Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.

All BS aside, its going to take a lot of heavy lifting for the GOP to win the WH given the demographics of the country and the electoral map. The RNC has to stop these behind the scenes shenanigans to throw the nomination to an Establishment stiff. Either the primaries count or they don't. They don't count only if you get the person you want.

This came on the morning drive.

The Republican Party requires candidates to gain a majority of delegates in eight States and/or territories. If a candidate doesn’t get the majority of delegates in at least eight, that candidate is disqualified.

...

The rule is known as Rule 40, and some say that it may not be in effect by the time the primaries begin, but some candidates are including it in their campaign strategies.

So it is actually statistically possible for nobody to qualify under RNC rules to be their nominee, which is funny, but not the point here. The point is at a brokered convention there may be VERY few options for the Republicans, and one option off the table completely is a white knight.

The RNC might still be able to wiggle around this, by for example decommitting delegates from candidates who have dropped out and either not counting them or rolling them to acceptable candidates. And of course if they are headed for Armageddon they have plenty of lawyers to change the rules and then gum up the appeals process until the election is long over. But it means that my favorite scenario, in which somebody like Paul Ryan plays the really long game and tearfully emerges at a bitterly divided GOP convention after the 54th vote and humbly accepts the nomination "for the good of (sniff) the country" cannot happen.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.

That rule interestingly screws the Establishment. If they all stay in, they all win their respective states (FL: Rubio or Bush, NJ: Christie, OH: Kasich) but nobody gets to 8. I can see Cruz winning Iowa possibly and definitely TX, OK, AK, MS on his way to 8. Trump should be strong in the Northeast and frankly in a lot of other places that don't have a home town favorite due to his celebrity. Rubio is leading nowhere. I doubt Kasich survives beyond the SEC primary, so when the Rust Belt comes up he'll be gone. Jebbers! is leading nowhere. Very interesting...

While Carson is insane, his is right though. You have to abide by the results, like it or not. I'd laugh my head off if the convention came down to Trump vs Cruz with Carson playing kingmaker.

 

[joecct]

That rule interestingly screws the Establishment. If they all stay in, they all win their respective states (FL: Rubio or Bush, NJ: Christie, OH: Kasich) but nobody gets to 8. I can see Cruz winning Iowa possibly and definitely TX, OK, AK, MS on his way to 8. Trump should be strong in the Northeast and frankly in a lot of other places that don't have a home town favorite due to his celebrity. Rubio is leading nowhere. I doubt Kasich survives beyond the SEC primary, so when the Rust Belt comes up he'll be gone. Jebbers! is leading nowhere. Very interesting...

While Carson is insane, his is right though. You have to abide by the results, like it or not. I'd laugh my head off if the convention came down to Trump vs Cruz with Carson playing kingmaker.

Read how Harding became the nominee. Therein lies the hope of Kasich.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.

Read how Harding became the nominee. Therein lies the hope of Kasich.

If Rule 40 is in effect, that can't happen anymore.

 

[LynahFan]

Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.

If Rule 40 is in effect, that can't happen anymore.

You guys keep typing "Rule 40" but I keep reading "Order 66."

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.

I'm curious if its feasible to nominate someone in July out of the blue for an election that takes place in November anymore. Yes, yes, I realize that was the way it used to work, but we haven't been in a situation where the winner wasn't known by the start of the convention since 1976, 40 years ago. A white knight who wasn't one of the top delegate winners during the primary process would have to: 1) Immediately win over the people who won more delegates initially including several who the party has zero leverage over (Trump, Carson). 2) Then win over the people who thought they'd be better suited as the white knight. 3) Then reassure the rank and file primary voters that you represent them. 4) Now you get to fund raising, putting your team in place as a mad scramble for campaign jobs ensues or outsourcing that to the inept RNC. 5) After all that start prepping for the debates coming up against an already well funded, well prepared Dem who's been campaigning for several months already.

I realize a potted plant can get 47% of the vote for either side (the "Kerry" rule ) but that doesn't get you elected. Don't believe me - ask President Romney.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.

I think you could do it if the presumptive nominee died. There would be an enormous wellspring of support and there would be no ill feelings from the supporters of the supplanted favorite. Well, until Infowars uncovered that the nominee was murdered by the lizard people.

I sometimes wonder what would happen if a major party nominee died a few weeks before the election. I'm not even sure if there are formal rules as to whether the running mate becomes the nominee. We have never delayed a presidential election, and hopefully never will, but that could do it.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.

An exact placing of Trump in context. I don't share the author's overwhelming confidence that the arc of the moral universe bends towards justice, and I'd point out that even his example of those who did not hold on for long should warn us of just how dangerous they can be in the short run, but I do share the confidence that the nation is an enormous boat that it would take tremendous forces to change so significantly.

Hopefully this will be a shameful episode in the history of only a party, rather than a nation.

 

[joecct]

I think you could do it if the presumptive nominee died. There would be an enormous wellspring of support and there would be no ill feelings from the supporters of the supplanted favorite. Well, until Infowars uncovered that the nominee was murdered by the lizard people.

I sometimes wonder what would happen if a major party nominee died a few weeks before the election. I'm not even sure if there are formal rules as to whether the running mate becomes the nominee. We have never delayed a presidential election, and hopefully never will, but that could do it.

If municipal elections are any guide, the dead guy wins in a landslide.

Actually the VP nominee becomes the candidate and if he/she wins, the Senate picks a new VP.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.

If municipal elections are any guide, the dead guy wins in a landslide.

Actually the VP nominee becomes the candidate and if he/she wins, the Senate picks a new VP.

That's somewhat orderly and makes sense.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.

Actually the VP nominee becomes the candidate and if he/she wins, the Senate picks a new VP.

I think you are confusing the 20th Amendment, which dictates what happens if a president-elect dies, with what I am considering which is a nominee dying a short time prior to the election.

In the latter case the party would have to decide, since they control their nomination (and since political parties and their rules are never mentioned in the Constitution). This article from 2008 states the RNC and DNC have rules in place:

Each party has its own protocol for this scenario, but in neither case does the running mate automatically take over the ticket. If John McCain were to die before the election, the rules of the Republican Party authorize the Republican National Committee to fill the vacancy, either by reconvening a national convention or by having RNC state representatives vote. The new nominee must receive a majority vote to officially become the party candidate. If Barack Obama were to die before the election, the Democratic Party's charter and bylaws state that responsibility for filling that vacancy would fall to the Democratic National Committee, but the rules do not specify how exactly the DNC would go about doing that. (Congress could also pass a special statute and push back Election Day, giving the dead candidate's party time to regroup.)

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.

Right on cue.

Ted Cruz’s campaign, ostensibly speaking, has a major leg up on most of the other candidates: An in-house team of data scientists, funded by a billionaire supporter, analyzing the data of tens of millions of unwitting American Facebook users. And yet, people still find him deeply unlikeable.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.

You'd have to have some provision regarding the printing of ballots, particularly the absentee ones that get mailed overseas to military personnel. How would a deceased person's name being already on a ballot be handled? I don't know the answer to that.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.

You'd have to have some provision regarding the printing of ballots, particularly the absentee ones that get mailed overseas to military personnel. How would a deceased person's name being already on a ballot be handled? I don't know the answer to that.

We know how it works in Congress -- they go right ahead with the election then figure it out afterwards.

There don't seem to be examples of people who have died, been on the ballot themselves, and lost. In other words: Dead people appear to be batting 1.000 in their Congressional races. Nonetheless, we do not recommend it as a campaign strategy.

 

[St. Clown]

Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.

We know how it works in Congress -- they go right ahead with the election then figure it out afterwards.

I really don't like that policy. It should be such that they run a special election for the seat if the death occurs within X days of the standard election day. It impacted Missouri, where they elected Henry(?) McCaskill to the Senate, but he died a few weeks before the election and someone (governor?) appointed his wife to the seat. She wasn't elected and shouldn't have been simply given a six-year term.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.

I like the idea of the VP becomes President. Technically you're voting for both the President and the Vice President, so people can't say the VP isn't legitimately chosen by the people. Come inauguration day you'd swear in the VP first, then as you would not be able to swear in the President elect, you'd immediately swear in the now VP as President. Then the Senate chooses a new VP. No changes in ballots. No delaying the election. Its no different than if someone won on Election Day, then died 24 hours later. You wouldn't hold a new election. You'd swear in the Vice President as President.

 

[St. Clown]

Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.

I like the idea of the VP becomes President. Technically you're voting for both the President and the Vice President, so people can't say the VP isn't legitimately chosen by the people. Come inauguration day you'd swear in the VP first, then as you would not be able to swear in the President elect, you'd immediately swear in the now VP as President. Then the Senate chooses a new VP. No changes in ballots. No delaying the election. Its no different than if someone won on Election Day, then died 24 hours later. You wouldn't hold a new election. You'd swear in the Vice President as President.

Sure, but presidential and senatorial elections are two different things. You're not voting for a vice-senator on the ticket, which is the situation about which I was commenting.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.

I really don't like that policy. It should be such that they run a special election for the seat if the death occurs within X days of the standard election day. It impacted Missouri, where they elected Henry(?) McCaskill to the Senate, but he died a few weeks before the election and someone (governor?) appointed his wife to the seat. She wasn't elected and shouldn't have been simply given a six-year term.

I think the way it is now it's up to the state, and sometimes the state says "too expensive."

The one you're thinking about is Mel Carnahan, who was MO-Gov and was running for Senate when he died October 16, 2000. The governor (newly appointed from Lt Gov since Carnahan himself had been Gov) announced he would appoint Jean Carnahan, the widow, if Carnahan won the election, which he did (against incumbent Senator and all-around frumious toad John Ashcroft). There was a special election held in 2002 and she lost.

That seems in keeping with the spirit of the tradition that when a Senator dies in office the surviving spouse is appointed to fill the role until a special election.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.

I like the idea of the VP becomes President. Technically you're voting for both the President and the Vice President, so people can't say the VP isn't legitimately chosen by the people. Come inauguration day you'd swear in the VP first, then as you would not be able to swear in the President elect, you'd immediately swear in the now VP as President. Then the Senate chooses a new VP. No changes in ballots. No delaying the election. Its no different than if someone won on Election Day, then died 24 hours later. You wouldn't hold a new election. You'd swear in the Vice President as President.

I do not like the Senate choosing the VP, since that could result in a VP from the opposing party. While fun, that would be very unhealthy and essentially deprive the country of the Vice President as a useful office for that term (no jokes!).

I think the best way to handle it would be for the VP (now presidential candidate) to announce their choice for VP and for the Senate to promise to appoint that person (to fulfill the correct Constitutional mechanism) if that ticket won. That way we would know who we were voting for when we stepped into the booth.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Campaign 2016 - I'm Biden my time till I doctor the hearing.

Here's the blow by blow on Cruz vs. Trump.

http://www.nytimes.com/politics/fir...-over-private-comments-that-went-public/?_r=0

Seriously NYT? This reads like a Gawker article. That's not a good thing.