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Elections 2012: Congressional and Gubernatorial

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Re: Elections 2012: Congressional and Gubernatorial

DrDemento said:
Dennis Wolfberg? Now you are talking about funny! Lost way too soon and way too young. For those who do not know about him-occassionally HBO will rebroadcast a 1/2 hour comedy routine he did in the early 1990's. Unusual comic delivery with unbelievable timing combined with some very expressive delivery. Just looking at him was funny.
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IIRC, he'd been a teacher before he turned to comedy.
 
ericredaxe said:
I'd say the best of the 3 so far, Warren/Brown debates was last night.
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They seem to have settled into their themes well enough. Brown is on the I won't raise any taxes nor cut the military kick, while Warren is saying that won't add up plus he'd be the deciding vote for McConnell becoming Majority Leader. I think they've both surprised me in these debates in that Brown hasn't said anything overly stupid (although choosing Scalia as his favorite SCOTUS comes close) while Warren hasn't gotten rattled like I worried she might when attacked personally. It'll be interesting to me to see if anybody tries to shake things up next debate or if they each believe they can ride their own issues all the way through the election.
 
Re: Elections 2012: Congressional and Gubernatorial

We need to start tossing up some predictions here for the Senate and House.

I don't see enough movement in the House for Dems I'm sorry to say. While I think they'll gain seats, I'm thinking they'll only get about halfway there because 1) they're giving up several more seats in the South (NC, AR, OK, GA) and 2) poor recruiting in the Rust Belt. You could have a situation where Obama takes WI, OH, PA and NJ but gains no seats which is absurd. CA, IL, and NY will net them a bunch of seats, and they'll do better than expected in FL due to scandal ridden incumbents but to gain 35 seats (25 plus 10 or so they'll lose) it would take finding another 20 seats and after you put aside the states already accounted for there's not much left.

I do see positive movement in the Senate. Starting with Wisconsin I'm not sure Thompson's heart is in this race probably because he's broke due to the competitive primary. I was thinking about writing this one off when he won the nomination but perhaps his time has already come and gone. Kaine seems to be doing a little better in VA although he's going to need an Obama win or a very very tight loss to pull through (Allen is a total idiot and he's lucky to have him as an opponent). Only other race I'm convinced about is MO where the wheels seem to be coming off of Akin. Running a spot with rape victims blasting him was a devastating ploy by McCaskill and I'm not sure how he recovers since big money donons still seem to be staying on the sidelines.

Beyond that McMahon is making a race of it in CT and Carmona in AZ. Along with Indiana and North Dakota I give an A for effort for all these candidates but I think they'll end up siding with their usual leanings although it would be nice to steal one.

So at the end of the day seats that flip are ND & MT to the GOP, ME to Ind and MA to Dem.
 
Re: Elections 2012: Congressional and Gubernatorial

Rover said:
We need to start tossing up some predictions here for the Senate and House.

I don't see enough movement in the House for Dems I'm sorry to say. While I think they'll gain seats, I'm thinking they'll only get about halfway there because 1) they're giving up several more seats in the South (NC, AR, OK, GA) and 2) poor recruiting in the Rust Belt. You could have a situation where Obama takes WI, OH, PA and NJ but gains no seats which is absurd. CA, IL, and NY will net them a bunch of seats, and they'll do better than expected in FL due to scandal ridden incumbents but to gain 35 seats (25 plus 10 or so they'll lose) it would take finding another 20 seats and after you put aside the states already accounted for there's not much left.

I do see positive movement in the Senate. Starting with Wisconsin I'm not sure Thompson's heart is in this race probably because he's broke due to the competitive primary. I was thinking about writing this one off when he won the nomination but perhaps his time has already come and gone. Kaine seems to be doing a little better in VA although he's going to need an Obama win or a very very tight loss to pull through (Allen is a total idiot and he's lucky to have him as an opponent). Only other race I'm convinced about is MO where the wheels seem to be coming off of Akin. Running a spot with rape victims blasting him was a devastating ploy by McCaskill and I'm not sure how he recovers since big money donons still seem to be staying on the sidelines.

Beyond that McMahon is making a race of it in CT and Carmona in AZ. Along with Indiana and North Dakota I give an A for effort for all these candidates but I think they'll end up siding with their usual leanings although it would be nice to steal one.

So at the end of the day seats that flip are ND & MT to the GOP, ME to Ind and MA to Dem.
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Nebraska doesn't count? Bob Kerrey's trailing by 16. That seat flips.
 
Re: Elections 2012: Congressional and Gubernatorial

Rover said:
We need to start tossing up some predictions here for the Senate and House.

I don't see enough movement in the House for Dems I'm sorry to say. While I think they'll gain seats, I'm thinking they'll only get about halfway there because 1) they're giving up several more seats in the South (NC, AR, OK, GA) and 2) poor recruiting in the Rust Belt. You could have a situation where Obama takes WI, OH, PA and NJ but gains no seats which is absurd. CA, IL, and NY will net them a bunch of seats, and they'll do better than expected in FL due to scandal ridden incumbents but to gain 35 seats (25 plus 10 or so they'll lose) it would take finding another 20 seats and after you put aside the states already accounted for there's not much left.

I do see positive movement in the Senate. Starting with Wisconsin I'm not sure Thompson's heart is in this race probably because he's broke due to the competitive primary. I was thinking about writing this one off when he won the nomination but perhaps his time has already come and gone. Kaine seems to be doing a little better in VA although he's going to need an Obama win or a very very tight loss to pull through (Allen is a total idiot and he's lucky to have him as an opponent). Only other race I'm convinced about is MO where the wheels seem to be coming off of Akin. Running a spot with rape victims blasting him was a devastating ploy by McCaskill and I'm not sure how he recovers since big money donons still seem to be staying on the sidelines.

Beyond that McMahon is making a race of it in CT and Carmona in AZ. Along with Indiana and North Dakota I give an A for effort for all these candidates but I think they'll end up siding with their usual leanings although it would be nice to steal one.

So at the end of the day seats that flip are ND & MT to the GOP, ME to Ind and MA to Dem.
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I think you forgot the NE-Senate (Nelson's seat) to the GOP. That one's a cinch, as Bob Kerrey never got momentum. That would give the GOP a net gain of 1 in the Senate -- an epic fail for them when six months ago the predictions were +4.

Allen/Kaine is a complete toss-up, as they are both very popular in VA. I agree it will come down to whoever wins at the top of the ticket.
 
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Re: Elections 2012: Congressional and Gubernatorial

Boner remains in power and Mitch becomes Senate Leader with a newly elected Mittens Romney.
 
Re: Elections 2012: Congressional and Gubernatorial

Sorry forgot about that one! Yes three flip GOP, one Ind and one Dem.
 
Re: Elections 2012: Congressional and Gubernatorial

Rover said:
Sorry forgot about that one! Yes three flip GOP, one Ind and one Dem.
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I know (a little) and admire Bob Kerrey, just as I would any Medal of Honor winner. But he's been out of the state for years. More than a decade since he's been on a ballot there. Nebraska is more conservative now than when he left. Nebraskans weren't enraged that Ben Nelson voted for Obamacare (they opposed it, to be sure), they were enraged that in working out the "Cornhusker Kickback" he had exposed them to ridicule. And the way to make certain that doesn't happen again is to send a Republican to Washington in his place.
 
Old Pio said:
I know (a little) and admire Bob Kerrey, just as I would any Medal of Honor winner. But he's been out of the state for years. More than a decade since he's been on a ballot there. Nebraska is more conservative now than when he left. Nebraskans weren't enraged that Ben Nelson voted for Obamacare (they opposed it, to be sure), they were enraged that in working out the "Cornhusker Kickback" he had exposed them to ridicule. And the way to make certain that doesn't happen again is to send a Republican to Washington in his place.
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He was a good "get" by Schumer I guess to run for the seat, but clearly it hasn't worked out. Dems did a good job in Senate recruitment this year (not that they'll all win, but Warren, Kaine, Baldwin, Heitkamp, Carmona, Donnelly have given them some good chances) with only a couple of misses (Berkeley although I'm not sure who else they had for that seat and Murphy in CT). This is the main reason why I'd like to see Schumer replace the useless Harry Reid as Senate leader.
 
Re: Elections 2012: Congressional and Gubernatorial

I'm guessing the point is about respecting decorated combat veterans. I believe Kerry won a Silver Star along the way, while not a Medal of Honor I daresay its more than 99.999% of the USCHO population (any Silver Star winners kindly come out here and take a bow).
 
Re: Elections 2012: Congressional and Gubernatorial

Rover said:
I'm guessing the point is about respecting decorated combat veterans. I believe Kerry won a Silver Star along the way, while not a Medal of Honor I daresay its more than 99.999% of the USCHO population (any Silver Star winners kindly come out here and take a bow).
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Plus he also got a "Purple Heart" when he was blowing up that pile of rice after some gook ****ed him off, and his own grenade fragment caught him in the *** as he ran away. This was before he came home to "take it to the man" in the greater cause of free reefer for all while working as a part time gigolo and ketchup taster.

Where have all the heroes gone?
 
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