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Global War on Terror Version 7 - The Nightmare that Threatens the World!!!

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Re: Global War on Terror Version 7 - The Nightmare that Threatens the World!!!

Kepler said:
In other words, a person who keeps cranking out the same old lame analogy, decade after decade, despite its lack of relevance to each new situation, learns nothing, and hence is doomed to never advance past the first trial state of a barbarian or a child.
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Exactly.
 
Re: Global War on Terror Version 7 - The Nightmare that Threatens the World!!!

joecct said:
Pat - take the Iran deal. It's good for business

http://m.townhall.com/columnists/patbuchanan/2015/07/17/the-gops-iran-dilemma-n2026551
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He's correct. Iran has no reason to assure itself of complete destruction by lobbing a nuke at Israel. This deal as constituted is a win-win, and one has to wonder if we'd done the same thing in Iraq 12 years ago how different the Middle East would look right now.
 
Re: Global War on Terror Version 7 - The Nightmare that Threatens the World!!!

I have got to be in a very small minority of people who don't care one way or another about the Iran nuke deal. I seriously doubt Iran was ever going to nuke Israel or anyone else anyway whether or not they actually developed a bomb that worked.

We've seen some less than savory nations hold nuclear weapons now for decades and no one has had the guts or stupidity to use them since we did 70 years ago. The nuclear war that could have been fought between us and the Soviets, or us and the Chinese, the Chinese and the Russians, or us and the French could have ended the world. Hundreds -- if not thousands -- of thermonuclear bombs might have been used. The consequences would have been horrendous and would have been felt for decades, or worse. 20th century society may have regressed 100s of years.

In the infinitesimally small likelihood a rogue state detonates a crude nuclear weapon it would be a one shot deal and that nation would be wiped off the face of the Earth, hopefully. I also think if some stateless rogue actor was going to do it, it would have been done already. It took Al Qaeda years to plan 9-11 and since then they have not struck the U.S. in a massive way. Don't you think if they could have used a nuke they would have. And coming out of the Soviet break up, loose nukes were supposedly a dime a dozen. To me this is mostly political posturing led by a U.S. political system that is so flawed I almost wish someone would develop the bomb because I know a good place to use it. One side tries to do "something" to make it look like they are accomplishing something for their oh-so-important legacy, and the other side hates it regardless of what it does or does not do simply because they are the other side.

Obama: "I like kittens."
Republicans: "Kittens suck."

Bush: "I like puppies."
Democrats: "Puppies suck."

Rinse and repeat as needed.
 
Re: Global War on Terror Version 7 - The Nightmare that Threatens the World!!!

The Ayatollah over there in Iran before a crowd larger than a Hillary for President campaign rally got the crowd lathered up with "Death to America" & "Death to Israel" chants. Same old same old, but he IS the Supreme Leader.

Big deal? Eh. I'd be careful, vewwy careful.
 
Re: Global War on Terror Version 7 - The Nightmare that Threatens the World!!!

WeAreNDHockey said:
I also think if some stateless rogue actor was going to do it, it would have been done already.
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This is the only nuclear scenario that makes my blood run cold, and far from agreeing with you I think it's just a matter of time. Someday, some fanatical nutcase is going to nuke a city. We have been unbelievably lucky so far, and I suspect there have been close calls we'll likely never know about.

The problem with the War on Terror is even though it's 98% scam, the 2% that's real is so lethal. Our individual protection is there's lots of cities so the odds of you being in the wrong place at the wrong time are tiny. But it'll happen. Someday despite everybody's diligent and even heroic efforts, all the tumblers will fall in the correct order.

FWIW, I don't think it will be in the US. I wouldn't want to live in India or Pakistan, and not just cuz it smells like poo there.
 
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Re: Global War on Terror Version 7 - The Nightmare that Threatens the World!!!

Kepler said:
This is the only nuclear scenario that makes my blood run cold, and far from agreeing with you I think it's just a matter of time. Someday, some fanatical nutcase is going to nuke a city. We have been unbelievably lucky so far, and I suspect there have been close calls we'll likely never know about.

The problem with the War on Terror is even though it's 98% scam, the 2% that's real is so lethal. Our individual protection is there's lots of cities so the odds of you being in the wrong place at the wrong time are tiny. But it'll happen. Someday despite everybody's diligent and even heroic efforts, all the tumblers will fall in the correct order.

FWIW, I don't think it will be in the US. I wouldn't want to live in India or Pakistan, and not just cuz it smells like poo there.
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I agree with one part of your overall point, that it happens, it is likely to happen in some place like Pakistan and not in the middle of a bustling U.S. city. But -- as I posted -- I don't see it with the same certainty that you do. And if it does happen, the chances of a city being "nuked" is even smaller than the small chance I see of it happening in the first place. Nuclear weapons are hard to build and hard to make work perfectly. It isn't like making a fertilizer bomb that you can drive up with in a Hertz rental truck. It's more likely such a device would be of extremely low yield and the majority of the destruction would be either symbolic or radiological (a dirty bomb scenario) than something along the lines of devastation with a 20 or 30 mile radius.

I have to admit (and this is embarrassing to a certain extent) a lot of my indifference is because I have a harder time caring about the rest of the world than I used to have. It isn't just our politics that are screwed up. Much of the world is in a political mess that I see no way out of, or that I see evidence that people even WANT a way out of. And if it does happen, it will happen someplace far away and not in Chicago with a cloud of fallout enveloping me some Saturday afternoon as I'm watching Notre Dame pizz away another football game. I guess I'm just becoming as apathetic as I used to complain about others being.
 
Re: Global War on Terror Version 7 - The Nightmare that Threatens the World!!!

I don't think a low yield means it's not going to have a huge impact. (I'm also not saying that's what you're saying). I think if you had even a small yield one go off in lower Manhattan rendering it uninhabitable (for a few years in the case of a dirty bomb, decades (?) for a low yield device) would have a massively large impact.

But I think you guys are right that if it's going to happen, it's going to happen abroad. The US just has too much control of its borders relative to the rest of the world coupled with it's massive post-9/11 intelligence infrastructure.
 
Re: Global War on Terror Version 7 - The Nightmare that Threatens the World!!!

We also don't have any home teams that are working on it, which is more than half the battle. No group in the US actually wants to nuke NYC or Washington DC, not even the craziest tin horn fundies who really think Jesus is just gassing up his Lincoln Continental for the Last Road Trip. There are probably a handful of efwits who want to, but we don't have a home-grown Boko Haram or ISIS who think if only they could get rid of New Jersey, Philadelphia would be OK again.

Most other countries of any size actually have on-board separatist groups who masturbate to the thought of murdering all the Evil Hill People so the Clean Livin' Valley People can be free. Imagine post-Yugoslavia with nukes. Those would get used. There are still places on this globe where no quarter is given.
 
Re: Global War on Terror Version 7 - The Nightmare that Threatens the World!!!

Kep, it won't be the Margaret Whites of this country who dedicate themselves to making a dirty bomb. It will be the wannabe Tim McVeighs - the white power/anarchist/prepper/conspiracy nutjobs with political vendettas against the US government and its policies.
 
Re: Global War on Terror Version 7 - The Nightmare that Threatens the World!!!

FadeToBlack&Gold said:
Kep, it won't be the Margaret Whites of this country who dedicate themselves to making a dirty bomb. It will be the wannabe Tim McVeighs - the white power/anarchist/prepper/conspiracy nutjobs with political vendettas against the US government and its policies.
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Oh sure, there are individual psychopaths out there who think InfoWars is documentary journalism, but the closest we have in the US to a group with a newsletter who would actually do something like that has membership in the dozens, not the thousands. Aryan Nation isn't posing as an alternative political apparatus. They don't send a guy to unclog your toilet or feed your elderly mother after you blow yourself up in downtown Spokane protesting affirmative action. They're not Hamas; they're not even the JDL. The hate the Gubbmint but they don't have A Plan.

The analogy to a group like Boko Haram or Hezbollah would be what if the Tea Party tried to shoot up the Capitol Building and start a coup d'etat. Those are the groups -- radicalized, violent, and also populous, multi-generational, and organized -- that I would worry about delivering a Suitcase from Allah or a Backpack from Jesus to Times Square.
 
Re: Global War on Terror Version 7 - The Nightmare that Threatens the World!!!

Kepler said:
Oh sure, there are individual psychopaths out there who think InfoWars is documentary journalism, but the closest we have in the US to a group with a newsletter who would actually do something like that has membership in the dozens, not the thousands. Aryan Nation isn't posing as an alternative political apparatus. They don't send a guy to unclog your toilet or feed your elderly mother after you blow yourself up in downtown Spokane protesting affirmative action. They're not Hamas; they're not even the JDL. The hate the Gubbmint but they don't have A Plan.

The analogy to a group like Boko Haram or Hezbollah would be what if the Tea Party tried to shoot up the Capitol Building and start a coup d'etat. Those are the groups -- radicalized, violent, and also populous, multi-generational, and organized -- that I would worry about delivering a Suitcase from Allah or a Backpack from Jesus to Times Square.
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Has the Tea Party ever advocated the violent overthrow of the government like the Weather Underground (to name one)?
 
Re: Global War on Terror Version 7 - The Nightmare that Threatens the World!!!

Kep, I don't even know where to begin with that post, since the only terrorism the so-called "Tea Party" is remotely capable of inflicting on the country is economic in nature. I know from first-hand discussions that most TPers talk a big game (git ur guns 'n march on Wershingtun!11!!1), but are curiously noncommittal when it comes to setting a date. So there is no comparison there to Hezbollah or Hamas - when those idiots commit to a bombing, they do their d@mnest to follow through.
 
Re: Global War on Terror Version 7 - The Nightmare that Threatens the World!!!

I think Kep was thinking of a Tea Party that , not our Tea Party as it has been.

But he speaks for himself very well, so . . . .
 
Re: Global War on Terror Version 7 - The Nightmare that Threatens the World!!!

TPers are compassionate about their hatred for gubmint waste. But by and large, I don't think they are hardcore "Michigan Militia" types. Just typical crotchety, white, churchgoing dudes over the age of 40 who want to keep their Social Security and Medicare, while giving a giant middle finger to their "underachieving, lazy" kids. You know, the usual Boomer exceptionalism.
 
Re: Global War on Terror Version 7 - The Nightmare that Threatens the World!!!

Well, they have a point about the millennials.
 
Re: Global War on Terror Version 7 - The Nightmare that Threatens the World!!!

joecct said:
Has the Tea Party ever advocated the violent overthrow of the government like the Weather Underground (to name one)?
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No, and that's the point. We don't have those. There's garbage like this, but that's a handful of efwits getting high on their own fumes, not a real movement.

Here's a list of groups prosecuted under 18 USC 2385. Not exactly a Rogue's Gallery. It says something that the worst we could come up with was Wobblies who wanted work stoppages at steel plants -- that's domestic politics, not terrorism.
 
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