I'll highlight the numerous qualifiers contained in this post, and in the quoted excerpts. Qualifiers indicate the writer/author lacks certainty on what they're saying. There are over a dozen dotted throughout the content, as highlighted below. I'll let you all reach your own conclusions ...
Also ... it's always fun when folks from halfway across the country try to tell us what happened in our own back yard (in my case, New Hampshire). Yes, as a precautionary measure, hockey was paused for two (2) weeks in mid-October, and has resumed for over a month since then. "Chaos" and "long lines" (oh, the horror!!) has given way to resumption with the testing requirement. Knowing many families and their kids involved in that process, I think "temporary inconvenience" is a better description of what they experienced, as opposed to the exaggerated "chaos" that feeds the alarmist narrative.
New Hampshire rinks reopen with added COVID-19 rules (concordmonitor.com)
Lastly, for what it's worth, here is the current data on all things COVID-19 in New Hampshire:
case-summary.pdf (nh.gov)
Some of the key NH data points:
* Total COVID deaths to date: 552
* Total deaths LTC settings: 447 (81%)
* Total deaths 80+ yrs. old: 363 (65.8%)
* Total deaths 70+ yrs. old: 490 (88.8%)
An interesting factoid pulled from that data which highlights just how deadly this can be for folks 80+ years old and in LTC settings is that with the 363 deaths at that age, there have "only" been 193 hospitalizations. Obviously, there are many of the LTC patients who are dying
in situ which (to be fair, if not admittedly somewhat callous) is not too unexpected a result when the average length of LTC stay from admission to death is roughly 1.5-2.0 years. LTC is NOT intended to be a brief recuperative stay at Sandals or Club Med, let's be honest. Hospitalizations exceed deaths at all other age levels, increasingly so as the age level drops. Overall, the idea that COVID-19 would be problematic to LTC elderly and those with compromised immunity is pretty much what the expectation has always been from the outset.
Looking further down the chart, as you would expect, things tail off significantly afterwards:
* Total deaths 60-69 yrs. old: 43 (7.8%)
* Total deaths 40-59 yrs. old: 18 (3.3%)
* Total deaths 39 y.o. & under: 1 (0.2%)
FWIW I know from a family member working in the HC industry that the 20-something death was of a highly-compromised individual. This is not to downplay the death of a young person, but merely to point out the person was not a typical 20-something with a standard "healthy adult" profile. I think we all know that if healthy young people were dying from this at any level of frequency, it would be front-page news in every sense (and legitimately so). Again, for purposes of comparison, here is what the CDC says about the profile of the "Spanish Flu" pandemic (1918-1919) and how legitimately, terrifyingly different it is from what we're faced with today:
1918 Pandemic (H1N1 virus) | Pandemic Influenza (Flu) | CDC
"Mortality was high in people younger than 5 years old, 20-40 years old, and 65 years and older. The high mortality in healthy people, including those in the 20-40 year age group, was a unique feature of this pandemic."
Other real-world comparisons (to provide some sense of context) include this data:
147 - NH motor vehicle fatalities in 2018
3-5 - annual average of NH boating fatalities
2-3 - annual average of NH aviation fatalities
So ... there is speculation, and there are facts and data. I resist the former, and rely on the latter.
My apologies to everyone else for gumming up discussion of the latest needless postponements ...
OK Chuck....I'm going to give you legitimate credit for at least responding in a genuine way. And -- no BS, I mean this with all sincerity -- your points in regards to the nuance of the language involved in the Post article about the
possible connections regarding how unique hockey might be in terms of how it might be more challenging to play and avoid legitimate spread, are valid in regards to the lack of certainty to those possible connections. However, as I'm sure you're aware because I honestly believe you to be a smart individual, sometimes "cases" are "won" on "evidence" that is completely circumstantial. This isn't one or two different state level health commissioners/directors making semi-blind "guesses" about hockey being unique. It's experts in literally
every state where hockey is played in significant numbers. It's also being viewed this way by some of Canada's top scientists and health experts. The point being, even though we haven't quite established definitive, scientific connections to the idea that hockey is much riskier to play than other sports in regards to spread/infections, there is definitely a preponderance of evidence pointing to it.
And the reality is, despite your and many others' protestations on the Right about how "often" the "experts" have changed their recommendations or, the modelers have been "off" in some of their predictions since Covid really got going in February, this IS a
NOVEL VIRUS... I know you know what that means Chuck. It's a brand new virus that even the top scientists and doctors in the world who have dealt with these types of things their entire professional careers, are still wrapping their heads and hands around. Meaning... yes, even these legitimate, world renowned experts are going to be "off" occasionally. Recommendations change because the knowledge around and about the virus does. It's pretty basic common sense actually. But again, you already know this. But for you and Jeb and J.D. and others, this is no longer about actual science or facts. It's about the reality that you chose to tie your political horse to the hitching post known as Donald J. Trump.
Unfortunately, for you and others on the political "Right", Trump chose to make this political because in his small, and unqualified mind (and most of you acknowledge he's completely out of his league in that position), he was convinced that his best (and possibly only) path to re-election was a strong economy. And, he also knew that if he accepted the advice of the legitimate scientists and doctors (not the Scott Atlas types) about keeping the country in "lockdown" mode for more than a couple of weeks, the economy was certainly going to take a major hit. So, Trump made that political calculation regarding his response to the biggest national health crisis in a hundred years, versus upholding his most important part of his oath to the country -- ensuring the safety and health of it's citizens. Even more unfortunately for "your side", he didn't ever have "the best people" advising him -- Jerod, Ivanka, Stephen Miller, Larry Kudlow and others are as much out of their league as Trump himself is -- especially by the time Covid hit as all of the few qualified people had jumped overboard of the sinking S.S. Trump.
You and Jeb and others, keep pointing to how few deaths there are in the younger age groups. No one, literally
no one is debating that point. However, there is actual science based evidence regarding post-infection myocarditis, lung scarring, and other maladies to young people, even athletes and even those who were asymptomatic. You say that you resist "speculation" and "rely" on "facts and data". We actually agree on that completely. The problem is, in order to support your political world-view, you choose to only rely on
some of the facts and data, versus
all of the facts and data.
And Jeb... first, regarding the asymptomatic referee who infected up to 400 others...I'm curious, have you spoken with that referee or those in the medical community in that area who performed his/her test? Or those who did the actual contact tracing? Because unless you have, I'm sorry but, I'm going to take the word of a reporter from one of the most respected papers in the world who likely actually spoke to someone in the Maine Department of Health, versus you.
Next, you're right Jeb...lockdowns/stay at home orders don't "eliminate" the virus. You know what's funny about that statement? Literally no one advocating more conservative approaches claims that they do "eliminate" the virus. What those strategies (along with significant "buy in" to masking and social distancing) do accomplish, is to reduce overall infections, which in turn reduces hospitalizations, which in turn reduces unnecessary (and preventable) deaths.
As for the study you linked to that hypothesizes that myocarditis might not be as prevalent as originally suspected in post-infection situations... Ummmm, Chuck just argued against my Washington Post article by highlighting the number of
qualifiers that supposedly show a lack of certainty about what the author is presenting. Yet, in the article you linked, the first paragraph states:
"A study conducted by Richard Vander Heide, MD, PhD, Professor and Director of Pathology Research at LSU Health New Orleans School of Medicine, and Marc Halushka, MD, PhD, Professor of Pathology at Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, suggests myocarditis caused by Covid-19
may be a relatively rare occurance." Weird...sounds like the exact same type of "qualifier" Chuck was critical from the Post article.
I'm confused Jeb. Chuck says we aren't allowed to use articles that use those types of non-definitive language or phrasing... (rolls eyes). Shocking...you two (OK, at least you) are talking out of both sides of your mouth again. Further down the article they state:
"Although it is clear that Covid-19 impacts the heart and blood vessels, to date, it has been difficult to know how reproducible any changes are due to the relatively small sample size of the autopsy series," notes Dr. Vander Heide. "Even a low myocarditis rate of 1.4% would predict hundreds of thousands of worldwide cases of myocarditis in severe Covid-19 due to the enormous numbers of infected individuals. Low rates of myocarditis do not indicate that individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 are not having cardiovascular problems, but rather those complications are likely due to other stressors such as endothelial cell activation, cytokine storms, or electrolyte imbalances."
Please notice Jeb that the authors are NOT stating that the negative effects on the cardiovascular system aren't significant, or won't affect those afflicted in the future in a substantive manner. They're simply saying that those issues probably aren't as attributable to myocarditis as originally suspected. Again, and as I stated previously, this "change" in perspective is a normal part of the process of how our understanding of a virus such as this evolves as more studies are conducted and, therefore, better information is developed. And now,
YOU are doing the same thing you criticize us for -- using the changes and improvement in information and understanding to try and support your argument. (rolls eyes...again)
Finally, I'm currently sitting in my hotel room in a city far from my home after being involved in Div. I men's games this weekend. Meaning...I'm NOT cowering in my basement as you often assume. But hey, you keep being you Jeb.