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D1 Final eight

Re: D1 Final eight

Skate79 said:
Does the HE final mean anything or is UConn safe? Sounds like they need to win tomorrow just to be sure.

So if OSU and Cornell win, Clarkson could be out and if UConn wins, would that send them to Cambridge as the 5th seed? Or do they stay at #7? How far does UNH drop if Cornell and OSU win?

I know, I know a lot of questions but it seems like there is more uncertainty this year than in any other year.
Click to expand...

Clarkson moved ahead of UNH on the PWR and is now 5th. What I don't understand is how Harvard is still ahead of Clarkson, even though Clarkson has gone 2-0-1 against Harvard. Can someone explain how that is possible.
 
Re: D1 Final eight

PROJECTIONS IF OSU WINS THE WCHA
(If OSU loses to UMD in WCHA final, projections are same as UMD wins, Minnesota loses as my previous post)

Notes on the two "Cornell wins" cases --

I think there's plenty of reason to be uncertain whether the committee would take Clarkson or UNH in this case. The RPIs will be razor thin apart, and Clarkson wins H2H and common opponents. My guess would be Clarkson based on recent history. (note Clarkson is No. 5 in the PWR now). I think if Clarkson loses, UNH will be ahead in RPI by a razor thin margin, UNH will be ahead in TUC criterion, Clarkson is ahead in common opponents and head-to-head.

If the pick was Clarkson, you may still have Clarkson@Harvard in the quarterfinal and they wouldn't swap them to avoid intraconference because of bracket integrity, but really who knows. BU-Harvard and UConn-Harvard are cheap, but too unfair to the WCHA schools.

-------------------------------------
If UConn & Cornell win

OSU @ Mercyhurst
Clarkson @ Harvard

Cornell @ UMD
UConn @ Minnesota

out: BU
Harvard @ Minnesota/UMD loser

-----------------------------------
If BU & Cornell win

OSU @ Mercyhurst
Clarkson @ Harvard

BU @ UMD
Cornell @ Minnesota

out: UConn

--------------------
If BU & Clarkson win

OSU @ Mercyhurst
UNH @ Clarkson

BU @ UMD
Harvard @ Minnesota

out: Cornell, UConn
------------------------
If UConn & Clarkson win

OSU @ Mercyhurst
UNH @ Clarkson

UConn @ UMD
Harvard @ Minnesota

out: Cornell, BU
----------------------
 
Re: D1 Final eight

gotice said:
Clarkson moved ahead of UNH on the PWR and is now 5th. What I don't understand is how Harvard is still ahead of Clarkson, even though Clarkson has gone 2-0-1 against Harvard. Can someone explain how that is possible.
Click to expand...

Short answer --

against teams not named "Clarkson," Harvard has a 20-5-4 record

against teams not named "Harvard," Clarkson has a 21-10-5 record.

You can go 2-0-1 against an opponent, but if you lose 5 more games than them outside of the head-to-head, it's tough to stay ahead of them in the rankings. (the actual criteria are record against common opponents, record against teams with RPI > .500, and ratings percentage index which is record & strength of schedule.... the two teams had pretty similar schedules, so the other three criteria pretty much amount to overall record)

Clarkson will (deservedly) move ahead of Harvard if they win the ECAC.

If Clarkson doesn't win the ECAC, they will be (deservedly) behind Harvard. You can't close the regular season 1-4-2 and then go only 3-2 in your conference tournament, and expect to host. If the committee rates Clarkson over Harvard without a Clarkson ECAC tourney win, it would basically mean they didn't care at all that Harvard had a much, much better February, and I think that'd be absurd.
 
Re: D1 Final eight

dave1381 said:
Short answer --

against teams not named "Clarkson," Harvard has a 20-5-4 record

against teams not named "Harvard," Clarkson has a 21-10-5 record.

You can go 2-0-1 against an opponent, but if you lose 5 more games than them outside of the head-to-head, it's tough to stay ahead of them in the rankings. (the actual criteria are record against common opponents, record against teams with RPI > .500, and ratings percentage index which is record & strength of schedule.... the two teams had pretty similar schedules, so the other three criteria pretty much amount to overall record)

Clarkson will (deservedly) move ahead of Harvard if they win the ECAC.

If Clarkson doesn't win the ECAC, they will be (deservedly) behind Harvard. You can't close the regular season 1-4-2 and then go only 3-2 in your conference tournament, and expect to host. If the committee rates Clarkson over Harvard without a Clarkson ECAC tourney win, it would basically mean they didn't care at all that Harvard had a much, much better February, and I think that'd be absurd.
Click to expand...

Thanks for clarifying.
 
Re: D1 Final eight

dave1381 said:
If BU & Cornell win

BU @ Mercyhurst
UNH @ Harvard

Cornell @ Minnesota/UMD winner
Clarkson @ Minnesota/UMD loser

out: UConn

--------------------
If BU & Clarkson win

BU @ Mercyhurst
UNH @ Clarkson

UConn @ Minnesota/UMD winner
Harvard @ Minnesota/UMD loser

out: Cornell
------------------------
If UConn & Clarkson win

Cornell @ Mercyhurst
UNH @ Clarkson

UConn @ Minnesota/UMD winner
Harvard @ Minnesota/UMD loser

out: BU
----------------------
If UConn & Cornell win

Cornell @ Mercyhurst
UNH @ Harvard

UConn @ Minnesota/UMD winner
Clarkson @ Minnesota/UMD loser

out: BU
Click to expand...
OK, these are the relevant scenarios. Clarkson and UNH are surely in now. I don't see much ambiguity at all in these projections.
 
Re: D1 Final eight

One other observation. Cornell by 4pm (barring a 5 OT game in Providence) will know if they need to win to make NCAAs. UConn does not have that luxury.
 
Re: D1 Final eight

One additional observation, recapping something I raised before ---

If Cornell loses, regardless of what BU does Sunday, BU will win the comparison against Cornell in the USCHO Pairwise Rankings. The reason why is Clarkson is a common opponent of BU and Cornell. The loss would drop Cornell's record to 6-5-2, while BU's is at 4-3-2 no matter what.

Does that change my projections for the BU/Cornell lose case? No. Cornell is still ahead by a mile in RPI, which is the most important criterion, because it takes into account the whole season. The common opponent comparison isn't even robust to the method used to calculate it.

Common Opponent
Providence: Cornell 0-2, BU 2-1
SLU: Cornell 0-1-1, BU 0-0-1
Clarkson: Cornell 1-2 (assume loss), BU 0-1
Princeton: Cornell 2-0, BU 1-1
Yale: Cornell 1-0-1, BU 1-0
Brown: Cornell 2-0, BU 0-0-1

If you equal-weight each opponent, Cornell actually has the better record. And in terms of actual opponents, each team did better against 3 opponents. This is a dead heat, and I don't see it playing any role in deciding the comparison.

It'll be matching Cornell's huge edge in RPI against BU's solid edge in TUC, and I think the RPI always wins out there.
 
Re: D1 Final eight

USCHO shows UMD/Minnesota in a dead heat in RPI right now, but the Gophers must lead in some insignificant digit. Good thing the comparison is settled on the ice tomorrow, so the committee doesn't have to try to make sense of the current state, where UMD has COP and UM leads in TUC. Although given all of the in/out battles, determining #2 vs #3 seems less crucial.

There is a banner at stake though, and yeah, it is Bulldogs/Gophers, so ... :cool:
 
Re: D1 Final eight

Bracket Release Tonight at 7:30pm ET.

Will have a Live Blog discussion beginning at 7pm ET for those interested.

The NCAA will be airing the release on the web here. Hopefully the video link works better this year...

Also its a silverlight player so some may not be able to access it at all...
 
Re: D1 Final eight

If Cornell loses, UConn > Cornell in Teams > .500 (8-7-5 vs. 6-9-4), and common opponents (9-3-3 vs. 12-6-6). The RPIs will be close. I see little chance of the NCAA taking Cornell with those numbers. It's all about this afternoon.

Latest projections

Cornell wins

BU @ Mercyhurst
UNH @ Harvard

Cornell @ UMD
Clarkson @ Minnesota

out: UConn

--------------------
If Clarkson wins

BU @ Mercyhurst
UNH @ Clarkson

UConn @ UMD
Harvard @ Minnesota

out: Cornell
 
Re: D1 Final eight

mattj711 said:
So BU wins. Does this mean Cornell has to win to be ahead of UConn and OSU?
Click to expand...

yup, we posted at the same time.

It's really the results against Providence & Hockey Canada that killed Cornell's at-large chances. UConn went 1-0-2 against Providence, while Cornell was 0-2.

OSU is not a factor.
 
Re: D1 Final eight

BU's win also means Cornell is likely headed for UMD instead of Mercyhurst if they make it.

The BU result is good news for Mercyhurst I think. Both BU and Cornell are hot now, but I think Cornell would've been severely underrated at No. 8 as an ECAC regular season and postseason champion. Their low rank is largely reflective of them missing some players in January, and it would've not been a fair matchup for Mercyhurst.
 
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