Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools?

[Twitch Boy]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

I don't understand why they shut the speech down. It sounds like it would have been possible to allow the protesters to state their position, then let Bernie speak. I will bet Bernie could draw the link between the protest and his points and unite everybody against the real enemy.

I've read this through three times and I can't see why this couldn't have been mutually resolved to everyone's (event, Bernie, crowd, protesters) satisfaction.

Saw a comment on Reddit that addressed this: the protesters know Bernie won't do anything in response. It's the safest spot for them to spit out their entire message without things getting all jackboot-y.

They try this with Hillary, security hits the stage in about three seconds and we get Don't Tase Me Bro 2: Electric Boogaloo. Same for the GOP, except replace "Tase" with "AR-15."

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

So as this stuff keeps happening, week after week, and as Trump continues a huge lead, lemme pose a question.

What if he wins the nomination? I know, I know, he won't, but what if this advantage just plays out through the primaries, and he rolls up enough delegates and he is the nominee.

Do those dependable 45% no matter whatters show up on Election Day and pull the level for "R"? Or do we finally get a Reagan 84 landslide, with Hillary winning everywhere but Idaho, Wyoming, and Alabama?

Is Trump enough to break out 50/50 split, even temporarily?

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

You know. I was wondering the same thing. What if he does get it. It's terrifying.

 

[Handyman]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

So as this stuff keeps happening, week after week, and as Trump continues a huge lead, lemme pose a question.

What if he wins the nomination? I know, I know, he won't, but what if this advantage just plays out through the primaries, and he rolls up enough delegates and he is the nominee.

Do those dependable 45% no matter whatters show up on Election Day and pull the level for "R"? Or do we finally get a Reagan 84 landslide, with Hillary winning everywhere but Idaho, Wyoming, and Alabama?

Is Trump enough to break out 50/50 split, even temporarily?

IF it happens I am 75% certain he gets destroyed. Not Mondale bad but bad.

The other 25% scares the ever loving crap out of me.

 

[joecct]

IF it happens I am 75% certain he gets destroyed. Not Mondale bad but bad.

The other 25% scares the ever loving crap out of me.

If the 25% hits, it will be because of an electorate so fed up with the process that they'll go so far outside the box to change it.

But, fear not. Unless that same sentiment extends to the Congress, you have an effective brake that will trump any excesses from the Executive.

ADDENDUM: Will Bernie's speech at Liberty U. have the same effect on the campaign as JFK's speech to the Protestant ministers?

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

ADDENDUM: Will Bernie's speech at Liberty U. have the same effect on the campaign as JFK's speech to the Protestant ministers?

There are conservative core groups which Bernie could address and make an impact. I think he could get into a mutually valuable conversation with small business and maybe even gun sportsmen. He could certainly have a good dialog with the kind of Roman Catholics who appreciate Francis' message. But I don't think he will make any headway at Liberty. I am afraid he's going to run into IF Jesus THEN engage higher functions ELSE end of program.

 

[joecct]

There are conservative core groups which Bernie could address and make an impact. I think he could get into a mutually valuable conversation with small business and maybe even gun sportsmen. He could certainly have a good dialog with the kind of Roman Catholics who appreciate Franics' message. But I don't think he will make any headway at Liberty. I am afraid he's going to run into IF Jesus THEN engage higher functions ELSE end of program.

Kep

Having 2 Liberty U grads in the family I can tell you that they are not the bible thumping automatons you think they are. For sure, they all believe in God, but the ones I've met are independent thinkers.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Kep

Having 2 Liberty U grads in the family I can tell you that they are not the bible thumping automatons you think they are. For sure, they all believe in God, but the ones I've met are independent thinkers.

That's good to hear, particularly because they seem to be getting more and more influential. When Dubya was in power it seemed like half the (R) staffers were from either Liberty or BYU.

I actually meant less "thumper" than having belief as a gate keeping device for truth: we all have a set of minimum scope requirements where if there's no agreement there's just no way to communicate. In the case of Liberty I thought it was explicit that if you don't have a particular scriptural understanding of Christianity there's just no place to start. I'm glad to find I am wrong.

 

[walrus]

Trumps role will be Perot like, nothing more. If his mouth has gotten this much attention already, imagine another 8 to 10 months. I can see him in a 3rd party bid though

 

[Spartanforlife4]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

I do get a kick out of the recent Trump controversy.

Mexicans are rapists? Trump! Trump! Trump!
McCain a loser veteran? Trump! Trump! Trump!
Rosie O'Donnell a pig? Hahahahaha Trump! Trump! Trump!
Making fun of Megyn Kelly? How dare he! Rabble rabble rabble!

There was what, a three hour span between the Rosie O'Donnell and Kelly comments?

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

According to the Surveymonkey poll.

Ted Cruz gained 7 points.
Jeb Bush and Scott Walker lost 3 points.

This Republican race couldn't be going better.

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/NBC-SM Post Debate Poll 8 09 15.pdf

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Saw a comment on Reddit that addressed this: the protesters know Bernie won't do anything in response. It's the safest spot for them to spit out their entire message without things getting all jackboot-y.

They try this with Hillary, security hits the stage in about three seconds and we get Don't Tase Me Bro 2: Electric Boogaloo. Same for the GOP, except replace "Tase" with "AR-15."

Exactly. IF these people are so brave, go protest a GOP rally as well. I don't get going after Sanders nor POing his supporters who are most likely your biggest allies. This may be non-PC, but a lot of these particular protesters are idiots. Its more about drawing attention to themselves than advancing a cause.

Regarding Trump, this newfound sensitivity to women's issues amuses me. So, female voters aren't supposed to care that every major GOP candidate wants to use govt policy to force them to bear their rapists child, but attack Megan Kelly and OMG its an outrage? Ooookkkaayyyy...

As I said before (and some pundit ripped me off with his own article this weekend) where were these people in the moment blasting Trump to his face on stage? That's right - nowhere to be found. If you can't stand up to a guy wearing a dead raccoon on his head, how are these Republicans going to stand up to ISIS?

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

According to the Surveymonkey poll.

Ted Cruz gained 7 points.
Jeb Bush and Scott Walker lost 3 points.

This Republican race couldn't be going better.

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/NBC-SM Post Debate Poll 8 09 15.pdf

Some of these results are weird. Cruz up big? IMO Cruz did nothing in the debate. Kasich loses points? Now, obviously I thought he did well (because he is, you know, sane) but the CW was also that he did well. Jeb! losing points? Why? Christie losing points? After throwing red meat to the GOP base on the Forever War? Again, I don't think so.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Some of these results are weird. Cruz up big? IMO Cruz did nothing in the debate. Kasich loses points? Now, obviously I thought he did well (because he is, you know, sane) but the CW was also that he did well. Jeb! losing points? Why? Christie losing points? After throwing red meat to the GOP base on the Forever War? Again, I don't think so.

Makes perfect sense. The people are answering the polls. Not the 1%ers who pull the strings at the GOP.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

I felt Cruz came off as extremely phony. I don't get it.

 

[FadeToBlack&Gold]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

You know. I was wondering the same thing. What if he does get it. It's terrifying.

Trump getting crushed Mondale-style would be the best thing to happen to the Republicans in years. It might actually force them to start a complete re-evaluation of their priorities and leadership.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Makes perfect sense. The people are answering the polls. Not the 1%ers who pull the strings at the GOP.

Or the lamestream media who keep thinking the GOP base wants the reincarnation of Nelson Rockefeller to run for President. Trump is where the base is. Cruz is the one candidate siding with Trump. Bush is going down because apparently he mailed it in thinking he's entitled to the nomination. Kasich may be the media's darling, but do you really think base GOP voters want to hear a defense of gay marriage?

Trump gave them what they want - a no apologies tour. Ignore him at your own peril, as that Redstate idiot did for his candidate forum, and then the whole thing got overshadowed by Trump not being there!

 

[St. Clown]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Trump getting crushed Mondale-style would be the best thing to happen to the Republicans in years. It might actually force them to start a complete re-evaluation of their priorities and leadership.

I disagree entirely. Trump getting rolled would reinforce the establishment's desire to get the "perfect" establishment candidate through to the nomination in 2020 - only to get rolled again.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Or the lamestream media who keep thinking the GOP base wants the reincarnation of Nelson Rockefeller to run for President. Trump is where the base is. Cruz is the one candidate siding with Trump. Bush is going down because apparently he mailed it in thinking he's entitled to the nomination. Kasich may be the media's darling, but do you really think base GOP voters want to hear a defense of gay marriage?

Trump gave them what they want - a no apologies tour. Ignore him at your own peril, as that Redstate idiot did for his candidate forum, and then the whole thing got overshadowed by Trump not being there!

We may finally get a true believer to the nomination this time. That would be great. I want the GOP's REAL POLICY STANCES center stage. I want a national debate on telling incest and rape victims they must go to term. I want a debate on going to war with the entire Middle East all at the same time. I want a debate on a Constitutional Amendment outlawing gay marriage. I want a debate on TRICKLE DOWN being the only economic idea the GOP has.

Please.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

We may finally get a true believer to the nomination this time. That would be great. I want the GOP's REAL POLICY STANCES center stage. I want a national debate on telling incest and rape victims they must go to term. I want a debate on going to war with the entire Middle East all at the same time. I want a debate on a Constitutional Amendment outlawing gay marriage. I want a debate on TRICKLE DOWN being the only economic idea the GOP has.

Please.

You want this because you think we'll win 48 states.

I don't think you have considered the Other Possibility.

Let's say 30% of the country is absolutely, balls to the wall, smoking crayons level insane. That 30% right there, with nobody else, is probably enough to rack up 100 EV in the Usual Places.

Now let's say 30% of the country doesn't really pay attention to anything but the letter after the name. They don't listen to debates, they don't read position papers, heck, maybe they don't read. Assuming a 50/50 split, that's 15% more, and now you're talking about 200 EV.

You wanna risk everything on that last 69 EV? Cuz I don't.