D3 Women?

[tjoneslo]

I will be shocked if Colby and Wesleyan hang around in the PWR to the end, but stranger things have happened

This is a weird artifact of how the PWR is computed and the way the NESCAC teams end up playing. All of them, even the bottom ranked Conn College, maintain a >0.500 out of conference win record. And this is pretty consistent year after year. I'd have to pull apart the numbers again, but if your team wins a game against an OOC opponent, it brings up the whole league by a fraction. And every team in the league is doing that it will pull up the whole league higher into the rankings than you might expect.

I would put this down as evidence of your assertion there isn't enough data in the games to get good results from the PWR.

 

[Scott_TG]

The NESCAC non-conference schedules are kind of middling this season. We get some good ones we normally get like Midd vs Norwich, Williams vs Endicott but there are also games against bad teams like Colby vs UNE or Trinity vs Plymouth State.

Some of these are already postponed, and if enough non-conference never plays maybe the NESCAC really can steal the Pool Cs this way...River Falls and Eau Claire definitely should be rooting on Endicott when they take on Hamilton twice and then Williams as well as the Plattsburgh Cardinals against Williams.

 

[PrezdeJohnson09]

The NESCAC non-conference schedules are kind of middling this season. We get some good ones we normally get like Midd vs Norwich, Williams vs Endicott but there are also games against bad teams like Colby vs UNE or Trinity vs Plymouth State.

Some of these are already postponed, and if enough non-conference never plays maybe the NESCAC really can steal the Pool Cs this way...River Falls and Eau Claire definitely should be rooting on Endicott when they take on Hamilton twice and then Williams as well as the Plattsburgh Cardinals against Williams.

Trinity has also beaten Norwich this year, so that's another feather in the cap of the NESCAC.

Not sure what the rest of the NESCAC has for non-conference left, but Norwich still has meetings with Conn. College, Amherst and Middlebury. There is still time to bring their ridiculous out of conference record down a bit, but still these other leagues need to get stronger.

Norwich's best win is against a 7-5-1 Adrian team....

 

[tjoneslo]

Other side of this: Looking at the RPI seven of the top 8 teams by Strength of Schedule are all NESCAC teams. Only UW-River Falls interrupts a perfect sweep. They're a tough league to play in and against.

Or the OOC records at 25-4-3.

Sorry, I'm finding all the new-to-me stats on the site. Ignore me.

 

[Scott_TG]

River Falls and Stevens Point are moving their game today to Sunday due to Covid protocols. For some reason, WIAC covid protocols will have this re-scheduled game not count as a conference game, it will be considered non-conference instead.

Saturday's game will take place as scheduled and will count towards the WIAC standings.

St. Scholastica's games against St. Mary's have also been canceled for this weekend. There was a replacement home-and-home with non-conference UW-Superior scheduled instead but that has now also been canceled. Per MIAC policy, the CSS-St. Mary's games will not be rescheduled.

 

[Scott_TG]

With conference play having resumed this weekend things are starting to shake up.

Some highlights:

- Middlebury gets taken to OT by Wesleyan on Friday but prevails 1-0. They win the rematch by a handier 4-1.
- Endicott has two close games with Nichols but wins both.
- Plattsburgh sweeps the weekend against Oswego and Morrisville
- Elmira sweeps Southern Maine and Salem State
- Eau Claire's home and home with Superior is canceled.
- River Falls beats Stevens Point 3-2. Tomorrow's rematch is non-conference because it was originally supposed to be on Friday.
- GAC sweeps St. Olaf
- Amherst and Williams split.
- Lake Forest sweeps Concordia-Wisconsin
- Colby, Adrian, SNC all inactive.

Here's what the field looks like if the season ended today:
[TABLE="width: 224"]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl64"]Bid[/TD]
[TD="class: xl64"]School[/TD]
[TD="class: xl64"]PWR Rank[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl63"]CCC[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63"]Endicott[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]14[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl63"]MIAC[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63"]GAC[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl63"]NCHA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63"]Lake Forest[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]22[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl63"]NEHC[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63"]Elmira[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl63"]NESCAC[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63"]Middlebury[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl63"]NEWHL[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63"]Plattsburgh[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl63"]UCHC[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63"]Nazareth[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl63"]Pool C[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63"]UW-River Falls[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl63"]Pool C[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63"]Colby[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl63"]Pool C[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63"]UW-Eau Claire[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]6[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

With both WIAC contenders in at Pool C in this configuration, we'd see a 6-4 split between East and West teams which could lead to Lake Forest not having to play a first-round despite being the lowest team in PWR in the tourney in order to avoid a QF flight.

This pool would probably be seeded like this:

Endicott/Colby vs Nazareth
Elmira/Plattsburgh vs Middlebury
Lake Forest vs UW-River Falls
GAC vs UW-Eau Claire

 

[gojackets]

I've been out of the loop for awhille...what happened to collegehockeystats?

 

[tjoneslo]

I don't know. It just seems to not be being updated. If you dig around on this site all the same statistics seem to be there and updated regularly. I miss the speed and simplicity of collegehockeystats though.

 

[Scott_TG]

The person running it retired from my understanding. It is there cor historical. But the NCAA has their own stats page now with a lot of the data. I wish it would have the line chart style box scores among some other things missing

 

[Scott_TG]

The person running it retired from my understanding. It is there cor historical. But the NCAA has their own stats page now with a lot of the data. I wish it would have the line chart style box scores among some other things missing

 

[tjoneslo]

Well, drat. The Middlebury - Plattsburg game schedule for today (and rescheduled from last weekend) was canceled. I was looking forward to that game. Set the top seed for the polls. Well, this weekend is the Middlebury-Colby matchup, which should be exciting.

 

[Scott_TG]

Even with the 1 vs 2 matchup canceled there was still plenty of action:

Elmira defeats Trinity 4-1 (ENG).
Corltand defeats Wesleyan 2-1.
Norwich defeats Amherst 1-0 with Aimee Headland scoring the lone goal.
Oswego defeats Morrisville 8-0
Southern Maine defeats UNE 3-1. USM took the lead on a delayed penalty goal for too many players...
JWU defeats Plymouth State 3-0
Worcester State defeats Curry 9-1.
Stevens Point defeats Marian 7-1.

 

[Scott_TG]

Tonight's River Falls vs Superior game was canceled. Saturday's rematch also canceled.

Adrian defeats 0-12 Lawrence by an 8-0 score.

Three postponements tomorrow:

Buffalo State vs Cortland (NEWHL)
Potsdam vs Canton (NEWHL)
CSS vs St. Benedict (MIAC)

Canton and Plattsburgh, Oswego and Potsdam, and Buff State vs Cortland have been postponed. Oswego and Plattsburgh will play a second game on Saturday that will not count in the NEWHL standings. Their game on Friday will proceed as scheduled and count towards the NEWHL standings.

 

[spwood]

Plattsburgh scores 6 unanswered in the last 30 minutes to come back and defeat Oswego 6-3. Goaltending continues to be an issue for the Cards. The starter tonight (I missed who started) gave up 3 goals on 6 shots and was pulled…

 

[Scott_TG]

Plattsburgh scores 6 unanswered in the last 30 minutes to come back and defeat Oswego 6-3. Goaltending continues to be an issue for the Cards. The starter tonight (I missed who started) gave up 3 goals on 6 shots and was pulled…

Beaubien started. She's the one whose been in goal as we've beaten the good teams after the disaster at the Cardinal-Panther. Davis was passable but she makes me nervous with every opposing shot.

In other action:

Manhattanville defeats Utica 3-1. This denies Utica crucial points in their bid to finish ahead of Nazareth going into the UCHC tournament.
Norwich defeats Castleton 6-0.
Suffolk defeats Nichols 2-1.
UMB defeats Salem State 7-3.
Arcadia defeats Neumann 6-3.
Adrian defeats Finlandia 7-1.
SNC leading Lake Forest 2-1 after 2.
St. Catherine's leading Augbsurg 2-1 after 2.
Bethel leads St. Olaf 1-0 early in the 3rd.
Hamline up 2-0 on St. Mary's early in the 3rd.

Endicott vs Hamilton canceled
GAC vs Concordia (MN) postponed

 

[Scott_TG]

Elmira Fan ​Elmira Fan ​Elmira Fan we saw Nazareth's first loss, a non-conference game to Elmira who won 2-1. This sends Nazareth from first to eighth in the PWR.
Plattsburgh with another comeback against Oswego, this time only a 1 goal deficit. Final was 4-1.
Eau Claire over Stevens Point 1-0
Williams over Bowdoin 5-1.
Hamline 5-1 over St. Mary's. They are now tied for 2nd behind GAC in MIAC play.
Adrian was down 2-1 to winless Finlandia heading into the third but they took a 3-2 lead by the midpoint of that final frame for the final score.
CSS defeats St. Benedict.
Gusties defeat Concordia (MN) 5-1.
Middlebury completed the sweep of Colby with a 2-1 win.

Lake Forest and Adrian are tied for the NCHA lead. They play each other next weekend.

If the season ended today, this would be the field (LF has the tiebreaker over Adrian if I read them right).

[TABLE="border: 0, cellpadding: 0, cellspacing: 0"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 64"] [TABLE="border: 1, cellpadding: 1, width: 500"]
[TR]
[TD]Bid[/TD]
[TD]School[/TD]
[TD]PWR Rnk[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]CCC[/TD]
[TD]Endicott[/TD]
[TD]11[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]MIAC[/TD]
[TD]Gustavus[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]NCHA[/TD]
[TD]Lake Forest[/TD]
[TD]30[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]NEHC[/TD]
[TD]Elmira[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]NESCAC[/TD]
[TD]Middlebury[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]NEWHL[/TD]
[TD]Plattsburgh[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]UCHC[/TD]
[TD]Nazareth[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Pool C[/TD]
[TD]River Falls[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Pool C[/TD]
[TD]Eau Claire[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Pool C[/TD]
[TD]Colby[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

With the field above this was the bracket I came up with that avoids flights:

First round
Endicott at Nazareth
Colby at Elmira

QF
Endicott/Naz at Plattsburgh
Lake Forest at River Falls
GAC at Eau Claire
Colby/Elmira at Middlebury

There would be an option to manipulate the seeds to swap Colby and Naz to avoid intra-conference before the semis. In fact by doing that the only possible intra-conference would be an Eau Claire vs River Falls NCAA championship.

 

[PrezdeJohnson09]

Big showdown in Middlebury on Tuesday night. Norwich is red-hot winning seven in a row against the undefeated and No. 1-ranked Middlebury Panthers.

Norwich could desperately use a signature win on its resume and help in the pairwise. Middlebury probably locks up the No. 1 rank in the PWR with a win barring a collapse in the rest of its season.

 

[tjoneslo]

And Middlebury remains undefeated, winning 2-0. That was an exciting game, and well played by Norwich. The first 9:30 of the game saw no stops, just end to end action.

Next up for Midd is Trinity at Trinity. This should be an interesting match up. This past weekend Trinity lost to Colby first by a blowout score of 7-0, then into an overtime loss 2-1. Trinity is always an interesting challenge as you are never sure which of the two versions of the team will show up. Trinity is short handed, but should be healthier by next weekend.

 

[PrezdeJohnson09]

And Middlebury remains undefeated, winning 2-0. That was an exciting game, and well played by Norwich. The first 9:30 of the game saw no stops, just end to end action.

Next up for Midd is Trinity at Trinity. This should be an interesting match up. This past weekend Trinity lost to Colby first by a blowout score of 7-0, then into an overtime loss 2-1. Trinity is always an interesting challenge as you are never sure which of the two versions of the team will show up. Trinity is short handed, but should be healthier by next weekend.

Midd flexed it’s muscle and showed why it’s the #1 team in the country tonight. Impressive skating and passing all night. Norwich’s Alexa Berg played a near perfect game in goal to keep the Cadets in it.

Looking like all roads are going to run through Kenyon Arena later this year in March…

 

[Scott_TG]

Midd flexed it’s muscle and showed why it’s the #1 team in the country tonight. Impressive skating and passing all night. Norwich’s Alexa Berg played a near perfect game in goal to keep the Cadets in it.

Looking like all roads are going to run through Kenyon Arena later this year in March…

I was splitting my attention between this game and Plattsburgh vs Canton.

I agree with you about the goaltending, there were spurts it looked like it was Berg vs. the entire Panthers lineup.

I'm not sure if anyone can beat Middlebury, even though many of the scores are close. I think Plattsburgh, Elmira, Norwich would need to play a perfect game AND have quite a bit of puck luck on their side. Gustavus with all of their shutouts this season or River Falls with Hoff on a tear might be able to. It depends on how the bracket shapes up. I'm going to try and watch a game or two of those two and Eau Claire as we get closer to the tourney.