Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

I dont like any of that mind you, but the writing is on the wall. Hillary is going to win.

Good to have you aboard Handy! Sanders has a similar problem that Cruz and Rubio face which is when you're facing an opponent with universal name recognition its tough to break through once the state primaries start coming in bunches. Sanders and Rubio both need to be able to play the momentum card which is hard to do if you're not finishing in 1st place. Cruz is a little different animal in that he has an Evangelical base and he represents the largest GOP state, but he needs to crush Trump there and win the lions share of delegates. I read in Real Clear Politics that Trump is up on 10 of the 14 Super Tuesday states. If that holds, this contest is over.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

If she's so terrible, why is she beating Sanders? How's he looking in South Carolina?

Rubio has little chance of being the nominee, and once again this is where you and the national media are aligned pimping a guy who's finished in 3rd, 5th, and tied for 2nd in the first three contests and is about to get croaked in the 4th (NV).

Rubio will get crushed by Clinton as she makes him look like a guy in way over his head, which in fact he is. W was in his 50's, the son of a President, and a 2 term governor of the 2nd biggest state when he ran for Prez. Rubio is a one term Senator who rarely shows up for work and has shown little ability to connect with people if he can't beat a circus clown from Manhattan in his own back yard.

She's beating Sanders because Bernie's an ancient cranky Jew without a comb who joined the party last Tuesday, running an unapologetically democratic socialist platform like he was trying to win a mayorality in Copenhagen. She should not be beating him 52-48, she should be beating him 95-5!

I hope you're right about Rubio. I hear the same things said about him "he's polished!, he's young and smart!" that I heard about Dubya and which I never saw. I saw C+ Augustus as a lazy, entitled, clueless frat boy, not just during his campaigning but also throughout those 8 terrible White House years. And now Rubio looks the same, except for frat boy substitute lickspittle toady. But that apparently is a feature, not a bug, with this electorate.

If he gets swept on Super Tuesday I'll feel much better. I'm ignoring the early results because the establishment lane was still crowded, but now it's down to him and Kasich.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

Don't discount the man's appeal to lefty nutters like yourself! You make up more than 5% of the Democratic electorate.

No comparison between Rubio and W. By this time Bush had won Iowa and SC. Yes he lost NH but to a better candidate (McCain) than Donald freakin' Trump. That's 2 wins to zero for Rubio at the same point in the campaign. In your opinion, what state is Rubio going to win in, or does he ride 3rd place finishes all the way to the nomination?

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

Don't discount the man's appeal to lefty nutters like yourself! You make up more than 5% of the Democratic electorate.

Yeah, I know, but we are also realistic and would be backing Hillary if she was a little bit more palatable. The Workers World Party runs a candidate every election; doesn't mean we're lining up for Monica Moorehead.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

In your opinion, what state is Rubio going to win in, or does he ride 3rd place finishes all the way to the nomination?

My worry, which I think is well founded, is that the RNC now has one guy to focus everything behind. It looks like Trump's ceiling is 35% and Cruz' is 25%. That leaves 40% for Rubio. As we get into winner-take-all states he starts racking up wins. Neither Cruz nor Trump has the incentive to bow to the other, so 40 is going to start winning states. Trump is like any fad -- he's only A Thing until he's not, and once the air starts coming out it will go quickly. And a choice between a messy convention or using Rubio to kill off Cruz is an easy pick for party loyalists.

Now if Kasich gains traction or Carson is actually a cross-party draw for blacks in open southern primaries the race can go back to chaos (and let's all hope so). But the big establishment threat was always consolidation, and we're almost there. And Kasich is a natural for being bought off for the Veep slot since that's a win for everybody.

So: I worry. Rubio should not be underestimated because voters should not be overestimated.

 

[mookie1995]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

Shoplifters of the world.....
Unite and take over

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

My worry, which I think is well founded, is that the RNC now has one guy to focus everything behind. It looks like Trump's ceiling is 35% and Cruz' is 25%. That leaves 40% for Rubio. As we get into winner-take-all states he starts racking up wins. Neither Cruz nor Trump has the incentive to bow to the other, so 40 is going to start winning states. Trump is like any fad -- he's only A Thing until he's not, and once the air starts coming out it will go quickly. And a choice between a messy convention or using Rubio to kill off Cruz is an easy pick for party loyalists.

Now if Kasich gains traction or Carson is actually a cross-party draw for blacks in open southern primaries the race can go back to chaos (and let's all hope so). But the big establishment threat was always consolidation, and we're almost there. And Kasich is a natural for being bought off for the Veep slot since that's a win for everybody.

So: I worry. Rubio should not be underestimated because voters should not be overestimated.

Why do you assume that Rubio will get everything as people drop out? It hasn't been happening that way so far. I don't buy for a minute that Trump has a ceiling. Every time someone says he does his numbers go up.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

Shoplifters of the world.....
Unite and take over

I was bored before I even began

 

[mookie1995]

I was bored before I even began

(They are the best)

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

I disagree on Trump's ceiling. When Carson drops out he'll get a good portion if those votes. Also, if Cruz slips a little, he'll get almost all of those votes.

Meanwhile, there's zero reason for Kasich to drop out in favor of Rubio until the primary gets to Ohio in mid-March. If Rubio goes 0-for-Super Tuesday, then the contest switches to places like Michigan, Illinois and the aforementioned Ohio, why not position yourself as the true Establishment guy who can win? Kasich is 64 I think. A VP pick renders his political career basically over. Like Jebbers! he's either winning this year or he's done for good.

EDIT: What Scooby said.

 

[mookie1995]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

Trump is the only chance to beat hilly. Only one.

 

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

Good to have you aboard Handy! Sanders has a similar problem that Cruz and Rubio face which is when you're facing an opponent with universal name recognition its tough to break through once the state primaries start coming in bunches. Sanders and Rubio both need to be able to play the momentum card which is hard to do if you're not finishing in 1st place. Cruz is a little different animal in that he has an Evangelical base and he represents the largest GOP state, but he needs to crush Trump there and win the lions share of delegates. I read in Real Clear Politics that Trump is up on 10 of the 14 Super Tuesday states. If that holds, this contest is over.

I am not aboard...accepting the inevitable doesnt mean I support it.

 

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

Um. Trump support is growing. It's not just 33% crazy anymore.

Yes it is...but you keep tilting your windmills listening to whatever baseless poll or opinion you like. You were wrong about Walker, you were wrong about Rubio and you are wrong about Trump.

But please, tell me which swing state Obama won is going to vote for Trump over Hillary...

 

[MaizeRage]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

She's beating Sanders because Bernie's an ancient cranky Jew without a comb who joined the party last Tuesday, running an unapologetically democratic socialist platform like he was trying to win a mayorality in Copenhagen. She should not be beating him 52-48, she should be beating him 95-5!

Yeah, it's unfathomable that voters, especially young ones, jumped on the bandwagon of the candidate that promised every American a pony for their birthday.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

Yes it is...but you keep tilting your windmills listening to whatever baseless poll or opinion you like. You were wrong about Walker, you were wrong about Rubio and you are wrong about Trump.

But please, tell me which swing state Obama won is going to vote for Trump over Hillary...

Not wrong about Rubio. The establishment is in lock step over to his campaign. He's got that whole establishment ball of wax now. It won't be enough to derail Trump. Trump destroyed Walker. He destroyed Bush. Trump is the X-Factor in the campaign.

You appear to think that States can't be flipped. We'll see. I bet Trump wins Florida and maybe Ohio if I was to choose right now. That would kill Hillary right there.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

I disagree on Trump's ceiling. When Carson drops out he'll get a good portion if those votes. Also, if Cruz slips a little, he'll get almost all of those votes.

I think Carson's few remaining votes go to Cruz. They each have that faux seriousness and they run the same religious themes.

If Cruz slides, his protest votes go to Trump, but his arch-conservative votes don't. Trump has no conservative ideological bona fides. His ideology is Himself -- he doesn't project belief in anything else. Hard right conservatives endow their (erroneous) ideological proclamations with Scriptural infallibility. They are't going to back a guy who is just as likely to create an even more encompassing TrumpCare as he is to abolish ObamaCare. Plus of course the paranoids on the right, of whom there are millions, believe he's a Clinton black op.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

I think Carson's few remaining votes go to Cruz. They each have that faux seriousness and they run the same religious themes.

If Cruz slides, his protest votes go to Trump, but his arch-conservative votes don't. Trump has no conservative ideological bona fides. His ideology is Himself -- he doesn't project belief in anything else. Hard right conservatives endow their (erroneous) ideological proclamations with Scriptural infallibility. They are't going to back a guy who is just as likely to create an even more encompassing TrumpCare as he is to abolish ObamaCare. Plus of course the paranoids on the right, of whom there are millions, believe he's a Clinton black op.

Did you or Handy even look at the South Carolina numbers? Trump won every category. He won the military and Evangelicals. Cruz was supposed to win that Primary just like he won Iowa. He came in 3rd.

Trump has no ceiling. He has no demographics.

 

[Spartanforlife4]

Yeah, it's unfathomable that voters, especially young ones, jumped on the bandwagon of the candidate that promised every American a pony for their birthday.

Last I checked, while Vermin Supreme did finish 4th in New Hampshire, he does not garner that much of the youth vote.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

Did you or Handy even look at the South Carolina numbers? Trump won every category. He won the military and Evangelicals. Cruz was supposed to win that Primary just like he won Iowa. He came in 3rd.

Trump has no ceiling. He has no demographics.

Exactly. I'm as surprised by this as anybody, but Trump is even taking away Evangelicals from the rest of the field. He's leading in 10 out of the 14 Super Tuesday states and is only down by single digits in Texas - his main rival's home state. If he runs the table next week, will people THEN realize that maybe, just maybe, he's the front runner?

No way he should have won SC. Yet, he won it by double digits!

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!

Good article RE: Jebbers!/Clinton

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/02/