Re: Campaign 2016 - Primary season! Duck (questions) season!
So I updated the polls and I reran my Primary spreadsheet now that Bush dropped way, way before I think any of us anticipated.
After ST it's predicting:
Trump: 361
Cruz: 284
Rubio: 140
Kasich: 23
Bush: 4
Carson: 3
Fiorina, Paul, and Huckabee: 1
Note that I included Colorado (this is a no preference poll) and North Dakota (which is a non-binding vote and it's ultimately up to the delegates as I understand it). Also note that due to rounding errors, the number of delegates might not match the total up for grabs.
Kasich's bread and butter is coming between March 8th and March 15th. I don't know if he'll run out of money or not before then, but he might drop after Super Tuesday or he could hold out a little and see what happens with 3/15 votes.
The biggest potential swings for ST results come in Texas. If Cruz can get up to 50% at the state level, he takes the entire delegate pool. Given the polling in Texas was at 37.6% Cruz with 18.4% uncommitted and 5.5% still for Carson, it's a distinct possibility. That would push 60 delegates from Trump to Cruz. If that happens, Cruz ends up taking the lead at 344 to 301. I think things get a bit crazy if that happens.
Smaller swings take place if Cruz can't pull above 20% in Georgia (19.3 now based on the 538 projected results), ditto with Rubio in Vermont and Tennessee. Georgia would pull 11 from Trump and 12 from Rubio and give 23 to Cruz. Tennessee would 7 from Trump and 6 from Cruz and give 13 to Rubio. Vermont would pull 5 from Trump and give them to Rubio.
If you forecast all the way to the end without anyone new dropping out and that gives you:
Trump: 1,263
Cruz: 763
Rubio: 303
Kasich: 68
Released delegates: 10
Unaccounted for Delegates (Somoa, Virgin Islands, etc.): 55
(I hope that all adds up)
We're mighty close to seeing a brokered convention given these numbers.
Edit: Here's where the fireworks begin.
Now say Kasich drops out after ST. This should be plenty enough to swing Florida from Trump to Rubio (-99 to +99, respectively), Trump loses Indiana to Cruz (-57 to +57, respectively), and Rubio qualifies in Louisana (-6 Trump, -4 Cruz, +10 Rubio), and a lot of my rounding errors go away.
That gives us the brilliant result of:
Trump: 1,110
Cruz: 832
Rubio: 434
========
Kasich: 23
Bush: 4
Carson 3
F/P/H: 1 each
That means 31 get released and I still haven't included the protectorates.
Throughout the entire thing, California is the biggest question. There is going to be a crazy, cutthroat race there. It's winner-take-all and there are 172 delegates up for grabs. The latest projections from 538 have it at 22.1 Trump, 21.5 Cruz, 12.6 Rubio, 11.4 Carson, and 32.4% uncommitted. Cruz takes California in just about all of my scenarios.
The Establishment has until March 15th to get it's **** together. After that, it's Trump all the way.
Edit 2:
More potential landmines are in Wisconsin and New York. It's a three-way tie in Wisky for all the marbles and New York could see Rubio crack 20% and steal a good chunk of delegates from Trump and Cruz.
You're going to win the primary, boy... win with dignity.
