Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

Dammit. I thought I caught all of those.

The rest of the post I'll comment on later.

No worries. In writing my post I kept getting my distribution counts all messed up.

 

[mookie1995]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

Does Huckabee get 110% because he's fat or because he really gives it that extra effort?

110% of 1 is still 1

 

[Spartanforlife4]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

For now Bernie has to just hang around and keep getting money from a couple million people like me. The deep south (conservatives; Black Belt) is bad for him but the Democrats aren't competitive there anyway.

March 1 includes Massachusetts, Minnesota, Ohio, and Vermont, so if he offsets losses in the SEC states with wins in those states that will seem like a push. He still need an own goal by Hillary somewhere along the line, but she will get more and more squirrelly as Bernie hangs around.

I think Ohio is where Bernie stands or falls. If he loses then Hillary can rightfully claim she has the best shot in the purple states. If he wins the narrative takes root that Hillary's main support is states we'll never win anyway, while Bernie's economic populism is tailor made for the rust belt.

I think Bernie's biggest hurdle may not be a particular state, but rather states that have a registration deadline or re-registration deadline prior to election day. A decent portion of his voter base are those unfamiliar with the voting process, whether that be due to age or just non-participation. We saw what happened in Iowa where they actually ran out of registration forms. How many people are waiting until the last minute, or believe their state is like other states where they can register at the door?

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

I think Bernie's biggest hurdle may not be a particular state, but rather states that have a registration deadline or re-registration deadline prior to election day. A decent portion of his voter base are those unfamiliar with the voting process, whether that be due to age or just non-participation. We saw what happened in Iowa where they actually ran out of registration forms. How many people are waiting until the last minute, or believe their state is like other states where they can register at the door?

Good point, and why campaigns are as much about educating voters as they are about collecting donations and swaying voters.

 

[mookie1995]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

I think Bernie's biggest hurdle may not be a particular state, but rather states that have a registration deadline or re-registration deadline prior to election day. A decent portion of his voter base are those unfamiliar with the voting process, whether that be due to age or just non-participation. We saw what happened in Iowa where they actually ran out of registration forms. How many people are waiting until the last minute, or believe their state is like other states where they can register at the door?

if only Dems would make it easier to vote.....

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

if only Dems would make it easier to vote.....

It would be pretty funny if the GOP's voter suppression tactics wound up giving the nomination to Bernie.

Careful what you wish for, kittens.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

Worth a try.

"There is of course no problem with superdelegates choosing to endorse whichever candidate they prefer, but when it comes time to select the party’s nominee at the Democratic Convention, superdelegates must stand with voters and honor the outcomes of primaries and caucuses held across the country. The party’s base simply will not tolerate any anti-democratic efforts by superdelegates to thwart the will of the people."

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

I think we're putting the cart before the horse, or to put a better way this is a problem that will solve itself. The only way Sanders gets burned on superdelegates is if the race is a virtual tie and they break for Hillary over him. That wouldn't be a shock since she's been a Democrat most of her life while Sanders joined the party a couple of months ago. However we're a long way away from that scenario and I don't believe delegate pledges are permanent until they make them during the voting at the convention. This is one of those instances where Bernie needs to tell his supporters to relax, smoke a little more dope, and let things play out a little more.

 

[geezer]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

It would be pretty funny if the GOP's voter suppression tactics wound up giving the nomination to Bernie.
Careful what you wish for, kittens.

The RNC has been actively campaigning for Bernie to get nominated, with the surety that he's be a much easier opponent in the general since Americans at large would never vote for a socialist. I think it would be completely wonderful if they succeeded, he was then elected over Cruz, and they all went "or wait..." in unison.

she's been a Democrat most of her life while Sanders joined the party a couple of months ago.

I read somewhere that he has not officially joined the party. He's just using it to run for president but he's still Independent Socialist.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

I think we're putting the cart before the horse, or to put a better way this is a problem that will solve itself. The only way Sanders gets burned on superdelegates is if the race is a virtual tie and they break for Hillary over him. That wouldn't be a shock since she's been a Democrat most of her life while Sanders joined the party a couple of months ago. However we're a long way away from that scenario and I don't believe delegate pledges are permanent until they make them during the voting at the convention. This is one of those instances where Bernie needs to tell his supporters to relax, smoke a little more dope, and let things play out a little more.

No, it's framing the issue and getting ahead of the game. We saw how important that was in 2000 when Dubya's goons and enablers all acted like he'd won throughout the recounts, so when the Court finally appointed him there was much less outcry.

The other thing is Hillary's superdelegate lead is one of the reasons people think the fix is in and Bernie can't win. By bursting that perception now, Bernie improves troop and supporter morale and also reminds everybody that Hillary is the establishment's Anointed One, which is death this cycle.

It also invites Hillary to hurt herself by pretending to be an outsider. The lack of self-awareness it takes for her to play that card is her most damaging trait, even worse than her aura of dishonesty and desperate entitlement. The more she shows that side of herself, the more the hunger for authenticity this cycle works for Sanders.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

The RNC has been actively campaigning for Bernie to get nominated, with the surety that he's be a much easier opponent in the general since Americans at large would never vote for a socialist. I think it would be completely wonderful if they succeeded, he was then elected over Cruz, and they all went "or wait..." in unison.

The RNC is behind those ads that talk about how the Clintons have been so bad for black Americans. They really, really want Bernie.

This may be an election cycle where Republicans are more excited about Bernie and the Democrats are more excited about Trump.

 

[mookie1995]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

I think we're putting the cart before the horse, or to put a better way this is a problem that will solve itself. The only way Sanders gets burned on superdelegates is if the race is a virtual tie and they break for Hillary over him. That wouldn't be a shock since she's been a Democrat most of her life while Sanders joined the party a couple of months ago. However we're a long way away from that scenario and I don't believe delegate pledges are permanent until they make them during the voting at the convention. This is one of those instances where Bernie needs to tell his supporters to relax, smoke a little more dope, and let things play out a little more.

nah.
it's good for him to be able to change his talking points every once in a while. to keep harping on the same old speech every single time he gets in front of a camera will encourage a tune-out, or some news director will just bag it and go with something else.
a fresh angle works.

 

[geezer]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

This may be an election cycle where Republicans are more excited about Bernie and the Democrats are more excited about Trump.

And the tragedy is that, of these two "outsiders", a certain one will be a nominee.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

No, it's framing the issue and getting ahead of the game. We saw how important that was in 2000 when Dubya's goons and enablers all acted like he'd won throughout the recounts, so when the Court finally appointed him there was much less outcry.

The other thing is Hillary's superdelegate lead is one of the reasons people think the fix is in and Bernie can't win. By bursting that perception now, Bernie improves troop and supporter morale and also reminds everybody that Hillary is the establishment's Anointed One, which is death this cycle.

It also invites Hillary to hurt herself by pretending to be an outsider. The lack of self-awareness it takes for her to play that card is her most damaging trait, even worse than her aura of dishonesty and desperate entitlement. The more she shows that side of herself, the more the hunger for authenticity this cycle works for Sanders.

At some point though you cross the line into paranoid lunacy. As I've said before, everybody knew the rules going in. Bernie is free of course to make an issue out of this and make yet more enemies out of people he should be courting instead. However, if he does so Hillary is fair to point out what exactly has Bernie done to elect progressives over the last 25 years with the notable exception of himself? I've seen plenty of campaign surrogates come in to help out in Massachusetts. I don't ever recall Sanders being one of them, even in the tightly contested Scott Brown-Elizabeth Warren race. If Sanders hasn't been a team player in the past, why should party people support him now?

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

nah.
it's good for him to be able to change his talking points every once in a while. to keep harping on the same old speech every single time he gets in front of a camera will encourage a tune-out, or some news director will just bag it and go with something else.
a fresh angle works.

It shouldn't be him, though. It should be a surrogate, or at most his campaign manager. A candidate who publicly gets into debating process seems petty or micromanaging or nit picky. Dukakis had this problem, as did Dole, and then Hillary herself in '08. Any time a candidate whines about not getting enough time in a debate or enough coverage by the media, or the wrong kind of coverage, they fall into it.

This is why you have tiers of enablers and surrogates carrying water for you, placed in your campaign, the party, and the media. This is what Mook, DWS, and half of CNN do for Hillary. Bernie needs those archers as well.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

At some point though you cross the line into paranoid lunacy. As I've said before, everybody knew the rules going in. Bernie is free of course to make an issue out of this and make yet more enemies out of people he should be courting instead. However, if he does so Hillary is fair to point out what exactly has Bernie done to elect progressives over the last 25 years with the notable exception of himself? I've seen plenty of campaign surrogates come in to help out in Massachusetts. I don't ever recall Sanders being one of them, even in the tightly contested Scott Brown-Elizabeth Warren race. If Sanders hasn't been a team player in the past, why should party people support him now?

I don't think Hillary wants to get involved in a debate with Bernie as to who has done more for progressives, him or the Clintons. It only highlights the degree to which the Clintons helped steer the Democratic party away from liberalism in the 90s. Now, you and I know that at the time that looked like the best we could do, but times have changed now. Hillary should in fact, get out there and say Bill's presidency was about the possibilities granted by the political environment then, and hers will be about now. That would help people like me who want to believe she is more liberal than her record cut her some slack.

 

[mookie1995]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

At some point though you cross the line into paranoid lunacy....

ah, we ARE talking about democrats here duh! *******s. HELLO!!!

 

[mookie1995]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

wait a minute!!!!

one can't type

L
I
B
T
A
R
D

on our chat boards?!?!!?

 

[mookie1995]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

I don't think Hillary wants to get involved in a debate with Bernie as to who has done more for progressives, him or the Clintons. It only highlights the degree to which the Clintons helped steer the Democratic party away from liberalism in the 90s. Now, you and I know that at the time that looked like the best we could do, but times have changed now. Hillary should in fact, get out there and say Bill's presidency was about the possibilities granted by the political environment then, and hers will be about now. That would help people like me who want to believe she is more liberal than her record cut her some slack.

???? the first black president wasn't a liberal?

 

[St. Clown]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

wait a minute!!!!

one can't type

L
I
B
T
A
R
D

on our chat boards?!?!!?

Dr. Who fans can't type out Tardis either.