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Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2010-11 edition

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2010-11 edition

I also thought, and again, I could be wrong, that the top 2 teams got the preference on which day to start their quarterfinal. So if BC/UNH both wanted to start on Thursday, BU and MC would start on Friday (as the standing are today).

MC season ticket holders have been informed that any home series they host would be March 11, 12, 13 (if necessary)
 
Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2010-11 edition

MC season ticket holders have been informed that any home series they host would be March 11, 12, 13 (if necessary)

I was also informed that, but I wouldn't be sure until it actually is written in stone.
 
Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2010-11 edition

BU's tix say TBA
 
Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2010-11 edition

BC 39 - 41 [1-2]
UNH 38 - 40 [1-3]
BU 36 - 38 [2-4]
MC 35 - 37 [3-4]
--- Home Ice ---
ME 32 - 34 [5]
NU 25 - 27 [6]
UVM 17 - 19 [7-8]
--- In - 15 (PC) ---
UMA 15 - 17 [7-9]
PC 13 - 15 [8-9]
--- Out - 15 (UMA) ---
UML 10 - 12 [10]

Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
UNH - BC
BC - @UNH
MC - @PC
BU - NU
ME - @UMA
NU - @BU
UVM - UML
UMA - ME
PC - MC
UML - @UVM

Here's the simple stuff: Joining NU (6th) on the "locked into place" list is Maine at 5 and UML at 10. The Home Ice teams will be BC, UNH, BU, and MC, in some order.

Even though Maine won, to move up they not only needed to win out (which they could still do), but also needed MC to stay at or below 34 so they could be caught. MC's win puts them out of reach of Maine and draws the line between the top four seeds and the rest of the league. Like NU, Maine now cannot catch anyone in front of them and can't be caught by anyone behind.

With tonight's tie @ UVM, UML has now been left behind by the rest of the league. Still, kudos to Blaise and the 'Hawks for staging a late three-goal comeback on the road with their best case scenario being to tie for not-tenth. UVM's last minute EAG knotted things up, but still... nice effort with nothing but pride to play for.

Back to the numbers.

BC's win means that they can only be a 1 or 2 seed. Their one-point lead over their final opponent (UNH) means that a win or a tie will lock up 1st place. A loss to UNH means that the lead switches back on the only day that matters - the last one. They can't tie in the standings, so tbs are irrelevant.

UNH's loss, combined with BU's win, means that they still face the possibility of dropping to third. A win for UNH and they are 1st. A tie puts them in 2nd. A loss and a BU win puts them in 3rd on the H2H tb loss to BU (1-2-0). A loss and a BU non-win means UNH is 2nd.

BU's win keeps them one point up on MC, who has the tb (1-0-2). If BU gets at least as many points as MC on the final night, they keep their lead and avoid 4th. As noted above, a BU win and a UNH loss brings BU even with the 'Cats and up into 2nd with the tb.

Even though MC won, their only shot at 2nd was overtaking BU and catching BC. While they can still pass, or even tie, BU to move up from 4th to 3rd, they can no longer catch BC (they already couldn't catch UNH) so anything higher is out.

UVM wrapped up a playoff spot since they can no longer be caught by PC. Since they can still be tied by UMA, and the Minutemen own that tb (2-1-0), then the Catamounts don't know if they'll be 7th or 8th, but they know that they'll have hockey games on their schedule next weekend. Their magic number to clinch 7th is 1.

UMA could be as high as 7th, with a win and a UVM loss, or as low as 9th with a loss and a PC win. Any other combinations and UMA is 8th.

PC's hope for continuing their season comes down to tying UMA and utilizing their tb (1-0-2) to move from 9th to 8th. They need to win and have UMA lose or they're done.
 
Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2010-11 edition

BC 41 - 41 [1]
UNH 38 - 38 [2]
BU 36 - 36 [3]
MC 35 - 35 [4]
--- Home Ice ---
ME 33 - 33 [5]
NU 27 - 27 [6]
UVM 19 - 19 [7]
UMA 16 - 16 [8]
--- Out - 16 (UMA) ---
--- In - 15 (PC) ---
PC 15 - 15 [9]
UML 10 - 10 [10]

Remaining playoff schedules:

UMA @ BC
UVM @ UNH
NU @ BU
ME @ MC


From the What If files:

UNH's loss left them vulnerable to being overtaken by BU for the 2nd seed. Towards the end of the 2nd period, BU had a one-goal lead, but NU scored three goals over the course of the next ten minutes and BU was only able to find one goal in answer. NU wins. UNH is safe in 2nd.

BU's loss left them vulnerable to being caught and/or passed by MC for the 3rd seed (which may have been to BU's NCAA benefit), with the tb in MC's favor. Down at Schneider, after taking a one goal lead, PC watched MC bury three before the end of the first period. With their season on the line, the Friars answered with four of their own in the second and shut MC down the rest of the way. MC needed only a tie to move up, but PC wins and keeps their hopes alive for a playoff bid. BU is safe in 3rd, MC stays 4th.

In Amherst, the Minutemen needed only to avoid a two-point gain by PC (a PC win and a UMA loss) to make the playoffs and had a chance to move up to 7th over UVM. By the end of the second period, UMA's chances at moving up were slim, with UVM leading up in Burlington. More importantly, Providence had taken the lead over Merrimack while UMA trailed by a pair after suffering a three-goal first period by Maine and only digging out one of their own in the second. Hard to say if they were scoreboard watching, but with their own season now in peril, UMA scored twice in 18 seconds to even things up. A late goal gave Toot's crew a brief lead, but Maine answered back on the next shift and both teams held on to weather a tie. That point was all UMA needed to stay ahead of PC for the final slot.

In Providence, I imagine that after their victory the Friars were listening with bated breath for updates from Amherst, hoping for the Black Bears to bury one in OT and letting PC catch UMA. Instead, it stayed a tie and the Friars' season was over.

It could also be noted that with Maine taking seven of eight points on the final two weekends, they hit 33 points. After ME's sweep of MC last weekend, MC was at 33, lost the tb to ME, and was vulnerable to being caught by Maine this weekend. Had PC won both nights, that would have left Maine and Merrimack tied, Home Ice would have flipped and the Warriors would be heading to Orono rather than the Black Bears heading south to North Andover. Had PC squeaked out a tie the first night, their win on Saturday would have left the window open for Maine to get Home Ice with a win. Would that dangling carrot have added enough jump to Maine's step to get the OT goal that would have moved Maine up, PC in and UMA out? We'll never know, but it is reminiscent of the BU/NU situation in 03-04 where a late season NU run put BU in jeopardy of missing the playoffs (for the first time, IIRC). It took an OT goal by David vander Gulik at the Whitt to give BU the one-point advantage over NU that put them in the playoffs as the 8 seed. They went on to beat top-seeded BC two out of three at Conte.

That 8-over-1 upset of course called to mind the sole prior time that happened in HE - when BU had been on the other side of that equation, being taken out by Merrimack in 1998. What is rarely mentioned about that matchup is that MC squeaked in as the 8 seed by winning the tb over UMA. 1998: MC gets the last slot on the tie-breaker and takes out 1 seed BU. 2004: BU gets the last slot on an OT goal and takes out 1 seed BC. 2011: UMA holds off Maine in OT to take the 8 seed. Does BC have something to worry about?

This regular season also finishes up as one of the few times that there were no ties in the final standings (that 03-04 season being another, although that year every team was within one point of someone else and 5-9 were each one point apart). In fact, each of the prior two seasons had not one but two ties, with last year having the unprecedented five teams involved in the two ties, in part due to the league's first three-way tie in the final tally. Coincidentally, that three-way tie was for 3rd.
 
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Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2010-11 edition

thanks for all of this again this year
 
Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2010-11 edition

Speaking of ties...

Every team in Hockey East has been involved in at least one, in fact two ties. That includes UVM, who has only been in the league for six years. Also at the bottom of the frequency chart is BC, who after twenty-six years in the league has tied only twice.

UMA and MC have been involved in three ties - twice with each other ('98 for 8th, '10 for 6th). Merrimack has won all three of their ties (also '09 with PC for 9th), while UMA has lost all three of theirs (also '99 with UML for 6th) and UVM has lost both of theirs ('07 with ME for 5th and '09 with UNH for 3rd).

NU has had four ties, while UML has had four as UML plus one as Lowell.

BU, ME, UNH and PC have all been in seven ties.

Even our tie frequencies are filled with ties...

BU and Maine have tied each other four times (the most recent also included UML), which is the most frequent pairing. BU has come out on top of all four of those and is 6-1 overall. The single BU tb loss was against PC for the final Home Ice slot in 02-03.

02-03 was also the only year that had three different sets of ties and the year that BC lost their only tb (to UNH for 1st). BC would later beat ME in a tie for 2nd in 05-06.

Maine has won every tie of theirs that wasn't against a Boston school (vs UVM for 5th in 06-07, vs PC for 2nd on 00-01, and vs UML for 4th once BU had taken 3rd in 09-10). That sounds a lot like Miami-Ohio's NCAA run in recent years.

UNH has tied six different teams (Lowell, NU, PC, BU X2, BC, UVM), while PC has also tied six (NU x2, UNH, UML, ME, BU, MC). That leaves UMA as the only team to have never tied either. In fact UMA has never tied any of the teams that have tied seven times. By contrast, BU has only been in ties with the other seven-timers (ME x 4, UNH x 2, PC x 1) with the note that one of the Maine ties also included UML.

UML/Lowell has won all four of their two-way ties (UNH '86, PC '93, UMA '99, NU '03), but was third of three in the only HE 3-way tie (BU, ME, UML). In '86 and '03, those ties were for last place and in '03, it extended UML's season into the quarterfinals.

There has never been a tie for 7th.

Since leaving the seven-team setup, there have been only four years without a tie somewhere in the final standings ('94, the last year with 8; '96 and '04, the second and second-to-last years with 9; and '08). In the five years with seven teams, three of those were tieless.

(No, I am not going to delve into the impact of interleague play with the WCHA on the seven-team format.)

In the 7, 8, 9 and 10-team configurations of the league, there has been a tie for last place four times. Once at 6th (UML over UNH in '86), twice at 8th (MC over UMA in '98 and UML over NU in '03), and once at 9th (MC and PC in '09). Since the tie-breakers are applied to assign seeds, I suppose that technically MC did not beat PC for 9th in '09 because both teams were out of the playoffs. There is no 9th or 10th seed in the current format, only 9th and 10th place. To illustrate the difference: Co-champions share 1st place (and are entitled to hang a banner), but one of them is a 2nd seed.

(Historical Note: In '97, UNH and BU were co-champs with BU getting the 1 seed and UNH the 2nd. UNH hung a banner for the RS title, but BU didn't because they didn't hang RS banners at the time. That resulted in a situation where the top seed didn't hang a banner, but the 2nd seed did. Now most teams hang group banners for RS titles and BU certainly lists 1997 on theirs.)

Each of the places that have been available for ties for the entire history of the league (1st through 6th) have had exactly three ties at their level, with the exception of five ties for 2nd place, which is the most.

Every tie for 4th has involved PC. (over UNH in '91, loss to UML in '93, over BU in '03).

Until '09, the only tie for 3rd was all the way back in the final year of the league's original seven-team alignment ('89: NU over PC). In '09 and '10, five different teams tied for 3rd place ('09: UNH over UVM, '10: BU over ME over UML).

Perhaps not surprisingly, all three ties for 1st were among the so-called "Big Four" and all four were involved ('95: BU over ME, '97: BU over UNH, '03: UNH over BC).

As for the five ties for second, nine of the ten slots have been occupied by the "Big Four" and Maine has been involved four times - with the one ME absence being in the consecutive years where each of the Big Four was involved once ('92: BU over ME, '01: ME over PC, '02: BU over ME, '05: BU over UNH, '06: BC over ME).

BC has never tied below 2nd, while UMA and MC have never tied above 6th.

Every BU tie has had involved Home Ice (1st x 2, 2nd x 3, 3rd and 4th). For the lower two, Home Ice was at risk, with BU avoiding 5th by topping the 3-way for 3rd and losing the 4th seed as previously mentioned.

Indicative of their long-term success, Maine's seven ties were for 1st, 2nd x 4, 3rd and 5th. Perhaps illustrating how PC's fortunes have changed over the years, their ties were for 3rd, 4th, 4th, ... 5th, 2nd, 4th, ... and 9th. ('89, '91, '93, ... '00, '01, '03, ... '09, respectively).
 
Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2010-11 edition

For those still reading the thread, later in the week I'll try to take a look at how the playoff match-ups are flavored by what happened earlier in the season.
 
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