Re: College Football V: Bowls Are Done; Carry On My Wayward Sons
Now that the Pac is at 12, I'm not sure how a Texas to the Pac scenario would work out, unless four teams were added, but I'm not sure who those teams would be. Here in Arizona, I'm not excited about any possibility of adding a bunch of Big 12 teams to the conference, meaning ASU would get stuck with them in their division. Blech.
The options are indeed now somewhat more limited. If we're going to have sixteen team superconferences, the way it shakes out will have a considerable amount to do with who gets to the Big XII, and then the Big East, first.
The Big XII-2 is obviously the Ottoman Empire of college football at this point. Texas, A&M and Oklahoma are the most valuable of the 10 members, and the Big Whatever, SEC, and Pac-12 all have potential to try and grab them, and I've listed them in ascending order of need.
The Big Whatever would love to have Texas onboard, and Mizzou would be a good get, but the conference also has options to the East. The prize catch would be Notre Dame, but we know at this point the only thing that would potentially cause them to reevaluate independence, apart from being locked out of the BCS, is if the Big East (i.e. the home they prize for their non-football sports) were to suddenly stop existing.
The SEC also has options in the east (WVU is a possibility, as would anyone from the ACC), but if they're going to go for 16, it's likely to be new markets that will drive them. They want into Texas and Oklahoma for that reason, and A&M and OU would be fits for the SEC. They don't necessarily need more than those two, though, and a potential move to 16 might include a mix from the east and west.
The Pac-12, however, needs them most of all in any race to 16; their relative geographic isolation both helps them in that its core membership is essentially secure from poaching, but that isolation also means that future partners will either need to come from further and further east, or be combed from the Mountain West. The Pac-12 wants to get Big XII-2 teams to avoid having to fill the numbers with teams like UNLV or Hawaii. If the Big XII-2 looks to be getting ripped apart, they're on the phone with Texas in a nanosecond. They probably have to take Tech along with them, but they'll do whatever they can, IMO, to avoid having to bring Baylor along too. If that means feasting on duplicate market options (BYU, in spite of a religious objection, and Air Force are the Top 2 of the western leftovers, I feel), they'll do it. UNLV is an option, though likely a very unpalatable one. If the shakedown looks to be BYU, Air Force, Texas and Texas Tech, they can plausibly do a North/South split rather than East/West (dividing the old Pac-Ten mostly evenly, and not forcing the Arizonas to be partnered with all of the newbies), with Washington/Oregon/Colorado/Utah partners in the North, and Bay Area/Los Angeles/Arizona/Texas partners in the South (with 2 crossover games engineered to give access to Texas and/or California trips yearly to the Northern football teams).