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Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

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Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

joecct said:
Playing on buyers' remorse??
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More like there are zero respected elder statesmen left in the GOP that you can easily trot out. Bush Sr is 90 years old and can't walk so I don't think you'll see him hitting the trail. If you want to see Bush II and Cheney out there, you'll get no argument out of me! :eek: ;) Beyond that though, you're left with bitter old men like McCain and Romney who still think its 1982. There's no GOP counter to Bill Clinton, now or in 2016....
 
Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

Kepler said:
Get ready for more of this.

I love how McConnell is countering with Romney. Yeah, that should set aside his image as a tool of the oligarchs. :D
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Terri Lynn Land is also using Romney to stump for her in Michigan today. Not sure what the strategy is there, considering the hard right hates Romney and he's already proven himself incapable of effectively communicating with swing voters. Just another example of how the state Republican Party has thrown away their best chance at winning a Senate seat here in 20 years (though settling for Land as their third-choice candidate in the first place doomed them from the start).
 
Rover said:
More like there are zero respected elder statesmen left in the GOP that you can easily trot out. Bush Sr is 90 years old and can't walk so I don't think you'll see him hitting the trail. If you want to see Bush II and Cheney out there, you'll get no argument out of me! :eek: ;) Beyond that though, you're left with bitter old men like McCain and Romney who still think its 1982. There's no GOP counter to Bill Clinton, now or in 2016....
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Coincidentally Jimmy Carter turned 90 yesterday.

McCain should have been retired to suds after 2008.
Romney lost a winnable election same as Kerry did in 2004.
The old guard needs to go and the torch needs to be passed to a new generation.
 
Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

FadeToBlack&Gold said:
Terri Lynn Land is also using Romney to stump for her in Michigan today. Not sure what the strategy is there, considering the hard right hates Romney and he's already proven himself incapable of effectively communicating with swing voters. Just another example of how the state Republican Party has thrown away their best chance at winning a Senate seat here in 20 years (though settling for Land as their third-choice candidate in the first place doomed them from the start).
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Land is a third rate party hack while Peters is a fourth rate one. Knew Peters a long time ago. He put the "u" in dooooooouchebaag back then. Haven't seen or heard anything to suggest that has changed. Definitely an election where "None Of The Above" is the proper choice.
 
Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

Kepler said:
Get ready for more of this.

I love how McConnell is countering with Romney. Yeah, that should set aside his image as a tool of the oligarchs. :D
Click to expand...

It's going to be a sad day when he becomes the leader of the Senate. The only benefit is it insures sweeping Democratic victory in 2016.
 
Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

GOP tries to defuse reputation that they are sexist and pandering towards young women by releasing sexist, pandering ad targeting young women.

Here's a tip, guys. When even Tucker "I Just Stepped Out Of 1953" Carlson understands how mansplainingly disgusting your ad is, you probably shouldn't run it.

Maybe the next "clever" GOP ad will try slut-shaming women for using birth control? That would really be "connecting with the young." Or maybe an ad with a black guy saying "Voting?! Dat's Whack!!!"
 
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Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

Kepler said:
GOP tries to defuse reputation that they are sexist and pandering towards young women by releasing sexist, pandering ad targeting young women.

Here's a tip, guys. When even Tucker "I Just Stepped Out Of 1953" Carlson understands how mansplainingly disgusting your ad is, you probably shouldn't run it.

Maybe the next "clever" GOP ad will try slut-shaming women for using birth control? That would really be "connecting with the young." Or maybe an ad with a black guy saying "Voting?! Dat's Whack!!!"
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I think the ad maker may be onto something, comparing both candidates to wedding dresses.

Wedding dresses are predominantly white, overpriced, and good for virtually nothing else. We insist on keeping them for reasons we usually can't articulate, and at the end of the day they just become a burden on our offspring.

To me, that pretty much sounds like the members of Congress.
 
Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

joecct said:
Coincidentally Jimmy Carter turned 90 yesterday.
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Was thinking the other day when I read that: the last 4 ex Presidents before Clinton and Bush II all lived into their 90's. Ford, Carter, Reagan, and Bush I. Must be something in the water over at the WH....
 
Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

Rover said:
Was thinking the other day when I read that: the last 4 ex Presidents before Clinton and Bush II all lived into their 90's. Ford, Carter, Reagan, and Bush I. Must be something in the water over at the WH....
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Probably not going to get 6 living at once for a while, though. Carter and Bush Senior are both 90 and will likely be dead before the expiration of 45's term, even if it is a one-off...

Remarkably, Bill is still just 68 and Dubya (68) and Obama (53) are both quite young, so we may get a shot at tying the record during 47's term. Oddity: there were 5 presidents born between 1908 and 1917 (JFK, LBJ, Nixon, Ford, Reagan) but just 2 born between 1918 and 1945!
 
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Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

I'd never have believed it, but the GOP is this close to [URL="http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/senate-forecast/"]blowing what should have been not only control of the Senate but a 9-10 seat swing[/URL] and a comfortable 4-5 seat majority.

As of now they should still eek it out, but of the 7 close races 6 of them have to break their way. CO, IA and KS are going to come down to the wire. AK, AS and GA haven't opened up the way they should have. Their only good news is LA, where they are starting to pull away, and KY, where it looks like Grimes is going to come up short. They've also blown what should have been a 50/50 shot at NC.

NC should start to really be a worry for the GOP. They've lost VA, probably permanently -- just too many college graduates in NoVa now. If NC follows their electoral math becomes almost impossible except in wave years, and the on-year climate is actually VERY stable and doesn't look like it's going to produce waves in the foreseeable future. That leaves them with a slow but lethal bleed out: 48/52 followed by 47/53 followed by 46/54...

The bigger picture is that even coming off a winnable second term election against an incumbent with high negatives, the only states clearly trending more Republican that I can think of are IN and WV (maybe AZ, though it's hard since they came off a favorite son in 2008). On the other hand, the states that are trending more Democratic are: VA, CO, NM, GA, FL - those are some big, important states.
 
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Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

Kepler said:
I'd never have believed it, but the GOP is this close to [URL="http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/senate-forecast/"]blowing what should have been not only control of the Senate but a 9-10 seat swing[/URL] and a comfortable 4-5 seat majority.

As of now they should still eek it out, but of the 7 close races 6 of them have to break their way. CO, IA and KS are going to come down to the wire. AK, AS and GA haven't opened up the way they should have. Their only good news is LA, where they are starting to pull away, and KY, where it looks like Grimes is going to come up short. They've also blown what should have been a 50/50 shot at NC.

NC should start to really be a worry for the GOP. They've lost VA, probably permanently. If NC follows their electoral math becomes almost impossible except in wave years, and the on-year climate is actually VERY stable and doesn't look like it's going to produce waves in the foreseeable future. That leaves them with a slow but lethal bleed out: 48/52 followed by 47/53 followed by 46/54...
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You think they're blowing it now wait till 2016 after McConnell and the Bone Man run things for two years.
 
Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

ScoobyDoo said:
You think they're blowing it now wait till 2016 after McConnell and the Bone Man run things for two years.
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They're going to get creamed in 2016 but that's expected -- their configuration in 2016 is as bad as the Democrats' is right now. So it won't be "blowing it."

What by all rights ought to happen (lame duck midterm, terrible terrible map) is the GOP should pick up about 9 seats this time, then lose 8 in 2016. Instead, if they only pick up 6 this time and lose 8 next time that would leave a 57-43 Dem Senate to go with the possibility of a very strong and (outside the 29%ers) popular Dem president. The House should still stay comfortably in the GOP's hands no matter what -- the fix is in on the districts until the 2020 census, by the time of which the GOP will be a completely different party, much closer to their-state-and-local pre-1980 Nixonian coalition of Rockefeller Republicans, Orange County money, and deep south herpa-derps.
 
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Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

Anyone know how pollsters account for early voting in their methodology? Are they just lumped into the likely voter category or are they separated out in some fashion? I ask because 10 percent of Iowa voters have already requested absentee ballots and 3 percent have already voted. And the early ballots skew democratic.
 
Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

Kepler said:
I'd never have believed it, but the GOP is this close to [URL="http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/senate-forecast/"]blowing what should have been not only control of the Senate but a 9-10 seat swing[/URL] and a comfortable 4-5 seat majority.

As of now they should still eek it out, but of the 7 close races 6 of them have to break their way. CO, IA and KS are going to come down to the wire. AK, AS and GA haven't opened up the way they should have. Their only good news is LA, where they are starting to pull away, and KY, where it looks like Grimes is going to come up short. They've also blown what should have been a 50/50 shot at NC.

NC should start to really be a worry for the GOP. They've lost VA, probably permanently -- just too many college graduates in NoVa now. If NC follows their electoral math becomes almost impossible except in wave years, and the on-year climate is actually VERY stable and doesn't look like it's going to produce waves in the foreseeable future. That leaves them with a slow but lethal bleed out: 48/52 followed by 47/53 followed by 46/54...

The bigger picture is that even coming off a winnable second term election against an incumbent with high negatives, the only states clearly trending more Republican that I can think of are IN and WV (maybe AZ, though it's hard since they came off a favorite son in 2008). On the other hand, the states that are trending more Democratic are: VA, CO, NM, GA, FL - those are some big, important states.
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Its tough for any party to win 9 or 10 Senate seats, especially when that means beating 5 or so incumbents. Despite all the bluster, the Senate races remain the same in total, just with a few changes in the individual races. Dems will definitely lose 3 (although Goopers might want to throw some bucks at SD given that its a 3 person race with a credible independent). However, the NC and IA races have been swapped with as of right now Hagan looking much better and Braley looking much worse. So, Dems needs to win two out of the four seats in AK, LA, IA, and AR. While the races are close in CO, KY, and GA I expect them to revert back to their lean in all cases. I also think Roberts will lose in KS, but its to be determined whether that matters or not (only in a 50-49-Orman scenario).

I am amused how a 2 or 4 point lead when its like 42-38 or something suddenly becomes an unassailable margin. That goes for any race no matter who's running. I think as we begin the meat of the election seasons where debates and advertising ramps up over the next month, Itch McConnell has done well not to do or say anything stupid so I'd expect him to pull off a low single digit win, while Nunn will force Purdue to a run off but that as well as Landreau in LA is going to be tough to win. Pryor seems to be in better shape than he's getting credit for as he's going to have Bill Clinton vouching for him in a place where that might make a difference and his opponent has done some stupid things (who votes against the Violence Against Women Act, and in an election year no less :confused:). Couldn't say about the Alaska race and for some reason polling has dried up in CO, although that may be due to all of the misses there in 2012... :eek:
 
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