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Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

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Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

dxmnkd316 said:
I'm not entirely sure if NY and WA are reporting recoveries as widely as they should be, but among closed cases the death rate here is >50%. That's... a ****ing problem. Worldwide, the death rate among closed cases is about 10%. That's still a problem.

We can't have a virus floating around with an unknown immunity, no vaccine, and a stupid high death rate.

The US hasn't been hit hard yet. This is just starting to take off. In April, we're going to see what happens when half the states are out of hospital beds. Nurses and doctors are still trying to recover from their own infections, and newspapers look like this:

<img src=https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/3F7QELDHTAI6VMMZHKLZTRKFCI.jpg&w=800>
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Bingo. People seem to be pretending we are in the middle innings of this thing...that is flawed thinking. The game just started. Italy is pushing 60k cases and they havent shown any signs of leveling off yet. We cant even truly know because we cant even test those that MIGHT have it. (unless they are rich) We are in the top of the third inning here...
 
Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

SJHovey said:
There is certainly no reason why a manufacturing facility cranking out F-150's can't start making us some ventilators.
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Other than the simple fact that the assembly line is 100% designed to make an F150s and has to be completely retooled to make ventilators, sure.

It takes time to convert a manufacturing line to make something else. It's going to help once converted. But to think that happens instantly is kind of interesting, to say the least. At least invoking the rules takes that decision out of the hands of the owners of the company.... Since they will also have to pay for the cost to turn it back.
 
Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

alfablue said:
Other than the simple fact that the assembly line is 100% designed to make an F150s and has to be completely retooled to make ventilators, sure.

It takes time to convert a manufacturing line to make something else. It's going to help once converted. But to think that happens instantly is kind of interesting, to say the least. At least invoking the rules takes that decision out of the hands of the owners of the company.... Since they will also have to pay for the cost to turn it back.
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This is the kind of stuff that should have started two months ago. It's what the federal government is for.
 
Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

SJHovey said:
Well, if we're going to do away with the data that we have by waving our hands and saying that we don't know whether a country is giving us accurate numbers, or suggest that it's possible they just got lucky, then what's the point in looking at the data anyway?
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Who said do away with the numbers?

People are saying to use the numbers correctly and in a way there is real meaning. Not just use them to tell the story you want to tell.

Kind of dumb to suggest to not even use the numbers.
 
Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

ScoobyDoo said:
Pretty interesting that Rand Paul is a doctor. Knew he might have been exposed. Had the test. And even after taking the test he just went around infecting others until he got the results.
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Isn't he an ophthalmologist? When was the last time he actually practiced medicine? Is his license still valid?
 
Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

FadeToBlack&Gold said:
Isn't he an ophthalmologist? When was the last time he actually practiced medicine? Is his license still valid?
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He still practices. He does some free stuff in third world countries every year as I understand it. Which is great by the way.
 
Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

SJHovey said:
Well, if we're going to do away with the data that we have by waving our hands and saying that we don't know whether a country is giving us accurate numbers, or suggest that it's possible they just got lucky, then what's the point in looking at the data anyway?
Click to expand...

There are better examples and you know it. Or do you believe Russia only has 438 cases too :rolleyes:

South Korea is more reliable...as are about a dozen other places. He ignores them and uses China which are dubious at best. Stinks of him looking to prove his point not his research.

His findings are interesting...but they stink of confirmation bias. He wants to prove it isnt as bad as the media makes it out to be so he takes a couple random data points and extrapolates it out for everyone. He ignores all context, mitigating factors and data that disproves his hypothesis and then goes from there. That is not how this works...

If he wants to attack the media for pumping this up fine...they should be pumping it up but I get the idea of criticizing how they give the message. The responsible media is having experts on to explain the complexities but most media is not responsible. Go after them. That said he has his head in the sand if he thinks we are anything like China or our numbers will be. He cant say "calm down things are fine" when we dont even know the state at which things are. We dont have a model, we dont have any real data and we have no clue what the ceiling is. It is irresponsible of him to be acting, as a person of education and authority, like we know where we stand. We dont.

Put it this way, speaking as a teacher if he turned in his paper as a position paper I would grade him well. He has some interesting facts that he uses to back up his assertins and I would definitely keep it as a counterpoint to the current thinking. As a research project he fails. It is incomplete at best. He completely generalizes the issues, never acknowledges the mountains of data against him and definitely has an axe to grind. (or it read that way to me)
 
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Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

SJHovey said:
It took manufacturers something like three years to convert over for WWII.
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LOL

We HAD a pandemic office. We knew what would happen if this occurred. And yet there are no policies or procedures in place for this disaster. It's been a hodge podge of BS and "this has never happened before, no one knew" crap.

Give me a ****ing break. Stop pretending we didn't know. We did know and we didn't ****ing care. And that's sad because our military has plans for EVERYTHING. But our government had NO PLANS for this. None.
 
Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

alfablue said:
Other than the simple fact that the assembly line is 100% designed to make an F150s and has to be completely retooled to make ventilators, sure.

It takes time to convert a manufacturing line to make something else. It's going to help once converted. But to think that happens instantly is kind of interesting, to say the least. At least invoking the rules takes that decision out of the hands of the owners of the company.... Since they will also have to pay for the cost to turn it back.
Click to expand...

Yeah, this ain't like 1940 where everything was hand-made. This would take months to change over. Maybe longer.

Plus the qualifications that need to happen because it's medical. The products we make that go into medical products take longer than the projects to build them usually.
 
Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

Kepler said:
Until we have transmission to everyone, or a vaccine, or Jesus fixes it, we're going to have to stay apart. "It's not you; it's me."
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Not gonna happen. Half the country can't even obey a two-week order to shelter in place.
 
Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

SJHovey said:
It took manufacturers something like three years to convert over for WWII.
Click to expand...

I would like to believe we are more efficient than they were in the 1940s.

And of course...we are months behind where we should be because half the country thinks gubbermint is BAD!!!!1. If we had a strong Federal Government right now we might be at the point where findings like the article posted would have more value. 2 months from now his point will be much more defensible. But since one party is in the businesses of starving out anything that doesnt help their bottom line we are stuck in the dark with only a red light laser pen to guide us.
 
Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

FadeToBlack&Gold said:
Isn't he an ophthalmologist? When was the last time he actually practiced medicine? Is his license still valid?
Click to expand...

From what I've read lately (yeah.. yeah..) he was basically self-accredited and hasn't been able to practice medicine in quite some time.
 
Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

FadeToBlack&Gold said:
Not gonna happen. Half the country can't even obey a two-week order to shelter in place.
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Which is why anyone pretending we are like China is a joke. They force it...here we have GOP Senators who dont even act with proper distancing let alone the masses.
 
Re: Covfefe-19 - Part 4- Stay the **** Home

Actually, the best thing we could do would be to retrain the operators from other manufacturing lines to work the respirator lines while we build new ones.

It's not perfectly overlapping, but the principles are the same. Have people in the bullpen, paid, for when people on the manufacturing line get sick, the backups can come in and keep production moving.

Trying to retool existing lines is a big waste of money and resources. They're all far too specialized.
 
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