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Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.
- Thread starter joecct
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Foxton
Banned
Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.
Uncle Sam hates Chump
https://youtu.be/EJqm4l4pT_Q
Of course we've changed from the idolized version of whatever slice of americana he grew up with that never really existed for anyone else.
Uncle Sam hates Chump
https://youtu.be/EJqm4l4pT_Q
Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.
Yeah, that would be interesting. It would surely lock in Hillary for a landslide, right? Not that she would have lost in any case...
Yeah, that would be interesting. It would surely lock in Hillary for a landslide, right? Not that she would have lost in any case...
JF_Gophers
2147483647
As long as the rest of us don't have to pay for your kids!
Once I have kids I'll be on board tho.
Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.
This article makes a fatal flaw that is a hallmark of Beltway punditry when it comes to Trump. The notion that he's appealing to 30% of the GOP electorate implies that 70% of that same electorate disagrees with him. That's BS. Trump + Carson + Cruz, three people with very little daylight in their policy positions have up to 60% of the vote locked up. Add in fellow nutters Huckleberry, Santorum and Fiorina and its closer to 65-70%. Rubio-Jebbers!-Christie-Kasich make up only 1/3rd of the polling. IF Trump fades, I seriously doubt his support is going to people he's been at war with. Most likely it goes to Cruz, who has the exact same policies as Trump. Same thing that's happened with Carson's supporters.
This article makes a fatal flaw that is a hallmark of Beltway punditry when it comes to Trump. The notion that he's appealing to 30% of the GOP electorate implies that 70% of that same electorate disagrees with him. That's BS. Trump + Carson + Cruz, three people with very little daylight in their policy positions have up to 60% of the vote locked up. Add in fellow nutters Huckleberry, Santorum and Fiorina and its closer to 65-70%. Rubio-Jebbers!-Christie-Kasich make up only 1/3rd of the polling. IF Trump fades, I seriously doubt his support is going to people he's been at war with. Most likely it goes to Cruz, who has the exact same policies as Trump. Same thing that's happened with Carson's supporters.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.
Not really. The problem is Obama almost ran the battleground states in 2012.
If Trump ran Indy I suspect he would get around 15% of the total electorate, virtually all from the right. The only question would be how much of that would be new voters and how much just robbed from the Republican? Let's say 9% was robbed from the GOP, 5% new voters, and 1% robbed from very confused Democrats.
Chopping a net 8% off the GOP 2012 result would turn the following states blue: NC (15), NE-2 (1), GA (16). Basically, 2008, with GA swapping in for the inexplicable IN. 360ish-170ish is solid, but to get Hillary to 400 Trump would probably need to steal a net 12% or so from the Republican total. That would put AZ (11), MO (10), IN (11) and SC (11) in play, and I think we can all agree that if SC goes blue that's a landslide.
Not really. The problem is Obama almost ran the battleground states in 2012.
If Trump ran Indy I suspect he would get around 15% of the total electorate, virtually all from the right. The only question would be how much of that would be new voters and how much just robbed from the Republican? Let's say 9% was robbed from the GOP, 5% new voters, and 1% robbed from very confused Democrats.
Chopping a net 8% off the GOP 2012 result would turn the following states blue: NC (15), NE-2 (1), GA (16). Basically, 2008, with GA swapping in for the inexplicable IN. 360ish-170ish is solid, but to get Hillary to 400 Trump would probably need to steal a net 12% or so from the Republican total. That would put AZ (11), MO (10), IN (11) and SC (11) in play, and I think we can all agree that if SC goes blue that's a landslide.
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Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.
He'd steal that from Rubio I think but not from Ted Cruz. There's not a lot of daylight between Cruz and Trump so no need for Republican voters to abandon the party unless they just really don't like a guy with a Hispanic last name representing them. Trump would hammer Rubio on his previous support for immigration reform. Not sure what he'd go after Cruz on from the right as the dude's pretty far out there.
Not really. The problem is Obama almost ran the battleground states in 2012.
If Trump ran Indy I suspect he would get around 15% of the total electorate, virtually all of from the right. The only question would be how much of that would be new voters and how much just robbed from the Republican? Let's say 9% was robbed from the GOP, 5% new voters, and 1% robbed from very confused Democrats.
Chopping a net 8% off the GOP 2012 result would turn the following states blue: NC (15), NE-2 (1), GA (16). Basically, 2008, with GA swapping in for the inexplicable IN. 360ish-170ish is solid, but to get Hillary to 400 Trump would probably need to steal a net 12% or so from the Republican total. That would put AZ (11), MO(10), IN (11) and SC (11) in play, and I think we can all agree that if SC goes blue that's a landslide.
He'd steal that from Rubio I think but not from Ted Cruz. There's not a lot of daylight between Cruz and Trump so no need for Republican voters to abandon the party unless they just really don't like a guy with a Hispanic last name representing them. Trump would hammer Rubio on his previous support for immigration reform. Not sure what he'd go after Cruz on from the right as the dude's pretty far out there.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.
I hope you realize that the hallmark of Beltway punditry these days is dimissing Beltway punditry.
I hope you realize that the hallmark of Beltway punditry these days is dimissing Beltway punditry.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.
The question is whether Cruz could crack Trump's cult of personality and drink his milkshake. It's a tricky game, since on the one hand he has to somehow kill the cult leader but on the other hand not alienate the precious little snowflake egos of the Trump supporters, who all believe the universe is a vast conspiracy designed to oppress them specifically. Cruz can't badmouth Trump but he needs to steal his voters. Since we're predicating the question on Trump running as an Indy and not taking a payment under the table to drop out and endorse Cruz, I don't see any reason for his fleas to jump to Tailgunner Ted.
The question is whether Cruz could crack Trump's cult of personality and drink his milkshake. It's a tricky game, since on the one hand he has to somehow kill the cult leader but on the other hand not alienate the precious little snowflake egos of the Trump supporters, who all believe the universe is a vast conspiracy designed to oppress them specifically. Cruz can't badmouth Trump but he needs to steal his voters. Since we're predicating the question on Trump running as an Indy and not taking a payment under the table to drop out and endorse Cruz, I don't see any reason for his fleas to jump to Tailgunner Ted.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.
Calgary Ted need not engage in combat with Trump yet. His main rival, and the guy he needs to boot from the race, is Ben Carson. Those are his voters, and if Carson is still drawing in double digits that lets an Establishment stiff potentially pass Cruz by for the #2 spot in Trump's wake. Iowa's a great example. If Trump wins but Cruz finishes a strong second, Cruz lives to fight another day when the contest goes down South. If Trump wins but Carson pulls a solid 25-20% which allows Rubio to sneak into 2nd place, that's a BIG F'in problem. The lamestream media fawning would be off the charts, and Rubio (also from the South) gets a lot of momentum going into both South Carolina and the SEC Primary.
Beyond that though, Cruz is correctly seeing this beyond just next year's race. Say Trump doesn't fade. Say he wins Iowa, wins NH, wins SC. Then the SEC primary rolls around and he holds his own while Cruz takes TX and its border states. By the time the contest switches to the Northeast all Establishment candidates except for maybe Rubio are out, and Trump will be strong in NY-NJ-PA-CT since he's from the region and his rivals are from the deep South. In that scenario, Cruz sticks around and finishes as runner up. He's like 44 years old, and unlike Rubio he hasn't given up his Senate seat. Trump gets crushed in the general election. Cruz wins re-election to the Senate. Gee whiz, who's next in line for the nomination? The guy who finished 2nd last time, is from the largest GOP state out there, and who still represents at age 48 generational change from the incumbent.
Either Cruz gets the nomination this time, and right now its either him or Trump who wins, or he's the leading candidate in 2020. He's set himself up well.
Calgary Ted need not engage in combat with Trump yet. His main rival, and the guy he needs to boot from the race, is Ben Carson. Those are his voters, and if Carson is still drawing in double digits that lets an Establishment stiff potentially pass Cruz by for the #2 spot in Trump's wake. Iowa's a great example. If Trump wins but Cruz finishes a strong second, Cruz lives to fight another day when the contest goes down South. If Trump wins but Carson pulls a solid 25-20% which allows Rubio to sneak into 2nd place, that's a BIG F'in problem. The lamestream media fawning would be off the charts, and Rubio (also from the South) gets a lot of momentum going into both South Carolina and the SEC Primary.
Beyond that though, Cruz is correctly seeing this beyond just next year's race. Say Trump doesn't fade. Say he wins Iowa, wins NH, wins SC. Then the SEC primary rolls around and he holds his own while Cruz takes TX and its border states. By the time the contest switches to the Northeast all Establishment candidates except for maybe Rubio are out, and Trump will be strong in NY-NJ-PA-CT since he's from the region and his rivals are from the deep South. In that scenario, Cruz sticks around and finishes as runner up. He's like 44 years old, and unlike Rubio he hasn't given up his Senate seat. Trump gets crushed in the general election. Cruz wins re-election to the Senate. Gee whiz, who's next in line for the nomination? The guy who finished 2nd last time, is from the largest GOP state out there, and who still represents at age 48 generational change from the incumbent.
Either Cruz gets the nomination this time, and right now its either him or Trump who wins, or he's the leading candidate in 2020. He's set himself up well.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.
The problem there is Cruz is Trump's double on the issues, so a Goldwateresque implosion would cast Cruz' electability into doubt not just in the nation but in the party. Plus Cruz can count and he knows with every year his brand of wingnuttery is shared by a rapidly evaporating backwater of the electorate.
Not to mention there's the End of Days coming, so if Ted wants to be prez he has to get to it before being hoist Lorax-like into fundy puppy heaven.
The problem there is Cruz is Trump's double on the issues, so a Goldwateresque implosion would cast Cruz' electability into doubt not just in the nation but in the party. Plus Cruz can count and he knows with every year his brand of wingnuttery is shared by a rapidly evaporating backwater of the electorate.
Not to mention there's the End of Days coming, so if Ted wants to be prez he has to get to it before being hoist Lorax-like into fundy puppy heaven.
Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.
He can (and will) make the case that it was the messenger that was the problem, not the message. That's what the base will want to hear.
He can (and will) make the case that it was the messenger that was the problem, not the message. That's what the base will want to hear.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.
It comes down to whether Cruz is a high class con man or a tin pot dictator. If the former, he needs to be denied the nomination in some agonizingly dramatic way, better yet because of dirty tricks from Reince and the RNC, so he can rake in tens if not hundreds of millions for the rest of his life by re-enacting The Passion of the Ted via every monetizable medium to milk the suckers dry. If the latter, he needs a Night of the Long Knives a few weeks before Cleveland, where he backstabs the rank and file blackshirts who got him close, and then seduces the Money Men by saying, "see -- I took care of the thugs and am ready to be a submissive corporate con." Plenty of time after the inaugural to get The Plan back on track.
It comes down to whether Cruz is a high class con man or a tin pot dictator. If the former, he needs to be denied the nomination in some agonizingly dramatic way, better yet because of dirty tricks from Reince and the RNC, so he can rake in tens if not hundreds of millions for the rest of his life by re-enacting The Passion of the Ted via every monetizable medium to milk the suckers dry. If the latter, he needs a Night of the Long Knives a few weeks before Cleveland, where he backstabs the rank and file blackshirts who got him close, and then seduces the Money Men by saying, "see -- I took care of the thugs and am ready to be a submissive corporate con." Plenty of time after the inaugural to get The Plan back on track.
Foxton
Banned
Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.
Cruz is as insane as he appears to be. His college roommate likes to still mock him.
http://www.alternet.org/election-20...former-college-roommate-who-turned-successful
Cruz is as insane as he appears to be. His college roommate likes to still mock him.
http://www.alternet.org/election-20...former-college-roommate-who-turned-successful
ScoobyDoo
NPC
Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.
Yet, Texas elected him their Senator. Never ceases to amaze.
Yet, Texas elected him their Senator. Never ceases to amaze.
FadeToBlack&Gold
Microlot Marxist
Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.
Remember when Freepers were wetting themselves over their new "See? We're not racist!" card?
C.J. Pearson says he is a Sanders supporter now, but "still holds conservative principles." Poor kid is quickly realizing that, like most of us, he has no idea who to believe. Nice job by CNN to go for the clickbait headline though.
Remember when Freepers were wetting themselves over their new "See? We're not racist!" card?
C.J. Pearson says he is a Sanders supporter now, but "still holds conservative principles." Poor kid is quickly realizing that, like most of us, he has no idea who to believe. Nice job by CNN to go for the clickbait headline though.
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