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Detroit Tigers 2010: Streaker is going to buy me some beer

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Re: Detroit Tigers 2010: Streaker is going to buy me some beer

I'm too lazy to look up Damon's splits from last season, but I'm curious how many homers he hit at the new Yankee Stadium. If more than half of them came from that weak left field, then Damon might set a season low for power playing at Comerica. Hopefully I'm wrong.
 
Re: Detroit Tigers 2010: Streaker is going to buy me some beer

I'm too lazy to look up Damon's splits from last season, but I'm curious how many homers he hit at the new Yankee Stadium. If more than half of them came from that weak left field, then Damon might set a season low for power playing at Comerica. Hopefully I'm wrong.

17 in New York, 7 on the road.
 
Re: Detroit Tigers 2010: Streaker is going to buy me some beer

Minnesota and Detroit had 86 and Chicago had 79 last year. Give Chicago a couple more wins vs the other two and you're looking at 84/84/83

Bronc... but BOTH Chicago and Minnesota made decent gains heading into 2010. CWS will have Peavy will be there for a full season, Juan Pierre, JJ Putz, Mark Teahen is in from KC, and a healthy Carlos Quentin could well make them formidable. Minnesota acquired Thome, Hudson, and re-signed Pavano.

Just sayin'... these are unlikely to be weak teams. Do you expect a White Sox rotation of Buehrle, Peavy, Danks, Floyd, and Daniel Hudson to be .500 or less? I just don't see it. Those guys are going to give the Sox a chance to win far more often than lose.
 
Re: Detroit Tigers 2010: Streaker is going to buy me some beer

I'm too lazy to look up Damon's splits from last season, but I'm curious how many homers he hit at the new Yankee Stadium. If more than half of them came from that weak left field, then Damon might set a season low for power playing at Comerica. Hopefully I'm wrong.

Few things here.. first, all that matters power-wise for Damon is the right field walls at either park... he is not going to be going the other way with any of his HRs that is for sure. So, Comerica Park is a definitely more "hitter friendly" park to right than left.

Right .... 330 ft
Right Center.... 365 ft
Center... 420 ft
Left Center.... 370 ft
Left..... 345 ft

Just for comparison's sake, here are the dimensions at Yankee Stadium:

Right... 314 ft
Right Center.... 385 ft
Center.... 408 ft
Left Center... 399 ft
Left.... 318 ft

(Those are the exact same dimensions as old Yankee Stadium, btw)

That said, the construction of Yankee Stadium definitely made balls jump out of the park last yr (its first season in use) and I am sure Damon benefitted on at least a few of those 17 HRs hit there.

This from Wiki: "A variety of theories have been posited to account for the dramatic increase in home runs at the new Yankee Stadium over the original stadium, foremost among these the sharper angles of the outfield walls and the speculated presence of a wind tunnel. During construction of the new ballpark, engineers commissioned a wind study, the results of which indicated there would be no noticeable difference between the two stadiums. The franchise is planning to conduct a second study, but Major League rules prohibit it from making any changes to the playing field until the off-season.

An independent study by the weather service provider AccuWeather in June 2009 concluded that the shape and height of the right field wall, rather than the wind, is responsible for the proliferation of home runs at the stadium. AccuWeather's analysis found that roughly 20% of the home runs hit at the new ballpark would not have been home runs at the old ballpark due to the gentle curve of its right field corner, and its 10-foot wall height. Nothing was observed in wind speeds and patterns that would account for the increase.

The number of home runs hit at the new stadium slowed significantly as the season progressed, but a new single-season record for most home runs hit at a Yankee home ballpark was nonetheless set in the Yankees' 73rd home game of 2009 when Vladimir Guerrero of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim hit the 216th home run of the season at the venue, surpassing the previous record of 215 set at the original Yankee Stadium in 2005."
 
Re: Detroit Tigers 2010: Streaker is going to buy me some beer

Few things here.. first, all that matters power-wise for Damon is the right field walls at either park... he is not going to be going the other way with any of his HRs that is for sure. So, Comerica Park is a definitely more "hitter friendly" park to right than left.

Right .... 330 ft
Right Center.... 365 ft
Center... 420 ft
Left Center.... 370 ft
Left..... 345 ft

Just for comparison's sake, here are the dimensions at Yankee Stadium:

Right... 314 ft
Right Center.... 385 ft
Center.... 408 ft
Left Center... 399 ft
Left.... 318 ft

(Those are the exact same dimensions as old Yankee Stadium, btw)

That said, the construction of Yankee Stadium definitely made balls jump out of the park last yr (its first season in use) and I am sure Damon benefitted on at least a few of those 17 HRs hit there.

Yep, sorry I meant right field not left. That's what I get for posting before coffee in the morning.

I'll still stand by the rest of what I wrote though. There is no way Damon hits more than 15 homers this season.

Of course, if he's going to bat .300 and have a nice on base % at leadoff I'll happily forgive him for a lack of power.
 
Re: Detroit Tigers 2010: Streaker is going to buy me some beer

Yep, sorry I meant right field not left. That's what I get for posting before coffee in the morning.

I'll still stand by the rest of what I wrote though. There is no way Damon hits more than 15 homers this season.

Of course, if he's going to bat .300 and have a nice on base % at leadoff I'll happily forgive him for a lack of power.

Conversely, what is Granderson going to do in Yankee stadium? 20 HR, 25 SB's, 10 3B's and an instant gold glove candidate. I guess we didn't need that anymore.
 
Re: Detroit Tigers 2010: Streaker is going to buy me some beer

Conversely, what is Granderson going to do in Yankee stadium? 20 HR, 25 SB's, 10 3B's and an instant gold glove candidate. I guess we didn't need that anymore.

Granderson's average and OBS were horrific. Don't put so much stock into a guy just because he was a fan favorite. The Tigers are a better team than they were last year, that's all that matters going forward.
 
Re: Detroit Tigers 2010: Streaker is going to buy me some beer

Conversely, what is Granderson going to do in Yankee stadium? 20 HR, 25 SB's, 10 3B's and an instant gold glove candidate. I guess we didn't need that anymore.

Twenty homers is low, I'd be surprised if he's under 30. He's got a great chance to be a 30/30 guy.
 
Re: Detroit Tigers 2010: Streaker is going to buy me some beer

Conversely, what is Granderson going to do in Yankee stadium? 20 HR, 25 SB's, 10 3B's and an instant gold glove candidate. I guess we didn't need that anymore.

Granderson will probably hit 30 homers easily. He'll also be lower in the batting order and be better off with say A-Rod hitting in front of him and Posada behind him to protect him from pitching changes.
 
Re: Detroit Tigers 2010: Streaker is going to buy me some beer

Twenty homers is low, I'd be surprised if he's under 30. He's got a great chance to be a 30/30 guy.

No he won't because he won't be batting vs lefties... bank on it. Granderson will be playing 1/2 of games vs lefties at most (if at all). The Yankees will not tolerate a guy who hits .180 vs lefties. They have others to take care of that later in games.
 
Re: Detroit Tigers 2010: Streaker is going to buy me some beer

I'll bet anyone of you that Granderson doesn't hit more than 25 homers. In fact, I'll bet that Inge hits more than he does.
 
Re: Detroit Tigers 2010: Streaker is going to buy me some beer

Granderson's average and OBS were horrific. Don't put so much stock into a guy just because he was a fan favorite. The Tigers are a better team than they were last year, that's all that matters going forward.

I could give two ****s about him being a fan favorite. But, you got all the answers. Trade a bona fide gold glover with power for a CF that is unproven defensively and offensively in the majors. Let a FA 2b walk for less money than a washed up 36 yr old LH batter who can't run or throw that is now Leyland's LF. And have a 2b with no MLB experience to boot.

Somehow I don't believe your Jedi mind trick is working on me.
 
Re: Detroit Tigers 2010: Streaker is going to buy me some beer

I could give two ****s about him being a fan favorite. But, you got all the answers. Trade a bona fide gold glover with power for a CF that is unproven defensively and offensively in the majors. Let a FA 2b walk for less money than a washed up 36 yr old LH batter who can't run or throw that is now Leyland's LF. And have a 2b with no MLB experience to boot.

Somehow I don't believe your Jedi mind trick is working on me.

Funny how at 36 Damon in your opinion is washed up, yet his numbers were better than a bona fide gold glover (who ACTUALLY has won ZERO gold gloves). Sounds like you are the one trying to pull the fast one of me with Jedi Mind Tricks.

Fail.
 
Re: Detroit Tigers 2010: Streaker is going to buy me some beer

Funny how at 36 Damon in your opinion is washed up, yet his numbers were better than a bona fide gold glover (who ACTUALLY has won ZERO gold gloves). Sounds like you are the one trying to pull the fast one of me with Jedi Mind Tricks.

Fail.

Granderson's defensive numbers were good enough for gold glove consideration, but they judge that like Olympic figure skating. Grady Sizemore is a heck of a player, but defensively, Granderson deserves some consideration. He also didn't have the benefit of the lineup he will in NYC. We'll see whose numbers go up and who's numbers go down. And I'll take Granderson's non-gold glove over Damon's hole in the glove any time.

Let's break down the lineup and see how well your optimism will hold water.

Typically a team's strength is based on how they stand "up the middle".

Well, now you have an unproven MLer in CF. An unproven MLer at 2b. NO ML at bats. Then at SS, you have adequate fielding, insufferable offense. You have 1 All star pitcher, 1 kid trying to avoid a sophomore jinx, and a hope and a prayer for the rest of the rotation. Plenty of potentially good to great arms, but it will be a work in progress, especially come relief time.

Then you have the catching situation. Offensively, Laird can't hit water splitting into the middle of the ocean from a rowboat. His defensive numbers, outside of his arm, are inflated. His manages a game poorly, and gives up the occasional PB at the most inopportune times. Then you have the sophomore, Avila, who will be the next catcher. Good bat, adequate arm, just needs more experience.

As far as the rest of the starters:

LF is a graveyard of shipwrecked careers. Higginson. Monroe. Thames. Now, we wayyyy oversign for an aging star that has deceiving power numbers away from the friendly confines of the AL east parks, and slow legs. His fielding is adequate, but has no arm. His backups are either an uber-utilityman that has some pop and has an arm, or name the Mudhen of choice, unless they stick Guillen out there occasionally. What fun that will be.

RF is all Magglio, unless Brian Kelly or some other Mudhen backup wants to imitate a ML ballplayer. I hope he is healthy, and I hope Jackson can cover up our outfield's lack of speed.

3B is another "fan favorite". Inge can be a superstar one day, making the most difficult plays with a great glove and rifle arm, then looks like a sandlot kid the next, booting easy ground balls that typically lead to big innings. His batting is just as erratic, Mr. All or nothing.

1B will be carefully microscoped. Cabrera is an adequate fielder now that he has learned 1b, and his power and presence in the order makes him a legit superstar to be- that is unless he continues to leave RISP in key situations. I don't put much stock in a $10MM bomber who hits a ton without anybody on base.
Oh, and IF he re-lapses, maybe the best advice for a guy hungover from one of his binges is, "try to catch the ball that is in the middle"and "try to hit the first fastball you may see".

Okay, mr. jolly sunshine, counter that. :rolleyes: I know the Sox and Twins can't wait.
 
Re: Detroit Tigers 2010: Streaker is going to buy me some beer

I have to head out to a conference that starts at 10am. I'll get to this sometime this afternoon. It's hard to believe you are so incredibly pessimistic...Are the weather and ecomony really that bad in Southeastern Michigan?
 
Re: Detroit Tigers 2010: Streaker is going to buy me some beer

Here are the CHONE and Marcel projections for our projected starting lineup and their runs above or below average (based on projected PA):

CHONE Marcel Average
Laird -11.5, -12.7, -12.1
Cabrera 36.6, 30.9, 33.75
Sizemore -4.7, N/A, -4.7
Everett -18.1, -15.5, -16.8
Inge -9.9, -10.9, -10.4
Jackson -6.0, N/A, -6
Ordonez 13.1, 17.5, 15.3
Guillen 5.9, 5.0, 5.45
Damon 11.5, 11.6, 11.55

Total offensive runs above or below average: +16.05

Now the bench players:

Santiago -7.1, 0.5, -3.3
Raburn 7.1, 5.4, 6.25
Thomas -7.4, 1.5, -2.95
Diaz -8.0, -1.9, -4.95

Total offensive runs above or below average using both starters and projected bench players: +11.1

Based on these 2 projection systems, we have a slightly above average offense.

Onto defense (UZR projections are from Jeff Zimmerman)...

http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?k...IOVA1aFE&hl=en

CHONE UZR Average
Laird 6.4, N/A, 6.4
Cabrera -1, 0, -0.5
Sizemore -0.9, N/A, -0.9
Everett 9, 9, 9
Inge 5.6, 8, 6.8
Jackson -3, N/A, -3
Ordonez -3.5, 0, -1.75
Damon 6.4, -2, 2.2

With the assumption that Guillen will be a DH and see limited time in the field, our overall runs above average based on the starting lineup comes out to... +18.25.

And, when we include the backups...

Santiago 2.1, 0, 1.05
Thomas 1.9, 5, 3.45
Raburn 1.6, 1, 1.3
Diaz -8, N/A, -8

We come out to +16.05, and that includes a VERY LOW defensive rating for Diaz.

If we combine the expected defensive and offensive projections, then our total lineup projects to be 27.15 runs above average. In other words, our lineup should be 2.5 to 3 wins better than a league average lineup.

So, if you expect our pitching to be average to slightly above average, then we would be a 85 to 86 win team. If you expect it to be below average then you would deduct from there.
 
Re: Detroit Tigers 2010: Streaker is going to buy me some beer

I have to head out to a conference that starts at 10am. I'll get to this sometime this afternoon. It's hard to believe you are so incredibly pessimistic...Are the weather and ecomony really that bad in Southeastern Michigan?

I am a pessimist when it comes to Detroit sports. And yes, the economy, the weather and anything else around here makes it hard to be happy these days... but life isn't all that bad with good friends and family. We try.
 
Re: Detroit Tigers 2010: Streaker is going to buy me some beer

Here are the CHONE and Marcel projections for our projected starting lineup and their runs above or below average (based on projected PA):

CHONE Marcel Average
Laird -11.5, -12.7, -12.1
Cabrera 36.6, 30.9, 33.75
Sizemore -4.7, N/A, -4.7
Everett -18.1, -15.5, -16.8
Inge -9.9, -10.9, -10.4
Jackson -6.0, N/A, -6
Ordonez 13.1, 17.5, 15.3
Guillen 5.9, 5.0, 5.45
Damon 11.5, 11.6, 11.55

Total offensive runs above or below average: +16.05

Now the bench players:

Santiago -7.1, 0.5, -3.3
Raburn 7.1, 5.4, 6.25
Thomas -7.4, 1.5, -2.95
Diaz -8.0, -1.9, -4.95

Total offensive runs above or below average using both starters and projected bench players: +11.1

Based on these 2 projection systems, we have a slightly above average offense.

Onto defense (UZR projections are from Jeff Zimmerman)...

http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?k...IOVA1aFE&hl=en

CHONE UZR Average
Laird 6.4, N/A, 6.4
Cabrera -1, 0, -0.5
Sizemore -0.9, N/A, -0.9
Everett 9, 9, 9
Inge 5.6, 8, 6.8
Jackson -3, N/A, -3
Ordonez -3.5, 0, -1.75
Damon 6.4, -2, 2.2

With the assumption that Guillen will be a DH and see limited time in the field, our overall runs above average based on the starting lineup comes out to... +18.25.

And, when we include the backups...

Santiago 2.1, 0, 1.05
Thomas 1.9, 5, 3.45
Raburn 1.6, 1, 1.3
Diaz -8, N/A, -8

We come out to +16.05, and that includes a VERY LOW defensive rating for Diaz.

If we combine the expected defensive and offensive projections, then our total lineup projects to be 27.15 runs above average. In other words, our lineup should be 2.5 to 3 wins better than a league average lineup.

So, if you expect our pitching to be average to slightly above average, then we would be a 85 to 86 win team. If you expect it to be below average then you would deduct from there.

I'm not much into stats like this. I'm into gut feel, and I think the Chisox and Twins have done more to improve than our team- and the Royals and Indians, who knows- but they always manage to win games from us they shouldn't. I feel gut punched the way Dombrowski has managed the roster the last few years. If our pitching holds up, Hammer will enjoy a pitcher on me. If it doesn't, and the offense and defense is what I think it will be, I'll be the one enjoying the free beverage.
 
Re: Detroit Tigers 2010: Streaker is going to buy me some beer

I love the Tigers more than anything (except my family and NMU) and without being to much of a homer...just as a pure baseball fan, I think we've improved over last years team. I think our bullpen is going to be our strong suit and if the rookies can do just about anything I think we'll win the division.

Remember every year that the Tigers have been picked to do well recently they stink. On the flip side, when we've been picked to finish 3rd or 4th we have competed for a playoff spot.

All in all, it's going to be a great season! Being in the heart of spring training country makes me even more ready for some baseball!!!:D
 
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