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D1 Final eight

Re: D1 Final eight

freak said:
Can Clarskon pass UNH if both win out?
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Without actually doing the math, I'm pretty sure not.

Clarkson would have to make a pretty large gap in the RPI to pass UNH.

There's no way that Harvard & (Cornell/RPI) are so much tougher opponents than BU & (UConn/Providence), that Clarkson would make up that kind of RPI gap with both teams winning their conference tournaments.

It does seem pretty likely though that Clarkson would pass UNH with an ECAC tourney win and any UNH loss.
 
Re: D1 Final eight

dave1381 said:
And any Northeastern tourney bid would certainly imply a trip to Erie for the quarters.
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It could be interesting to see how the bracket integrity vs minimization of travel trade off is handled this year. For the most part, it won't matter much given Mercyhurst will be #1 and UMD and UM look likely to remain as hosts. Where it would get interesting is if Bemidji State won the WCHA tournament. If Ohio State won as the final team into the field, no problem, send them to Erie, because it is as close as anything else. But Bemidji is a bus-ride away from Duluth, and a rather expensive set of connecting flights removed from Erie. The Lakers would be #1 by a lot, the Beavers #8 by a big margin as well (at least I'm assuming so, because they are the only team still alive that isn't even a TUC, although maybe RPI isn't that far ahead.)
 
Re: D1 Final eight

Re: Who's No. 4?

By my calculations, Harvard will still lead Clarkson in the PWR once tonight's games are accounted for, but Clarkson will pass Harvard by winning the ECAC tournament.

If UNH wins the Hockey East tournament, UNH will also pass Harvard.

It's hard for me to tell who would get to host if both Clarkson and UNH win their tournaments. The RPIs are pretty amazingly close. I think Clarkson's schedule might be tough enough to push them ahead, but I'm not sure.

I'll qualify this by saying the committee does have a recent history of looking at head-to-head when comparisons are close. Harvard is clearly ahead of Clarkson though in RPI and common opponents, so that would be far more controversial than the Dartmouth-Clarkson decision of 2008 if they were to take Clarkson for their 2-0-1 head-to-head advantage.

If UNH had any slight RPI edge over Clarkson, I could see the head-to-head edge for Clarkson carry the day there because the teams are close enough there.

Clarkson is 3-0-1 against its contenders for home ice, but they've been worse against everyone else. That's really the dilemma.

Re: the final potential at-large bids

I'm pretty sure Cornell has secured No. 8 now, and is safe barring tourney upsets, though there will be quite a logjam at No. 8 if Cornell loses the ECAC final.
 
Re: D1 Final eight

So essentially Harvard fans have to root for Cornell on Sunday and hope BU beats UNH tomorrow in order for the Crimson to get home ice next week?

The world has gone mad for sure. No way I can root for Cornell. I'll make the trip to Durham next weekend before I do that.
 
Re: D1 Final eight

Ok, PWR is up-to-date. Harvard hanging on to No. 4 as predicted. Clarkson still at No. 6.

I'll qualify what I said before. Looks like UNH has an edge over Clarkson in RPI, even after Clarkson's win today. So I figure UNH now controls its own destiny in terms of hosting.

So if both UNH & Clarkson win their leagues, you'll see Clarkson @ UNH.
If Clarkson wins ECAC, UNH does not, I expect you'll see UNH @ Clarkson.
If Clarkson loses the ECAC, UNH wins Hockey East, I expect Harvard @ UNH
If neither Clarkson or UNH win their titles, I expect you'll see UNH @ Harvard

Of course, this assumes the selection committee thinks its criteria other than head-to-head actually matter. (If not, congrats already to Clarkson for securing the No. 4 slot with a 3-0-1 record against UNH & Harvard! So what if you struggled against everyone else in the 2nd half?)
 
Re: D1 Final eight

Skate79 said:
So essentially Harvard fans have to root for Cornell on Sunday and hope BU beats UNH tomorrow in order for the Crimson to get home ice next week?
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No, UNH has to win Hockey East to pass Harvard at the end of the week (though UNH may temporarily pass Harvard with a win)

The world has gone mad for sure. No way I can root for Cornell. I'll make the trip to Durham next weekend before I do that.
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Harvard is likely headed for Minneapolis or Duluth if Clarkson wins, not Durham.

Plus, I don't have a whole lot of confidence in this Harvard team beating any good team on the road. They were 5-0-2 in 7 nonconference games at home. The only road wins they have this year are over the 7th-to-12th ranked teams in their conference.
 
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Re: D1 Final eight

Also, one more thought -- if Cornell beats Clarkson, BU or Providence win Hockey East, Ohio State or Bemidji win the WCHA -- then who is No. 6 becomes hugely important!

Clarkson could even be in a situation where it's ultimately -- beat Cornell, you get to host an NCAA quarterfinal, but lose, you're out of the tournament!
 
Re: D1 Final eight

dave1381 said:
Also, one more thought -- if Cornell beats Clarkson, BU or Providence win Hockey East, Ohio State or Bemidji win the WCHA -- then who is No. 6 becomes hugely important!

Clarkson could even be in a situation where it's ultimately -- beat Cornell, you get to host an NCAA quarterfinal, but lose, you're out of the tournament!
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In that scenario, Clarkson could be just as out of luck if UConn wins HEA if the Golden Knights were sitting at #6.
 
Re: D1 Final eight

I agree with Dave regarding Harvard's ability to win on the road. Certainly this year they have not proven they can beat a top team away from Bright but as a famous coach once said, 'you play the games on the schedule no matter where they are' and in that context, Harvard has proven they belong in the Top 5.

What I don't understand is if travel costs come into play, then doesn't that render the whole seeding process somewhat moot? I get that you try and make the best matchups regardless of location and reward teams for beating teams that are either ranked or under consideration. But then how can you ignore Harvard-UNH as a matchup even if Harvard lost in the semis of its conference tournament? You really think that Durham-Potsdam is a better travel situation than Durham-Cambridge? If head to head is really a criteria, then Harvard should not be in the Top 8 period because it loses all the comparisons unless you go out of conference. And if you do weigh out of conference more than in-conference, then leave Harvard at #4 or #5 and match them up with UNH. It doesn't make much sense to me when a team like Providence who if they win the HE tournament beating the #7 and #5 ranked teams will lose out to Cornell if Cornell wins the ECAC tournament. I'm at a loss to understand this and frankly nothing I've read so far helps to explain it in a way that makes sense.
 
Re: D1 Final eight

Skate79 said:
And if you do weigh out of conference more than in-conference...
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The NCAA doesn't care about games being in or out of conference. For the PWR, they are just games. Where interconference games become crucial is in the common opponents category in a comparison between teams in different conferences, where a small number of games can carry great weight. Also in RPI, because they determine the strength of the conferences relative to each other, but that is watered down because each team in the league contributes to the league's strength or weakness.
 
Re: D1 Final eight

True, but the PWR common opponents & TUC criteria do effectively lead to out of conference games getting more weight (if you play good nonconference opponents).

This is why Harvard, with a similar overall record to Cornell & Clarkson, is leading them in the PWR.

This is why Northeastern, despite being 5th in Hockey East, still had a shot at an at-large berth entering this weekend.
 
Re: D1 Final eight

dave1381 said:
True, but the PWR common opponents & TUC criteria do effectively lead to out of conference games getting more weight (if you play good nonconference opponents).
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I agree on COP, as stated below. TUC is blind to conference/nonconference. Nonconference TUC results don't carry any more weight than those derived from playing in-conference. For example, none of Minnesota's 6 nonconference games, all against TUC, is any more important in that category than any of their 16 games to date versus UMD, OSU, UW, or SCSU.
 
Re: D1 Final eight

ARM said:
I agree on COP, as stated below. TUC is blind to conference/nonconference. Nonconference TUC results don't carry any more weight than those derived from playing in-conference. For example, none of Minnesota's 6 nonconference games, all against TUC, is any more important in that category than any of their 16 games to date versus UMD, OSU, UW, or SCSU.
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True, but my point is, if more of your nonconference games are against TUC, then your average nonconference games is more important than your average conference game. If this is true, and all teams have roughly the same overall record, this would be part of the explanation for why teams like UConn & Northeastern are doing much better in the national standings than in their conference standings.
 
Re: D1 Final eight

Probably the easiest thing to do is to look at the team's records in the PWR and compare to the actual records.

Also if the score is in acknowledged on the USCHO scoreboard, it's in the USCHO system, and it'll be updated on the PWR shortly. I'm in quite sure exactly how often it updates, but it's at least every hour. It's automatic, and not just an end-of-the-day thing.

So this most recent UConn-BU result is not there yet. The ECAC semifinal results were in the PWR within an hour of the game ending.
 
Re: D1 Final eight

dave1381 said:
True, but my point is, if more of your nonconference games are against TUC, then your average nonconference games is more important than your average conference game. If this is true, and all teams have roughly the same overall record, this would be part of the explanation for why teams like UConn & Northeastern are doing much better in the national standings than in their conference standings.
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This makes sense when you compare Harvard and Cornell because even if Cornell wins the ECAC tournament and having finished first in the regular season, Harvard has the higher seed because of their out of conference record against teams under consideration. Cornell's out of conference is poor and explains why they need to win on Sunday to ensure they are in. Harvard needed to do the same last year despite winning the regular season conference title and couldn't get it done. Thus they missed the Big Dance.
 
Re: D1 Final eight

Looks like a BU-UConn Hockey East final, and it's between Harvard & Clarkson for home ice.

Now if Cornell & OSU both win conference title tomorrows, who is the odd team out... Clarkson? If I'm UNH, I'd still sweat a bit, given that Clarkson has the edge in common opponents & H2H, while UNH's margin in RPI is thin.

But if Minnesota beats OSU, Clarkson & UNH are both surely in.
 
Re: D1 Final eight

I wrote these projections assuming Minnesota would hold on to the 4-3 lead, oops.... well, we'll see if they matter

If BU & Cornell win

BU @ Mercyhurst
UNH @ Harvard

Cornell @ Minnesota/UMD winner
Clarkson @ Minnesota/UMD loser

out: UConn

--------------------
If BU & Clarkson win

BU @ Mercyhurst
UNH @ Clarkson

UConn @ Minnesota/UMD winner
Harvard @ Minnesota/UMD loser

out: Cornell
------------------------
If UConn & Clarkson win

Cornell @ Mercyhurst
UNH @ Clarkson

UConn @ Minnesota/UMD winner
Harvard @ Minnesota/UMD loser

out: BU
----------------------
If UConn & Cornell win

Cornell @ Mercyhurst
UNH @ Harvard

UConn @ Minnesota/UMD winner
Clarkson @ Minnesota/UMD loser

out: BU
Harvard @ Minnesota/UMD loser
 
Re: D1 Final eight

dave1381 said:
Looks like a BU-UConn Hockey East final, and it's between Harvard & Clarkson for home ice.

Now if Cornell & OSU both win conference title tomorrows, who is the odd team out... Clarkson? If I'm UNH, I'd still sweat a bit, given that Clarkson has the edge in common opponents & H2H, while UNH's margin in RPI is thin.

But if Minnesota beats OSU, Clarkson & UNH are both surely in.
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Does the HE final mean anything or is UConn safe? Sounds like they need to win tomorrow just to be sure.

So if OSU and Cornell win, Clarkson could be out and if UConn wins, would that send them to Cambridge as the 5th seed? Or do they stay at #7? How far does UNH drop if Cornell and OSU win?

I know, I know a lot of questions but it seems like there is more uncertainty this year than in any other year.
 
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