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Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

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Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

The "New Media" can cut both ways, of course. It is interesting to see trends in how quickly different groups "catch on" to new trends. Anything that decentralizes control over messaging scares the party bosses on both sides. There's a rough balance between the left's academic superiority and the right's corporate superiority that ensures neither side will build a big technological lead.

I think over time you'll see "new media" tending to help the insurgent party at any given time. It takes fewer keystrokes to destroy than create, as anybody on the Cafe knows.
 
Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

Kepler said:
The "New Media" can cut both ways, of course. It is interesting to see trends in how quickly different groups "catch on" to new trends. Anything that decentralizes control over messaging scares the party bosses on both sides. There's a rough balance between the left's academic superiority and the right's corporate superiority that ensures neither side will build a big technological lead.

I think over time you'll see "new media" tending to help the insurgent party at any given time. It takes fewer keystrokes to destroy than create, as anybody on the Cafe knows.
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That's the key, it can cut both ways. In the past, given the superiority of the GOP in getting their narrative out to the press and the incompetence of the Dems to respond, it was mostly cutting one way. Not blaming the Repubs for that, its a good deal if you can get it. However, the last few years have given us a more level playing field.
 
Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

Rover said:
That's the key, it can cut both ways. In the past, given the superiority of the GOP in getting their narrative out to the press and the incompetence of the Dems to respond, it was mostly cutting one way. Not blaming the Repubs for that, its a good deal if you can get it. However, the last few years have given us a more level playing field.
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The granularity of the message has leap-frogged. Once liberal union and cultural publications reached more people, more directly, than conservative newspapers. Then conservative talk radio reached more people, more directly than liberal media. Now the internet, with at least a temporary overall liberal slant, reaches more people, more directly than conservative media.

Eventually each of us will be being personally addressed and engaged at the individual level by other individuals... oh, wait, that's exactly what this is.

But at each step central control weakens. Hearst could keep his papers' editorials in lock step. The mags' editors all graduated from Harvard but had slightly different voices. The talk radio hosts all dropped out of different colleges but at least they all had the same half-read copy of The Fountainhead in the john, with the rape scene dog-eared. Each stage is less coherent and less under control -- it's sort of a triumph of democracy, for good or ill.
 
Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

Evidently Nevada voters aren't too keen on Sue Lowden's "Chickens for Doctors" scheme. She's dropped to 3rd in Republican primary polls. Sharron Angle is now the leader, although I'm not sure how electable she is. It would be a darn shame if Harry Reid somehow bumbles his way to another term.
 
Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

WeWantMore said:
Evidently Nevada voters aren't too keen on Sue Lowden's "Chickens for Doctors" scheme. She's dropped to 3rd in Republican primary polls. Sharron Angle is now the leader, although I'm not sure how electable she is. It would be a darn shame if Harry Reid somehow bumbles his way to another term.
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I think she has that confused.

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Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

WeWantMore said:
Evidently Nevada voters aren't too keen on Sue Lowden's "Chickens for Doctors" scheme. She's dropped to 3rd in Republican primary polls. Sharron Angle is now the leader, although I'm not sure how electable she is. It would be a darn shame if Harry Reid somehow bumbles his way to another term.
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You bring up the most important point of the campaign after the economy. How good are the challengers going to be this year? If teapartiers continue to win primaries, essentually the GOP is in for a penny in for a pound. Rand Paul, Angle, as well as the NH Senate race, California, and numerous House races. Also keep an eye on McCain in Arizona, as with Angle these upstarts tend to close very quickly near the end of the primaries. I'm not entirely sure his pivot to the right puts him in the clear.
 
Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

walrus said:
I doubt Abbott left Collins to lose so I think he wins for the repubs.
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Looks like Abbott left Susie for a fourth-place finish in the primary.

LePage is the nominee. Libby is ahead of Rowe by less than 6000 votes, so it's too close to call.

The bond issues all passed; the tax proposal was defeated.

My favorite election of the night has to be the primary for the Green Party in Maine's 119th House District where Christian McNeil won a massive victory 57-43% over his challenger. Sure, 57% sounds good, but then you realize it was 21-16 and it's not quite as impressive. Still, the odds are pretty good he'll get more votes in the general than the GOP candidate. :D

Edit: The Portland Press Herald just called it for Libby. No numbers have changed...the margin's still 5920. I guess the editor wanted to get to bed. :p
 
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Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

Rover mentioned the South Carolina gov race a few pages back, Nikki Haley, the candidate accused of having an affair, got 49% of the vote, she'll head to a runoff, but it looks pretty good for her. You never really can know I guess, but I think the affair story was a load of bull. One of her opponents referred to her as a "raghead" , so that should give you an idea of the tenor of the race.


Anyways, Kepler, you see Blanche winning as an escape? I think either Dem candidate is pretty well doomed come November.

I like how Nevada has the "none of these" option on their ballots, that option actually beat two candidates in the Republican gov primary. On the Dem side in that primary, Harry Reid's kid, Rory, won the nomination. Hopefully voters can reject two Reids come November.
 
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Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

Former Eagle Jon Runyan won the GOP primary in NJ's 3rd district.
 
Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

WeWantMore said:
Rover mentioned the South Carolina gov race a few pages back, Nikki Haley, the candidate accused of having an affair, got 49% of the vote, she'll head to a runoff, but it looks pretty good for her. You never really can know I guess, but I think the affair story was a load of bull. One of her opponents referred to her as a "raghead" , so that should give you an idea of the tenor of the race.
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Prompting vintage Stewart.
http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/m...south-carolina---the-race-to-replace-disgrace

Larry Marchant - bestest lobbyist evar.
 
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Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

Interesting night but only one surprise (Lincoln).

Regarding Nevada, I think the big question here is going to be funding. Rand Paul has the financial backing to whether and respond to attacks on his occasional off the wall statements. Right now Angle doesn't. I noticed some operative whipping out the Scott Brown card for the umpteenth time, but I doubt Reid is going not campaign until the last week unlike Brown's opponent. Privatizing social security in this current market for example isn't exactly a winning issue. Simply put, Reid needs to make his opponent as unpopular as he is, and then beat the "who has more clout, a freshman Senator or the Majority Leader" drum. I'd say he's 50/50 right now in a race I thought he'd lose a few weeks ago.

Don't see Lincoln winning in Arkansas. Didn't really see Halter winning either. A good candidate makes all the difference. Nevada, Colorado, now Illinois, Connecticut; the GOP needed some better recruits. Jury's still out in New Hampshire. Contrast that with North Dakota, Indiana, Arkansas and Delaware.

Regarding South Carolina, this one is a first. I've never seen the cheating card used on a female candidate. If this isn't true, its an unprecedented smear. If it is, she'd better hope it doesn't break a week before election day.
 
Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

WeWantMore said:
Anyways, Kepler, you see Blanche winning as an escape? I think either Dem candidate is pretty well doomed come November.
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"Escape" is probably too strong. It takes their chances of winning from 20% to 30%. Blanche is better on the issues for AS, but she's got incumbent-stench.

I wonder how many times Harry Reid voted for Angle?
 
Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

Rover said:
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Don't see Lincoln winning in Arkansas. Didn't really see Halter winning either. A good candidate makes all the difference. Nevada, Colorado, now Illinois, Connecticut; the GOP needed some better recruits. Jury's still out in New Hampshire. Contrast that with North Dakota, Indiana, Arkansas and Delaware.

Regarding South Carolina, this one is a first. I've never seen the cheating card used on a female candidate. If this isn't true, its an unprecedented smear. If it is, she'd better hope it doesn't break a week before election day.
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I naturally take a rosier view, but I think the GOP is fine in Colorado. In Illinois, Kirk was the smart pick, pretty moderate, but if that's what it takes to win in Illinois, so be it. Of course the award thing is a big deal now, but I'm still fine with Kirk as a candidate. Connecticut they had the right guy in Simmons, just somehow managed to go the other way with McMahon. That was never really going to be a realistic pick up though once Blumenthal jumped in.

If it is true, Haley has promised to step down if ever proven. Now, maybe that's a little ambiguous as to what constitutes "proof", but still that's a pretty bold, respectable move in my opinion.
 
Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

Regarding Blanche Lincoln, there's a article about how the Dems shouldn't spend any money on her race because she's doomed. I think they should wait it out for awhile and stick with what just worked. If its true that Bill Clinton brought her over the finish line in the primaries, the DNC needs to put him on the case of winning her the general election. While I don't know if he can pull that off, what I do know is that combined with spending a few bucks forces the GOP to do the same even though they have less resources and have to fund more challengers than the Dems do. That's a worthwhile investment.
 
Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

Rover said:
Regarding Blanche Lincoln, there's a article about how the Dems shouldn't spend any money on her race because she's doomed. I think they should wait it out for awhile and stick with what just worked. If its true that Bill Clinton brought her over the finish line in the primaries, the DNC needs to put him on the case of winning her the general election. While I don't know if he can pull that off, what I do know is that combined with spending a few bucks forces the GOP to do the same even though they have less resources and have to fund more challengers than the Dems do. That's a worthwhile investment.
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Also, it keeps him away from other states' hoochies.
 
Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

Conservative bias in NYT election predictions??? :confused: Read on!:mad:

http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/senate

If you want to tell me that NV, CO, IL, MO, OH, and NH are toss ups, while open seats in IN, DE, KY, and ND are favored by the GOP - sure, I can agree with that.

But how is Connecticut considered a toss up? Linda McMahon's own poll has her down double digits. Liberal bias my arse. ;)

I'd also wonder about Florida being leans Republican. I guess nobody bothered to inform them that the guy leading the race left the GOP a few months ago. :D
 
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