D1 Final eight

[ARM]

Re: D1 Final eight

Wouldn't 2 points this weekend be their golden ticket...for the Golden Knights! I imagine in a backdoor kind of way, that would also benefit Harvard as well.

I think as a general rule it helps a team's RPI when a) the team in question wins games; b) teams from its league win nonconference games; c) nonconference opponents win games. So it definitely helps the RPI of a Harvard if Clarkson does well versus Mercyhurst. Even someone like Cornell who plays both Clarkson and MC twice is better served in the RPI should Clarkson win, because of the "opponents' opponents" piece. Outside of the RPI ranking, it is probably better for bubble teams if somebody like MC, who is going to make the field regardless, inflicts losses on other bubble teams.

 

[Jonesy]

Re: D1 Final eight

All very valid points. Agree that Cornell has not been consistent either, never said they had been. My inconsistent quote was about Harvard. Having said that, I don't see Cornell's losses against Mercyhurst as a big blemish. Mercyhurst is number one and Cornell faced them when the Ivies were just coming out of the gate.

My point was more based on my opinion that Cornell might just win the ECAC autobid. Most on here will agree that at this point that crown looks to be a fierce threeway battle between Clarkson, Cornell and Harvard, with Quinnipiac a serious dark horse threath. Hopefully all teams can stay healthy down the stretch, so may the best team win.

BTW...Love the discussion, as it is informational. Clearly both you and ARM understand all the rules around who goes and who doesn't much better than yours truly.

I think the "dark horse" in the ECAC is actually Princeton, they have tied and defeated the Q and Harvard. They certainly need to improve consistency to have any chance, but they are a threat.

 

[ARM]

Re: D1 Final eight

Clarkson's loss to SLU last night hurt them a bit in the PWR, as they drop to #5 with UNH at #3 and UMD into 4th place. Plenty of time to reverse that, of course. Also, I notice that at some point in the last week, USCHO got the standalone RPI populated.

 

[ARM]

Re: D1 Final eight

... and 24 hours later, Clarkson is back to #3 with UNH's loss. The Golden Knights still lose the comparison to UMD, but they now win the pair with UNH, and the Wildcats still take the comparison versus UMD. This creates a 3-way tie for 3rd in comparisons won, and because the tie breaker is RPI, it sorts out to Clarkson, then UNH, then UMD. With teams this close, it may shuffle around a few times.

 

[DC78-82]

Re: D1 Final eight

... and 24 hours later, Clarkson is back to #3 with UNH's loss. The Golden Knights still lose the comparison to UMD, but they now win the pair with UNH, and the Wildcats still take the comparison versus UMD. This creates a 3-way tie for 3rd in comparisons won, and because the tie breaker is RPI, it sorts out to Clarkson, then UNH, then UMD. With teams this close, it may shuffle around a few times.

If UNH has to play UMD again this year in the quarters, we should petition the NCAA to just make it the last game of the regular season

 

[ARM]

Re: D1 Final eight

If UNH has to play UMD again this year in the quarters, we should petition the NCAA to just make it the last game of the regular season

The Wildcats also have a history of playing the host team from Minnesota in the semis (1999, 2006, 2008).

 

[dave1381]

Re: D1 Final eight

The Wildcats also have a history of playing the host team from Minnesota in the semis (1999, 2006, 2008).

Ha, this year they could end up playing both UMD in the quarters, and the host team from Minnesota in the semis!!

 

[DC78-82]

Re: D1 Final eight

Ha, this year they could end up playing both UMD in the quarters, and the host team from Minnesota in the semis!!

I'm sure everyone in Wildcat Country appreciates your vote of confidence this morning!

 

[dave1381]

Re: D1 Final eight

Just reposting what I wrote in the Harvard thread, since I was asked

In terms of avoiding intraconference matchups, who knows exactly what they'll do. The committee's priorities change a lot year-to-year. But my guess is they'll avoid intraconference matchups since the teams in the middle-bottom of the 8 are all very close. My guess is you'll see an NCAA quarterfinal between the best ECAC team and the best Hockey East team in the PWR --- while the other three qualifiers will be stuck going to Mercyhurst/Minnesota/UMD. (If Wisconsin makes it, probably they go to Mercyhurst).

So most likely the NCAA tournament will look something like

Quarterfinals for Semifinal #1
Wisconsin (or ECAC/Hockey East qualifier) at No. 1 Mercyhurst
Hockey East #1 in PWR vs. ECAC #1 in PWR (hosted by higher-ranked team)

Quarterfinals for Semifinal #2
(ECAC/Hockey East) at Minnesota
(ECAC/Hockey East) at UMD

 

[dave1381]

Re: D1 Final eight

To sum up this season, the Hockey East regular season champion is 2-0 vs. the ECAC regular season champion, and is not even in the top 10 in the PWR. Wow.

 

[LakersFan]

Re: D1 Final eight

So is this the year those teams ranked 7th and 8th should be very nervous heading into the conference tournament weekend?

Is Quinnipiac really going to finish strong enough in the ECAC tournament to end up in the top 8 in PWR? Being the fourth seed in the ECAC tournament may actually be an advantage, as they would only face Harvard or Clarkson in the finals, if things go to form.

Or will Quinnipiac beating RPI in the ECAC quarterfinals drop RPI from the TUC ranks, therefore dropping Quinnipiac in the PWR?

 

[ManBehindTheCurtain]

Re: D1 Final eight

To sum up this season, the Hockey East regular season champion is 2-0 vs. the ECAC regular season champion, and is not even in the top 10 in the PWR. Wow.

So, dave (and LakersFan), do you think current 9th in the PWR Wisconsin has to win the WCHA tournament and the conference autobid to get into the NCAA tournament?

Or is it still possible for them to sneak up past Quinnipiac or UConn or one of the others based on various conference tournament results?

 

[Crimson Hockey Fan]

Re: D1 Final eight

can someone explain the asterisks and italics in the PWR and RPI pages to me?

 

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: D1 Final eight

can someone explain the asterisks and italics in the PWR and RPI pages to me?

It means that at some point in the season, they beat a team that is so bad that even though they won, their RPI went down. The number* that is shown is an adjustment of their RPI to cancel that out.

The NCAA doesn't want winning to be a bad thing!

 

[dave1381]

Re: D1 Final eight

So is this the year those teams ranked 7th and 8th should be very nervous heading into the conference tournament weekend?

Yes, though I think the team that's been 8th has been pretty consistently worried these past few seasons. There's been a team outside the top 8 winning a league on a pretty consistent basis. Providence in 05, Harvard in 06, and Dartmouth in 09. And of course in 2008, Clarkson was 8th, and Dartmouth was 9th, and Dartmouth made it.

But certainly the No. 7 team is in far more danger than ever before. Even the No. 6 team is far from safe.

Is Quinnipiac really going to finish strong enough in the ECAC tournament to end up in the top 8 in PWR? Being the fourth seed in the ECAC tournament may actually be an advantage, as they would only face Harvard or Clarkson in the finals, if things go to form.

Given recent results, I might be happy to play Clarkson now. They seem to be playing much worse than earlier in the season. You get as much credit for beating them now as you would back when they were doing well. There's a decent chance they get beat by SLU though.

Or will Quinnipiac beating RPI in the ECAC quarterfinals drop RPI from the TUC ranks, therefore dropping Quinnipiac in the PWR?

That of course highlights one of the systems biggest flaws. QPac split RPI, and their TUC record is one game below .500, so from the perspective of the current PWR, that anomaly probably doesn't hurt them too much. We may see some fluctuation though if QPac wins game 1, RPI stays above .500, and then QPac wins game 2, and RPI drops out.

Of course, if the last spot in the tourney came down to whether RPI was a team under consideration or not, I hope the committee would show a little more discretion. Same goes for any team on the cusp of .500.

 

[dave1381]

Re: D1 Final eight

So, dave (and LakersFan), do you think current 9th in the PWR Wisconsin has to win the WCHA tournament and the conference autobid to get into the NCAA tournament?

Or is it still possible for them to sneak up past Quinnipiac or UConn or one of the others based on various conference tournament results?

Most likely, Wisconsin has to win the WCHA. If not, they certainly would want UNH to win Hockey East and Harvard or Clarkson to win the ECAC.

It's certainly possible for Wisconsin to lose in the WCHA final and pass QPac and UConn. This probably involves Wisconsin going 3-1 in the WCHA tournament and losing to Minnesota and UMD, while QPac and UConn lose to some weaker opponent. Note also UConn still plays Northeastern this afternoon.

A strange scenario is if the last berth comes down to Wisconsin vs. Cornell. (say if Cornell loses the ECAC final and Wisconsin loses the WCHA final). Wisconsin has the far better record vs. teams under consideration, Cornell has the far better RPI -- but the comparison then comes down to performance against the teams' one common opponent, Providence. Tough luck for Cornell.

 

[WFR]

Re: D1 Final eight

Here is a guess for the final 8 and I mean a GUESS.


1. Mercyhurst
2. Minnesota-Duluth
3. Minnesota
4. Providence-if they win HE
5. Cornell-if they win ECAC
6. UNH-will slide up if they win HE
7. Harvard-will slide up if they win ECAC

These 7 should be automatic barring any major upsets in conference play.

8. Wisconsin-should be in

Now it gets interesting

9. Clarkson-last team in by a nose if Cornell or Providence lose playoffs

Outside looking in-will need strong showing in conference playoffs
Not much room for these teams to move up the ladder.

0. UConn -----------19-8-7-Best chance of rest
11. Northeastern------17-8-7-Outside looking in
12. Quinnipiac---------19-8-8-Not a surprise anymore-Good playoffs a must
13. Boston U.---------14-8-12 Too many ties-would have to win HE

 

[dave1381]

Re: D1 Final eight

You can familiarize yourself with the actual NCAA criteria here, and make a much more educated guess.

Here's the ranking of the teams according to the NCAA criteria right now
1. Mercyhurst
2. UMD
3. Minnesota
and then a pretty big gap
4. Harvard
5. UNH
6. Clarkson
and then a pretty big gap
7. UConn
8. Quinnipiac
9. Providence
9. Northeastern
11. Cornell
12. BU
12. Wisconsin

It's pretty likely that the top 6 listed above are in. The only way they wouldn't be is if the WCHA, Hockey East, and the ECAC all had champions coming from outside the top 6.

Cornell and Providence pretty much have to win to get in. Though they won their regular season championships, they both struggled for the most part in nonconference play (Providence's exception being their sweep of Cornell). Also the NCAA doesn't value shootout wins, which Providence wouldn't have won Hockey East without. And the NCAA doesn't value regular season championships either, just Wins, Losses, and Ties and the quality of the opponent.

Wisconsin might have impressed by finishing 4-3-1 against Minnesota and UMD, but the problem is they posted the same winning percentage regardless of the opponent. The Badgers do well in what amounts to the record vs. quality opponents NCAA selection criterion, but they struggle everywhere else. They at the very least have to make the WCHA final, or more likely win the whole thing, to make the tournament.

There's a decent chance though that both the last two spots will go autobid winnners from the ECAC or Hockey East. If not, it'll be pretty close between the last few teams. UConn has the edge right now. IF UConn, Northeastern, or Quinnipiac make their conference finals, it might be enough for one of those three. But they're the ones squarely on the bubble.

 

[dave1381]

Re: D1 Final eight

Ok, here's an update on the NCAA at-large situation.

Here's the PWR

Rk Team
1 Mercyhurst (Mh)
2 Minnesota-Duluth (MD)
3 Minnesota (Mn)
4 Harvard (Ha)
5 New Hampshire (NH)
6 Clarkson (Ck)
7 Connecticut (Ct)
8 Northeastern (NE)
9 Quinnipiac (Qn)
10t Cornell (Cr)
10t Boston University (BU)
10t Providence (Pv)

Team-by-team analysis

Mercyhurst is pretty much No.1 no matter what happens.

Whoever performs better in the WCHA tournament will be No. 2. Minnesota could fall to No. 4 if they lose the WCHA semis and Harvard wins the ECAC.

Harvard's in a good spot at No. 4. They might be able to stay ahead of Clarkson if they lose the ECAC semis to them (though the NCAA does weird things when a team is 0-2-1 against another head-to-head). They certainly control their own destiny for home ice while UNH does not. Almost certainly, UNH will be playing Harvard or Clarkson in an NCAA quarterfinal. Maybe if Harvard wins the ECAC and Minnesota struggles net weekend, Harvard could get UConn instead.

UConn is solidly in at No. 7. They'll only miss the tourney if there are two conference champions from outside the top 6.

The RPI series win, which took 5 OT, was fantastic news for Northeastern and Cornell.

Northeastern is No. 8 now but obviously in precarious position. To stay at No. 8, they need Cornell to lose its ECAC semifinal against RPI. And of course they need all the conference autobid winners to be among the top 8.

If Cornell were to beat RPI and lose in the ECAC final, they would win their comparison against Northeastern. This creates a three-way tie between Cornell, Quinnipiac, and Northeastern which would be won by Cornell. (it's also possible Cornell could win it's comparison against SCSU in the end, but it's irrelevant). Anyway, Cornell is now in contention for an at-large bid.

Ok, another crazy scenario, if UNH beats Providence in the Hockey East final (i.e. BU loses its semi and PC wins), then we could end up with a four-way tie with 9 comparison wins between Cornell, Quinnipiac, Northeastern, and Providence. But Cornell still wins all three comparisons. What a mess.

 

[freak]

Re: D1 Final eight

They certainly control their own destiny for home ice while UNH does not. Almost certainly, UNH will be playing Harvard or Clarkson in an NCAA quarterfinal.

Yep.

If I'm not mistaken, the only way that UNH can get home ice is if Harvard loses to Clarkson in the ECAC semis, and UNH wins out.

This would flip the COP to UNH, assuming I did the winning % correctly, as Clarkson and PC/UConn are all common opponents.

I have no idea what the effect on RPI would be, but assuming Harvard still takes that, UNH would take the comparison 2-1.

Can Clarskon pass UNH if both win out?

Wish they had a Pairwise Predictor for the women.