Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

[joecct]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

She's not uniting behind one theme behind her candidacy. Simple works. Sanders = overthrow everything. Doesn't matter to his supporters that he'll get little done. They've already rationalized it as either 1) he's just aiming high (Kep's view), 2) he's the Second Coming, or 3) he commands a previously unidentified cadre of liberals who've been sitting out elections even as progressive candidates have lost but will come out for Bernie and take back Congress.

Clinton needs to do a better job coming out loud and proud and making this primary race a referendum on the Obama Presidency. Simple and easy. Either you think we should be continuing the progress of the Obama years or the whole thing was a waste of time so blow it up. As you say, she's part of the Administration. She won over Obama voters in Iowa. People who voted for him twice might not want to hear that was all for naught.

I think the electorate is hoping for WJC pt 3, not BHO pt 3. It's a fantasy, just as the GOP hoping for RWR pt whatever.

EDIT: It looks like iCarly is toast. When do we hear from I, Christie?

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

I think the electorate is hoping for WJC pt 3, not BHO pt 3. It's a fantasy, just as the GOP hoping for RWR pt whatever.

EDIT: It looks like iCarly is toast. When do we hear from I, Christie?

I think we already have. He's suspending his campaign and going back to Jersey, who promptly sent him back to New Hampshire!

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

YHaving said that, if Bernie starts killing it in the remaining states, I don't see superdelegates denying him the nomination if he's 699 short and all 700 vote for Hillary. Most likely they'll go with whoever's winning, but yes if Bernie and Hillary end up even in delegates won through the primaries I can see superdelegates putting her over the top.

This. I was going to say the same thing.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

It looks like iCarly is toast. When do we hear from I, Christie?

It's a good day for America, for different reasons in each case.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

That is true. Of course, Jeb hasn't lost yet.

No, completely different. The Bush machine is nowhere near as powerful as the Clinton machine. Plus, the GOP has an absolute chasm opening up between its Tea Party wing and establishment wing (with enough members making the jump to "legitimize" it) that it's no longer enough.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

No, completely different. The Bush machine is nowhere near as powerful as the Clinton machine. Plus, the GOP has an absolute chasm opening up between its Tea Party wing and establishment wing (with enough members making the jump to "legitimize" it) that it's no longer enough.

It's not a chasm until they actually don't support one another. If Trump loses and runs independent, or if Trump wins and the responsible adults remaining in the GOP stay home, then I'll believe it. But as long as they're still voting as a bloc the division in the party is optical, not practical.

I was down in our labs where the conservatives hang out and the RWNJ du jour on the radio (Savage, maybe?) was on about how Bernie is not a socialist at all, he's a communist who hates America and ever since the USSR fell has been angling for a USASSR. As long as that stupidity prevails on the right they'll be voting together.

 

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

I think you are overestimating how many of the GOP voters will vote for Trump "just cause". I dont see that happening in the general. I know this is where you will point out that a potted plant with an R will get X amount of votes from the Right but remember that Trump isnt actually part of the Right. In a split up primary season he works because the rest of the clowns thin out the rest of the votes (making his 35% look awesome) but once he gets the nod he is going to run into the problem that in the South he will be regarded as a "Yankee Elitist with New York Ideals" and to the hardcores he is going to be seen as a centrist who is friends with Herr Clinton. Catchy slogans and "Murica F' Yeah" is good enough to beat the Clown Show but he is not GOP enough for any of the GOP bases. That is why he is winning now because the bases are split and he is sort of rising from the ashes.

My guess is unless The Shrill goes Full ****** Trump gets less than Romney did...

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

So I updated my spreadsheet. I decided to try and predict when people start dropping out and tried to divvy up their voters to the remaining candidates.

Trump has more than enough to win the nomination. I'd be curious to see what people think of my numbers since they were pure guesses.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

My guess is unless The Shrill goes Full ****** Trump gets less than Romney did...

Let's see how Trump looks after the primaries are done.

In 2008 McCain got 47.3% of the vote and carried 31 states in the primaries, then got 45.7% and 173 EV in the general.
In 2012 Romney got 52.1% of the vote and carried 37 states in the primaries, then got 47.2% and 206 EV in the general.

 

[Spartanforlife4]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

I like that Nevada just seems to get ignored in the whole process. No early polls, no talk on the news, even with more delegates at stake than NH. All the talk has gone straight to South Carolina.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

I like that Nevada just seems to get ignored in the whole process. No early polls, no talk on the news, even with more delegates at stake than NH. All the talk has gone straight to South Carolina.

Nah, I've heard it talked about a lot on the Democratic side, particularly the juxtaposition of blacks in SC vs Hispanics in NV and whether Sanders can make inroads with either/both.

Meanwhile, the Trump Think Pieces keep on comin'.

 

[walrus]

Bernie and sharpton having a meal, wonder how much al hit him up for?

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

For now Bernie has to just hang around and keep getting money from a couple million people like me. The deep south (conservatives; Black Belt) is bad for him but the Democrats aren't competitive there anyway.

March 1 includes Massachusetts, Minnesota, Ohio, and Vermont, so if he offsets losses in the SEC states with wins in those states that will seem like a push. He still need an own goal by Hillary somewhere along the line, but she will get more and more squirrelly as Bernie hangs around.

I think Ohio is where Bernie stands or falls. If he loses then Hillary can rightfully claim she has the best shot in the purple states. If he wins the narrative takes root that Hillary's main support is states we'll never win anyway, while Bernie's economic populism is tailor made for the rust belt.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

Republicans continue to be unclear on concepts of reality, truth, and filming.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

Ok, here are my assumptions:
If Rubio drops out, his supporters will divide into the following camps:
Trump: 12.5%, Cruz 12.5%, Carson 5%, Kasich 12.5%, Christie 5%, Bush 47.5%, and Fiorina 5%.

Carson:
Trump 7.5%, Cruz, 75%, Rubio 5%, Kasich 5%, Bush 7.5%

Kasich:
Trump 10%, Cruz 10%, Rubio 35%, Christie 10%, Bush 35%

Christie:
Trump 10%, Cruz 10%, Rubio 10%, Kasich 25%, Bush 45%

Bush:
Trump 20%, Cruz 10%, Rubio 20%, Kasich 25%, Christie 25%

Fiorina:
Trump 50%, Cruz 10%, Rubio 20%, Kasich 10%, Christie 10%

Rand Paul:
Trump 30%, Cruz 10%, Rubio 10%, Kasich 30%, Christie 10%, Bush 10%

Huckabee:
Trump 5%, Cruz 90%, Rubio 5%, Carson 5%, Bush 5%

I assume that a candidate's support drops to 5% of their previous support level if they drop out. So if you had 5% support, you go to .25%. The rest of the 95% goes to the candidates in the above percentages.

These were first stabs at it. Looking back on them, they aren't quite right. Anyone have any thoughts on these numbers?

I figure Christie and Fiorina are out now, Carson drops after Nevada, Kasich is out after Super Tuesday, and Bush is out after Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, the Marianas, and Ohio.

I used polling data from RCP and Fivethirtyeight. If that wasn't available, I used data from I Side With taken on a state level over the past month. Better than nothing. Polls are recalculated after each primary day. I don't assign super delegates and assume the districts are divided proportionally along the polling data. So unless the state is a 100% winner-take-all state, I assume it's all proportional.

This ends up giving Trump 1,164, Cruz 807, Rubio 242, Carson 3, Kasich 10, Christie 1, Bush 66, Fiorina 1, Paul 1, and Huckabee 1.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

Good analysis. Agreed that its in Cruz' interest to get rid of Carson. Those are his supporters if he can make nice after the Iowa shenanigans. Could be decisive in SC if Cruz + Carson > Trump.

A sense of entitlement plus lots of cash keeps Jebbers! in it until Florida IMHO. Kasich also lies low, takes a beating in the SEC primary, but hangs around in hopes of being anointed Republican Jesus after northern Goopers become horrified as Trump inches closer to nomination. I think Rubio cuts his losses first if he has a bad SEC primary showing. Young guy, can come back 4 years from now claiming to be more seasoned and wiser. Play the good soldier now and realize its not your time. Bush and Kasich are both in their 60's. This is their last rodeo.

Not sure who Rubio's voters go to however. Its not a straight line like Carson-Cruz or Christie-Bush.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

Good analysis. Agreed that its in Cruz' interest to get rid of Carson. Those are his supporters if he can make nice after the Iowa shenanigans. Could be decisive in SC if Cruz + Carson > Trump.

A sense of entitlement plus lots of cash keeps Jebbers! in it until Florida IMHO. Kasich also lies low, takes a beating in the SEC primary, but hangs around in hopes of being anointed Republican Jesus after northern Goopers become horrified as Trump inches closer to nomination. I think Rubio cuts his losses first if he has a bad SEC primary showing. Young guy, can come back 4 years from now claiming to be more seasoned and wiser. Play the good soldier now and realize its not your time. Bush and Kasich are both in their 60's. This is their last rodeo.

Not sure who Rubio's voters go to however. Its not a straight line like Carson-Cruz or Christie-Bush.

THanks. Agreed on your points as well. I do think that if Rubio can survive Super Tuesday, he's in it for the long haul. I also agree that his voters are nearly unpredictable.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

Every 4 years we hear bleating about a brokered convention, but this is the best chance I've seen (still don't think it will happen however). But, that prospect is going to keep more Establishment stiffs in the race for longer than you'd normally have. Kasich is going to argue he has Rust Belt appeal and can carry Ohio while Trump and Cruz will lose it, and if a Republican can't win Ohio he's toast in the general election. Rubio is going to argue that he has generational appeal and can bring in Latinos plus he's from the even more critical state of Florida, and if a Republican can't win Florida in the general election he's toast as well! Bush is going to claim he's the most broadly acceptable to fundies, corp cons, and military hawks AND he's from Florida plus can raise the bucks needed to compete quickly against the Dems. All this mind you is premised on the party denying the #1 and #2 vote getter the nomination.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

Huckabee:
Trump 5%, Cruz 90%, Rubio 5%, Carson 5%, Bush 5%

Does Huckabee get 110% because he's fat or because he really gives it that extra effort?

The inheritance of votes depends a lot on the drop out order. I'd predict:

Starting percentages (RCP):
Trump 30, Cruz 21, Rubio 18, Carson 8, Bush 4, Kasich 4; drop outs and uncommitted 15

I'm going to distribute that 15 evenly among everyone not named Carson, who appears dead:

Trump 33, Cruz 24, Rubio 21, Carson 8, Bush 7, Kasich 7.

Next out is Carson's 8, which goes: Cruz 6, Trump 2:

Trump 35, Cruz 30, Rubio 21, Bush 7, Kasich 7.

After that the Establishment tells Rubio if he drops now he becomes their future inside track. Rubio's 21 go: Bush 10, Kasich 7, Cruz 4:

Trump 35, Cruz 34, Bush 17, Kasich 14.

And now the establishment has to decide whether they most want to stop Trump (not a conservative) or Cruz (sure general election disaster). They follow the money. The Bush dynasty is pragmatic and so they throw everybody to Kasich:

Trump 35, Cruz 34, Kasich 31.

That takes us into the convention, and then the Big Question that might define the GOP for the next decade is fought out. Any 2 of them can team up to beat the third, but of course one of those two has to settle for VP. And so Cruz reaps the full measure of all the hatreds he has sown:

Trump 66, Cruz 34.

Trump-Kasich vs Clinton-Castro. Let the fun begin.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

Does Huckabee get 110% because he's fat or because he really gives it that extra effort?

Dammit. I thought I caught all of those.

The rest of the post I'll comment on later.