British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

[Kepler]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

I was just watching this on, of all things, Aljazeera (I just got my digital upgrade today including 10 international channels, life is very good). It's probably the worst gaffe I've ever seen, because it isn't a mistake, it's being caught on tape reinforcing every nasty stereotype of politicians. And the woman was a very nice old lady. When she gets told later that Brown called her a bigot, you can see she is sincerely, genuinely hurt. It makes you want to punch Brown right in the nose.

Seriously, it was like something out of a movie.

BTW, something very funny I heard on their next story which was the Iranian man in the street's reaction to the British debates. Apparently there is a Persian saying, "if you trip on a pebble, you can be sure it was put there by an Englishman."

 

[3W]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

Yikes.

That's right up there with the epically stupid ads produced by the Conservative Party in Canada which appeared to make fun of then-Liberal leader Jean Chretien's face, which was partially paralyzed due to Bell's palsy:

<object width="480" height="385"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/PikszBkfTHM&hl=en_US&fs=1&"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/PikszBkfTHM&hl=en_US&fs=1&" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="480" height="385"></embed></object>

When the dust settled, the Prime Minister (who like Brown, had succeeded, not elected to the post) even lost her seat and the Conservatives were left with two seats.

Chretien ended up as the Prime Minister for the next decade.

 

[Red Cloud]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

Brown ended up spending almost 45 minutes with the woman in her home when he arrived to apologize in person - the Independent will note tomorrow that he spent only 15 minutes with the Queen when he went to Buckingham Palace to dissolve Parliament and only 20 minutes to sign the Lisbon Treaty.

Meanwhile, this is a godsend for the Tories. They've been casting Brown as being out of touch with the common voter since the beginning of the campaign, as evidenced by this poster they had up just before the first debate:

 

[Red Cloud]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

The final debate is tonight in Birmingham, it starts at 3:30pm ET on CSPAN-3 if you would like to watch. Since it's on the Beeb this time around, you should be able to watch it from their Live Election link as well: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/election2010/liveevent/

This debate will focus on the British economy, which has been one of Labour's focuses for the election and so it likely represents Brown's last good chance to convince the voters that he deserves an elected term as prime minister. The BBC has a decent rundown of 12 things to look for tonight: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/election_2010/8650478.stm

 

[BoomGoestheDynamite]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

The final debate is tonight in Birmingham, it starts at 3:30pm ET on CSPAN-3 if you would like to watch. Since it's on the Beeb this time around, you should be able to watch it from their Live Election link as well: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/election2010/liveevent/

This debate will focus on the British economy, which has been one of Labour's focuses for the election and so it likely represents Brown's last good chance to convince the voters that he deserves an elected term as prime minister. The BBC has a decent rundown of 12 things to look for tonight: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/election_2010/8650478.stm

Out of curiosity, did Labor call this election or was did the time table (I believe that is how it works) run out and this was "forced"?

 

[Red Cloud]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

Out of curiosity, did Labor call this election or was did the time table (I believe that is how it works) run out and this was "forced"?

It was basically forced. Allowing Parliament to expire is something of a faux pas (it's never been done before) and the only reason this election is happening now is because the 5 year mandate is nearing the end. The Tories have been in front in the polls practically since the end of the last election (with a few execptions around the time Brown became PM) and in some cases way ahead by the tune of 20% or more. For the last few years its been assumed that the Tories would be the majority in the next Parliament, and I still can't tell if it's a chicken or egg thing that suddenly they aren't shoo-ins at the time the election was called - it may well be that as the election got closer, Brits got cold feet on Cameron, or vice versa. A hung parliament was likely before Cleggmania began, it's even more likely now.

One thing that's true in both Canada and the UK is that you'll never see a majority government call an early election unless they think they can boost their numbers with a snap election.

 

[WeWantMore]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

A ton of interesting scenarios presented by Nate Silver, with pretty graphs to ogle at
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/04/post-uk-debate-scenarios.html

 

[Kepler]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

One thing that's true in both Canada and the UK is that you'll never see a majority government call an early election unless they think they can boost their numbers with a snap election.

If you had a comfortable but slowly sinking majority, why wouldn't you call one half-way through your term to give yourself another full term?

How do you call an election? A simple vote in the Commons?

 

[Red Cloud]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

If you had a comfortable but slowly sinking majority, why wouldn't you call one half-way through your term to give yourself another full term?

As we're seeing here, public opinion can swing wildly during the general election. A party that did that would be rolling the dice on losing power before they had to.

How do you call an election? A simple vote in the Commons?

The Prime Minister petitions the Queen (or in Canada, the Governor-General) to dissolve Parliament (which in modern days, is granted as a matter of course unless there are some extreme circumstances - the Canadian crisis of December 2008 was one of those). There are some situations in which the PM is required to request dissolution, both more common in minority government situations, the most prominent being a lost vote of no confidence in the government or if a budget gets voted down (as a budget is considered a VONC if it is defeated).

 

[Red Cloud]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

The first major media endorsement is in and it's from The Economist, which tends to harbor right-of-center positions on economic issues but is stridently pro-Europe. They backed Labour in 2005 but it was apparent from reading Bagehot (the British opinion column) of late that they would not be supporting Gordon Brown (I'm a subscriber - got sick of Newsweek's crap and changed subscriptions). Their support went to David Cameron and the Tories, which is a bit of a disappointment for Nick Clegg and the Lib Dems, who had been hoping to secure the endorsement on the strength of their European position.

Debate starts in just moments, and it indeed will be seen on that BBC link I provided earlier.

 

[Kepler]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

The first major media endorsement is in and it's from The Economist, which tends to harbor right-of-center positions on economic issues but is stridently pro-Europe.

I don't know if I'd call anything in The Economist strident. It's more like two old chaps sitting on the veranda out of Burmese Days, sipping tonic water and having a bit of a tiff.

Best **** news mag on earth, though.

 

[BoomGoestheDynamite]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

The first major media endorsement is in and it's from The Economist, which tends to harbor right-of-center positions on economic issues but is stridently pro-Europe. They backed Labour in 2005 but it was apparent from reading Bagehot (the British opinion column) of late that they would not be supporting Gordon Brown (I'm a subscriber - got sick of Newsweek's crap and changed subscriptions). Their support went to David Cameron and the Tories, which is a bit of a disappointment for Nick Clegg and the Lib Dems, who had been hoping to secure the endorsement on the strength of their European position.

Debate starts in just moments, and it indeed will be seen on that BBC link I provided earlier.

You know virtually the entire Economist is available for free online. Unless you really want to read their economic forecasts and Big Mac index

 

[Red Cloud]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

You know virtually the entire Economist is available for free online. Unless you really want to read their economic forecasts and Big Mac index

I'm old school - I prefer something I can hold in my hands. And I basically get it for free since I'm using frequent flyer miles for an airline I'll never fly again if I can help it to buy it.

 

[Red Cloud]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

I only caught about half of last night's debate, but it sounds like David Cameron came out on top in this one with Clegg close behind, much like the second debate. What that really means is more bad news for Gordon Brown - the news outlets are saying that he lost bigger than Cameron won. He and his party are being described as looking and sounding "tired."

The question now becomes whether the Tories can parlay last night into some momentum for a majority. Bookies in England say they're getting "a flood of bets for an outright Tory victory," and while a hung parliament is still the favorite at InTrade, it has lost a good amount of ground to the Tory majority proposition in the last couple of days.

This is a big spot for the campaign as a lot of voters who are voting by mail will be sending in their ballots this weekend. That certainly doesn't bode well for Labour, which is definitely in panic mode now - they've pulled out Tony Blair to campaign for the party in the last week of the election. But they just can't seem to get any traction. This morning at the unveiling of a major billboard campaign, Brown and one of his chief lieutenants, Lord Mandelson, were interrupted by the sound of a nearby car accident, which drew a good chunk of the assembled media. It turned out that the car was driven by a Labour supporter, who crashed into a bus shelter. Not skipping a beat, the snarky media asked Mandelson point blank if the crash was a metaphor for the Labour campaign.

 

[Rover]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

I prefer something I can hold in my hands. And I basically get it for free

??? Are you talking about the British election or you by yourself on a typical weekend night?



Sorry, I just couldn't resist.

 

[Red Cloud]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

Jon Stewart spent a good chunk of last night's show pretty much roasting the entire election: http://tv.gawker.com/5527780/jon-stewart-mocks-the-laughable-tameness-of-british-political-scandals

 

[Red Cloud]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

Just a reminder that Northern Ireland is still Northern Ireland.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/04/30/AR2010043000990.html

Police in Northern Ireland launched a major security operation on Friday in a bid to stop dissident republicans disrupting the British parliamentary election next week.

A 1998 peace agreement largely ended three decades of violence between predominantly Catholic groups who want a united Ireland and mainly Protestant unionists who want Northern Ireland to remain part of the United Kingdom. But militant splinter groups have stepped up attacks recently.

To prepare for the polling on May 6, extra patrols and vehicle checkpoints are being mounted in the region. Officers have been called on to work additional shifts and those normally behind desks are being put out on the streets.

"We know that in the run-up to the election there are certain elements in society who want to mount attacks on police and to achieve maximum impact," Deputy Chief Constable Judith Gillespie told a media briefing.

"We know there is an intelligence picture which suggests the dissidents are increasing their level of activity."

...

Most of the main Northern Irish paramilitary groups have surrendered their weapons but Republican dissidents such as the Real IRA and the Continuity IRA remain active. They killed two British soldiers and a policeman last year and have carried out several car bomb attacks since then.

Analysts have warned the dissidents might use the British election to draw attention to their cause, with an attack on the British mainland thought to be one their goals. Their capabilities might not allow a strike beyond Northern Ireland but a deadly attack within the province remains an immediate threat.

In recent weeks, dissidents have detonated large car bombs at the army base at Holywood housing the local headquarters of the intelligence service MI5, the courthouse in Newry and the police station in Newtownbutler on the south Armagh border.

 

[Red Cloud]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

Two more endorsements are in, one's a minor surprise, the other one is a big surprise.

The Times has endorsed the Conservatives for the first time in 18 years, calling Labour "tired, defensive and ruinously reliant on higher government spending" while adding that "David Cameron has shown the fortitude, judgment and character to lead this country back to a healthier, stronger future."

The big surprise comes from the Guardian, which is usually a reliable Labour supporter. Not this time - this time Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats have earned their endorsement. The paper notes that its pages have supported the concept of proportional representation (a major Lib Dem plank and expected to be one of their major demands in a minority government) for over a century. They call the Lib Dem plank a "true mirror of this pluralist nation, not an increasingly unrepresentative two-party distortion of it."

Both the Times and the Guardian supported Labour five years ago.

Meanwhile, Brown just appeared in a very combative 30-minute interview on the BBC. He managed to lose the debate with the interviewer, in my view. It's looking more and more that David Cameron is right - this is now a two horse race between the Tories and the Lib Dems with a Tory victory coming from landing a majority, and a Lib Dem victory coming from a hung parliament. At any rate, as long as the Tories outgain Labour in seats - maybe even if they don't, now - it's looking very likely that David Cameron will be moving into 10 Downing Street next month.

 

[Red Cloud]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

The Tories are earning the lion's share of the newspaper endorsements thus far. The Mirror stayed true to Labour in the end, and the Guardian went with the Lib Dems, but every other endorsing newspaper thus far has gone for the Tories, including the Times and today, the Financial Times. The remaining undeclared papers are the Independent (which will likely take either the Lib Dems or Labour) the Telegraph, and the Daily Mail (both of which will easily go for the Conservatives).

Interesting move by David Cameron coming tomorrow - he's going to Northern Ireland to campaign for the Ulster Unionists. Some new polls are saying that the Tories are inching closer to possibly scoring a majority, and if they can even come close, the unionist parties in Northern Ireland might play a role in supporting a Tory minority without relying on Nick Clegg.

"Voting by post" (mail) is well underway, and many Britons have already voted using the method, but there are rumors swirling of significant fraud being detected within the system, with the Daily Mail going so far as to claim that fraud "could determine the outcome of the election." They report that police have launched 50 criminal inquiries nationwide amid widespread cases of electoral rolls being packed with bogus voters. Worth keeping an eye on.

Want a laugh? Try the manifesto of the Official Monster Raving Loony Party, a satirical party that has been officially registered (and has run candidates) for almost 50 years.

 

[Red Cloud]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

Labour's giving up the ghost - today a number of their surrogates are pushing for tactical voting by left and center-left voters to keep the Tories from achieving a majority. That means they're basically asking voters who might otherwise vote Labour to vote for the Lib Dems in constituencies where the race is between the Tory and the Lib Dem. At the same time, it's a plea for Lib Dem voters in Tory/Labour races to vote Labour. The former seems more likely to happen more often than the latter at this point, but anything's possible. Lib Dem voters are much more energetic right now than Labour voters.

And, as Bagehot says today, "To be successful and worth it, tactical voting requires others to follow the same logic, both in your own constituency and elsewhere. A failed tactical vote is the most wasted kind of all."

Really, only a six possible scenarios for the election on Thursday:

1) The Tories earn a majority of more than 20 seats. If this happens, the drama is pretty much over, and we can expect at least three years before the next election (depending on whether David Cameron thinks he can get a bigger majority in the interim) or even the full five.

2) The Tories earn a majority, but it's a slim one. If this happens, the next election will probably come before the five years is out, maybe two or three years out, because defections, expulsions (usually in the sense of an MP rejecting his own government's budget), by-elections, etc. can whittle away small majorities pretty quickly.

3) The Tories fail to earn a majority, but just barely. If this occurs, the smaller parties are in the driver's seat, especially the DUP, SNP, and Plaid. Cameron would probably prefer to do business with them than have parts of the Lib Dem platform foisted upon him.

4) The Tories have a plurality, but are 30+ seats away from the majority. This scenario puts Nick Clegg into the role of kingmaker, but does give David Cameron at least the option of working with Labour if Clegg's demands are too high. That said, a Tory/Lib Dem coalition or support agreement is most likely in this case, possibly with Vince Cable becoming Chancellor.

5) Labour gets the plurality, but finishes third in party votes. This scenario, I think, really puts Clegg in the driver's seat more than any. In this situation, we may even see Clegg become Prime Minister if he demands the position as Labour's price of a coalition, since he's already ruled out supporting Gordon Brown in such a situation.

6) Labour gets the plurality with a second place finish in party votes. This is probably the best Labour and Gordon Brown especially can hope for at this point, as it's really the only way Brown can have a chance of staying Prime Minister. It'll still require a coalition or support agreement with the Lib Dems, but at least they'll have some semblance of legitimacy.

In any of the last four cases, I think another election is at most 20 months away, and in the worst-case scenario could come by October.

The Tories want #1 but would easily take #2 if you guaranteed it today. The Lib Dems definitely want #4 or #5. Labour wants #6 but would settle for #5. The small parties definitely want #3 or #4. The first three scenarios are Tory victories, the last three are Lib Dem victories. Six is probably the only real Labour victory possibility.