Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2010-11 edition

[dmjossel]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2010-11 edition

Hockey East has been down for a few years now. I know a lot of people will counter, "but we've won the last three titles." However, just take in some games from out west. The hockey is just much better to watch. The league hasn't been very deep and unlike the late 90s and early 200s where HE had 4 teams who were always capable of winning it all nationally, the last six or so years, there have really only been 1 or 2 teams capable. The demise of Maine's program along with the inconsistency of BU has contributed to this, as well as UNH not seeming to have the talent driven teams that got them to Frozen Fours in 98, 99, 02, etc.

Actually I'd argue that the league was down from 2005-2007 but has been on the upswing since then. In those years their record against OOC teams was only a bit above .500, and three of four years was below .500 against the CCHA. In the last two seasons the only losing record is this year, against the WCHA (a .357 mark).

I'd say what the league has been lacking is depth. Last season there were two teams head and shoulders above the rest (BC and UNH) and this season has been similar, although MC and BU are closer to them than last year. Last year, places #3-9 were separated only by four points, and the third place team was only one game over .500.

By contrast, this year HE has three teams over .700 (BC, MC and UNH) and BU is over .600. The big dropoff is between #6 NU and #7 Amherst. It's the depth at the bottom that has fallen off, with this year's bad teams being quite a bit worse than last year's. Only nine points separate places #1-6, but then there's another 9 point gap between #6 and #7.

The league's "Big Four" of BC, BU, UNH and Maine may be gone for good, with two of those spots opening up for different teams each year.

Can Maine and BU return to reloading instead of rebuilding? Can MC prove this season isn't a fluke? Can Northeastern turn its greatly improved play in the past couple of weeks into progress in the standings next season and make a bid for their program to be among the top four?

 

[Todd]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2010-11 edition

Last year, places #3-9 were separated only by four points, and the third place team was only one game over .500.

Plus, it was the #8 seed that got HE's third at large bid - in part because they faced the top two seeds four times (winning twice) in the HE playoffs, elevating their RPI.

This year, BC, MC and UNH look to be ticketed for the NCAAs. For a 4th team to make it, BU has the best chance.

Like UVM last year, BU's NCAA fate may similarly be affected by the identity of their QF opponent, due to the RPI/TUC record impact of the two or three extra games that they will play in that round. Obviously, just like everyone else, to the extent that the Terriers could have gone undefeated or could win the league autobid, their fate was/is in their own hands. That said, the further they rise in the HE rankings, the worse the RPI quality of their QF opponent is likely to be and the less likely the opponent would be a TUC. Therefore, ironically, the higher a seed BU is in the HE playoffs, on some level the less likely they are to qualify for the NCAAs without winning the title - their only sure way in.

To the extent that Maine, or NU (who is not even a TUC yet), can improve their PWR lot, they would be helped by facing tougher QF opponents as well.

It's possible that BU and ME could improve their PWR lots to the point that they could face each other in the HE 4v5 QFs and the winner might make the NCAAs by virtue of those QF wins, or only need a semifinal win with a loss against the right opponent in the finals to get in.

 

[Todd]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2010-11 edition

BC
MC
UHN
BU
ME
NU
UVM
UMA

Mathematically possible ?

Yes, with a wide range of result sets to get there.

 

[Sean Pickett]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2010-11 edition

The league's "Big Four" of BC, BU, UNH and Maine may be gone for good, with two of those spots opening up for different teams each year.

The league’s "Big Four" have finished 1-4 only four times in 26 seasons and only once before 2005. On the other hand the "Big Four" have taken only 2 of the top 4 spots just 6 times and only once (2009) since 1996. The other 16 seasons* the "Big Four" have taken 3 of the top four spots and it is likely that will happen again this season. Providence, Lowell and Northeastern all used to make appearances in the top 4, but they have dropped back and the teams that replaced them, UMass and then Vermont, have also dropped back. I see no reason to think that the "Big Four" are gone for good, but instead just a different team taking the 4th home ice slot.

Sean

* This includes Maine’s 4th place finish in 1997.

 

[unh1982]

The league’s "Big Four" have finished 1-4 only four times in 26 seasons and only once before 2005. On the other hand the "Big Four" have taken only 2 of the top 4 spots just 6 times and only once (2009) since 1996. The other 16 seasons* the "Big Four" have taken 3 of the top four spots and it is likely that will happen again this season. Providence, Lowell and Northeastern all used to make appearances in the top 4, but they have dropped back and the teams that replaced them, UMass and then Vermont, have also dropped back. I see no reason to think that the "Big Four" are gone for good, but instead just a different team taking the 4th home ice slot.

Sean

* This includes Maine’s 4th place finish in 1997.

Nice work, not to show favoritism to unh but in the last 15 years I believe they have secured home ice, which leads me to believe they have been one of those teams in top 4.

 

[Nick Papagiorgio]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2010-11 edition

The league's "Big Four" of BC, BU, UNH and Maine may be gone for good, with two of those spots opening up for different teams each year.

The Big Four has been done as a group of 4 for a while. But generally speaking BC, BU, and UNH aren't going anywhere and if they do it won't be far or for too long.

The Big Four is dead because Maine is dead and has turned into Lake Superior State. The Big Three are alive and well. I really thought UVM would build upon everything and get up to that 4th spot consistently with Maine dead in the water.

Boy were those years from 1999 to about 2003 fun! Those were 2-3 legit title contenders every single year there for a while. Now it seems like BC is the lone title contender and BU took their spot for one year.

 

[irishfan85]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2010-11 edition

The Big Four has been done as a group of 4 for a while. But generally speaking BC, BU, and UNH aren't going anywhere and if they do it won't be far or for too long.

The Big Four is dead because Maine is dead and has turned into Lake Superior State. The Big Three are alive and well. I really thought UVM would build upon everything and get up to that 4th spot consistently with Maine dead in the water.

Boy were those years from 1999 to about 2003 fun! Those were 2-3 legit title contenders every single year there for a while. Now it seems like BC is the lone title contender and BU took their spot for one year.

Very true. Since UNH's last FF appearance, the league has lacked multiple true title contenders. From 1998-2003, the league had two or more NCAA title contenders. Since then, only BC has really been a contender except for 2009 when BU won it all.

 

[Sean Pickett]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2010-11 edition

Nice work, not to show favoritism to unh but in the last 15 years I believe they have secured home ice, which leads me to believe they have been one of those teams in top 4.

Yes, including this season UNH has finished in top four 15 straight and 19 out of 20, making them the most consistant team in Hockey East the past two decades.

Sean

 

[slurpees]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2010-11 edition

Very true. Since UNH's last FF appearance, the league has lacked multiple true title contenders. From 1998-2003, the league had two or more NCAA title contenders. Since then, only BC has really been a contender except for 2009 when BU won it all.

BU was also a title contender in 2006, don't forget. While they ran into the last team in the world they wanted to play, IIRC they were the number one overall seed entering the tournament, and held the number one ranking more than once throughout the latter half of the season. So going into that NCAA tournament, they were absolutely a title contender.

 

[Sean Pickett]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2010-11 edition

The Big Four is dead because Maine is dead and has turned into Lake Superior State. The Big Three are alive and well. I really thought UVM would build upon everything and get up to that 4th spot consistently with Maine dead in the water.

Maine missed a top 4 finish three straight seasons (2007-09) before returning last season. Even if Maine misses a top 4 finish this season that is still not as bad as BC's six straight seasons out of the top four in the nineties (1992-97).

Sean

 

[Chickens@NU]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2010-11 edition

The Big Four has been done as a group of 4 for a while. But generally speaking BC, BU, and UNH aren't going anywhere and if they do it won't be far or for too long.

The Big Four is dead because Maine is dead and has turned into Lake Superior State. The Big Three are alive and well. I really thought UVM would build upon everything and get up to that 4th spot consistently with Maine dead in the water.

Boy were those years from 1999 to about 2003 fun! Those were 2-3 legit title contenders every single year there for a while. Now it seems like BC is the lone title contender and BU took their spot for one year.

Yeah, Maine is dead. Maine had two down years, won 19 games last year, and has turned in LSSU. That makes a lot of sense. The Lakers have had only 4 winning seasons since Jeff Jackson left. I don't see that as a good comparison.

 

[Nick Papagiorgio]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2010-11 edition

Yeah, Maine is dead. :rollseyes: Maine had two down years, won 19 games last year, and has turned in LSSU. That makes a lot of sense. The Lakers have had only 4 winning seasons since Jeff Jackson left. I don't see trhat as a good comparison.

Tell me you're kidding. School in the middle of nowhere. Subpar facilities. Won some titles with a one-of-a-kind coach. On the road to nowhere now that the coach is gone.

Uhuh, NO PARALLELS there!

- 07-08. No NCAAs. 13-18-3
- 08-09. No NCAAs. 13-22-4
- 09-10. No NCAAs. 19-17-3. A whopping 2 games over .500. But they had a moral victory over BC in the HE finals and got home ice and just barely beat UML in Orono in 3 games!!!!
- 10-11... almost absolutely no chance at the NCAAs.

Durrrrr... what's a TREND?! Yea, that program is alive and well.

Well... I guess it depends on how you define dead if you want to disagree. I mean, surely Maine has as good of a chance as UML, UMA, UVM, NU, PC, and Merrimack to get the last home ice spot in any given season assuming BC, BU, and UNH are almost always going to get home ice. But for Maine hockey, that's not good enough. Home ice isn't necessarily good enough to get an NCAA bid anymore. In the real strong years of HE it probably would have been.

 

[walrus]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2010-11 edition

Yeah, Maine is dead. Maine had two down years, won 19 games last year, and has turned in LSSU. That makes a lot of sense. The Lakers have had only 4 winning seasons since Jeff Jackson left. I don't see that as a good comparison.

As long as Timmay is coach, Maine is dead, the longer Timmay is there the less chance for them to get out of the funk they are in. Let me clue you in, he SUCKS. I've been watching Maine hockey for a long time, you've never seen softer teams then whats been put on the ice the last 4 years. This is the first year talent is apparent, buts it been squandered by lackadaisical play

 

[Terrier520]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2010-11 edition

As long as Timmay is coach, Maine is dead, the longer Timmay is there the less chance for them to get out of the funk they are in. Let me clue you in, he SUCKS. I've been watching Maine hockey for a long time, you've never seen softer teams then whats been put on the ice the last 4 years. This is the first year talent is apparent, buts it been squandered by lackadaisical play

So you don't think he should be on the best coaches list?

 

[Todd]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2010-11 edition

We could have a number of seeds locked in this weekend - or most could stay up for grabs.

Rather than go through all of the permutations heading into tonight's games, I'll do a review after we're done to limit the permutations.

Simply stated, any of the bottom six slots could, and likely will, be fixed after weekend's end. Some of the slots at the top could be sewn up as well, but that's a slimmer chance.

I'll be back with specifics in a few hours...

 

[Todd]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2010-11 edition

UNH 36 - 42 [1-4]
BC 35 - 41 [1-4]
--- Home Lock - 34 (ME) ---
MC 33 - 39 [1-5]
BU 32 - 38 [1-5]
ME 28 - 34 [3-6]
--- Home Eligible - 32 (BU) ---
NU 25 - 31 [5-6]
--- In - 19 (PC) ---
UVM 16 - 22 [7-9]
UMA 15 - 21 [7-9]
PC 13 - 19 [7-10]
--- Out - 15 (UMA) ---
UML 7 - 13 [9-10]

Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
UNH - @NU, @BC/BC
BC - UMA, UNH/@UNH
MC - @ME, PC/@PC
BU - UVM, @NU/NU
ME - MC, @UMAx2
NU - UNH, BU/@BU
UVM - @BU, UMLx2
UMA - @BC, MEx2
PC - @UML, @MC/MC
UML - PC, @UVMx2

Lots of range movement after the weekend’s first games.

BC’s win puts them out of reach of Maine, so BC has wrapped up Home Ice. That also means that Maine can finish no higher than third.

By tying NU, UNH keeps a one-point margin over the Eagles for the top seed. Unless exactly one of UNH or BC ties their opponent tonight, these two will be an odd number of points apart going into their final weekend face off. If that is the case, none of the tbs between these two will matter, as two teams going head-to-head in a 2-1-0 points system can’t make up an odd number of points. The same is not true of BU and MC, for example, because they’re not playing each other.

Speaking of tbs that won’t matter, that UNH/NU tie, combined with the BU/UVM tie, means that NU can no longer catch BU, even with a sweep on the final weekend to take the season series. That drops NU from Home Ice contention and leaves a five-way battle for the top four seeds.

Since UNH and BC know that they’ll be home, but are not yet sure of their seed, it really comes down to a three-way race for the final two home slots between MC, BU and ME. Since Northeastern could still catch Maine, it’s not a guarantee that the loser of that three-way contest will be fifth, but since that loser will be either fifth or sixth, we know that odds are they will face one of the other two in the quarterfinals (either BC or UNH could still be the opponent).

If Maine were to lose tonight, that would drop their max to 32. Since BU already has the BU/ME tb, and 32 points, we’d have the four home teams (UNH, BC, MC, BU), seeds yet TBD. The same would be true with a Maine/Merrimack tie and a BU tie (ME max 33, BU min 33, MC min 34). A Maine win, however, would still leave the four teams in flux with a ME max of 34 and MC holding at 33 min. A BU win, regardless of the ME/MC result, would give the Terriers Home Ice.

Going into the weekend, MC was looking solid for at least 2nd place, if they could maintain through this weekend and let BC and UNH knock each other off next weekend. The loss last night, while the rest of the league except UMA earned points, radically changes that position. Unless Saturday’s results approach a mirror image of Friday’s, then Merrimack is going to need some sweeps or combination of near-sweeps next weekend to move up from third.

Speaking of moving up, BU’s current max of 38 gives them just enough wiggle room to still be able to end up a 1 seed. Since MC’s results are independent of BU, UNH and BC for the rest of the RS, for the sake of preliminary math, assume they lose enough to not factor in. For BU to hit their max, they must win the next three. With UNH and BC playing each other for two after tonight, at least one of them must also hit 38 points. A split would give UNH 38 and BC 37. BU owns the UNH tb, so they would be the #1 if they won out. If UNH and BC don’t split, then either UNH has more than 38, leaving BU 2nd at best, or BC has 38+.

In a two-way tie w/ BU, BC wins the tb. Considering that most season series are not sweeps and that BC has the fewest ties (which would lead to having the most wins in a points-tied situation), it is likely that BC’s season sweep of BU (Beanpot win irrelevant here) would give them the first tiebreaker in a multi-team tie that includes BU, and probably the second if necessary. Adding MC back into the mix, MC wins the tbs with all three of the other teams that could reach 38. All of that leaves BU essentially one scenario where they could be #1 – a two-way tie with UNH at 38.

If BC and/or UNH get points tonight, that would move up their collective minimum and leave BU out of the running for first. Even a BC or UNH tie plus UNH or BC loss would mean that both teams would hit 38+, costing BU the tb and the 1 seed. The same would be true of BU not winning out. So for BU, anything other than a BU win with UNH and BC losing tonight means no #1 for the Terriers. If that trifecta hits, then a BU win next Friday would leave them in contention heading into next Saturday, since any outcome in the UNH/BC game that night would leave that series still splittable by having a reciprocal result on Saturday.

With MC holding those tbs, their margin is a little wider than BU’s, but their current max of 39 would fall below the collective min (40) of UNH and BC that would result from both of the top two winning tonight. If MC were to tie tonight, that would drop their max to 38 and leave them in the same position as BU above, but with tbs in their favor. A MC loss drops their max to 37, behind the current 38-point collective max of the top two, and out of the running for 1st.

Since, ME holds the tb w/ NU, any 3-point M# combination tonight in Maine’s favor would lock NU into the 6th seed.

In the bottom four, PC loses the tb w/ UVM, so there is a similar M# of 3 for UVM to lock up a playoff spot. PC owns the tb with UMA, so even a PC loss and a UMA win tonight wouldn’t eliminate PC altogether or, hence, put UMA in the playoffs.

UML is already not playing beyond next weekend, but has no margin for avoiding the basement. With a max of 13 compared to PC’s min of 13, they’d need to win out and have PC lose out in order to have the pride of not finishing dead last. In that situation, the season series, and tb, would go to UML (2-0-1) based on the required win tonight.

Since so many things are so close, tonight’s results could have even more impact than last night’s.

Back in a few hours…

 

[Todd]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2010-11 edition

UNH 38 - 42 [1-3]
BC 37 - 41 [1-4]
--- Home Lock - 34 (BU/MC/ME) ---
BU 34 - 38 [2-5]
MC 33 - 37 [2-5]
ME 30 - 34 [3-5]
--- Home Eligible - 34 (BU) ---
NU 25 - 29 [6]
--- In - 19 (PC) ---
UVM 16 - 20 [7-9]
UMA 15 - 19 [7-9]
PC 13 - 17 [7-10]
--- Out - 15 (UMA) ---
UML 9 - 13 [9-10]

Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
UNH - @BC/BC
BC - UNH/@UNH
MC - PC/@PC
BU - @NU/NU
ME - @UMAx2
NU - BU/@BU
UVM - UMLx2
UMA - MEx2
PC - @MC/MC
UML - @UVMx2

The simplest outcome of Saturday’s results is that NU is going to be the 6 seed. They can’t catch anyone ahead of them and can’t be caught by anyone behind them.

Victories by UNH and BC bring their collective minimum to 40. That eliminates everyone else from the top slot. However, that does not mean that these are the top two.

A BC sweep of UNH with a BU sweep of NU would leave UNH third, behind BC on points and losing the tb to BU for second. Similarly, BC could be swept by top seed UNH, be passed by a sweeping BU for second, lose the tb to a sweeping MC for third and end up a fourth seed. If BC is swept but only one of the BU or MC sweeps happens, then BC would be third.

BU’s situation is a little trickier to unravel than previously described. BU cannot be passed by current 5th Maine, but only tied. If BU gains a point or Maine doesn’t, BU will have Home Ice. In a two-way tie with Maine, BU has the H2H tb and would be the higher seed. Whether for 3rd and 4th or 4th and 5th, getting the higher seed means BU would have Home Ice. In a two-way tie with MC, BU would lose, but since that two-way tie couldn’t be behind Maine, that tie would be for 3rd and 4th, so BU would still have Home Ice.

So why don’t I have BU clinching Home Ice right now? The potential for a three-way tie with MC and ME.

We found out last season that the league was actually uncertain how they would break such ties as they had changed their interpretation from prior seasons, even though the text of the policy had not changed. They were themselves unaware that they had shifted from that precedent until I emailed them about it last year, but Commissioner Bertagna also mentioned it during a Hockey East broadcast earlier this season.

The part of the policy that is open to interpretation is as follows: “If more than two teams finish in a tie, the same criteria will be applied to reduce the number of teams tied, and then the process will commence again.” The problem is that it doesn’t specify how to reduce that number. As a reminder of what we discovered last season, all prior years had them excluding from the bottom up, but last year they began including from the top down. I’ll go into this in more detail if it looks like it still might happen after next Friday.

Getting back to the BU/MC/ME tie, that could now only happen at 34 points. For the H2H2H records, MC and ME would be 2-2-2 and BU would be the rare 1-1-4. All of those still work out to be .500, so there’s no advantage there. The second tb would be number of wins in conference play. In this scenario, MC and ME would have identical 15-8-4 records, while BU would be 14-7-6. It seems logical to me that that would then make BU the bottom of the three (5th seed). Then they’d start over again at the top to break the MC/ME tie with the H2H in ME’s favor after this weekend’s sweep. ME 3, MC 4, BU 5. Given last year’s confusion, I wouldn’t stake my life on it, but I would place enough doubt on BU clinching Home Ice yet that I’ll leave them below the line for now. That’s also why I have Maine’s range still as high as 3.

MC could be as high as second (see the BC-in-third scenario above) or drop below Maine at 33 or 34 and into fifth.

The bottom four haven’t changed since UML kept their max by beating PC (and taking the tb) while UVM and UMA also lost. In other words, 7-9 stayed in place while #10 kept reaching 9th still in play. PC could still pass either or both of UVM and UMA and the latter pair could swap positions, leaving the seeding of the bottom four as uncertain as it was before the weekend started.

 

[Todd]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2010-11 edition

Interesting...

The quoted statement in the prior post comes from the bottom of the league's Standings page, and is the text as it has been historically: “If more than two teams finish in a tie, the same criteria will be applied to reduce the number of teams tied, and then the process will commence again.”

Checking the league's PDF press release, they have added new language: "If more than two teams finish in a tie, the same criteria will be applied to reduce the number of teams tied from the top, and then the process will commence again." My emphasis added to highlight the difference.

That is a little clearer in that now they are stating that they're essentially trying to reward the best team, then go the the next best, and so on - as opposed to prior years where they threw teams out from the bottom. That said, it still doesn't delineate what to do if a sub-group of multiple teams at the top of a group are tied after the first round of tie-breaking, as we would have this year.

Since BU is still listed by the league as not having clinched Home Ice, it could be determined by the scenario I listed before (drop BU, break MC/ME), or it could be that they look to break the tie at the top between MC and ME first, pick ME, then start over again with MC v BU. As it happens, the end result is still ME 3 / MC 4 / BU 5, but there are situations, one of which occurred last year, where there is a significant difference in seeding depending on whether the differentiation starts at the top or the bottom.

For example, imagine that MC and ME had split this weekend, but MC had lost a different HE game elsewhere in the season. The teams would have the same overall records at 34 points as previously mentioned, but MC would instead own the tb w/ ME.

As before, if the 2nd tb drops BU, then MC/ME tb is applied in MC's favor, we'd have MC / ME / BU. If, however, the MC/ME tb was applied first to place MC at the top, then ME and BU start over, the result would be MC / BU / ME. In this twist, it's actually the difference in outcome between MC and ME that results in BU moving up. BU's own record doesn't change in this scenario, but their seed improves.

One such arrangement last year actually had three different alignments of teams in a three-way tie depending on how the league chose to break the ties - or, more accurately, how they chose to interpret the original text. As it turned out, perhaps thankfully, that scenario never played out in reality. One of those teams (NU), however, did end up missing the playoffs and a second (UVM) wound up upsetting the top seed and earned an NCAA bid utilizing the added schedule strength earned by their HE playoff run. It would have been uncomfortable to have had that result come down to an unclear process.

 

[BC/HE]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2010-11 edition

Todd, I believe the three way tiebreaker does not start over when one is eliminated. Once Merrimack and Maine are left they would go on to the next step which is record against the first place team. Merrimack wins that over Maine no matter who gets first. Maine then wins a tiebreaker over BU by number of wins. That is why BU can finish 5th.

 

[Federal League]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2010-11 edition

Getting back to the BU/MC/ME tie, that could now only happen at 34 points. For the H2H2H records, MC and ME would be 2-2-2 and BU would be the rare 1-1-4. All of those still work out to be .500, so there’s no advantage there. The second tb would be number of wins in conference play. In this scenario, MC and ME would have identical 15-8-4 records, while BU would be 14-7-6. It seems logical to me that that would then make BU the bottom of the three (5th seed). Then they’d start over again at the top to break the MC/ME tie with the H2H in ME’s favor after this weekend’s sweep. ME 3, MC 4, BU 5. Given last year’s confusion, I wouldn’t stake my life on it, but I would place enough doubt on BU clinching Home Ice yet that I’ll leave them below the line for now. That’s also why I have Maine’s range still as high as 3.

I talked to someone at BU who ran this scenario by the Hockey East offices, and they said this is how it would be broken.

Todd, I believe the three way tiebreaker does not start over when one is eliminated. Once Merrimack and Maine are left they would go on to the next step which is record against the first place team. Merrimack wins that over Maine no matter who gets first. Maine then wins a tiebreaker over BU by number of wins. That is why BU can finish 5th.

No. See above.