Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools?

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Heck, the Hispanics might be enough to flip TX blue - that would be a laugh and a half over at the Fox News desk.

That would be the greatest night in television history. I would actually watch Fox if that happened.

 

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

I wasn't talking about Trump -- Trump isn't reflective of anybody's values but Trump's (Trump's sole value being Trump). I was talking about a True Believer like Cruz or Walker. The quintessence of Republican policy stripped of the avuncular camouflage of a Reagan or Dubya. Straight crazy, no chaser.

They wont win because they cant win the states that need to be flipped. Stop the Chicken Little Act. You act like the GOP has the numbers going in, they were 5 million votes behind in the last election and that was with a president whose party was split on him.

What states can any of the guys you named flip? Honest question. Go through their policies and their baggage and then see how it doesnt align itself with the purple states or any of the Obama Blue States. They will not have enough EV to take the White House. Why do you think 17 people are running because they all are equally terrible so they can all win the nomination. They will go by way of Mitt...something stupid they said will do them. (and they all say such stupid things)

The Dems have everyone on their side but rich white people. The GOP doesnt have the numbers unless they stop hating women, Blacks and Latinos.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

They wont win because they cant win the states that need to be flipped. Stop the Chicken Little Act. You act like the GOP has the numbers going in, they were 5 million votes behind in the last election and that was with a president whose party was split on him.

What states can any of the guys you named flip? Honest question. Go through their policies and their baggage and then see how it doesnt align itself with the purple states or any of the Obama Blue States. They will not have enough EV to take the White House. Why do you think 17 people are running because they all are equally terrible so they can all win the nomination. They will go by way of Mitt...something stupid they said will do them. (and they all say such stupid things)

The Dems have everyone on their side but rich white people. The GOP doesnt have the numbers unless they stop hating women, Blacks and Latinos.

I'm not trying to do a Chicken Little act (will the Scooby please stand up?), I'm saying that in this environment a doorknob with either letter after its name starts with nearly enough EV for election, and the Dems are much more vulnerable than they look -- in 2012 out of the closest 10 states Obama took 9 of them. That means a fairly slight perturbation (say, the 16,000th Clinton scandal actually has some legs) could swing an election.

Here are last time's top 10:

1. Florida: 0.6 percent (Obama 49.9, Romney 49.3.)

2. Ohio: 1.9 percent (Obama 50.1, Romney 48.2)

3. North Carolina: 2.2 percent (Romney 50.6, Obama 48.4)

4. Virginia: 3.0 percent (Obama 50.8, Romney 47.8)

5. Colorado: 4.7 percent (Obama 51.2, Romney 46.5)

6. Pennsylvania: 5.2 percent (Obama 52, Romney 46.8)

7. Iowa: 5.6 percent (Obama 52.1, Romney 46.5)

8. New Hampshire: 5.8 percent (Obama 52.2, Romney 46.4)

9. Nevada: 6.6 percent (Obama 52.3, Romney 45.7)

10. Wisconsin: 6.7 percent (Obama 52.8, Romney 46.1)

The Hillary Election is particularly volatile because her likelihood of a double fault is so much higher than her opponent's likelihood of generating a wave. You wanted to know how the 2016 Republican can flip key states? Just stand there and wait for the She Beast to implode.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

The Dems have everyone on their side but rich white people.

And poor white people. And Fundies. And those latter two groups are huge (although there's also a lot of overlap).

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

They wont win because they cant win the states that need to be flipped. Stop the Chicken Little Act. You act like the GOP has the numbers going in, they were 5 million votes behind in the last election and that was with a president whose party was split on him.

What states can any of the guys you named flip? Honest question. Go through their policies and their baggage and then see how it doesnt align itself with the purple states or any of the Obama Blue States. They will not have enough EV to take the White House. Why do you think 17 people are running because they all are equally terrible so they can all win the nomination. They will go by way of Mitt...something stupid they said will do them. (and they all say such stupid things)

The Dems have everyone on their side but rich white people. The GOP doesnt have the numbers unless they stop hating women, Blacks and Latinos.

Look at it this way. Obama won 69M and 66M votes in the last two elections. GOP candidates won around 60M both times. With population growth it'll probably take over 70M to win next time. That means the GOP candidate needs to find an extra 10M-12M votes, or hope 10M-12M exclusively Dem voters stay home.

This is not impossible (GWB increased his vote total this much from 2000 to 2004) but its asking a lot as the electorate looks a bit different now than it did 12 years ago.

 

[mookie1995]

Hillary and Bernie have been in the party for decades, but they're not establishment? Hillary's been at the forefront of the party ever since her husband took the party nomination in 92. Bernie's been in the party and in Washington for some three decades now. It's nothing but establishment for the D crowd.

Everyone wants congress replaced, but sends their own stooge back every 2 yrs.

Why are you looking for rational thought from irrational beings?

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Look at it this way. Obama won 69M and 66M votes in the last two elections. GOP candidates won around 60M both times. With population growth it'll probably take over 70M to win next time. That means the GOP candidate needs to find an extra 10M-12M votes, or hope 10M-12M exclusively Dem voters stay home.

This is not impossible (GWB increased his vote total this much from 2000 to 2004) but its asking a lot as the electorate looks a bit different now than it did 12 years ago.

It's not nearly as difficult as that analysis makes it seem. The Republicans need a pendulum swing relative to the Democrats of 3.8% to reach 50/50. How many times has the out party increased its percentage by that much since 1940?

1952 R 9.9%
1960 D 6.6
1968 R 4.7
1976 D 12.8
1988 D 5.1 (lost)
1996 R 3.6 (lost)
2000 R 7.1
2008 D 5.7

So this unassailable lead by the incumbent party has been blown 8 times in the last 16 elections. It can't happen... until it does.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Hillary and Bernie have been in the party for decades, but they're not establishment? Hillary's been at the forefront of the party ever since her husband took the party nomination in 92. Bernie's been in the party and in Washington for some three decades now. It's nothing but establishment for the D crowd.

Hillary is establishment, but if you think Bernie's establishment just based on tenure you don't understand how Congress works.

Ron Paul was in Congress for more than 30 years. Was he "establishment"?

 

[St. Clown]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Hillary is establishment, but if you think Bernie's establishment just based on tenure you don't understand how Congress works.

Ron Paul was in Congress for more than 30 years. Was he "establishment"?

I was actually hesitant to include Bernie in the establishment statement, but did so because of his tenure - it's not like they don't know him. However, if you consider him not to be establishment, it might explain why he's having so many more issues with protestors interrupting his events where as Hillary hasn't had nary a peep of protests at her events making the news.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

I was actually hesitant to include Bernie in the establishment statement, but did so because of his tenure - it's not like they don't know him. However, if you consider him not to be establishment, it might explain why he's having so many more issues with protestors interrupting his events where as Hillary hasn't had nary a peep of protests at her events making the news.

We have different meanings of the word establishment. You see it as being lock step with the party. I see it as being the same old thing over and over and over again.

 

[The Sicatoka]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

... (say, the 16,000th Clinton scandal actually has some legs) ...

I thought that was back in the 1990s. Or did I lose count.

 

[The Sicatoka]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

I don't understand:

- How Trump can survive what he said on CNN about Megyn Kelly*; I heard what he said, I know what he meant. I was listening to him to that point; he DQ'd himself right there.

- How folks can be ignoring Carly Fiorina; anyone that can go from an office admin to CEO of a Fortune 50 has my attention.


*Kelly led with her chin. I'm pretty sure she had to because her handlers (Fox News execs) wanted the ratings that would follow. If she wouldn't have would she still have her prime time show tonight? Instead, she has chatter for weeks because ... she's the story.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

I thought that was back in the 1990s. Or did I lose count.

I'm only counting the ones we know about.

In all honesty, I'd bet 20 of the 44 presidents probably could have been under indictment the day before they took office, but Hillary may be the first one with a 50/50 chance of actually doing it...

... or she could sail through 8 years with nothing sticking because the GOP has just flat out lied so much over the years than nobody believes a word they say anymore.

Either result would be entirely appropriate.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Kelly led with her chin.

I disagree. The question about Trump's misogyny was entirely warranted. He's proven that himself by his reaction. I don't believe Kelly was setting herself up deliberately to be attacked. For one thing, that's giving her a little too much credit (Sorry, Megyn. You and me behind the hot water pipes tonight, but I'm not going to argue you aren't the sharpest eyebrow pencil in the dresser.), for another they had already "gotten" Trump with the no third party trap, and most importantly Fox is a wholly owned subsidiary of the Republican party, and the last thing they want is for American women to be reminded YET AGAIN of how the GOP treats women like garbage.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

I disagree. The question about Trump's misogyny was entirely warranted. He's proven that himself by his reaction. I don't believe Kelly was setting herself up deliberately to be attacked. For one thing, that's giving her a little too much credit (Sorry, Megyn. You and me behind the hot water pipes tonight, but I'm not going to argue you aren't the sharpest eyebrow pencil in the dresser.), for another they had already "gotten" Trump with the no third party trap, and most importantly Fox is a wholly owned subsidiary of the Republican party, and the last thing they want is for American women to be reminded by how the GOP treats women like garbage.

It would have been fine if it hadn't been the first question posed to him. The front runner should have at least been given the courtesy of answering a policy question first. Instead Fox decided to make the debate about them.

 

[unofan]

- How folks can be ignoring Carly Fiorina; anyone that can go from an office admin to CEO of a Fortune 50 has my attention.

Because she almost ran that same company into the ground and got ousted while receiving a golden parachute that the 30,000 workers she laid off could only dream of?

 

[The Sicatoka]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

It would have been fine if it hadn't been the first question posed to him. The front runner should have at least been given the courtesy of answering a policy question first. Instead Fox decided to make the debate about them.

That's what I meant by "lead with the chin". How about policy, not personal.

 

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

It's not nearly as difficult as that analysis makes it seem. The Republicans need a pendulum swing relative to the Democrats of 3.8% to reach 50/50. How many times has the out party increased its percentage by that much since 1940?

1952 R 9.9%
1960 D 6.6
1968 R 4.7
1976 D 12.8
1988 D 5.1 (lost)
1996 R 3.6 (lost)
2000 R 7.1
2008 D 5.7

So this unassailable lead by the incumbent party has been blown 8 times in the last 16 elections. It can't happen... until it does.

Name your price...none of the Clown Show are going to get independents to flip sides at best they stay home. If it comes down to the bases I will take the Dems right now over the GOP.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Because she almost ran that same company into the ground and got ousted while receiving a golden parachute that the 30,000 workers she laid off could only dream of?

Actually that does kinda sound like an ideal Republican candidate.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Actually that does kinda sound like an ideal Republican candidate.

Sure, cause everyone who votes for them thinks every office admin can do the same thing.