Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries
Interesting rumors going on that fresh off the heels of their (apparent) Alaska victory, Tea Partiers have Rep. Castle in their crosshairs in Delaware.
I wouldn't have thought this possible previously, but like Alaska its a small state where a little swing in voter sentiment can go a long way. There's no way Castle can run from his moderate record. Tea Baggers are going for a 600K ad buy to boost their candidate. Much like AK, this one hasn't been polled lately either.
In the spirit of full disclosure, I'm not expecting anything but a Castle win the primaries and the general election. However, this is yet another example of the folly of talking heads predicting races this far out. The problem as I see it is that even normally solid predictors (Rothenberg, Cook, Nate Silver) are taking these races where a moderate Republican is running, and assuming that they'll hold the Tea Party activists enthusiasm but then also keep their normal appeal to the middle. Examples are: WA (Rossi), NV (Lowden), CO (Norton), IL (Kirk), NH (Ayotte), DE (Castle). (Kentucky maybe and I'm not including Alaska because nobody had it on their radar.)
IF an establishment candidate can keep the middle but appeal to the hard core righties, sure - they've got a great shot. Problem is for Lowden and Norton (and Murkowski) that was a tightrope they couldn't walk. Time will tell with Ayotte (Lamontaine just got the Union Leader endorsement) and Castle but in all of these races with a primary remaining in either party we really need to see who makes the finish line after the Alaska surprise.