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Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good

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Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good

Handyman said:
If Trump gets these people to vote for him (cause he represents them because all he does is provoke fights like a troll) then the GOP will lose pretty much all the battleground states.
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So....it'll be just like 2012? :confused:

The sad reality is, Trump/Walker/Bush/Carson/etc will get their 46-47% of the vote that the GOP usually gets in Presidential elections. The happy reality is that this upcoming election, just like the previous ones, is not just a "base turnout" election, its a Democratic base turnout election. If the Dem base turns out, Reagan would have trouble beating Hillary in 2016. If they don't then you open up the door for that 47% of the vote to make up a higher % if the Dem share goes down. All the analysis beyond that is fluff. It matters not that Bush is from a swing state and has lined up big donors, or Cruz wants to privatize Social Security, or Hillary may have deleted some of Bill's pornographic e-mails, or Trump wears a dead raccoon on his head. Either the Dem base turns out, or it doesn't. That's it.

Having said that, I wouldn't want to be in charge of dealing with the Trump issue at the RNC headquarters. He's like Ross Perot with an attitude. His attacks on Scott Walker were 100% correct. Wait until he gets a hold of Jebbers! in the debate about his "illegal immigrants come here out of love" or something like that which he said earlier. The fact that he's doing this to line his own pockets, instead of those of the Koch brothers or Sheldon Aldersen is also refreshing. Tough to buy a guy who's already a billionaire (part of Perot's appeal back in the day). The threat of the 3rd party run also freezes everybody in place because the dude's just nutty enough to do it on a whim.

What I'm curious about though is if he's set up a campaign apparatus in all primary states to GOTV. He certainly has the $$$, but not sure he has the expertise.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good

I don't like Trump, but goddammed if he has no fear of finally speaking up and stating the truth. Which is absolutely refreshing from the well rehearsed, well polished, politicians both sides have been trotting out for years. It's been fun these last few weeks watching Trump disrupt the political machine.

Why can't the Dems have someone who's just as fun but half as abrasive? Why isn't Joe Biden being trotted out?
 
Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good

aparch said:
I don't like Trump, but goddammed if he has no fear of finally speaking up and stating the truth. Which is absolutely refreshing from the well rehearsed, well polished, politicians both sides have been trotting out for years. It's been fun these last few weeks watching Trump disrupt the political machine.

Why can't the Dems have someone who's just as fun but half as abrasive? Why isn't Joe Biden being trotted out?
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Sanders is who you're referring to. Sanders isn't afraid to speak the truth.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good

Kepler said:
Good god, I had not seen that. Somebody needs to take these candidates aside and explain the difference between speaking for the people and speaking for the mob.
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But what if the mob and the people are one and the same? :eek:

Huckleberry and crew (Jindal, etc) need to say outrageous things to rise up enough in the polls to be included in the debates. Problem is they're not going to be able to out-trump Trump. While I find his comments deplorable, name me one other candidate in the field who would have had the balls to go after McCain over his war record? Answer: Nobody. In this whole field, no one has Trump's media savvy and ability to dictate coverage or to frame issues. The McCain flap was supposed to be a candidacy ender if you listened to pundidiotry. Instead he's only gotten stronger. Why? Because if conservatives really held people to account for slandering war veterans, or slandering John McCain personally, can someone explain to me how George W Bush got elected twice? Only difference is Trump did it himself instead of relying on shady secret organizations.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good

538's view of a Trump 3rd party bid:

Trump received 20 percent of the vote in a hypothetical matchup against Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb Bush in a newly released ABC News/Washington Post poll. But, if Trump were to run as an independent, his support would likely fade.

Only Wallace’s bid in 1968 really upended the popular vote. Even Ralph Nader’s bid in 2000 barely moved the needle because a number of his voters would have backed George W. Bush if Nader weren’t in the race.

Trump, on the other hand, could make a difference even if he experienced an Anderson-like slide to only 5 percent of the vote. If 70 percent of Trump’s vote comes from the Republican candidate (as it does in the ABC News/Post survey), we can estimate that the Democratic nominee’s chance of winning1 would rise from 50 percent (FiveThirtyEight’s default in a non-incumbent election) to 63 percent.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good

5mn_Major said:
538's view of a Trump 3rd party bid:

Trump received 20 percent of the vote in a hypothetical matchup against Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb Bush in a newly released ABC News/Washington Post poll. But, if Trump were to run as an independent, his support would likely fade.

Only Wallace’s bid in 1968 really upended the popular vote. Even Ralph Nader’s bid in 2000 barely moved the needle because a number of his voters would have backed George W. Bush if Nader weren’t in the race.

Trump, on the other hand, could make a difference even if he experienced an Anderson-like slide to only 5 percent of the vote. If 70 percent of Trump’s vote comes from the Republican candidate (as it does in the ABC News/Post survey), we can estimate that the Democratic nominee’s chance of winning1 would rise from 50 percent (FiveThirtyEight’s default in a non-incumbent election) to 63 percent.
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I don't think Trump's effect would be his polling #'s which would go down. The problem is he'd be representing conservatism in a ridiculous light, but one that the GOP candidate would be forced to pander to.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good

Trump is calling Hillary a "criminal" this morning. I guess to Fox he just got a less less crazy. :)
 
Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good

Rover said:
I don't think Trump's effect would be his polling #'s which would go down. The problem is he'd be representing conservatism in a ridiculous light, but one that the GOP candidate would be forced to pander to.
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I agree with this. He would be impossible for conservative candidates to deal with. If you agree with him you look crazy, if you criticize or ignore him you enrage his supporters. He also comes along right at a moment where the country as a whole is seeming to be weighing their traditional assumptions about conservatism and finding themselves less drawn to the right (support for gay marriage, exhaustion with perpetual war, anger at Wall Street and elite finance, worry about the increasing paramilitary behavior of law enforcement).

Liberals made liberalism look ridiculous in the 70s and ushered in the last 40 years of predatory conservatism. Likewise, conservatives have been making conservatism look ridiculous ever since the Todd Akin types got in front of the mic. These were the people the RNC used to wink at on the side but keep as far away from the public as possible. Now they are running the circus. That type of "soft imagery" can throw a philosophy into disrepute for a generation. Trump is the embodiment of all that could be used to paint the right as laughable and dangerous.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good

Handyman said:
Say what you will, everything Trump said is true. Walker's record is an anchor...

Trump vs. Sanders...now that would be a fun election! The debates would be epic :eek:
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Walker's record was perfect in the GOP. He did everything the Koch's wanted him to, and more. Including bailing out his billionaire buddy who owns the Bucks. He had it all. All he had to do to get the nod was keep his mouth shut and not engage Trump especially. He failed. What you call a bad record, they call GOP economics.

As for getting elected. In the GOP it's all about getting the nomination and letting Hillary destroy herself just like she did last time. I place the odds on that at 65%.

Mr. Obama said. “We’ve had a sitting senator call John Kerry Pontius Pilate. We’ve had a sitting senator, who also happens to be running for president, suggest that I’m the leading state sponsor of terrorism. These are leaders in the Republican Party.”
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Who in the hell is running/leading the GOP? This is what happens when you elect leaders like Itch and Bone Man. You get psychotic people all over the place.
 
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Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good

Kepler said:
I assume it goes something along the lines of "Madam Mao is a maggot," but I'm not giving them the page hits to find out.
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Actually, no. The words in the link should give you enough of a hint, though.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good

ScoobyDoo said:
Walker's record was perfect in the GOP. He did everything the Koch's wanted him to, and more. Including bailing out his billionaire buddy who owns the Bucks. He had it all. All he had to do to get the nod was keep his mouth shut and not engage Trump especially. He failed. What you call a bad record, they call GOP economics.

As for getting elected. In the GOP it's all about getting the nomination and letting Hillary destroy herself just like she did last time. I place the odds on that at 65%.



Who in the hell is running/leading the GOP? This is what happens when you elect leaders like Itch and Bone Man. You get psychotic people all over the place.
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Actually, a lot of the GOP is starting to consider Itch to be a traitor.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good

I think of what you want in a nominee as a three part question:

1) Do you agree with them on the issues (for the most part)?
2) Can they clearly and concisely explain their position on those issues?
3) Can they deal with nonsensical attacks that have nothing to do with the issues?

So, as you can see from winning candides, yes yes and yes. But look at the losers...

Gore may have been where the country was on issues, but his explanations were poor and he wasn't good at fending off attacks.
Kerry was bad on the issues ("I would have invaded Iraq even without WMD's", "I think its Americans' right to drive big cars and SUV's"), bad on explaining them ("before I voted against it I was for it"), and horrific at fending off attacks. Hence, he's the only Democrat in the last 6 elections to lose the popular vote.

McCain bad on issues (pro-Iraq), bad on explaining issues ("we'll be greeted as liberators"), but the Dems really didn't need to attack him as that race was over by September.

So, for anybody thinking Walker, Sanders, Rubio, etc - these are the questions you need to answer. One would think Hillary and Jebbers! can handle attacks given their long careers and extensive media coverage. Unknown with the rest of them on either side.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good

We may be overthinking it. The more charismatic candidate has won 10 consecutive elections. Every since The Actor, it's been about... acting.
 
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Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good

Kepler said:
We may be overthinking it. The more charismatic candidate has won 10 conservative elections. Every since The Actor, it's been about... acting.
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What's going to happen next year? Everyone has about as much charisma as Wally from the Dilbert comic strip! Sorta like 1988 (I'm not sure Bush Sr was any more interesting than the Duke but winning big tends to change people's perception of you...).
 
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