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Brexit 2: Happy Halloween

Re: Brexit 2: Happy Halloween

As we get ready for Super Saturday in Westminster, a few updates and predictions

The schedule is that the House will meet at around 9:30 local and the session will begin at 10:00. Then BoJo will give a speech and take questions. This could take a couple hours. Parliament will then begin debate and voting on the withdrawal agreement. There are three amendments (the Letwin Amendment most notable and most likely to succeed). The second bill will only be taken up by the House if the withdrawal agreement is rejected tomorrow.

What I expect will happen is the Letwin Amendment is voted on first. If it passes (and it should) then the ERG will oppose BoJo's plan whether it is voted on tomorrow or Monday. The withdrawal agreement will lose easily. Then the second government motion for a no-deal Brexit will fail spectacularly.

If for some reason the Letwin Amendment fails, the ERG will support the plan, and with Labour rebels that might just be enough to push the deal over the line. The UK will then crash out with no deal on 31 October. The number of Labour MPs who refuse to say how they will vote tomorrow is troubling. They might even be persuaded to oppose the Letwin Amendment so they have a chance to vote on the plan tomorrow. Then they have the campaign issue that they supported the deal, they passed the deal but BoJo never implemented the deal. That really isn't as great a campaign position as they think.

MP Nick Boles was interviewed tonight and believes the Letwin Amendment will pass and a vote will be delayed until Monday. He thinks it will still pass. I don't see how but he undoubtedly has access to math I lack because the ERG simply won't support this deal after tomorrow. Maybe there's another bloc that will support the plan after an extension is secured? He then says parliament will find the numbers to pass the required followup legislation and get Brexit done either by 31 October or a few days after - even without the ERG, SNP, Lib Dems and DUP. The only way that is possible is if the split in Labour is even bigger than anyone thinks. He didn't elaborate and the interviewer never asked. After seeing Nigel Farage lobby for an extension nothing will surprise me.
 
Re: Brexit 2: Happy Halloween

BoJo spoke. Then Theresa May spoke. MPs are now debating the Letwin Amendment.

Ken Clarke just said this deal is worse than what May brought them but he is going to regretfully vote for it anyway because it's better than nothing. (Then don't vote for it because if it passes you get nothing. You can't be this naive)

Meanwhile at the People's March there is a man dressed as a unicorn named Sunlit Uplands. "I like dressing up and I thought we have been promised the unicorn and I thought it’s right for everyone to get a unicorn."
 
Re: Brexit 2: Happy Halloween

It seems too many Labour MPs have forgotten the old Liverpool axiom: Never trust a Tory.

This just might pass.
 
Re: Brexit 2: Happy Halloween

Bercow has called the vote. A voice vote will not settle this. DIVISION!!

ETA: to clarify, this vote is on the Letwin Amendment.
 
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Re: Brexit 2: Happy Halloween

BoJo has quite an impressive streak in parliament.

BoJo is awfully defiant on the issue of asking the EU for the extension.

Corbyn seems to be saying that Labour will deliver a second referendum now.
 
Re: Brexit 2: Happy Halloween

Wow. That was disrespectful. SNP rep Joanna Cherry got up to speak and the entire Tory side of the chamber rose as one and walked out.
 
Re: Brexit 2: Happy Halloween

ticapnews said:
They loathe her. She had the "Revoke article 50" amendment in March and she's the one who successfully challenged BoJo's attempt to prorogue parliament for five weeks.
Click to expand...

Got it. Where are you watching the proceedings.
 
Re: Brexit 2: Happy Halloween

"Being concerned for the well-being of the honourable gentlelady, I would not recommend that she hold her breath." I'm going to miss Bercow.
 
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