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Campaign 2016 Part XIII: Clinton destrueretur est. Trump est destruetur. Vox Populi!
- Thread starter joecct
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Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIII: Clinton destrueretur est. Trump est destruetur. Vox Pop
That's his plan, but he's in a bind. The lower he goes to scoop NCEW, the more he drives away every other category.
That's his plan, but he's in a bind. The lower he goes to scoop NCEW, the more he drives away every other category.
mookie1995
there's a good buck in that racket.
Doesn't he know everyone is watching OJ?!??
mookie1995
there's a good buck in that racket.
dxmnkd316
Lucia Apologist
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIII: Clinton destrueretur est. Trump est destruetur. Vox Pop
Yah, but when your largest bloc is NCEW, Clinton would need to win a proportionally higher amount of CEW. Blacks, Hispanics, and Asians are already pushing max D/R spread or historical turnout on that tool.
Hillary will need to have a good general and people like Handy will NEED to get out and vote. If CEW don't turn out thinking they aren't needed, it's going to be a long four-year vacation in Canada.
Yah, but when your largest bloc is NCEW, Clinton would need to win a proportionally higher amount of CEW. Blacks, Hispanics, and Asians are already pushing max D/R spread or historical turnout on that tool.
Hillary will need to have a good general and people like Handy will NEED to get out and vote. If CEW don't turn out thinking they aren't needed, it's going to be a long four-year vacation in Canada.
dxmnkd316
Lucia Apologist
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIII: Clinton destrueretur est. Trump est destruetur. Vox Pop
A PAC I can get behind. I would consider sending them money.
http://gawker.com/anti-trump-tiny-hands-pac-runs-first-tv-ad-in-washing-1782136392
Also, from the comments I particularly liked this one. the commenter went to a trump rally and described it thusly:
A PAC I can get behind. I would consider sending them money.
http://gawker.com/anti-trump-tiny-hands-pac-runs-first-tv-ad-in-washing-1782136392
Also, from the comments I particularly liked this one. the commenter went to a trump rally and described it thusly:
Conservative, Republican-dominated, mainly rural, gateway to the vast expanse called Canada, states that grow potatoes in the farming regions?
The difference? Maine got all our trees. (And I'm lookin' at you, walrus.)
I wouldn't call Maine Republican Dominated. Democrats dominated state government for 40 years, but lost the house and senate during the tea party wave. They won the house back, and I wouldn't be surprised for them to win the senate back. I think the GOP might hold onto the Blane House because rumor is Susan Collins will run for governor.
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIII: Clinton destrueretur est. Trump est destruetur. Vox Pop
She needs nothing of the sort. Hillary needs to turn out the Obama 2012 coalition, and he was hardly rocking it with the older white working class. If she does that there aren't enough Goopers to make up the 5-6M vote difference that Trump needs to win. Yes, you can win an election even by losing the popular vote although its a rare occurrence. I doubt you can win the election when losing the popular vote by 4-5% however. Trump has zero appeal outside of the 60M people already voting Republican in the last 3 elections.
She needs nothing of the sort. Hillary needs to turn out the Obama 2012 coalition, and he was hardly rocking it with the older white working class. If she does that there aren't enough Goopers to make up the 5-6M vote difference that Trump needs to win. Yes, you can win an election even by losing the popular vote although its a rare occurrence. I doubt you can win the election when losing the popular vote by 4-5% however. Trump has zero appeal outside of the 60M people already voting Republican in the last 3 elections.
Hillary also has to avoid alienating the base. Shrill Hill may cause the unconverted to stay away, too.
Then again, WilliLeaks may prove interesting.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIII: Clinton destrueretur est. Trump est destruetur. Vox Pop
If anything has been laid to rest the last few months it's the "shrill Hill" tag. She's just not like that anymore. She has learned how to play to large crowds. If that's the best the GOP can come up with, they are in for a world of hurt.
If anything has been laid to rest the last few months it's the "shrill Hill" tag. She's just not like that anymore. She has learned how to play to large crowds. If that's the best the GOP can come up with, they are in for a world of hurt.
Handyman
Hug someone you care about...
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIII: Clinton destrueretur est. Trump est destruetur. Vox Pop
Yeah barring some major October Surprise all this doomsday soothsaying isnt going to happen. Unless Trump wins all White Males (and I mean all of them) he is going to lose. He is going to lose every minority and women by a wide margin. He will end up with Romney numbers...
The Liberals arent staying home and the Bernie Bros aint going Drumpf in the end no matter what they say now. Dont fall for the media BS.
Yeah barring some major October Surprise all this doomsday soothsaying isnt going to happen. Unless Trump wins all White Males (and I mean all of them) he is going to lose. He is going to lose every minority and women by a wide margin. He will end up with Romney numbers...
The Liberals arent staying home and the Bernie Bros aint going Drumpf in the end no matter what they say now. Dont fall for the media BS.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIII: Clinton destrueretur est. Trump est destruetur. Vox Pop
Particularly when the electoral college currently favors Democrats.
dxmn is right on the math, though. If Trump pulls NCEW from Hillary she needs to compensate for them somewhere. Her margins are high already with minorities, therefore the logical place is with CEW.
Two problems with his thesis, though. (1) NCEWM may be flocking to Trump, but all women, including NCEWW, are repelled by him. For every Cletus in a wife beater Trump picks up, the beaten wife likely goes Democratic. (2) Hispanics are both growing and likely to vote more Democratic this time. Trump's cartoonish racism is threatening to make brown the new black. And at that point, as GOP operatives have admitted, there just aren't enough angry uneducated white men who didn't vote GOP before left to compensate.
Particularly when the electoral college currently favors Democrats.
dxmn is right on the math, though. If Trump pulls NCEW from Hillary she needs to compensate for them somewhere. Her margins are high already with minorities, therefore the logical place is with CEW.
Two problems with his thesis, though. (1) NCEWM may be flocking to Trump, but all women, including NCEWW, are repelled by him. For every Cletus in a wife beater Trump picks up, the beaten wife likely goes Democratic. (2) Hispanics are both growing and likely to vote more Democratic this time. Trump's cartoonish racism is threatening to make brown the new black. And at that point, as GOP operatives have admitted, there just aren't enough angry uneducated white men who didn't vote GOP before left to compensate.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIII: Clinton destrueretur est. Trump est destruetur. Vox Pop
Hopefully the question is not whether but how much. Right now the Senate looks like between 4-7 pickups depending on how badly the GOP disintegrates. The at-risk GOP senators are running around with their hair on fire, faking being pro-LGBT today and then mouthing GOP platitudes tomorrow. They don't know what to do. Nobody's ever written a handbook on how to win when the top of your ticket is a stinkbomb. Or they have and it's two words long: "You don't."
In my dreams I fantasize about gaining the House back, and also some state legislatures. It's never too soon to ramp up for 2020 and all those district redraws. And all those lawsuits. That terminate in a Court which by then could be 6-3 liberal.
Hopefully the question is not whether but how much. Right now the Senate looks like between 4-7 pickups depending on how badly the GOP disintegrates. The at-risk GOP senators are running around with their hair on fire, faking being pro-LGBT today and then mouthing GOP platitudes tomorrow. They don't know what to do. Nobody's ever written a handbook on how to win when the top of your ticket is a stinkbomb. Or they have and it's two words long: "You don't."
In my dreams I fantasize about gaining the House back, and also some state legislatures. It's never too soon to ramp up for 2020 and all those district redraws. And all those lawsuits. That terminate in a Court which by then could be 6-3 liberal.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIII: Clinton destrueretur est. Trump est destruetur. Vox Pop
The really weird thing is she's been great since October. The Benghazi hearings may have been the inflection point. It's like she went into them with all the old flaws and she had her funeral pyre dragon moment and emerged as something else.
I don't quite believe it myself, but so far she's keeping her sh-t together and she is lethal against Trump. Obama uses the slow poison that works into his adversaries' joints and causes them to keel over after a few months. With Hillary the vorpal blade goes snicker-snack like Ghost Ship.
The really weird thing is she's been great since October. The Benghazi hearings may have been the inflection point. It's like she went into them with all the old flaws and she had her funeral pyre dragon moment and emerged as something else.
I don't quite believe it myself, but so far she's keeping her sh-t together and she is lethal against Trump. Obama uses the slow poison that works into his adversaries' joints and causes them to keel over after a few months. With Hillary the vorpal blade goes snicker-snack like Ghost Ship.
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ScoobyDoo
NPC
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIII: Clinton destrueretur est. Trump est destruetur. Vox Pop
There is no doubt she was at her best during the Benghazi hearing. The GOP had her all lined up and we're going to bury her and she systematically throughout the day destroyed them one by one.
I look forward to her destroying Trump. I just wish there wasn't so much widespread hatred of her cause I think that's going to cost her the ability to do things and she will be hamstrung much like Obama.
There is no doubt she was at her best during the Benghazi hearing. The GOP had her all lined up and we're going to bury her and she systematically throughout the day destroyed them one by one.
I look forward to her destroying Trump. I just wish there wasn't so much widespread hatred of her cause I think that's going to cost her the ability to do things and she will be hamstrung much like Obama.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIII: Clinton destrueretur est. Trump est destruetur. Vox Pop
I think the hatred is dissipating already, except (obviously) for the Dead Enders who hate anything with a "(D)" on it. I move freely in circles where Bernie is seen as too moderate. Those folks have been impressed and are starting to think that while we won't get movement everywhere we want, on those issues where she agrees with us we might see dramatic progress.
It is good to see a Democrat who is not f-cking around. Hillary won't waste her first two years like Obama did trying to play nice with the sociopaths across the aisle. She'll use her leverage and before, as is inevitable, she is dragged back into the post-midterm* mire, she may do some very big things on gender, race and voting rights.
* Here's the thing about the Midterm Curse. Republicans always dominate the midterm electorate, but if Hillary really starts pulling women from every demographic category, that may not be true in 2018. Women turn out to vote. If Hillary marks the point where formerly Republican women finally break with their abusers and cross the aisle, the difference between the general and midterm electorates may start to shrink. That would be devastating for the GOP.
I think the hatred is dissipating already, except (obviously) for the Dead Enders who hate anything with a "(D)" on it. I move freely in circles where Bernie is seen as too moderate. Those folks have been impressed and are starting to think that while we won't get movement everywhere we want, on those issues where she agrees with us we might see dramatic progress.
It is good to see a Democrat who is not f-cking around. Hillary won't waste her first two years like Obama did trying to play nice with the sociopaths across the aisle. She'll use her leverage and before, as is inevitable, she is dragged back into the post-midterm* mire, she may do some very big things on gender, race and voting rights.
* Here's the thing about the Midterm Curse. Republicans always dominate the midterm electorate, but if Hillary really starts pulling women from every demographic category, that may not be true in 2018. Women turn out to vote. If Hillary marks the point where formerly Republican women finally break with their abusers and cross the aisle, the difference between the general and midterm electorates may start to shrink. That would be devastating for the GOP.
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