British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

[Red Cloud]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

Here's something weird.

A YouGov poll for tomorrow's Sun suggests support for the Lib Dems has jumped 8% after last night's TV debate - putting them in second place. That would see the Tories on 33%, Lib Dems on 30% and Labour on 28%, although the quirks of the UK electoral system would ensure Labour remained the largest party with 276 seats, the Tories with 245 and the Lib Dems with just 100. BBC political analyst David Cowling, however, warns that further polling evidence would be needed before a true reflection of the nation's mood emerges.

Bear in mind that "just 100" for the Liberal Democrats would be gigantic for them.

Gotta quote this one right here... Brits have some of the driest, most sarcastic humor in the world.

YouGov chairman Peter Kellner said: "Suddenly we're in uncharted waters. The Lib Dem surge throws this election wide open. When the volcanic dust from Thursday's debate has settled, who will have suffered most - Labour or the Tories?"

It may still be too soon to assess the full impact of last night's debate, but Cameron took a few swipes at Clegg today on the campaign trail.

One other thing Brits are good for is having the definitive odds on pretty much everything under the sun. Before last night, oddsmakers had the Lib Dems at 300-to-1 to win an outright majority. After the debate, that was at 25-to-1, and they were 14-to-1 to earn the most seats.

 

[Kepler]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

Cameron closed saying that voters should "choose hope over fear" and chastised both leaders for trying to conjure fear for a Conservative government. He also used the word "change" a lot, which sounds familiar.

I saw footage of him speaking at, I think, a Tory party conference, and everything down to the logo on the podium looked like it had been shipped right from an Obama rally. The slogan was even something like "Change You Can Believe In," which I think might have been a Mets slogan in the late 70's.

 

[Red Cloud]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

I saw footage of him speaking at, I think, a Tory party conference, and everything down to the logo on the podium looked like it had been shipped right from an Obama rally. The slogan was even something like "Change You Can Believe In," which I think might have been a Mets slogan in the late 70's.

The Tories hired Anita Dunn and Bill Knapp's consultancy group in Washington to help with the debates and the campaign. Either they're not very original or they figure that if it worked the first time it can work again.

 

[Kepler]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

The Tories hired Anita Dunn and Bill Knapp's consultancy group in Washington to help with the debates and the campaign. Either they're not very original or they figure that if it worked the first time it can work again.

Probably a little of both. Tony Blair's campaign had everything from Bill Clinton's except the "town called 'Hope'".

 

[Red Cloud]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

Two polls released over the last two days showing the Liberal Democrats taking the lead (albeit well within the margin of error). BPIX and the Daily Mail have the race 32/31/28 in favor of the Lib Dems over the Tories in a poll from the 16th and the 17th, YouGov and the Sun have it 33/32/26 Lib Dems over Tories from the 17th and 18th.

Meanwhile, Brown and Cameron are continuing to focus on each other (which is fair, since despite the swing the Lib Dems are still at this point pretty likely to be far behind Labour and the Conservatives in total seats) while Clegg is certainly riding a high wave of optimism but is working to temper expectations for the time being (on that same wavelength).

Strategic voting will certainly play a role in the final outcome. A lot of Lib Dem supporters would prefer not to have David Cameron as Prime Minister, but really don't want Gordon Brown, or vice versa. In some constituencies, that will likely have Lib Dem voters peeling off to the Tories or to Labour. But at any rate, it does seem like the Lib Dems will have a hearty role in the next Parliament regardless of what happens.

The first of three Welsh debates took place yesterday morning on Sky News, featuring the Plaid taking on the top Welsh representatives of the three main parties.

Tomorrow night is the first Scottish debate and the second Welsh debate, both on ITV at 4pm Eastern in the respective countries. The Scottish debates are in the same vein, with the SNP taking on the Scottish leaders of the three main parties.

The second debate in England between Brown, Cameron, and Clegg takes place on Thursday at 3pm ET on Sky News (and probably on CSPAN-3 as well), and this one will probably be the one that'll be of the most interest to an American audience, as it will focus on international affairs.

An hour later, the first Northern Irish debate will start on UTV, featuring Peter Robinson of the DUP, Gerry Adams of Sinn Fein, Reg Empey of the UUP, and Margaret Ritchie of the SDLP.

 

[Red Cloud]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

Probably a little of both. Tony Blair's campaign had everything from Bill Clinton's except the "town called 'Hope'".

There's now a "Cameron Girl" up on YouTube (it's horrendous). So... yeah.

 

[Kepler]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

The first of three Welsh debates took place yesterday morning

I can help thinking of this as a Monty Python skit.

 

[Red Cloud]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

Labour is in a bad way, and yet Gordon Brown may find himself continuing to reside at Number 10. Ever since the first debate, the ruling party for the last 13 years has found itself polling in third place in 14 of 18 polls, and are tied with the Lib Dems for 2nd in two of the other four. Although the quirky nature of the UK election system as it relates to national distribution means that Brown may well still find himself with a plurality of the seats, the likelihood of Labour matching the Thatcher-Major record of four consecutive majorities is looking pretty slim.

Nick Clegg is rapidly becoming an international superstar. His personal popularity ratings are at Churchillian levels right now. All sorts of American media outlets, from TIME to the Christian Science Monitor are buzzing about Clegg's debate performance and the Lib Dems rising fortunes. Today at the release of the Scottish Lib Dems manifesto, Alistair Carmichael, the party's leader in Scotland, crowed that the possibility of the Lib Dems actually forming the government, with Nick Clegg as Prime Minister is "becoming increasingly likely" although Clegg himself continues to downplay expectations on that level. Rumor has it that he may have a scandal breaking in the coming days as well. There's still just over a fortnight left in the campaign, and that's an eternity in a parliamentary election. Tomorrow night's debate could be a game-changer too.

What would happen in a hung parliament is anyone's guess, but what seems sure now is that Clegg and the Lib Dems may well have a lot of pull in the next government regardless of whether they try to demand an ersatz coalition with whichever party gains a plurality. The Labour representative at the Scottish debate last night dropped hints that the party is very open to the idea of forming a coalition with the Lib Dems.

Sun Apr 20-21: Con 33/LD 31/Lab 27 - Labour hung (256-252-113)
Sun Apr 19-20: LD 34/Con 31/Lab 26 - Labour hung (242-229-150)
Angus Reid Apr 19-20: LD 33/Con 32/Lab 23 - Conservative hung (260-208-153)
Times of London Apr 19-20: Con 32/LD 31/Lab 28 - Labour hung (276-236-109)
Ipsos: Apr 18-20: Con 32/LD 32/Lab 28 - Labour hung (271-234-116)

For comparison, the current standing in the Labour majority is 356-198-62.

 

[WeWantMore]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

Young hoodlum throws egg at David Cameron.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7103679.ece#cid=OTC-RSS&attr=797084

Released and not charged, because

... police established that he did not have any more missiles on him

??

 

[Red Cloud]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

Inevitable, really, that Nick Clegg would end up entangled in scandal. Tends to happen when you start playing with the big dogs.

The Telegraph reports that Clegg received donations from three major Lib Dem donors that were sent directly to his personal account, before he was the Lib Dem leader. Meanwhile, a verbal faux pas that he made in 2002 when he was a member of the European Parliament, when he said Britain was suffering from "delusions of grandeur" and a "misplaced sense of superiority" over its role in World War II, has come back to the forefront in the Daily Mail.

Tonight's debate is on CSPAN-3 at 3pm Eastern (or on C-SPAN's website), I doubt the Northern Irish debate starting at 4pm ET will be available in the US.

 

[Red Cloud]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

The first few instapolls coming in from the second debate from Bristol are giving the edge to David Cameron and I tend to agree. Cameron was clear and articulate today where he was a bit lost last week, especially on his position on Europe.

Clegg, I thought, was as dismal today as he was brilliant last week, clumsily fending off attacks from both sides and being unable to articulate his message of being the real alternative. At one point, he had to resort to lobbing ad hominems. Surprisingly, it was Gordon Brown who landed the hardest blows on Clegg during the international segment of the debate, telling him to "get real" on the UK's independent nuclear arsenal. One instapoll has given him the slight nod, however.

Brown sounded very strong on international points but his attacks on Cameron are starting to sound more desperate than accurate - he mentioned repeatedly that he feared for the economy under the Tories and for security under the Lib Dems, and called Cameron anti-Europe and Clegg anti-American. Cameron pointed out the desperation in his closing remarks, and Brown could only shake his head weakly.

The other parties are already chiming in with practical unanimity in scorn for the three major parties. The UKIP determined that none of the three, including the Tories, were sufficiently Euroskeptic, as did the BNP, which went as far as to say that Britain would be "an Islamic Republic in 30 or 40 years time" on the BBC. The SNP scolded all three parties for their stance on Afghanistan, joining with the Plaid to claim that the Tories, Labour, and Lib Dems do not care about Scotland or Wales.

I doubt this is going to lead to a seismic shift as last week's debate did, but Gordon Brown needed a clear win to have a shot at rebounding in the polls, and he did not get it. Even if Labour wins a plurality, if they do it with the third-most votes as many of the polls are saying right now, their ability to govern in a hung parliament will be seriously compromised.

 

[Kepler]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

it was Gordon Brown who landed the hardest blows on Clegg during the international segment of the debate, telling him to "get real" on the UK's independent nuclear arsenal

That was the soundbite that made it on POTUS on XM (although they played Clegg's response which was at least quick-witted). It seemed apparent Clegg's Blofeldian piranha strategy won't work any more, since Brown and Cameron tried to set an "adults are speaking now, children please be quiet" mood.

I'm still amazed at the level of the debate, which makes ours look like nursery school, yet on BBC radio yesterday the Brits on the street were decrying it as "dumbed down."

 

[BUT09]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

I'm still amazed at the level of the debate, which makes ours look like nursery school, yet on BBC radio yesterday the Brits on the street were decrying it as "dumbed down."

Not only are the debates more involved intellectually than anything we ever see, but I'm constantly amazed at how candid they are.

“David, you are a risk to our economy. Nick, you are a risk to our security.”

Would you EVER hear an American politician come out and say that?

I think it is endemic to the culture though. I was amazed what could be done and said on British TV when I lived over there (brief as it was).

 

[Red Cloud]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

Not only are the debates more involved intellectually than anything we ever see, but I'm constantly amazed at how candid they are.

It definitely does make American debates look like they're playing patty-cakes. American debates are boring compared to what we've seen in Canada and especially the UK.

The news of the day - Gordon Brown may have made the first slip-up of the debates yesterday when he denied association with an apparent Labour leaflet claiming that the Tories would cut benefits for the elderly. The Tories are absolutely hammering him on that point, and Labour is hitting back just as hard.

Some tidbits:

* One constituency, Thirsk and Malton in North Yorkshire, will now be elected in late May rather than in the general election due to the death of the UKIP candidate there. One constituency in 650 isn't that big, but in the case of a hung parliament every seat will count.

* It seems at this point that if there's going to be a majority government, it's probably going to be the Tories - but there hasn't been a poll indicating a likely majority since April 5, the day before the election was announced. They're floating the idea that a hung parliament would be bad financially for the country but it's not really taking flight. At any rate, the most interesting part of this election may come afterwards if there's a hung parliament.

* Worth keeping an eye on Northern Ireland, as each party's fares, especially the DUP, could play a role in a hung parliament. The UUP takes the Conservative whip, so if they can improve their lot, their seats would add to the Tories' count. The SDLP unofficially takes the Labour whip (Labour doesn't want to be seen as being too close to a nationalist party, but they often vote together), but the SDLP is in serious disarray. Meanwhile, even Sinn Fein could play a role. The number of seats they take reduces the number of real seats in Parliament and the number of seats a party needs for an effective government. But the DUP, which doesn't take anyone's whip, could be in a strong position for negotiation in a very close hung parliament if they have success in the election.

* More and more, the SNP and the Plaid are making joint statements and a lot of them are absolutely savage toward Labour. It will be interesting to see the role they might play in a hung parliament, but the level of cooperation between the two parties seems a bit odd for nationalist parties of different nations. The "enemy of my enemy" doctrine, perhaps.

* The BNP released its manifesto today (St. George's Day) with an odd showing which included a guy dressed as St. George. Defense was the major plank, which was unexpected since the party's main issue is immigration. Nick Griffin said the party's stance of pulling troops out of Afghanistan was resonating best with voters.

 

[Kepler]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

Defense was the major plank, which was unexpected since the party's main issue is immigration. Nick Griffin said the party's stance of pulling troops out of Afghanistan was resonating best with voters.

Isolationist nationalists? Is Pat Buchanan in the BNP?

 

[collegehcky2]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

* The BNP released its manifesto today (St. George's Day) with an odd showing which included a guy dressed as St. George. Defense was the major plank, which was unexpected since the party's main issue is immigration. Nick Griffin said the party's stance of pulling troops out of Afghanistan was resonating best with voters.

The Labour Party has been spending a good amount of $$$ in the eastern boroughs of London to stop the BNP from gaining more voters, but a lot of the middle-lower class that have seen a good amount of immigrants and ethnic citizens begin to succeed business-wise are starting to feel disenfranchised by all parties. If you ever seen the "literature" that the BNP puts out, it basically rips off the typical templates of the Tories and Labour, but then makes outrageous claims and promises. It's really scary to think that they're gaining a following.

 

[Red Cloud]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

The Labour Party has been spending a good amount of $$$ in the eastern boroughs of London to stop the BNP from gaining more voters

Well, technically they've been spending a good amount of £££.

but a lot of the middle-lower class that have seen a good amount of immigrants and ethnic citizens begin to succeed business-wise are starting to feel disenfranchised by all parties. If you ever seen the "literature" that the BNP puts out, it basically rips off the typical templates of the Tories and Labour, but then makes outrageous claims and promises. It's really scary to think that they're gaining a following.

The BNP is kind of an enigma to me - they wrap some pretty loathesome policies with some legitimate ones. They have an extreme stance on immigration and their blatantly racist approach to it, including their previous position of restricting membership to whites only. It tends to tar anyone who favors restriction on immigration, even those for whom race doesn't play a role in their approach, with the broad brush of racism. We see it in this country.

I can sum up the BNP in one word - pushback. I watched the BBC's Question Time that Griffin was invited to appear on, and I think he could have been easily dispatched from being taken seriously on that show if he'd simply been allowed to hoist himself by his own petard. The number of times he said "I never said that" or "that was out of context" was laughable. Unfortunately, he was instead the subject of a number of vicious attacks that, while accurate, made him out to be more of a sympathetic figure than he would ever deserve to be. I'm not suggesting that he simply be laughed off and not countered, but the pushback does tend to get people interested in what could be so outrageous about the party, look into the party, and some will be inevitably drawn to the party.

 

[Kepler]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

they wrap some pretty loathesome policies with some legitimate ones.

That's probably the way it always works, though. "We need to raise employment, modernize our industrial infrastructure, and reduce inflation, and to do so we'll ..."

To become a significant player you have to be on to something, even if your solutions are bizarre.

 

[Red Cloud]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

Some YouTube stuff to check out and enjoy.

Labour has a fun video describing some of their manifesto:
<object width="640" height="385"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/SCO-KwYpH0M&hl=en_US&fs=1&"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/SCO-KwYpH0M&hl=en_US&fs=1&" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="640" height="385"></embed></object>

The Conservatives hit Labour on spending, the economy, and crime.
<object width="640" height="385"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/6Qba6Yj6BJY&hl=en_US&fs=1&"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/6Qba6Yj6BJY&hl=en_US&fs=1&" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="640" height="385"></embed></object>

Nick Clegg basically outlines the Lib Dem manifesto with a unique edge:
<object width="640" height="385"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/jTLR8R9JXz4&rel=0&color1=0xb1b1b1&color2=0xcfcfcf&hl=en_GB&feature=player_embedded&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/jTLR8R9JXz4&rel=0&color1=0xb1b1b1&color2=0xcfcfcf&hl=en_GB&feature=player_embedded&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always" width="640" height="385"></embed></object>

The UKIP isn't as fancy as the major parties, but former leader Nigel Farage outlines his party's immigration position:
<object width="640" height="385"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/_1Bu_h3gLpg&color1=0xb1b1b1&color2=0xcfcfcf&hl=en_US&feature=player_embedded&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/_1Bu_h3gLpg&color1=0xb1b1b1&color2=0xcfcfcf&hl=en_US&feature=player_embedded&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always" width="640" height="385"></embed></object>

This one was just uploaded a few hours ago by the SNP and features a famous celebrity's endorsement:
<object width="640" height="385"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/JwsNjD0sJs8&hl=en_US&fs=1&"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/JwsNjD0sJs8&hl=en_US&fs=1&" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="640" height="385"></embed></object>

The Plaid makes the pitch that a hung parliament makes them a more attractive choice in Wales:
<object width="640" height="385"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/70UlXY8WxJw&hl=en_US&fs=1&"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/70UlXY8WxJw&hl=en_US&fs=1&" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="640" height="385"></embed></object>
(Same actors, same commercial, done in Welsh, which is kinda cool)

Nick Griffin introduces the BNP manifesto yesterday (11 mins):
<object width="640" height="385"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/YGQACWQdNmA&hl=en_US&fs=1&"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/YGQACWQdNmA&hl=en_US&fs=1&" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="640" height="385"></embed></object>

In place of paid political advertisements, parties are provided block space for free "election broadcasts." The Clegg video is one, this one is from the DUP:
<object width="480" height="385"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/3fktGopVDDA&hl=en_US&fs=1&"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/3fktGopVDDA&hl=en_US&fs=1&" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="480" height="385"></embed></object>

Sinn Fein has one too, looks like they aren't placing as much emphasis on production value:
<object width="480" height="385"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/t8LgswnKQP0&hl=en_US&fs=1&"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/t8LgswnKQP0&hl=en_US&fs=1&" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="480" height="385"></embed></object>

 

[Red Cloud]

Re: British Election 2010 - Jolly Good

Here's something Labour really needed right now:

The Sunday Telegraph has obtained a document which says Foreign Office officials suggested the Pope's forthcoming visit to Britain should be marked by asking him to open an abortion clinic, bless a gay marriage and launch a range of Benedict-branded condoms. The Foreign Office has apologised for the "foolish" document, and the individual responsible has been transferred to other duties. Foreign Secretary David Miliband is said to have been "appalled" upon hearing about the document's contents.

Sunday polls:

News of the World - Con 36/Lab 30/LD 23 (Hung parliament - too close to call on plurality)
Independent - Con 34/LD 29/Lab 28 (Hung parliament - Labour plurality by 7 seats)
Telegraph - Con 35/LD 31/Lab 26 (Hung parliament - Tory plurality by 46 seats)
Times - Con 35/LD 28/Lab 27 (Hung parliament - Tory plurality by 29 seats)