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Campaign 2016 Part XIII: Clinton destrueretur est. Trump est destruetur. Vox Populi!

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Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIII: Clinton destrueretur est. Trump est destruetur. Vox Pop

Kepler said:
That's his plan, but he's in a bind. The lower he goes to scoop NCEW, the more he drives away every other category.
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Will the black vote turn out as high as that baseline says? 66%? I'll take the under. I don't see that level of turnout by that demographic in this election even if the wife of the first black President is on the ballot.

And I do believe the NCEW will be closer to 60-63%.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIII: Clinton destrueretur est. Trump est destruetur. Vox Pop

Clearly the Hillary campaign is a lot more on the ball than the 2008 crew. I assume that includes coaching her during her campaign appearances as well.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIII: Clinton destrueretur est. Trump est destruetur. Vox Pop

The Sicatoka said:
Will the black vote turn out as high as that baseline says? 66%? I'll take the under. I don't see that level of turnout by that demographic in this election even if the wife of the first black President is on the ballot.

And I do believe the NCEW will be closer to 60-63%.
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I assume black turn out will be an average of 2000 and 2012, whatever that is. Favorite son is off the board, but it's a cliche that people who vote twice tend to keep on voting for life.

There's a hidden problem with NCEW. They're dying. Literally. That will offset some of Trump's gain.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIII: Clinton destrueretur est. Trump est destruetur. Vox Pop

Rover said:
Clearly the Hillary campaign is a lot more on the ball than the 2008 crew. I assume that includes coaching her during her campaign appearances as well.
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Yes. 2008 was humbling, and she needed humbling.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIII: Clinton destrueretur est. Trump est destruetur. Vox Pop

Kepler said:
I assume black turn out will be an average of 2000 and 2012, whatever that is. Favorite son is off the board, but it's a cliche that people who vote twice tend to keep on voting for life.

There's a hidden problem with NCEW. They're dying. Literally. That will offset some of Trump's gain.
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Hispanic turn out will make up the difference. Trump has declared open season on Hispanics. Any poll you see where he's even pulling the same % as Mittens and you can use it to wipe your rear end. He's going to get creamed with them and Asians as well who are drifting more towards the Dems due to Trump's white privilege campaign.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIII: Clinton destrueretur est. Trump est destruetur. Vox Pop

Rover said:
Hispanic turn out will make up the difference. Trump has declared open season on Hispanics. Any poll you see where he's even pulling the same % as Mittens and you can use it to wipe your rear end. He's going to get creamed with them and Asians as well who are drifting more towards the Dems due to Trump's white privilege campaign.
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I think we have an opportunity for Hispanics to swamp the difference. There is an enormous Hispanic underclass in the US -- we probably underestimate its size. They will be citizens someday -- they already work harder than everybody else (studying doesn't count, Asians...). Hispanics are growing fast enough that they will eventually bifurcate between the parties the same way whites do: Democratic 'til you're rich, then Republican to hoard your sh-t unless you go to grad school in which case Democratic unless you're voting Green or some such nonsense. For that matter, as I've said before, in a few decades Hispanics will just be white, following the Irish and Italians and Jews into the club.

But in the short term before that happens the Republicans have blown it with Hispanics, and we probably have a good 3-5 presidential cycles to make hay. So make it.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIII: Clinton destrueretur est. Trump est destruetur. Vox Pop

Kepler said:
I think we have an opportunity for Hispanics to swamp the difference. There is an enormous Hispanic underclass in the US -- we probably underestimate its size. They will be citizens someday -- they already work harder than everybody else (studying doesn't count, Asians...). Hispanics are growing fast enough that they will eventually bifurcate between the parties the same way whites do: Democratic 'til you're rich, then Republican to hoard your sh-t unless you go to grad school in which case Democratic unless you're voting Green or some such nonsense. For that matter, as I've said before, in a few decades Hispanics will just be white, following the Irish and Italians and Jews into the club.

But in the short term before that happens the Republicans have blown it with Hispanics, and we probably have a good 3-5 presidential cycles to make hay. So make it.
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FWIW, that breakdown between the parties already exists in Puerto Rico. On a local scale, at least.

But I wonder if this Trump vs. Hispanics is going to be a long term break toward D as did the post war + Civil rights period did for African Americans. Pre-WWII, they were as even between R and D as anyone was. But since then, it's been a clear break toward Democrats. Lots of NPR articles have pointed out this possibility- including a big upswing in new voters.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIII: Clinton destrueretur est. Trump est destruetur. Vox Pop

My incompetent great uncle Karl correctly made a play for Hispanics in 2004 thinking that if you could simply reduce the immigrant bashing while offering up a path to citizenship you'd at least hold your own with them. In that election GWB hit a nearly unprecedented in recent times 40% of their vote. Any savvy strategist can see the writing on the wall and the trick is to start the pivot before attitudes harden towards your party. The problem as we all now know is that the GOP is run by and populated with lunatics not interested in the long term health of their party.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIII: Clinton destrueretur est. Trump est destruetur. Vox Pop

FadeToBlack&Gold said:
Only among card-carrying Greens/CPUSA types
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There's a helluva lot of space in that slash. :)

And I assure you, there are boring old registered Democrats who feel Bernie is too moderate but who also think the RCP is completely ridiculous on par with Scientology and the SWP, though their heart is in the right place, have been listening a little too literally to Tom Morello.
 
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Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIII: Clinton destrueretur est. Trump est destruetur. Vox Pop

Kepler said:
There's a helluva lot of space in that slash. :)

And I assure you, there are boring old registered Democrats who feel Bernie is too moderate but who also think the RCP is completely ridiculous on par with Scientology and the SWP, though their heart is in the right place, have been listening a little too literally to Tom Morello.
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How do they feel about the Worker's Party of Judea?
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIII: Clinton destrueretur est. Trump est destruetur. Vox Pop

Fred Upton, who reps SW Michigan plans on endorsing no one this fall. Said the "train is off the track"
 
Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIII: Clinton destrueretur est. Trump est destruetur. Vox Pop

In continuing the great trump nicknames from Gawker:

Actually pretty remarkable for an animatronic Cheez-it.
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