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Death to the Incumbent! Part Two: Now with more Death.

Re: Death to the Incumbent! Part Two: Now with more Death.

Rimbaud said:
I agree. If it's one thing we learned from 8 years under Bush II, it was that it was all Clinton's fault.
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I blame Pitt the Elder.

I voted. I doubt I even impacted the local incinerator ballot measure let alone the future of the country, but I voted.
 
Re: Death to the Incumbent! Part Two: Now with more Death.

WeWantMore said:
I like Silver's presentation and all that, but wasn't there a stat from '08 where if you had just taken a calculator and averaged the polls yourself you would have gotten just as close as he got?
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I think that's why these blogs are widely referenced... most of us are too lazy to take a calculator and plug in all the various polls; saves us the trouble. ("if you had played hockey every day since you were 3, you could be playing in the NHL yourself... why watch it?")
Silver does tend to use about 2000 extra words in every post though, including the boring pre-apologies for why he might be wrong.
Also: don't these two agree on the numbers (pretty much) anyway?
 
Re: Death to the Incumbent! Part Two: Now with more Death.

geezer said:
I think that's why these blogs are widely referenced... most of us are too lazy to take a calculator and plug in all the various polls; saves us the trouble. ("if you had played hockey every day since you were 3, you could be playing in the NHL yourself... why watch it?")
Silver does tend to use about 2000 extra words in every post though, including the boring pre-apologies for why he might be wrong.
Also: don't these two agree on the numbers (pretty much) anyway?
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Right, maybe the calculator example was little simplistic. However, I was talking more about someone like Pollster who averages all the polls, but doesn't spend 1000 words waxing poetic about their precious "model".
 
Re: Death to the Incumbent! Part Two: Now with more Death.

and then elections like 1994 happen, and screw up all the models.
 
Re: Death to the Incumbent! Part Two: Now with more Death.

Angle has dropped 20 points on Intrade today! She's barely over tossup by that indicator.
 
Re: Death to the Incumbent! Part Two: Now with more Death.

geezer said:
Angle has dropped 20 points on Intrade today! She's barely over tossup by that indicator.
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Yeah, exit polls, unreliable as they are, have her tied with Reid. Factor in that Reid had the early voting advantage, and that's bad news. Wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy too early though.
 
Re: Death to the Incumbent! Part Two: Now with more Death.

Aqua Buddha officially has a new minion to do his bidding in the Senate, AP calls Kentucky for Rand Paul.
 
Re: Death to the Incumbent! Part Two: Now with more Death.

WeWantMore said:
Yeah, exit polls, unreliable as they are, have her tied with Reid. Factor in that Reid had the early voting advantage, and that's bad news. Wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy too early though.
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Silver has Reid with just a 20% chance to hold his seat, I wouldn't worry. My wife, a straight ticket Dem, is actively rooting for him to lose she loathes him as caucus leader so much. Hopefully even if he wins he will be summarily deposed.

Current predictions are 52-48 and +57. All the results so far are right on beam. I still think they will trend a little more GOP. It's just that kind of year.
 
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Re: Death to the Incumbent! Part Two: Now with more Death.

There's not enough credit in the world to give to the people on CSPAN. Desperately trying to keep a straight face as people call in and rant.
 
Re: Death to the Incumbent! Part Two: Now with more Death.

WeWantMore said:
There's not enough credit in the world to give to the people on CSPAN. Desperately trying to keep a straight face as people call in and rant.
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Is the normal morning guy on? He's wonderful.
 
Re: Death to the Incumbent! Part Two: Now with more Death.

Bunch of weird ballot items. Legalize Marajuana, putting Right to Bear Arms on State Constitution...at a bunch of states (note not the rest of the Bill of Rights), some right to hunt deal and something in RI about changing the states name.
 
Re: Death to the Incumbent! Part Two: Now with more Death.

Manchin wins WV, and thus the Dems are definitely keeping the Senate.
 
Re: Death to the Incumbent! Part Two: Now with more Death.

5mn_Major said:
Bunch of weird ballot items. Legalize Marajuana, putting Right to Bear Arms on State Constitution...at a bunch of states (note not the rest of the Bill of Rights), some right to hunt deal and something in RI about changing the states name.
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The official state name of RI is "The State of Rhode Island and Providence Plantations." Personally, I think they should keep it, it's the classiest thing about the state. :)
 
Re: Death to the Incumbent! Part Two: Now with more Death.

Boucher lost in Virginia, that was rated as the 85th most likely seat to flip. However, other more likely seats haven't. So, definitely only a moderate wave so far.

Edit: And NBC is now the first to go on record with a prediction of GOP House control.
 
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