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Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

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Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

As much as I wish the US would move left towards Bernie, I don't think he is going to keep this up. Clinton is going to grind this one out. It won't be the coronation she expected, but she'll end up with the nomination none the less.

What I hope is that the next generation of Democrats are going to continue what Bernie has started.

This is how I feel, exactly. I do not see any way for Bernie to overcome Hillary's establishment advantages, particularly when there is a sizeable chunk of elderly Clintonistas who are quite comfortable with the plutocracy and would actively work against liberals trying to thwart it. So Bernie won't win this battle, but I am hoping that right now 4 out of 5 young people being drawn into the Democratic party are being drawn in because of liberal goals and values.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

Out of 712 Superdelagates, Hill has 355 of them with 341 uncommitted. Source: Wikipedia)

I think that may be a subset of all non-voted delegates, since as I recall the Democrats actually have over 3000 superdelegates of all stripes.

I could be wrong and it could be there are 700 supers and then about 2500 regular delegates.

Edit: nope, you're right I'm wrong. There are 4763 Democratic delegates. 4051 are "pledged" delegates. 762 are "unpledged."

here's the breakdown so you don't have to look at DWS' ugly face.

There are two basic types of Democratic convention delegates: pledged and unpledged. A candidate is eligible to win a share of the pledged delegates at stake in a state if he or she receives at least 15 percent of votes cast in a primary or the preferences expressed in a caucus, either in a congressional district or statewide. Individuals who are pledged delegates are "pledged" to support the candidate to whom they are allocated. There are expected to be approximately 4,051 pledged delegates at the 2016 convention. There are three categories of pledged delegates: congressional district delegates, at-large delegates and pledged party leader and elected officials (PLEO delegates).

Congressional district delegates are allocated proportionally based on the results of the primary or caucus in a congressional district. The number of district delegates that are apportioned to each congressional district is determined by the Democratic vote in each district in recent elections. At-large delegates are allocated proportionally based on the statewide results in the primary or caucus. Pledged party leaders and elected officials (PLEO delegates) are delegates by virtue of their office; PLEO delegates can include statewide elected officials, state legislators, local elected officials or party leaders. PLEO delegates are allocated proportionally based on the statewide results of the primary or caucus.

Candidates are only eligible to receive a share of the pledged delegates at stake—congressional district delegates, at-large delegates or PLEO delegates—if they win at least 15 percent of votes cast in a primary or the preferences expressed in a caucus. That standard is commonly referred to as the 15 percent threshold. In addition to pledged delegates, there are alternate delegates for each state, Washington, D.C., Puerto Rico, and the U.S. territories. Alternates attend the convention but do not vote unless a pledged delegate is unable to attend.

Unpledged delegates, often referred to as "superdelegates," are automatic delegates to the convention and are not required to pledge their support to a presidential candidate. Unpledged delegates are members of the Democratic National Committee, Democratic members of Congress, Democratic governors, or distinguished party leaders (such as former presidents or vice presidents). There are expected to be approximately 713 unpledged Democratic convention delegates in 2016. If an unpledged delegate is unable to attend the convention, an alternate delegate is not substituted as a replacement.

The Democratic National Committee sets the rules that determine the overall composition of pledged delegates in state delegations (including those from Washington, D.C., Puerto Rico, and the U.S. territories). Delegations must be equally divided between men and women. Each state must set specific goals for the number of pledged delegates who are African-Americans, Hispanics, Native Americans, and Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders. Also, states are required to conduct outreach efforts, such as recruitment and training, to groups that have traditionally been underrepresented in the political process because of their race, ethnicity, age, sexual orientation or disability.
 
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Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

Yes and no. Back in 2008 we were all talking how brilliant Obama's campaign was to master the caucus and delegate accumulation process including wooing superdelegates even though Hillary won the popular vote in some major states (CA, TX)

I don't remember Obama wooing any superdelegates in 2008. As I recall Hillary had a huge initial committed superdelegate advantage and her people were using that as part of their "nothing to see here, it's already decided, move along" strategy. Plouff's "genius" move was to figure out the delegate assignment rules for all the primaries and caucuses and realize caucuses were a market inefficiency, then build an algorithm to optimize resources committed for delegates won. In other words: he did what any competent campaign would have done, and one has to wonder why on Earth Hillary's didn't. Cough entitlement cough.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

So does he endorse Bush or Kasich? I'm guessing Bush. It certainly won't be Rubio

He's from Joisey. He sells his endorsement to the highest bidder, then tells the other guys, "it's not personal, Sonny, it's strictly business."
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

I don't remember Obama wooing any superdelegates in 2008. As I recall Hillary had a huge initial committed superdelegate advantage and her people were using that as part of their "nothing to see here, it's already decided, move along" strategy. Plouff's "genius" move was to figure out the delegate assignment rules for all the primaries and caucuses and realize caucuses were a market inefficiency, then build an algorithm to optimize resources committed for delegates won. In other words: he did what any competent campaign would have done, and one has to wonder why on Earth Hillary's didn't. Cough entitlement cough.

Obama lined up a lot of Establishment support. Ted Kennedy for example was all in, as was Daschle. This had to carry sway with superdelegates. Obama had much more institutional Dem support, most likely because he's always been a Dem. Like or dislike his reasons, but Sanders wasn't a Dem until a couple of months ago, so its a bit tough to ask longtime Dem activists to suddenly side with him unless again he's winning overwhelmingly around the country.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

Obama lined up a lot of Establishment support. Ted Kennedy for example was all in, as was Daschle. This had to carry sway with superdelegates. Obama had much more institutional Dem support, most likely because he's always been a Dem. Like or dislike his reasons, but Sanders wasn't a Dem until a couple of months ago, so its a bit tough to ask longtime Dem activists to suddenly side with him unless again he's winning overwhelmingly around the country.

I don't know that Sanders is actually a member of the Democratic party even now. I'm not sure one has to be to run -- wasn't Eisenhower approached by both parties? He's been quite frank about using the best mechanism he can to move a liberal agenda. Simply it was less of a reach to go for an established albeit centrist party than to try a Green approach. Right now at least he seems to have been quite right.

There are closet liberals in the Democratic party who have soldiered on for decades while being rewarded by the party elites with nothing but scorn and betrayal. Rachel Maddow said it best last night: most of us have felt like people without a party since the 90s. Bernie is our turn to voice our values and policies. But we've been quite loyal to the Democrats despite them turning their backs on us. The question is: will the center be as magnanimous if we win, or will they sulk?
 
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Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

Yes and no. Back in 2008 we were all talking how brilliant Obama's campaign was to master the caucus and delegate accumulation process including wooing superdelegates even though Hillary won the popular vote in some major states (CA, TX). Its the same rules for 2016, but suddenly the process is unfair? Everybody knew the rules going in (except for maybe Hillary's 2008 campaign manager :eek:).

Having said that, if Bernie starts killing it in the remaining states, I don't see superdelegates denying him the nomination if he's 699 short and all 700 vote for Hillary. Most likely they'll go with whoever's winning, but yes if Bernie and Hillary end up even in delegates won through the primaries I can see superdelegates putting her over the top.

I dunno...Obama had other factors which helped SD side with him that Bernie just doesnt have. Unless Hillary has a Dean-like moment they are hers to lose.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

This is how I feel, exactly. I do not see any way for Bernie to overcome Hillary's establishment advantages, particularly when there is a sizeable chunk of elderly Clintonistas who are quite comfortable with the plutocracy and would actively work against liberals trying to thwart it. So Bernie won't win this battle, but I am hoping that right now 4 out of 5 young people being drawn into the Democratic party are being drawn in because of liberal goals and values.

To be fair though, you thought no one could beat Jeb! for the same reasons ;) The Establishment doesnt always get what it wants. (or Hill would have won in '08)
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

I don't know that Sanders is actually a member of the Democratic party even now. I'm not sure one has to be to run -- wasn't Eisenhower approached by both parties? He's been quite frank about using the best mechanism he can to move a liberal agenda. Simply it was less of a reach to go for an established albeit centrist party than to try a Green approach. Right now at least he seems to have been quite right.

There are closet liberals in the Democratic party who have soldiered on for decades while being rewarded by the party elites with nothing but scorn and betrayal. Rachel Maddow said it best last night: most of us have felt like people without a party since the 90s. Bernie is our turn to voice our values and policies. But we've been quite loyal to the Democrats despite them turning their backs on us. The question is: will the center be as magnanimous if we win, or will they sulk?

That's a debate Hillary needs to be having with Sanders. Do you or do you not think Obama's Presidency has been a success for liberalism? I'm curious what his answer and his tone would be. Either you think the Obama era battles were worth it or you don't aside from the obvious goal of keeping the Republicans out of the White House.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

That's a debate Hillary needs to be having with Sanders. Do you or do you not think Obama's Presidency has been a success for liberalism? I'm curious what his answer and his tone would be. Either you think the Obama era battles were worth it or you don't aside from the obvious goal of keeping the Republicans out of the White House.

Kennedy/Nixon debate questions for the fall.
"The role and powers of the President in the 21st century."
"The role and powers of the Congress in the 21st century."
"The role and powers of the Courts in the 21st century."
These deal with the vision of the new president and the Constitution. Then I want a couple of debates on the economy and one on foreign policy.

6 debates - 6 weeks. Then we'll know who we're voting for and why.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

That's a debate Hillary needs to be having with Sanders. Do you or do you not think Obama's Presidency has been a success for liberalism? I'm curious what his answer and his tone would be. Either you think the Obama era battles were worth it or you don't aside from the obvious goal of keeping the Republicans out of the White House.

I agree, and I think that would help both candidates. Hillary could say "Obama showed what was possible in an environment when you have obstructionist opposition politicians who will sacrifice not just the national interest but even their own party interest for their personal gain. I will keep that pressure up. Politics is the art of the possible." Bernie could say "Obama was fine as far as he went, but that should be regarded as a center position on our political spectrum. With Obama battling the Republicans we have a center and a far right. I will restore a left and finally take this nation out of the rightward death spiral of the last 36 years. To hit the target, aim high."
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

Kennedy/Nixon debate questions for the fall.
"The role and powers of the President in the 21st century."
"The role and powers of the Congress in the 21st century."
"The role and powers of the Courts in the 21st century."
These deal with the vision of the new president and the Constitution. Then I want a couple of debates on the economy and one on foreign policy.

6 debates - 6 weeks. Then we'll know who we're voting for and why.

"The role and powers of the public sector in the 21st century."
"The role and powers of the private sector in the 21st century."
"The role and powers of the United States in the 21st century."
 
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That's a debate Hillary needs to be having with Sanders. Do you or do you not think Obama's Presidency has been a success for liberalism? I'm curious what his answer and his tone would be. Either you think the Obama era battles were worth it or you don't aside from the obvious goal of keeping the Republicans out of the White House.

Why do you think hilly is "BHO p2"?

She didn't back him in 2008. She ran against him. If she is trying to be BHO 2, she isn't expressing that. She is talking how she is her own person blah blah blah.

Why the hell did 55% of the women voting in D primary last night side with Bernie? How is telling everyone that she is BHO p2 and Bernie thinks BHO p1 is bad going to change that.

People KNOW she was in the admin.

If river is ascared of bern losing the general, you need to find a savior outside of the current 2 peeps running.

Hitch your wagon to Bloomberg :D
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

Christie may be waddling off the stage of history, but he took one for America on the way out.

But his stunning meltdown in Saturday’s GOP debate ended all that, and Rubio staggered to a fifth place finish, a devastating setback for a candidate who seemed on the verge of consolidating support from mainstream Republicans and moving closer to forcing Bush out of the race.

“It’s ended Marco Rubio’s chance to be the Republican nominee in my estimation,” said Steve Schmidt, the GOP strategist who guided John McCain’s 2008 campaign. “If he finishes below his mentor Jeb Bush, the rationale for his candidacy collapses.”

A group of Bush donors had been set to announce they were shifting their support to Rubio as early as Wednesday. But when Bush finished just ahead of Rubio Tuesday night, those donors remain frozen in place at least through South Carolina

Take it away, Koala Kong.
 
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Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

Why do you think hilly is "BHO p2"?

She didn't back him in 2008. She ran against him. If she is trying to be BHO 2, she isn't expressing that. She is talking how she is her own person blah blah blah.

Why the hell did 55% of the women voting in D primary last night side with Bernie? How is telling everyone that she is BHO p2 and Bernie thinks BHO p1 is bad going to change that.

People KNOW she was in the admin.

If river is ascared of bern losing the general, you need to find a savior outside of the current 2 peeps running.

Hitch your wagon to Bloomberg :D

She's not uniting behind one theme behind her candidacy. Simple works. Sanders = overthrow everything. Doesn't matter to his supporters that he'll get little done. They've already rationalized it as either 1) he's just aiming high (Kep's view), 2) he's the Second Coming, or 3) he commands a previously unidentified cadre of liberals who've been sitting out elections even as progressive candidates have lost but will come out for Bernie and take back Congress.

Clinton needs to do a better job coming out loud and proud and making this primary race a referendum on the Obama Presidency. Simple and easy. Either you think we should be continuing the progress of the Obama years or the whole thing was a waste of time so blow it up. As you say, she's part of the Administration. She won over Obama voters in Iowa. People who voted for him twice might not want to hear that was all for naught.
 
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