The war with al Qaeda is over. It is time to shift to a containment strategy to deal with the remnants of the group and its scattered partners. Any such strategy must involve the empowerment of Muslim societies and the exercise of judicious restraint in the use of force. Western leaders must level with their citizens: there is no absolute security, and the security of the West is organically linked to that of the rest of humanity. People must know that there are limits to the effectiveness of force in international affairs. Terrorism cannot be eradicated with unmanned air attacks or even massive military interventions, both of which are, in any case, costly.
As for how to deal with recent terrorist plots and homegrown radicalization, there is an urgent need to expedite the withdrawal of Western, particularly American, boots from Muslim territories. For Muslims, the presence of tens of thousands of U.S. and NATO troops in their homeland remains a constant and painful reminder of the European colonial legacy of domination and subjugation. Neither Iraqis nor Afghans view the U.S. military presence as benign and disinterested, nor designed to bring them security, peace, and democracy. Rather, they see a foreign occupation, an intrusive, humiliating violation. Most of the recent bombing plots were blowback against American military tactics and campaigns in Muslim countries. The U.S. government’s own National Intelligence Estimate on “Trends in Global Terrorism” reports that the U.S.-led invasion and occupation of Iraq militarized Muslim opinion, shaped a new generation of jihadis, and generated hundreds of additional terrorist attacks and tens of thousands of civilian casualties. Today the conflicts in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and, to a lesser extent, Somalia have replaced the Iraq occupation as a major source of radicalization, including that of homegrown terrorists.
Even if the United States withdraws its troops from Iraq and Afghanistan in the next few years, as President Obama has pledged, the U.S. military footprint in the greater Middle East would still be substantial. At the very moment Obama announced “the end of our combat mission in Iraq,” the Pentagon dug deeper in the Middle East, expanding and upgrading military bases and other facilities in Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, and Saudi Arabia. This formidable, long-term military presence in the countries surrounding Iraq and Iran is likely to inflame anti-American sentiment.
Threats do exist in Yemen and Pakistan, and the United States, together with the international community, can and should assist those countries in rebuilding their institutions and addressing the threats. But the United States must resist the temptation to turn the struggle into a war between al Qaeda and the West. Neither Iraqi nor Yemeni al Qaeda factions can survive a direct confrontation with their own societies and governments. They are well aware that such a confrontation would trigger public backlash and ultimately doom them. Only taking up the anti-Western mantle can save them, and it behooves the United States and its allies not to give them a chance.
The critical factor in determining the outcome of the contest between al Qaeda operators and local governments is the degree of legitimacy the latter possess in the eyes of their Muslim populations. Legitimacy requires the establishment of representative and responsive governments and open political systems where grievances can be publicly aired. Without this, pro-Western Muslim regimes are still likely to win most battles against terrorists simply by force, but there will always be a small, disgruntled constituency that will support terrorists and extremists.
Tyranny, dismal social conditions, and the absence of hope provide the fuel that powers radical, absolutist ideologies in the Muslim world. It is not enough to focus on the violent ideology of al Qaeda without devoting sufficient attention to the social conditions that gave rise to it. Only if the Arab revolutions manage to fill the gap of legitimate political authority will al Qaeda finally be allowed to die.
