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Detroit Tigers, 2009, Part III: How long does it take for Leyland to screw this up?

Re: Detroit Tigers, 2009, Part III: How long does it take for Leyland to screw this up?

Re: Detroit Tigers, 2009, Part III: How long does it take for Leyland to screw this up?

We have very solid pitching and I don't think our offense looks any worse than anyone else in our division. We're on par with the Twins. We have Cabrera, Ordonez, Guillen and Raburn/Thomas; they have Mauer, Morneau, Kubel and Young. Neither team has much outside of that. The White Sox have..? The Royals..? The Indians..? Who are we worse than and why?

We have a very good front end, but the #4 and #5 starter options right now are troubling at best. For now I'll operate under the assumption that Scherzer is the #3 starter, and will fiil Jackson's shoes nicely, but after that? Uh-oh. Galarraga has been bad for a year and a half, and to pencil in anything out of Robertson, Bonderman or Bonine at this point is foolhardy at best.

We also have no closer, and right now, no proven set-up man. Best case scenario is that Ryan Perry spends the winter figuring out how to throw strikes and wins the 9th inning job in March. We gotta get him there first. Seay is fine for lefties, but you and I both know that we don't want Zach Miner in the game in the 8th inning when it's 3-2 and 2 runners on. He's best to get us through the 6th and 7th innings. There's nothing else sitting in the pen that makes me feel cozy when the 8th inning rolls around.

There's some serious holes to be filled. Don't go penciling this team in for 85 wins yet. That bit us in the *** in 2008.
 
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Re: Detroit Tigers, 2009, Part III: How long does it take for Leyland to screw this up?

Re: Detroit Tigers, 2009, Part III: How long does it take for Leyland to screw this up?

I don't buy this with Polanco. I would have offered arbitration. The worst case scenario is that he accepts arbitration and you have him for one more year, until such time that you can determine that Sizemore really can play 2B at the major league level. Now, we're in the position that if this kid is shows immediately that he can hit, and can play 2B like his hands aren't on backwards, it's a great move.

However, if he struggles the first month and is hitting .192 on May 1, and is showing that he needs more time in the minors, we've got a real problem. Ramon Santiago breaks down once you get past 200-250 at bats. The only year he's been above 300 at bats wasn't pretty, even though it was six years ago.

Sure, Polanco is in decline, but one more season to make sure that Sizemore is indeed ready likely would have been more prudent. In this scenario, if he shows that he's ready, you can always trade Polanco in May or June. It's not like you have to give him a 3 year deal, like Philly did.

In Sizemore, we are basically getting a player the exact opposite of Polanco. Placido never struck out and never took walks. Sizemore will K quite a bit and compensate for that with a good BB%. Polanco had no power, and made his living with a good BA and outstanding defense. Sizemore has pretty good pop in his bat for a 2B and will probably need to give us a OPS above .800 to make up for a defensive game that is only supposed to project to be average (will it get there?). To top it off, Polanco is in decline and Sizemore is about to hit his prime years. From all the reports I've read, Sizemore sounds like a high floor player who should be a pretty good player for us and an average to above average 2nd baseman.

But I think it's a moot point, because I don't think DD/Chadd value the comp picks all that much. And if you don't really want the picks, then it makes sense not to offer arbitration if you don't want the player.
 
Re: Detroit Tigers, 2009, Part III: How long does it take for Leyland to screw this up?

Re: Detroit Tigers, 2009, Part III: How long does it take for Leyland to screw this up?

Streaker-

As for "Alkie" - he is arguably the best young hitter in baseball not named Mauer or Ramirez, and will be worth every penny of that $20 million per season. If he produces as well as "Alkie" Mantle did then the Tigers will care less about his choice of hobbies.
 
Re: Detroit Tigers, 2009, Part III: How long does it take for Leyland to screw this up?

Re: Detroit Tigers, 2009, Part III: How long does it take for Leyland to screw this up?

I don't doubt that in three years Sizemore will be a far better option at 2B than Polanco. However, that doesn't help us next season. If this kid struggles out of the gate, we've got very few options at all, and none that are appealing. A double play combo of Santiago/Everett, quite frankly, is not what I want in the lineup every day while this kid is putting his act back together in Toledo. We're asking an awful lot of a kid who has yet to take a major league at bat, and just broke his ankle about 4 weeks ago.

I suspect that Chadd values the 1st round pick of Philly (in this case) to be higher than we think, especially given his track record over the last 5-6 years in the 1st round, and also given the fact that Illitch has given the green light repeatedly to go over and above the MLB slot recommendations to sign these picks. Remember, the Tigers would have received more than a sandwich pick for Polanco.

Somebody was going to sign Polanco as a free agent. He wasn't accepting arbitration to come back, especially now that we know that he signed for 3 years in Philadelphia and isn't even going to play 2B. We likely would have wound up with somebody else's 1st round pick as well as our own, and unless Polanco ended up with the Yankees, it would have been higher than Philly's.
 
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Re: Detroit Tigers, 2009, Part III: How long does it take for Leyland to screw this up?

Re: Detroit Tigers, 2009, Part III: How long does it take for Leyland to screw this up?

As for Cabrera, the proof is going to be in the pudding. If it doesn't become a recurring problem, and he doesn't go get loaded like a freight train the night before a big game at the end of a pennant race, fine.

But if this kid falls off the wagon and needs treatment, we've got more issues than Sports Illustrated, and any and all bets are off for everybody involved.
 
Re: Detroit Tigers, 2009, Part III: How long does it take for Leyland to screw this up?

Re: Detroit Tigers, 2009, Part III: How long does it take for Leyland to screw this up?

Just like you're really going to dislike Phil Coke in the old English "D."

Yeah, I'm going to hate this...Phil Coke yielded only 44 hits in 60 innings of work in 2009. He held lefties to a .195 BAA and .584 OPS. Righties only hit .227 off him. His WHIP and (and HR/9 ) both suggest he'll allow fewer baserunners than Rodney. Not to mention he lost 18 lbs and got in much better physical shape. I was impressed with him last year, he throws hard, and can pitch back to back.
 
Re: Detroit Tigers, 2009, Part III: How long does it take for Leyland to screw this up?

Re: Detroit Tigers, 2009, Part III: How long does it take for Leyland to screw this up?

We have very solid pitching and I don't think our offense looks any worse than anyone else in our division. We're on par with the Twins. We have Cabrera, Ordonez, Guillen and Raburn/Thomas; they have Mauer, Morneau, Kubel and Young. Neither team has much outside of that. The White Sox have..? The Royals..? The Indians..? Who are we worse than and why?

This team imploded in the 2nd half of last year, primarily because the hitting sucked donkey balls. They're already staring at Inge, Everett and Laird playing most games, and now there are two more question marks at CF and 2B. Those 4 other positions might be the only guys hitting over .230.

There's nothing all that impressive about the bullpen, a pen that will likely see more use with the Jackson/Scherzer move, since Jackson pitched 20% more innings. Beyond that, there's a whole crapload of money tied into guys who can't even make the rotation.

Those kids might turn out in a couple years, but I think it more likely this team is selling off any expiring contracts in July next season ala Cleveland to actual contenders than anything else.
 
Re: Detroit Tigers, 2009, Part III: How long does it take for Leyland to screw this up?

Re: Detroit Tigers, 2009, Part III: How long does it take for Leyland to screw this up?

Make a few adjustment for not playing on a parking lot anymore, adjust for weather...their pitching hasn't improved and with all that offense, they were decidedly below .500 until the middle of September...
 
Re: Detroit Tigers, 2009, Part III: How long does it take for Leyland to screw this up?

Re: Detroit Tigers, 2009, Part III: How long does it take for Leyland to screw this up?

You know what's baffling. How someone can watch a lot of baseball and completely discount defense. How people cannot understand basic concepts like a player being a good defensive player in a hard and important defensive position like SS or CF makes them more valuable than a fat (and getting fatter) statue who plays the easiest defensive position in the game and plays it poorly.

Granderson is worth more than he's getting paid. We can't say the same about Cabrera. :)
 
Re: Detroit Tigers, 2009, Part III: How long does it take for Leyland to screw this up?

Re: Detroit Tigers, 2009, Part III: How long does it take for Leyland to screw this up?

You know what's baffling. How someone can watch a lot of baseball and completely discount defense. How people cannot understand basic concepts like a player being a good defensive player in a hard and important defensive position like SS or CF makes them more valuable than a fat (and getting fatter) statue who plays the easiest defensive position in the game and plays it poorly.

Granderson is worth more than he's getting paid. We can't say the same about Cabrera. :)

Fail.

He had the 2nd highest UZR among AL first basemen this past season.

Try again.
 
Re: Detroit Tigers, 2009, Part III: How long does it take for Leyland to screw this up?

Re: Detroit Tigers, 2009, Part III: How long does it take for Leyland to screw this up?

I am hearing that the Cardinals are interested in Inge now...
 
Re: Detroit Tigers, 2009, Part III: How long does it take for Leyland to screw this up?

Re: Detroit Tigers, 2009, Part III: How long does it take for Leyland to screw this up?

Okay, who plays third if he ship him? The answer better not be Carlos Guillen...
 
Re: Detroit Tigers, 2009, Part III: How long does it take for Leyland to screw this up?

Re: Detroit Tigers, 2009, Part III: How long does it take for Leyland to screw this up?

Okay, who plays third if he ship him? The answer better not be Carlos Guillen...

Tom Brookens of course...
 
Re: Detroit Tigers, 2009, Part III: How long does it take for Leyland to screw this up?

Re: Detroit Tigers, 2009, Part III: How long does it take for Leyland to screw this up?

streaker, you and I are on opposite ends on Dombrowski:


And just when was that? The mid-70's? That's the last time the Tiger farm system produced on a consistent basis. Other than that, the Mud Hens have been doing things with 4-A players like Mike Hessman, Virgil Vasquez, Chris Lambert and Brent Clevlen. About 5 years ago, when Fifth Third Field was being built, the Mud Hen management went to the Tigers and told them: "Look. We're building a new field here. Give us some talent to put in it, or we're going to find another major league team as an affiliate. We're tired of this".

Look. The Tigers drafted and produced homegrown talent for the Tigers very, very poorly for 24 years, between 1979 and 2003. You can count on two hands the truly good players this franchise produced in those years:

Howard Johnson
John Smoltz (who was a .500 pitcher in AA when we traded him in 1987)
Travis Fryman
Matt Nokes (before the knee went POP)

Please notice that there is no pitching listed above that produced for Detroit. And do NOT bring me Jeff Weaver, Tony Clark and Bobby Higginson. Their results spoke for themselves in the standings at the end of every year. The nucleus of the 1984 was drafted between 1974 and 1977 (Morris, Parrish, Whitaker, Trammell, Petry, Gibson).

When David Dombrowski took over in the fall of 2001, this team was in horrid shape from top to bottom. <strike>Curtis Granderson was almost ready, and that was it. </strike> There was nothing in this farm system that was remotely ready to help a team sniff .500. That's why, 6 games into the 2002 season, he broomed Phil Garner and Randy Smith, and after that draft, most of the scouting staff. He knew that he had to completely re-construct the farm system that had been barren since the mid-70's, when Jim Campbell began to get old.

In the meantime, he had to put butts in the seats someway. The 2003 team was an unavoidable disaster. That team was 5-7 free agents away from 60 wins. They were bad. The next fall, he had no choice but to overpay for Pudge, and the next season, Magglio. There was no way on God's green earth that any free agent worth his salt was coming here without a major cash incentive. Selling the Tigers as a destination for free agents was like selling real estate next door to Chernobyl. People weren't touching this team with a 10-foot pole. It was either overpay, or they weren't coming. And then get ready for another 110+ loss season, and the Tigers likely would have looking at bankruptcy sometime in 2004. I'm not exaggerating. Remember the rumor about a team having problems making payroll? It was Detroit.

Remember: Pudge's signing led to Magglio's. Magglio's signing led to Kenny Rogers. Rogers' signing led partially to the 2006 World Series. After that it fell apart because the management before Dombrowski had not provided the necessary talent to fill in the gaps, and Dombrowski's prosects had not been given enough time to develop themselves.

Dombrowski's trades, for the most part, have fared quite well. Let's review:

Jurjjens for Renteria: Okay, he ****ed up there. Plain and simple. No argument from me.
Humberto Sanchez and two prospects for Sheffield: Sheffield was very productive until the shoulder fell apart. Sanchez never threw a pitch for the Yankees and wound up with Tommy John surgery. He's now out of baseball, and probably at the drive-thru line at Burger King as we speak. Big boy liked to eat. And the other two prospects have yet to sniff the majors, three years later. The Tigers got more production out of this deal.
Urbina for Polanco: Polanco gave us 4 1/2 very good seasons. Urbina sits in a Venezuelan prison, and will for the next decade. You tell me who got the better of this one.
Ramon Santiago and the other Juan Gonzalez for Carlos Guillen: Ramon Santiago went to Seattle, and wound up back here a year later along side Guillen. Anyone know what happened to the other Juan Gone? Me either.
Weaver for Bonderman, Pena, and I forget the other prospect :o : Weaver was a head case who was a bouncer on Jerry Springer and liked to fight at Hockeytown Cafe, along side Robert Fick. He's bounced around the league more than a basketball. Pena, like Weaver, underachieved in Detroit and is gone again. Bonderman was well on his way until his rib went missing, and the jury is still out on him. When we have our ruling on him, we'll also have the ruling on this trade.
Miller and Maybin for Willis and Cabrera: Cabrera has a home run title and two 100-RBI seasons. Willis can't find home plate without a map. Andrew Miller doesn't exactly know where the strike zone is, either. Cameron Maybin still can't crack the lineup everyday. Big IF here, but if Cabrera can put down the bottle, this one is a no-brainer as well.

Draft picks. All of the last five Tiger 1st round draft picks have seen major league service time within two years of signing with Detroit:

2004: Justin Verlander
2005: Andrew Miller
2006: Cameron Maybin
2007: Rick Porcello
2008: Ryan Perry

I don't think the 2009 pick will progress that fast, but the prior drafting will allow him more time.

Has Dombrowski made mistakes? Absolutely. The Willis contract was a colossal ****-up. Bonderman, at the time, was not. The pitching market was going bat**** at the time, and he was trying to lock up what appeared to be an up-and-coming starter and possible ace to what could have been below-market price. As for Robertson, this team wasn't in the position to take a chance on left-handed starting pitching leave the organization.

Dombrowski basically took over the American League version of the 1962 Mets. It takes a long time to properly build a franchise. He's made mistakes, but I'll take what he's done over 2/3 of the rest of the franchises.

EDIT: Curtis Granderson was a Dombrowski pick in the 3rd round of the '02 draft.

Hammer-

Dombrowski came here with an empty canvas and had nothing to work with. Randy Smith was an absolute joke. What he did up until the last two seasons was nothing short of miraculous, although his boss' checkbook helped. He made major expenditure gaffes that would have gotten most executives in the business world fired.

I think he was given the command to fix it or he'd get fixed. It better work out. IMO it won't, but Ilitch has closed the vault, considering that his GM was spending money faster than our government.
 
Re: Detroit Tigers, 2009, Part III: How long does it take for Leyland to screw this up?

Re: Detroit Tigers, 2009, Part III: How long does it take for Leyland to screw this up?

According to my studies, this would leave the Tigers without a third of their female fan base.

The chart fills out like this:
1/3 Granderson
1/3 Inge
1/3 Verlander

If the Inge rumors are true, the Tigers could be missing 66.7% of their female fans next season.
 
Re: Detroit Tigers, 2009, Part III: How long does it take for Leyland to screw this up?

Re: Detroit Tigers, 2009, Part III: How long does it take for Leyland to screw this up?

Now I am hearing Milton Bradley and Dontrelle Willis' names floating around.
 
Re: Detroit Tigers, 2009, Part III: How long does it take for Leyland to screw this up?

Re: Detroit Tigers, 2009, Part III: How long does it take for Leyland to screw this up?

Believe it or not, I'd rather have Willis, or even eat his contract. Bradley has more baggage than most airlines.
 
Re: Detroit Tigers, 2009, Part III: How long does it take for Leyland to screw this up?

Re: Detroit Tigers, 2009, Part III: How long does it take for Leyland to screw this up?

The dodgers are interested in Verlander...
 
Re: Detroit Tigers, 2009, Part III: How long does it take for Leyland to screw this up?

Re: Detroit Tigers, 2009, Part III: How long does it take for Leyland to screw this up?

The dodgers are interested in Verlander...

But are they more interested then the Tigers are? I hope not.
 
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