Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

[Bob Gray]

Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

Nobody here in Arizona thought Hayworth had much of a shot at unseating McCain. Hayworth was a U.S. Representative and lost that seat to a Dem in the general election. Not a great stepping stone to a successful Senate campaign. I'd have been absolutely shocked in Hayworth even got close to McCain. So, I wouldn't read a whole lot into McCain's victory. Probably the biggest effect was Hayworth caused McCain to shift a little more toward being conservative on some issues, particularly the border. At least short term, it'll be hard for him to shift back without looking like a hypocrit.

 

[amherstblackbear]

Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

Border, campaign finance, don't ask don't tell, energy . . . I dunno, Bob. From here, it looks as if the one position on which McCain *has* been consistent is that he's still in favor of being AZ senator.

 

[Rover]

Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

Nobody here in Arizona thought Hayworth had much of a shot at unseating McCain. Hayworth was a U.S. Representative and lost that seat to a Dem in the general election. Not a great stepping stone to a successful Senate campaign. I'd have been absolutely shocked in Hayworth even got close to McCain. So, I wouldn't read a whole lot into McCain's victory. Probably the biggest effect was Hayworth caused McCain to shift a little more toward being conservative on some issues, particularly the border. At least short term, it'll be hard for him to shift back without looking like a hypocrit.

What I give McCain credit for from a campaigning perspective is going after his opponent long before he got to be a problem. I always laugh at the supposed 'experts' in the media who will blast an incumbent for running ads against his opponent because it 'gives them legitimacy'. Apparently you're supposed to do nothing and get hammered instead. Martha Coakley took that advice and it didn't turn out too well.

Personally though, I think McCain should step aside in favor of his daughter. That chick is a riot.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

Border, campaign finance, don't ask don't tell, energy . . . I dunno, Bob. From here, it looks as if the one position on which McCain *has* been consistent is that he's still in favor of being AZ senator.

That's been his gig all along. The "rogue" thing was just his angle -- it's how a guy who's been in the Senate for 20 years runs against the Senate.

It's not an R or D thing in this case, it's the inherent hypocrisy of running against the very teat you've been suckling at. I'm sure there are plenty of D examples as well. Whenever an incumbent extols the virtue of change, you know the BS is falling heavy.

 

[Bob Gray]

Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

What I give McCain credit for from a campaigning perspective is going after his opponent long before he got to be a problem. I always laugh at the supposed 'experts' in the media who will blast an incumbent for running ads against his opponent because it 'gives them legitimacy'. Apparently you're supposed to do nothing and get hammered instead. Martha Coakley took that advice and it didn't turn out too well.

Personally though, I think McCain should step aside in favor of his daughter. That chick is a riot.

Yah, McCain was smart enough to fight back hard. And Hayworth had weaknesses to attack. But he was forced to engage on issues like the border in ways he probably would have preferred to avoid.

 

[AKJD]

Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

While I agree with your larger point, Alaska has to be **** hard to poll don't you think?

Funny you should mention this. The other day somebody called me for a poll, but apparently forgot to hang up when they realized it was an answering machine. I heard a couple of others talking in the background, and this girl goes "Why is it that Alaska voters are so hard to get ahold of?" and this other guy goes "Cuz they're always out working, it's a <i>huge</i> state, like three times the size of Texas!" So, there ya go

 

[Rover]

Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

Some odd speculation that Murkowski will go 3rd party bid with some successionist party in Alaska! I find this to be a bit far fetched, but if she does Alaska = Florida in political intrigue for this campaign season.

 

[walrus]

Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

If you want a real moderate to fawn over, look at Snowe or Collins up in Maine. At least they're consistent.

Please don't look at them, they suck as much as McCain does. Especially Snowe

 

[Bob Gray]

Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

Some odd speculation that Murkowski will go 3rd party bid with some successionist party in Alaska! I find this to be a bit far fetched, but if she does Alaska = Florida in political intrigue for this campaign season.

A successionist party? Well, how can anybody oppose a party that's in favor of success!

 

[WeWantMore]

Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

Please don't look at them, they suck as much as McCain does. Especially Snowe

Haha, I agree with you. But 5 mn seems to absolutely adore so called "moderates", and like I said, at least they've been more consistent in their positions than McCain (not that that's very hard.)

 

[WeWantMore]

Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

Some odd speculation that Murkowski will go 3rd party bid with some successionist party in Alaska! I find this to be a bit far fetched, but if she does Alaska = Florida in political intrigue for this campaign season.

There's a reason it was odd speculation.
http://community.adn.com/adn/node/152897#ixzz0xeLPPQKT

Alaska Division of Elections Director Gail Fenumiai told me it's too late for Murkowski to file to have her name appear on the ballot as an independent, so that would need to be a write-in effort. There is a Libertarian candidate in the race, Frederick Haase, who could choose to step down. The Libertarian Party could then select a replacement for him on the ballot.

Though like I've said, I'll be kind of surprised if Murkowski doesn't wind up ahead after all the votes are counted.

 

[Old Pio]

Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

Nobody here in Arizona thought Hayworth had much of a shot at unseating McCain. Hayworth was a U.S. Representative and lost that seat to a Dem in the general election. Not a great stepping stone to a successful Senate campaign. I'd have been absolutely shocked in Hayworth even got close to McCain. So, I wouldn't read a whole lot into McCain's victory. Probably the biggest effect was Hayworth caused McCain to shift a little more toward being conservative on some issues, particularly the border. At least short term, it'll be hard for him to shift back without looking like a hypocrit.

Many months ago I suggested that McCain would win and that Hayworth was an amiable gas bag. I didnt live in Phoenix when JD was shilling for "free government money" on late night infomercials. When McCain put that in a campaign spot, Hayworth was dead where he stood.

 

[Red Cloud]

Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

Many months ago I suggested that McCain would win and that Hayworth was an amiable gas bag. I didnt live in Phoenix when JD was shilling for "free government money" on late night infomercials. When McCain put that in a campaign spot, Hayworth was dead where he stood.

I used to respect Hayworth. Then he turned out to be a scumbag birfer.

 

[Jimjamesak]

Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

Don't know much about the difference between the two candidates in Alaska, but one thing that fascinates me is how well "no federal dollars accepted" candidates will fare in right wing states that are big on the federal dole. Alaska and Kentucky both fit that mold. I'm also curious if the incumbent will support the party nominee. Florida is going to have that issue (while McCollum isn't an incumbent of course) of a nasty primary causing some people to stay home. A similar effect will most likely help doom Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas if she wasn't doomed already.

The consensus I got from people I talked to is that Miller would drive away many voters from voting and allow the Dems to easily blast him out of any serious shot at winning.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

The consensus I got from people I talked to is that Miller would drive away many voters from voting and allow the Dems to easily blast him out of any serious shot at winning.

Either way, Alaska totally effed themselves. Murkowski had an Appropriations in with Inouye because of personal connections -- that was the only reason Alaska saw a dollar of federal cash post-Stevens. They've just cut their own major artery, and they're going to bleed out into the snow.

Palin's lovin' it, though. She hates (and is despised by) that entire family.

In other news, Nate covers the coming bloodbath with pretty pictures.

 

[WeWantMore]

Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

I guess the Libertarians are saying they'd be open to letting Murkowski run on their ticket.

That's absolutely ridiculous. Murkowski is nowhere close to a Libertarian.

 

[Rover]

Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

Either way, Alaska totally effed themselves. Murkowski had an Appropriations in with Inouye because of personal connections -- that was the only reason Alaska saw a dollar of federal cash post-Stevens. They've just cut their own major artery, and they're going to bleed out into the snow.

Palin's lovin' it, though. She hates (and is despised by) that entire family.

In other news, Nate covers the coming bloodbath with pretty pictures.

Hey, I'm a big believer in you get what you vote for. If Miller is where Alaskans want to be for their representation, all I ask is that they follow through and actually start refusing federal dollars. Of my limited knowledge of his candidacy, I thought I saw a quote from him saying how Alaskans need to be more self reliant and less federal govt dependent (aka the anti-Stevens). If elected I'd like to see some action in that regard - same for Rand Paul.

Regarding Nate, he needs to relax a little. His model has Angle winning in Nevada for example, when that race has been moving away from her. North Dakota, Indiana, Arkansas and Delaware I think we can safely predict at this point. Connecticut also. However, some of these races either don't have the primaries decided yet or one or both of the contestants either just got nominated or are relatively unknown. When ads start going up regularly and debates are held, that's when things will firm up a bit. Right now polling is all over the place and widely inaccurate (see Alaska and Florida). I don't mind making predictions, but I would not put a dollar on any of these races yet (NH, PA, OH, NC, FL, OH, MO, WI, CO, WA, AK, NV, KY, IL). Note: I left out CA as I find it hard to see Fiorina winning that race, but if you'd like to include that in the toss up category be my guest.

 

[FadeToBlack&Gold]

Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

I guess the Libertarians are saying they'd be open to letting Murkowski run on their ticket.

That's absolutely ridiculous. Murkowski is nowhere close to a Libertarian.

Wouldn't be the first time they've sold out just to play a bigger spoiler role.

 

[Rover]

Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

Wouldn't be the first time they've sold out just to play a bigger spoiler role.

Could she win though? As in would she capture the middle and some Dems especially if the Dem candidate is weak? That was the key for Lieberman's bid (weak GOP candidate) and is the key for Crist in Florida (weak Dem).

Again not being familiar with the state too much it seems that the primary had a decent turnout, so I'm not sure there's a lot of new voters to be had in the general election but on the flip side with a small population you don't have to flip too many voters to win.

 

[WeWantMore]

Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

Could she win though? As in would she capture the middle and some Dems especially if the Dem candidate is weak? That was the key for Lieberman's bid (weak GOP candidate) and is the key for Crist in Florida (weak Dem).

Again not being familiar with the state too much it seems that the primary had a decent turnout, so I'm not sure there's a lot of new voters to be had in the general election but on the flip side with a small population you don't have to flip too many voters to win.

I'd imagine she would get a decent percentage of the vote, that's not the point though.

The Libertarian Party is supposed to stand for limited government and the like, how does holding up a candidate like Murkowski, who's never met a bailout or handout she didn't like, help them advance those goals?