Re: Detroit Tigers 2010: Streaker is going to buy me some beer
I've really been putting a lot of thought into our division lately, now with the injury to Nathan (possibly having Tommy Johns and could be out more than 1 year) to me, I see things shaking out like this:
Ranking each position 1st, 2nd and 3rd best.
Offense:
C - Twins, Sox, Tigers
1b - Tigers/Twins, Sox
2b - Sox, Twins/Tigers
SS - Twins, Sox, Tigers
3b - Tigers, Sox, Twins (yes, Teahen and Punto are that bad)
LF - Tigers, Twins, Sox
CF - Twins, Sox/Tigers
RF - Twins, Sox, Tigers
DH - Twins, Tigers, Sox
Offensively, the Twins are just that good. Even where the Tigers have their best hitter, Morneau is right there. Only at 3b will they have a bit of a black hole. The Tigers are terrible at C and SS offensively, but the other places they will struggle, so will the White Sox with Rios and Teahen in CF and at 3b. I like Cabrera/Ordonez/Guillen/Damon better than Konerko/Quentin/Beckham/Ramirez (yes, I think Beckham and Ramirez are their third and fourth best hitters). So, I think the Tigers will be better offensively than the White Sox.
Defense:
C - Twins, Tigers, Sox
1b - Tigers, Twins, Sox
2b - Sox, Tigers, Twins
SS - Tigers/Twins, Sox
3b - Tigers, Twins, Sox
LF - Sox, Tigers, Twins
CF - Sox, Tigers, Twins
RF - Tigers, Sox, Twins
The Tigers have a significantly better infield defense than the White Sox, but the White Sox have a better fielding OF. Overall, I would give the nod defensively to the Tigers, though not by a ton. This is where the Twins will lose, if they lose. They are just terrible defensively, outside of Mauer, Morneau, and Hardy. Some sites/publications are suggesting Kubel would play LF instead of Young. This does not help them defensively...as both are awful.
SP- Sox, Tigers, Twins
If I had to put money on it, I'd bet on Buerhle, Denks, and Floyd, with some upside potential from Peavy over Verlander/Scherzer/Porcello with upside potential from Bonderman. Verlander is the best pitcher among these three teams, but while Porcello and Scherzer have more upside than
Denks and Floyd, I think their most likely performance is a bit less. While Peavy and Bonderman both have big question marks at the 4th starter, I'd bet on Peavy if I had to. I'm not clear that Freddy Garcia is actually any better than the Tiger's 5th starter options, and the Tigers actually have more options (not better, but more) there. So overall, again, I'd take the Sox for what I expect, but the Tigers have more upside, overall. One wildcard: The White Sox have a pretty good groundball inducing staff, but are not as strong as the Tigers in the infield.
To me, Baker/Blackburn/Slowey are clearly inferior to the other two teams top 3 starters. Baker is a pretty good pitcher, but Blackburn is getting by on some scary peripherals. He's been doing it for a while though, so while I don't see him crashing and burning, I see 2009 as his top end. Slowey could rebound to 2008 numbers with his super control, but certainly he has as many question marks as any #3. Liriano is a major variable, but given reports on him post injury, I don't see any chance he'll be the lights-out unhittable monster he was pre-injury. With his peripherals though, he could improve the results to league average (he had a 4.87 FIP last year).
Pavano is the best 5th starter of the group. Or Liriano is.. Or Slowey is.. Of course, that's the problem. It's hard to tell, of those three, who the 5th starter is..However, they have a better chance of having a league average starter at the bottom of the rotation than the other two teams. Of course, they also have a better chance of having three below league average starters than any of the teams.
So I think the Twins have non-trivially worse SP, both for what I'd expect and for upside.
Bullpen - White Sox, Tigers, Twins
At this point, I think the Tigers have the best closer of the three. That helps. On the other hand, I think the bulk of the Twins and the White Sox pen is a better bet for expected performance. On the gripping hand, I think the Tigers have more upside, with the potential of Perry, Zumaya, and others having significantly better performances than what you might expect. Further, the Tigers seem to have more depth as you traverse the 40 man roster and beyond. That said, I like Jenks/Linebrink/Thornton/Putz over Valverde/Perry/Ni/Zumaya, and with Rauch being pushed up, I like both over Rauch/Mijares/Guerrier/Crain. Neshek does give them some non-trivial upside though, if he can come back from his injury strong.
So overall, the meme for the Central is:
The Twins hit it.
The White Sox have the best pitchers.
The Tigers have the upside advantage, mostly pitching wise, but also, to some degree, offensively.
If I'm forced to bet money, I bet it on the White Sox.
If the Tigers kids (Jackson, Sizemore, Porcello, Scherzer, Perry) are ahead of schedule and they don't have more than one major injury between Damon/Guillen/Ordonez, they will be tough to beat. Oh yeah, and Bonderman. He's the real key. For them to contend, he has to be in the neighborhood of league average. All those questions are why I'd pick the Sox right now.
1. Sox
2. Tigers
3. Twins
4. Indians
5. Royals (what a HORRIBLE off season, just horrible)
It's funny, I hate picking the Sox because I think they did almost everything wrong in the offseason, while the Twins did a lot right, as did, IMO, the Tigers(and I really HATE the Twins and Whitesox). However, I think the pitching advantage was too much to start with. I know that sounds weird, given that the Twins and Tigers beat the Sox in 2009, but I'm really trying to be less of a homer and look at things objectively.
Is it April yet?
But, he writes alot like Falls, very reminiscent pieces- just leave out the Kraut line stories or the columns about his wife's sausage stuffing.
