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Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

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Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

I think your ignoring the obvious. If we allow this to spread like the flue does and we have no vaccine to stop it like the flu does than everyone gets it. And everyone who is compromised will need a ventilator and a hospital bed.

If that happens your flu death number will be trivial by comparison.

The only thing that is stopping this thing right now is social distancing. You really think people are making it up that that's what's needed?

people bring up the flu, but seems they don't realize that flu benefits from 43% of adults and 62% of children getting a shot. ergo what would flu look like if there were NO vaccine shots :eek:
 
Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

Quickly is relative. Based on the data that I can see, quick is ~8 weeks- China and S Korea. But we all have to be disciplined and keep up with that. I don't see that happening, but it's a path that we can take.

I'm thinking one year. I have no basis for my estimate nor does anyone else.

I have already instructed Dr. Mrs. (years ago) to inscribe on my urn, "He didn't know and neither do you."

<img src="https://cpimg.tistatic.com/04857672/s/4/It-s-Awfully-Dark-In-Here-Brass-Classic-Cremation-Urn-Engravable.jpg">
 
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Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

I think your ignoring the obvious. If we allow this to spread like the flue does and we have no vaccine to stop it like the flu does than everyone gets it. And everyone who is compromised will need a ventilator and a hospital bed.

If that happens your flu death number will be trivial by comparison.

The only thing that is stopping this thing right now is social distancing. You really think people are making it up that that's what's needed?

I think social distancing is fine. I think it's a good practice, and I've followed it myself now starting about 10 days ago.

I think he made an excellent point about the cruise ship examples. When people say, as you just did, that "everyone gets the virus" if we don't act, that's simply not the case. Everyone isn't going to get it. 70% aren't going to get it.

Like Michael Osterholm said in yesterday's StarTribune, we have to teach social distancing that makes sense and works. Telling people they can't be in a building with 50,000 people makes no sense. Telling people they shouldn't shake hands with those 50,000 people makes complete sense.
 
Yes on (1), no on (2). Italy is an example. They stopped people interacting and now the numbers are holding. However, the minute they let them out the numbers will spike again.

There is no "getting this over quickly." Until we have transmission to everyone, or a vaccine, or Jesus fixes it, we're going to have to stay apart. "It's not you; it's me."

The only real hope to ease (not eliminate) social distancing in the next few months is a massive testing effort (like test every single person in the country) so you can identify the infected but asymptomatic individuals. At that point everyone will know if they can safely go to the grocery store or run an errand without infecting anyone else.
 
Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

I think social distancing is fine. I think it's a good practice, and I've followed it myself now starting about 10 days ago.

I think he made an excellent point about the cruise ship examples. When people say, as you just did, that "everyone gets the virus" if we don't act, that's simply not the case. Everyone isn't going to get it. 70% aren't going to get it.

Like Michael Osterholm said in yesterday's StarTribune, we have to teach social distancing that makes sense and works. Telling people they can't be in a building with 50,000 people makes no sense. Telling people they shouldn't shake hands with those 50,000 people makes complete sense.

I think your still missing the forest for the trees. It's not the 80% that get it and get healthy again just fine it's the 20% that get it and overwhelm the hospitals. Italy didn't just make this **** up.
 
Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

The only real hope to ease (not eliminate) social distancing in the next few months is a massive testing effort (like test every single person in the country) so you can identify the infected but asymptomatic individuals. At that point everyone will know if they can safely go to the grocery store or run an errand without infecting anyone else.

If only. With cities like NY and LA saying they're not testing anyone at all that doesn't have any symptoms, that's not possible.
 
Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

If only. With cities like NY and LA saying they're not testing anyone at all that doesn't have any symptoms, that's not possible.

IINM this is because the Feds f-cked up and didn't stock sufficient test supplies. Once we recover from that (which may take a regime change so hey no real improvement until next January if then) we can ramp up the production on a war footing. Until then we do what we can.
 
Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

If only. With cities like NY and LA saying they're not testing anyone at all that doesn't have any symptoms, that's not possible.

yeah, we don't have capacity to manufacture or process 350M tests right now. I think this is the approach Australia has taken, but they only need to test 25 million people. They recently approved a rapid test that can produce results in 45 minutes and does not need to be sent to a lab for processing -- the testing can be completed at the point of contact.
 
Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

Uh, did you actually read the fallow of the people who missed the signs? It was not pretty how many people lost their leadership positions.

But to compare that to what we have now is pretty short sighted- especially looking at how other countries reacted to the exact same information- Taiwan and South Korea- BOTH of them reacted to the information coming of China and contained the problem very effectively. While there were some warning signs in 1941, the information this time was clear and pretty obvious- so obvious that THIS message board was talking about what should be done and why we have done nothing.

This is more like Japan actually telling us they will attack, somewhere, and us not doing anything to prepare. Not that they were preparing in secret and hiding that info from us- we barely had that info a day in advance. If we KNEW they were going to attack a month in advance, and did nothing, the fallout would have been a lot worst.

Smart people all saw this coming. Your leaders denied that it was even real- calling it a hoax. If you want to justify this pathetic response by comparing it to Pearl Harbor, go for it, as it just tells the rest of us what you are willing to put up with in terms of letting people suffer and die. Again, thanks for that clarification- can you also post what "church" you go to, so that I can avoid those people, too?

That is such a key point. We're morons. We were talking about this. We knew this was going to be bad.
 
Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

It'll be more interesting to see how quickly he is shouted down.

I was glad he included the flu numbers. No, this is not the flu. I get that.

On the other hand, the flu killed something like 650,000 people worldwide last year, a number that I think has been fairly consistent over the past few years. That is why when I click on a website like CNN and see something like 15,000 DEAD FROM COVID-19 WORLDWIDE, OMG WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE!!!, my mind starts wondering what I can find on Youtube.

His data is as incomplete as the data he shouts down. Using the Diamond Princess as proof like he does is not a very sound model. (I saw another story on his findings a few days ago) Not to mention, you cant say "it wont be as bad as you think" when we dont even know how bad it is. We cant test everyone who has symptoms, and we cant know how many asymptomatic people are spreading it. He is basically putting faith in the fact that China is giving us correct info and that they just didnt get lucky.

Basically it is BS for him to be saying this stuff. We cant do what China does anyways...and the chances things abed when China goes back to normal arent likely either. This guy is looking at our data, assuming it is up to date and correct and extrapolating ahead. He is ignoring everything (including populations that arent the Diamond Princess) that disproves his "STOP PANICKING!!!1! meme including the fact that 100% our numbers are incomplete. I am no doctor, nor a statistician, but I do understand that you can see that the more people we test, the higher the infected rate is climbing. I also know you cant look at the first 7 minutes of a 0-0 hockey game and extrapolate the final score, SOG and who gets all the points at the end.

tl;dr: He might end up right, but his methodology is beyond flawed.
 
Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

The only real hope to ease (not eliminate) social distancing in the next few months is a massive testing effort (like test every single person in the country) so you can identify the infected but asymptomatic individuals. At that point everyone will know if they can safely go to the grocery store or run an errand without infecting anyone else.

Yep...restrictions have to be in place until our data is more complete. Otherwise we are guaranteed to be right back here in a couple months.
 
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Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

That's for a full year. This hasn't even been four months. give it time.

let's see how smug and self-righteous you are then.

I'm not entirely sure if NY and WA are reporting recoveries as widely as they should be, but among closed cases the death rate here is >50%. That's... a ****ing problem. Worldwide, the death rate among closed cases is about 10%. That's still a problem.

We can't have a virus floating around with an unknown immunity, no vaccine, and a stupid high death rate.

The US hasn't been hit hard yet. This is just starting to take off. In April, we're going to see what happens when half the states are out of hospital beds. Nurses and doctors are still trying to recover from their own infections, and newspapers look like this:

<img src=https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/3F7QELDHTAI6VMMZHKLZTRKFCI.jpg&w=800>
 
Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

The only real hope to ease (not eliminate) social distancing in the next few months is a massive testing effort (like test every single person in the country) so you can identify the infected but asymptomatic individuals. At that point everyone will know if they can safely go to the grocery store or run an errand without infecting anyone else.

Your faith in the American people is greater than mine. I believe if we were able to test everyone, or at least more people, we'd have asymptomatic positive tests where people think "* it, I've already got it, so I should be able to live my life without fear" and thus expose countless others. We are a country of "me first" and "I got mine, so who cares about you"
 
Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

If only. With cities like NY and LA saying they're not testing anyone at all that doesn't have any symptoms, that's not possible.

My brother who's a doctor said the guidance is now no tests for any respiratory diseases unless they have severe symptoms. There aren't enough kits, swabs, or reagents. If someone comes in with mild symptoms, tell them they should isolate until you are asymptomatic again (this is actually an issue with the first advice being given to people, stay home for 14 days is only correct if you recover in less than that; some people take longer to recover). Tell everyone they've had contact with to isolate for 14 days.

IINM this is because the Feds f-cked up and didn't stock sufficient test supplies. Once we recover from that (which may take a regime change so hey no real improvement until next January if then) we can ramp up the production on a war footing. Until then we do what we can.

Correct.
 
Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

I think social distancing is fine. I think it's a good practice, and I've followed it myself now starting about 10 days ago.

I think he made an excellent point about the cruise ship examples. When people say, as you just did, that "everyone gets the virus" if we don't act, that's simply not the case. Everyone isn't going to get it. 70% aren't going to get it.

Like Michael Osterholm said in yesterday's StarTribune, we have to teach social distancing that makes sense and works. Telling people they can't be in a building with 50,000 people makes no sense. Telling people they shouldn't shake hands with those 50,000 people makes complete sense.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Literally ever person in the United States needs to watch this.<br><br>PLEASE RETWEET <a href="https://t.co/3IglZtOVgL">pic.twitter.com/3IglZtOVgL</a></p>— Scottacular (@Scottcrates) <a href="https://twitter.com/Scottcrates/status/1241393485241974786?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 21, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

It isnt about the 70% who dont get it. Do you understand that 30% getting it is a HUGE problem? We dont have the resources to deal with the fraction of the 30% that are going to get really sick over it.

Seriously...you can do basic math and see the problem. What is the population of the US? What is 30% of that? How many of them will need vents? How many do we have? Those numbers are not close.

We cant stop kids from going to Spring Break...so we arent even taking social distancing as strongly as we should in many states. But hey it is all good cause China leveled off...we think.
 
Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

His data is as incomplete as the data he shouts down. Using the Diamond Princess as proof like he does is not a very sound model. (I saw another story on his findings a few days ago) Not to mention, you cant say "it wont be as bad as you think" when we dont even know how bad it is. We cant test everyone who has symptoms, and we cant know how many asymptomatic people are spreading it. He is basically putting faith in the fact that China is giving us correct info and that they just didnt get lucky.

Basically it is BS for him to be saying this stuff. We cant do what China does anyways...and the chances things abed when China goes back to normal arent likely either. This guy is looking at our data, assuming it is up to date and correct and extrapolating ahead. He is ignoring everything (including populations that arent the Diamond Princess) that disproves his "STOP PANICKING!!!1! meme including the fact that 100% our numbers are incomplete. I am no doctor, nor a statistician, but I do understand that you can see that the more people we test, the higher the infected rate is climbing. I also know you cant look at the first 7 minutes of a 0-0 hockey game and extrapolate the final score, SOG and who gets all the points at the end.

tl;dr: He might end up right, but his methodology is beyond flawed.

Well, if we're going to do away with the data that we have by waving our hands and saying that we don't know whether a country is giving us accurate numbers, or suggest that it's possible they just got lucky, then what's the point in looking at the data anyway?
 
Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Ah, now I understand why Trump hasn't invoked the Defense Production Act (which would compel companies to make what's needed).<a href="https://t.co/XA7gynzbrN">https://t.co/XA7gynzbrN</a> <a href="https://t.co/K5FaClr7aj">pic.twitter.com/K5FaClr7aj</a></p>— Eric Umansky (@ericuman) <a href="https://twitter.com/ericuman/status/1241925491784912897?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 23, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Compelling companies to make what the gubmint tells them? That sounds like scary socialism!
 
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