---
BC 33 - 43 [1-5]
MC 31 - 41 [1-6]
BU 29 - 39 [1-6]
ME 24 - 34 [2-7]
--- In - 22 (PC) ---
NU 22 - 32 [3-9]
--- Home Eligible - 29 (BU) ---
UMA 15 - 25 [5-10]
UVM 14 - 24 [6-10]
PC 12 - 22 [6-10]
UML 6 - 16 [7-10]
--- Out - 14 (UVM) ---

Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
UNH - @UVM, NU/@NU, @BC/BC
BC - @NU, @UMA/UMA, UNH/@UNH
MC - UMA, @MEx2, PC/@PC
BU - @PC, UVMx2, @NU/NU
ME - @UML, MCx2, @UMAx2
NU - BC, @UNH/UNH, BU/@BU
UMA - MC, BC/@BC, MEx2
UVM - UNH, @BUx2, UMLx2
PC - BU, UML/@UML, @MC/MC
UML - ME, @PC/PC, @UVMx2

UNH's win puts them even with 5th place Maine's max. Since UNH has the H2H tb, and would be ahead of ME in any combo tie that I can see, that means that UNH has clinched a Home Ice slot.

Similarly, Maine's win combined with the losses by UVM and PC, put Maine no lower than 7th and has clinched them a playoff spot. This is because they are now ahead of PC's max outright and own the tb with UVM and would stay ahead of UVM in any multi-way tie at 24 that I can work out. That also means that UVM can't rise above 6th.

BC's tie with NU adds one to the Eagles' min and drops the Huskies' max by one. That swap puts BC out of NU's reach and no lower than 5th.

NU can climb no higher than 3rd. Since they are 1-1-1 against PC, they have not yet wrapped up a playoff spot, but their M# is only 1.

Apparently, tomorrow's game at Matthews will be 8-7 NU in OT.

MC's and BU's wins don't change their place ranges yet, although they do each move one point closer to BC and two points closer to Home Ice. As noted previously, MC already owns the tb w/ NU, but still has two left w/ ME. BU already owns the tb w/ ME, but has two left w/ NU.

Still, a win on Saturday (or an NU loss) would put MC ahead of NU's max and no lower than 5th. A MC win combined with a ME loss would lock up the Warriors' very first home playoff games in 20-plus years of D-1 play.

Given the points earned by ME and NU tonight, regardless of Saturday's outcomes, BU will have to wait until at least next weekend to clinch continuing their string of Home Ice every year since Agganis opened. Each of those series has gone three games, to boot.

By losing Friday, each of the bottom four have made their road out of the bottom four that much harder. In the case of UML, they are now one bad night of results away from being bounced from the playoffs.

 

[irishfan85]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2010-11 edition

Still, a win on Saturday (or an NU loss) would put MC ahead of NU's max and no lower than 5th. A MC win combined with a ME loss would lock up the Warriors' very first home playoff games in 20-plus years of D-1 play.

That is incorrect. Merrimack hosted BC in the Hockey East Quarterfinal series during the 1996-97 season, after finishing fifth, but Maine was ineligible for the playoffs that year. I sent you a message about it earlier on in the thread when you said the same thing. Good work though. Lot of effort put in, I'm sure.

 

[slurpees]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2010-11 edition

their string of Home Ice every year since Agganis opened. Each of those series has gone three games, to boot.

One exception to this string, in 2006 they swept UMass in two.

 

[Todd]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2010-11 edition

That is incorrect. Merrimack hosted BC in the Hockey East Quarterfinal series during the 1996-97 season, after finishing fifth, but Maine was ineligible for the playoffs that year. I sent you a message about it earlier on in the thread when you said the same thing. Good work though. Lot of effort put in, I'm sure.

One exception to this string, in 2006 they swept UMass in two.

OK...

So, I should know better than to go by memory/anecdote instead of the usual research route - even at 1 AM, that's not an excuse. Twice in three sentences, that was me just trying to get to bed.

I stand corrected. Twice.

 

[Todd]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2010-11 edition

UNH 35 - 43 [1-4]
--- Home Lock - 34 (ME) ---
MC 33 - 41 [1-5]
BC 33 - 41 [1-5]
BU 31 - 39 [1-6]
ME 26 - 34 [2-6]
NU 24 - 32 [4-6]
--- Home Eligible - 31 (BU) ---
--- In - 20 (PC) ---
UMA 15 - 23 [7-9]
UVM 15 - 23 [7-9]
PC 12 - 20 [7-10]
--- Out - 15 (UMA/UVM) ---
UML 6 - 14 [9-10]

Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
UNH - NU/@NU, @BC/BC
MC - @MEx2, PC/@PC
BC - @UMA/UMA, UNH/@UNH
BU - UVMx2, @NU/NU
ME - MCx2, @UMAx2
NU - @UNH/UNH, BU/@BU
UMA - BC/@BC, MEx2
UVM - @BUx2, UMLx2
PC - UML/@UML, @MC/MC
UML - @PC/PC, @UVMx2

Tonight's results give us a bit of shifting and clarity around the league as the post-season begins to draw into focus.

Most obviously, we have a permanent separation (this season) between the top and bottom of the conference. The bottom four are isolated from the top six.

Within the top six, UNH has already clinched Home Ice, leaving the other five to battle for the last three home spots.

Of the bottom group, the River Hawks' loss combined with the Catamounts' tie leaves UML no higher than 9th and mathematically out of the playoffs. The possibility brought up back in Post 11 - where UML would be facing the teams just ahead of them to perhaps claw their way into the final slot - is now moot. A case of "too little, too late."

That leaves UMA, UVM, and PC to fight it out for the final two playoff seeds. Two will make it and one has only four games left in their season.

At this point, UML's final impact on the season may be whether they pull either PC or UVM into the cellar with them - or if both use UML as a springboard into the post-season.

On the happier side of the ledger...

Break up the Warriors!

Merrimack continued their scorching run (eight W in a row, incl. 3 OTs - 14-1-0 since 12/30, adding another OT win) and has caught BC and moved to within two of 1st place UNH. As MC has the tb with every team in the league that they are finished with (ME and PC pending), that puts them in 2nd place and puts even more pressure on the upcoming UNH/BC series. With the UNH/NU series between now and then, and with NU having only one 60-minute loss in 2011, it's possible that both the Eagles and Wildcats could be looking up at MC by the time they face off against each other - but more about that next week.

Not only did MC close ground on UNH (three points this w/e) and BC (one pt this w/e), but BU and ME also swept their pairs and NU took the other three points from BC.

With their win tonight, NU has wrapped up a playoff spot, but with Merrimack's win, the Huskies only shot at Home Ice is now 4th.

After three tight games and two OTs this week between NU and BC resulted in a one-goal win, a one-goal loss, a tie and 15 goals for both teams, it's exhausting to think that, if the RS ended today, those two would lace up the skates to face each other again at Conte next weekend for a best two out of three. They still might do that, but in three weeks.

 

[JB]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2010-11 edition

Prediction based on nothing really, just hunch on how games are going...

1st MC (enters playoffs on 18-1 streak.)
2nd UNH (on TB, UNH goes 2-2 and BC goes 3-1)
3rd BC
4th NU (bummer they won’t be playing BC)
5th BU
6th ME
7th UVM
8th UMA

 

[CHFAN222]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2010-11 edition

Prediction based on nothing really, just hunch on how games are going...

1st MC (enters playoffs on 18-1 streak.)
2nd UNH (on TB, UNH goes 2-2 and BC goes 3-1)
3rd BC
4th NU (bummer they won’t be playing BC)
5th BU
6th ME
7th UVM
8th UMA

For BU to go to 6th that would require them to be swept in their final two weekends. No way is that going to happen. They will win one at least one versus UVM and probably split the NU series.

I also think the Maine and Merimack series will be at least a split. That goes for the UNH and NU series as well.

 

[Federal League]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2010-11 edition

Prediction based on nothing really, just hunch on how games are going...

1st MC (enters playoffs on 18-1 streak.)
2nd UNH (on TB, UNH goes 2-2 and BC goes 3-1)
3rd BC
4th NU (bummer they won’t be playing BC)
5th BU
6th ME
7th UVM
8th UMA

Just out of curiosity, you see BU only grabbing 1 of a possible 8 points down the stretch? Not saying it's impossible, but that doesn't seem likely.

 

[Todd]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2010-11 edition

Prediction based on nothing really, just hunch on how games are going...

1st MC (enters playoffs on 18-1 streak.)
2nd UNH (on TB, UNH goes 2-2 and BC goes 3-1)
3rd BC
4th NU (bummer they won’t be playing BC)
5th BU
6th ME
7th UVM
8th UMA

Mathematically impossible.

You have UNH and BC tied with UNH winning on tb, with BC going 3-1 and UNH going 2-2.

For all of that to happen:
BC and UNH split 1-1-0 (as opposed to 0-0-2);
BC sweeps UMA;
UNH splits other weekend with... NU.

If NU loses two points to UNH, their max drops to 30, which is behind BU's banked 31. Even an NU sweep of BU following UVM doing the same (@ Agganis) won't let them pass the Terriers for 4th (or anything else).

Everything else up and down the standings could still happen, but you'd have to flip NU and BU. Either that or rearrange the UNH and BC standings or results.

 

[acs64]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2010-11 edition

Mathematically impossible.

You have UNH and BC tied with UNH winning on tb, with BC going 3-1 and UNH going 2-2.

For all of that to happen:
BC and UNH split 1-1-0 (as opposed to 0-0-2);
BC sweeps UMA;
UNH splits other weekend with... NU.

If NU loses two points to UNH, their max drops to 30, which is behind BU's banked 31. Even an NU sweep of BU following UVM doing the same (@ Agganis) won't let them pass the Terriers for 4th (or anything else).

Everything else up and down the standings could still happen, but you'd have to flip NU and BU. Either that or rearrange the UNH and BC standings or results.

BC
MC
UHN
BU
ME
NU
UVM
UMA

Mathematically possible ?

 

[dmjossel]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2010-11 edition

BC
MC
UHN
BU
ME
NU
UVM
UMA

Mathematically possible ?

You can check for yourself:

http://siouxsports.com/hockey/whatif/index.php?confid=5

 

[jjmc85]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2010-11 edition

That leaves UMA, UVM, and PC to fight it out for the final two playoff seeds. Two will make it and one has only four games left in their season.

At this point, UML's final impact on the season may be whether they pull either PC or UVM into the cellar with them - or if both use UML as a springboard into the post-season.

This has to be the most miserable group of Hockey East teams ever

 

[irishfan85]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2010-11 edition

This has to be the most miserable group of Hockey East teams ever

Hockey East has been down for a few years now. I know a lot of people will counter, "but we've won the last three titles." However, just take in some games from out west. The hockey is just much better to watch. The league hasn't been very deep and unlike the late 90s and early 200s where HE had 4 teams who were always capable of winning it all nationally, the last six or so years, there have really only been 1 or 2 teams capable. The demise of Maine's program along with the inconsistency of BU has contributed to this, as well as UNH not seeming to have the talent driven teams that got them to Frozen Fours in 98, 99, 02, etc.