Brexit 2: Happy Halloween

[ticapnews]

Re: Brexit 2: Happy Halloween

Breaking: there has been a breakthrough and a deal reached. It will go to EU leaders for agreement. If they agree it goes to parliament. No word yet on what the deal includes.

 

[ticapnews]

Re: Brexit 2: Happy Halloween

Barnier says deal will go through 2022.

In a surprise to no one, Corbyn says the deal is worse than May's. We still have not seen details.

The DUP say it still rejects the deal.

 

[ticapnews]

Re: Brexit 2: Happy Halloween

There won't be agreement today

Barnier says there will be “no ratification at the council” today.

The council will be able to give a favourable opinion on the recommendation, and on the draft agreement. It is a draft, he stresses.

He says the council has to formally agree the agreement after the European parliament has ratified it.

He says there should be “no surprises” here.

He says he has done what he has done to ensure member states are well informed.

He says he believes it can be ratified by 31 October.

The updated agreement. 64 pages. It is May's deal with a few changes in Ireland.
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sit...g_protocol_on_ireland_and_nothern_ireland.pdf

 

[mookie1995]

Not sure how you can blame parliament but OK. There was never going to be an acceptable deal. I know you can't or won't accept it, but the voters were sold a fantasy that somehow the UK would go from membership in a powerful trading bloc to single entity at a fraction of the size and yet still gain influence and wealth - and not just gain them, but get them overnight. That the issue of the border in Ireland would magically be solved, allegedly by technology although experts say that technology is a decade away. If the technology is ready and the resolution so simple, why have May and BoJo not deployed such technology on the island? Why have we not seen this wonderful technology at work, with BoJo and his Brexiteers trumpeting the success of such a system? Because it only exists in the imagination not reality. The entire campaign was a lie and the UK version of the FEC stated that if this were a binding resolution it would have thrown out the results, ordered a new election and chucked most of the Leave campaigners into jail. Considering it is a non-binding resolution it is baffling they are still going forward with it.

They should just leave. If both sides can’t agree on a deal, oh well.

Not sure how you are comfortable trying to make excuses cause someone was sold a line that they fell for when voting, or that people didn’t go and vote. The vote was held and these are the results.
Horrible outcome, but votes have consequences.

So c’est la vie
Plus you can shortly move to Scotland and set up shop

 

[ticapnews]

Re: Brexit 2: Happy Halloween

Government will publish legal advice this afternoon. The agreement will be put to a vote on Saturday. All according to plan...

 

[ticapnews]

They should just leave. If both sides can’t agree on a deal, oh well.

Not sure how you are comfortable trying to make excuses cause someone was sold a line that they fell for when voting, or that people didn’t go and vote. The vote was held and these are the results.
Horrible outcome, but votes have consequences.

So c’est la vie
Plus you can shortly move to Scotland and set up shop

It was non-binding. It had all the legal authority of a national referendum on the apple as the national fruit. Generations of Brits will suffer because their grandparents were xenophobes. The outcome for me personally might work out eventually, but unlike some people I do have empathy. I feel for those kids. Besides, if it weren't for this whole Brexit mess it wouldn't matter to me if Scotland gained independence or not. UK citizenship would be fine for my mother and me. Post Brexit UK citizenship isn't nearly as attractive.

 

[ticapnews]

Re: Brexit 2: Happy Halloween

From the DUP

These arrangements will become the settled position in these areas for Northern Ireland. This drives a coach and horses through the professed sanctity of the Belfast agreement.

For all of these reasons it is our view that these arrangements would not be in Northern Ireland’s long-term interests. Saturday’s vote in parliament on the proposals will only be the start of a long process to get any withdrawal agreement bill through the House of Commons.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Brexit 2: Happy Halloween

I love it when a plan comes together. Irish unification, Scottish independence. Bye bye empire, empire; bye bye.

 

[ticapnews]

I love it when a plan comes together. Irish unification, Scottish independence. Bye bye empire, empire; bye bye.

There's still Wales! Or is it Whales?

 

[ticapnews]

Re: Brexit 2: Happy Halloween

Parliament just voted 287-275 for the Letwin Amendment. In yet another loss for BoJo (he still hasn't won a vote in parliament) the loophole in the Benn Act is closed. Regardless of how parliament votes on Saturday he's going to have to request an extension and that request can only be withdrawn once all subsequent legislation is also passed. Under UK law there will be numerous bills required to implement Brexit. As I have speculated, the plan was to have parliament pass a plan Saturday then not introduce those bills and allow 31 October to pass without an actual deal. This prevents that possibility.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Brexit 2: Happy Halloween

I still don't get why Boris or anyone wants a no deal Brexit. That seems like national, economic, and personal political suicide.

 

[ticapnews]

Re: Brexit 2: Happy Halloween

The SNP will not support the deal (no surprise). No one has asked the Lib Dems because we all know the answer. It appears the Tories are on board. About a dozen of those who were kicked out of the Tory party might be persuaded to support the deal if allowed back.

Labour remain the mystery. Corbyn has said as a party Labour will not support the deal, but there are several MPs who might support a deal. One of the ideas being floated by Labour MPs is to amend the Brexit proposal to require a confirmation vote by the public.

 

[ticapnews]

I still don't get why Boris or anyone wants a no deal Brexit. That seems like national, economic, and personal political suicide.

Because JRM and his business pals have taken positions against British interests and stand to make a ****load of money once England crash out. Despite the turmoil that would follow a no deal Brexit, the election would still be the Tory's to lose. The vote on the left will be split but the vote on the right will be united. The Brexit Party will no longer exist and will not be a threat to the Tories.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Brexit 2: Happy Halloween

Because JRM and his business pals have taken positions against British interests and stand to make a ****load of money once England crash out. Despite the turmoil that would follow a no deal Brexit, the election would still be the Tory's to lose. The vote on the left will be split but the vote on the right will be united. The Brexit Party will no longer exist and will not be a threat to the Tories.

Is it really that simple? They shorted the UK and need to crash it to make their windfall?

I assume Dump is trying to do the same thing.

 

[ticapnews]

Is it really that simple? They shorted the UK and need to crash it to make their windfall?

I assume Dump is trying to do the same thing.

https://www.globalresearch.ca/how-brexit-was-engineered-by-foreign-billionaires-to-bring-about-economic-chaos-for-profit/5614194

The billionaires behind Brexit stand to gain the most. They dreamed up this scheme years ago and the wave of migrants fleeing from war (thanks to us and the Russians) gave them the opportunity to fan the xenophobia that grips England. They've made their sycophants like Nigel Farage fabulously rich and have been repaid handsomely.

It wouldn't surprise me if this idea actually originated in the Kremlin and billionaires like Robert Mercer were just pawns in Putin's plan.

 

[ticapnews]

Re: Brexit 2: Happy Halloween

It turns out the deal is in violation of UK law. In order to prevent a border in the Irish Sea, conservative Tories pushed through the Taxation Act of 2018. It was designed to frustrate the Backstop. It was written by none other than Jacob Rees-Mogg. The irony is so thick...

it is..“unlawful for Her Majesty’s government to enter into arrangements under which Northern Ireland forms part of a separate customs territory to Great Britain”.

Before it even starts debate on the withdrawal agreement parliament will need to revisit the 2018 law and either amend it or abolish it. If the law remains as-is then parliament can't even start debate on withdrawal. There is already legal action to stop it.

It makes one wonder if BoJo, JRM and his lot are so incompetent they never noticed, or if they have ulterior motives. Since JRM wrote the law you'd have to think he'd be aware...right?

 

[ticapnews]

Re: Brexit 2: Happy Halloween

By the Guardian's count BoJo's plan has a majority of two, but I'm unable to find a list of undecided MPs so we could be talking dozens or even hundreds. Because of the DUP position, the ERG is no longer united in favor of the plan. In fact, they will seek to delay the vote on the plan to next week to force BoJo to comply with the Benn Act and seek an extension. It is amusing to hear staunch Brexiteers talk about the need for an extension... None other than Nigel Farage himself gave a speech in the European Parliament calling for an extension. Then I saw a flight of pigs out my window. That move stands a good chance of success as Labour, Lib Dems, the SNP, the DUP and most of the smaller parties will all support it.

Meanwhile in the court case in Scotland, the argument over the tax law wrapped up two hours ago, and despite Lord Pentland saying he would rule on the case by the end of the day, he hasn't yet. It is now after 6PM local time. It seems unlikely he would rule anyway because parliament haven't taken up the bill yet and court's are loathe to rule on cases ahead of time.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Brexit 2: Happy Halloween

By the Guardian's count BoJo's plan has a majority of two

I thought if the DUP stood 100% against it then he was toast? How did he manage to pull enough of his Tory rebels back into the fold? Straight bribery?

Labour must have a count, too. When something like this used to happen in the House (before every vote was a straight ticket foregone conclusion) the opposition would rank order their rebel Members by vulnerability. They'd get the count and then allow every vulnerable Member up to the threshold to be cough "principled," and then if you missed the cut you were SOL. There would be goodies to help get over your disappointment, either in electoral help, pork, or just flat out under the table bribes.

No one really knows how the game is played
The art of the trade
How the sausage gets made

We just assume that it happens

But no one else is in the room where it happens

 

[ticapnews]

Re: Brexit 2: Happy Halloween

I thought if the DUP stood 100% against it then he was toast? How did he manage to pull enough of his Tory rebels back into the fold? Straight bribery?

OK, I've finally tracked down some hard numbers. There are now 10 Labour MPs who represent Leave constituencies that are supporting the deal. Also Nick Boles and David Gauke, former Tory MPs, will side with BoJo. Phillip Hammond, one of the 21 who lost the whip, said he'll vote for the deal if BoJo says publicly that no deal is off the table. Why he would trust BoJo is beyond me. BoJo said no English government should or would do exactly what he just did in Northern Ireland.

It is a small sample size, but not a good sign if Labour MPs are deserting the party in these numbers to vote for this. It isn't clear where the ERG stand. On the one hand they want a no deal, on the other they hate this deal so much they can't stomach if this passes and somehow BoJo is maneuvered into implementing it. Going into the vote tomorrow it could be very interesting to see which way they break.

Government has tabled two bills for tomorrow
The first is a vote on BoJo's plan. If that is successful, the second will not come to the floor. If the bill fails, the second bill asks parliament to approve a no deal Brexit.
Several Labour MPs are going to attach an amendment requiring a confirmatory public vote. They say it has 90 signatories already.
There is also a plan to delay the vote until next week to force BoJo to seek the extension.

In a related story, Lord Pentland just released his ruling. As expected, he rejected the argument.

It is a cardinal principle of constitutional law that the courts should not intrude on the legitimate affairs and processes of parliament.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Brexit 2: Happy Halloween

Several Labour MPs are going to attach an amendment requiring a confirmatory public vote.

By referendum?