You're putting words in my keyboard. I believe in the resurrection, but not on election day.
USCHO Fan Forum
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
-
The USCHO Fan Forum has migrated to a new plaform, xenForo. Most of the function of the forum should work in familiar ways. Please note that you can switch between light and dark modes by clicking on the gear icon in the upper right of the main menu bar. We are hoping that this new platform will prove to be faster and more reliable. Please feel free to explore its features.
Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing
- Thread starter Kepler
- Start date
- Status
You're putting words in my keyboard. I believe in the resurrection, but not on election day.
Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing
60% turnout every election! Or as they said on the Simpsons once reporting live from the cementary on election night: "The story here is that the dead have risen from their graves and their voting Democratic!"
60% turnout every election! Or as they said on the Simpsons once reporting live from the cementary on election night: "The story here is that the dead have risen from their graves and their voting Democratic!"
walrus
Wind up workin' in a gas station
Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing
Ouch, this ad would leave a mark if mary landrieu actually a soul
http://youtu.be/mEjqRLjP7Io
Ouch, this ad would leave a mark if mary landrieu actually a soul
http://youtu.be/mEjqRLjP7Io
dxmnkd316
Lucia Apologist
Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/nate-silver-sam-wang-responds
My favorite political battle this year is heating up.
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/nate-silver-sam-wang-responds
My favorite political battle this year is heating up.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing
I have no idea who is correct, but that's such a dumb statement by Wang that I'm inclined to favor Silver, at least until he says something equally dumb. It reminds me of the time Rasmussen claimed they were a legitimate outfit because they did well in 2010. Yes, if you intentionally overweight Republicans to sway pre-election narratives (which is Rasmussen's business model), then on those occasions when Republicans break well in the election you will do well. Of course, when there's no such late break you'll do poorly and when the late break is the other way you'll get destroyed.
I have no idea who is correct, but that's such a dumb statement by Wang that I'm inclined to favor Silver, at least until he says something equally dumb. It reminds me of the time Rasmussen claimed they were a legitimate outfit because they did well in 2010. Yes, if you intentionally overweight Republicans to sway pre-election narratives (which is Rasmussen's business model), then on those occasions when Republicans break well in the election you will do well. Of course, when there's no such late break you'll do poorly and when the late break is the other way you'll get destroyed.
Last edited:
Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing
I work with many models that have been validated by a single data point. I just don't see the problem here...
dxmnkd316
Lucia Apologist
Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing
This is an unintentionally hilarious post.
Edit: Even moreso if one misreads it as "violated by"
I work with many models that have been validated by a single data point. I just don't see the problem here...
This is an unintentionally hilarious post.
Edit: Even moreso if one misreads it as "violated by"
Slap Shot
I got nothing
Yeah, because this had been proven an epidemic exactly zero times.
The Maryland gubernatorial election between Paris Glendening and Ellen Sauerbray. Proven that the dead voted in substantial numbers in Baltimore yet courts did nothing. Can't have a democrat lose in the Free State!
It's may be closer than people think in this year's Maryland gubernatorial. I hope Mr. Poe stays home.
Slap Shot
I got nothing
No it wasn't. Not 20 years ago and not today.
Come on, it should be easy to reference multitudes of examples voter fraud to significantly measurable degrees given how much crowing draggers give the subject.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing
The funny part is that with the GOP in a lather to wipe hundreds of thousands of legal voters off the rolls, it seems like the only actual dozen or so cases of voter fraud the last couple decades have been by Republicans.
The funny part is that with the GOP in a lather to wipe hundreds of thousands of legal voters off the rolls, it seems like the only actual dozen or so cases of voter fraud the last couple decades have been by Republicans.
ScoobyDoo
NPC
Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing
Grimes is ahead of McConnell in some recent polls.
And outsourcing is good for the GOP.
Grimes is ahead of McConnell in some recent polls.
And outsourcing is good for the GOP.
Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing
I don't know who's right either, but I'm not sure why you consider the quoted statement to be dumb?
Somebody finally made the point the other day, perhaps in reference to the KY race "tightening". These races aren't tightening at all, or expanding with one notable exception. What's happened is pollsters applied a likely voter standard after Labor Day, which tends to benefit Republicans who are more likely to show up. Then when the likely voter model starts expanding as more voters get interesting in the races (usually the debates happen in Oct as well as a ramp up in ads and outreach) the new voters included tend to lean left.
The notable exception is Kansas, where Roberts has gone from bad to worse and the election for governor, normally a positive in a state like Kansas, is more like an anchor with deeply unpopular Gov Brownback running for re-election after royally screwing up the state's finances.
Otherwise every race is still within its margin of error like it was two months ago.
I don't know who's right either, but I'm not sure why you consider the quoted statement to be dumb?
Somebody finally made the point the other day, perhaps in reference to the KY race "tightening". These races aren't tightening at all, or expanding with one notable exception. What's happened is pollsters applied a likely voter standard after Labor Day, which tends to benefit Republicans who are more likely to show up. Then when the likely voter model starts expanding as more voters get interesting in the races (usually the debates happen in Oct as well as a ramp up in ads and outreach) the new voters included tend to lean left.
The notable exception is Kansas, where Roberts has gone from bad to worse and the election for governor, normally a positive in a state like Kansas, is more like an anchor with deeply unpopular Gov Brownback running for re-election after royally screwing up the state's finances.
Otherwise every race is still within its margin of error like it was two months ago.
mookie1995
there's a good buck in that racket.
Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing
Not that anyone here has an answer -- but why would a NH voter choose Scott Brown?
Not that anyone here has an answer -- but why would a NH voter choose Scott Brown?
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing
He used to be cute?
I'm reaching.
He used to be cute?
I'm reaching.
Because they took the President at his word and made the election a referendum on his policies?
ScoobyDoo
NPC
Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing
That's what Brown is counting on. The mindless automaton voter.
That's what Brown is counting on. The mindless automaton voter.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing
My complaint is it shirks Silver's methodological criticism and just shouts "scoreboard," which is the equivalent of saying that bad process good results > good process bad results.
"Dumb" isn't the right word. Since the whole idea of grounding predictions on good methodology is central to statistics, I'd call it "unfortunate" if I were being nice, "misleading" if I were being a little less nice, and "posturing" if I was being accusatory.
My complaint is it shirks Silver's methodological criticism and just shouts "scoreboard," which is the equivalent of saying that bad process good results > good process bad results.
"Dumb" isn't the right word. Since the whole idea of grounding predictions on good methodology is central to statistics, I'd call it "unfortunate" if I were being nice, "misleading" if I were being a little less nice, and "posturing" if I was being accusatory.
Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing
Maybe they've have seen the light and realize that the Emperor has no clothes.
ScoobyDoo
NPC
Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing
Then there's a whole lotta naked going on cause they're ain't nobody in GOP Leadership that has any and Scott Brown is a rubber stamp to everything that comes out of the Bone Man's or Mitch McConnell's mouth.
Then there's a whole lotta naked going on cause they're ain't nobody in GOP Leadership that has any and Scott Brown is a rubber stamp to everything that comes out of the Bone Man's or Mitch McConnell's mouth.
- Status