Brexit 2: Happy Halloween

[mookie1995]

I noticed that. Raab is still saying BoJo's plan will pass parliament. You're not supposed to get high off your own supply.

 

[ticapnews]

Re: Brexit 2: Happy Halloween

Raab might be right, in a way. But it won't be a clean passage. Corbyn will attach (and it has the votes to succeed) a second referendum to it. Vote for the deal and you're also voting for a second referendum. Of course, that also means if you are voting for a second referendum you are voting for the deal.

So the voters will have the final say: BoJo's deal or Revoke Article 50. Up or down.

 

[ticapnews]

Re: Brexit 2: Happy Halloween

There will be no vote today. Bercow ruled that it would be inappropriate for Government to bring the motion as it was already discussed and debated on Saturday and nothing had changed. A Tory MP argued that BoJo had sought an extension since then, which was unforseen, so debate should go ahead today. Bercow asked if he was seriously questioning whether a "representative of the crown would not obey the law."

The Guardian thinks there are enough votes to pass the plan when it does come. By a 320-317 margin (with 2 abstentions). This would be a hell of a time for Sinn Fein to show up. Of course, it's irrelevant because there will never be a clean Brexit bill. MPs (even the Tories) do not trust BoJo and will put amendments on the bill. More than likely the key one will be a second referendum. Labour's #2 man Starmer said today that if a second referendum were attached then Labour will support the bill and Brexit would sail through with only the hardline Tories opposing it. Unless BoJo is going to whip against his own bill...

Signals from the EU are that an extension will be granted, the only question is how long.

 

[ticapnews]

Re: Brexit 2: Happy Halloween

BoJo wants his plan voted on this week and will pull it if MPs don't agree. Meanwhile the EU is likely to grant the extension, the length depends on what Parliament do this week.

Back to the debate, the SNP’s Ian Blackford says that the bill will impact on people across the UK and that the government has a duty to negotiate will all of the devolved administrations. He says he regrets that the SNP hasn’t had the opportunity to work with the government on a compromise.

“Mr Speaker, what on earth are we doing pushing this legislation through in a couple of days?” he says.

Anna Soubry says that she can’t find a single part of the Brexit bill that meets a promise made by the Leave campaign in the referendum.

 

[ticapnews]

Re: Brexit 2: Happy Halloween

Dominic Grieve is speaking. He says we are at the end of a long process and we are “very tired and very weary”.

He says that the Brexit bill related to an international treaty and, as such, changing it unilaterally was out of the question. “We can provide some safeguards,” he says. “We could put in a referendum lock and I will vote for that in due course.”

He questions the PM’s assertion that the arrangements will “melt away” once a free trade agreement is signed. But Grieve says that it is all a matter for negotiation with the EU.

“The suggestion that we can get a satisfactory free trade agreement for ourselves and then insist that Northern Ireland be included in it, is simply wrong,” says Grieve. He adds that this is an extraordinary thing for a unionist party to do.

The DUP's Sammy Wilson says, "The Prime Minister thinks I can't read the agreement and I can't see in that agreement what the impact is in Northern Ireland."

Sinn Fein chimes in. They expected reunification in five years but now it could be expedited thanks to Brexit.

Everything is moving in that direction. I believe it was moving there even before Brexit, but clearly Brexit has become a catalyst for it. What is important to note is the German example. I think with the Berlin wall, Germany was reunited within a year ... the fact that events overtook and the country was unified within a year.

Unionist party indeed...

 

[Kepler]

Re: Brexit 2: Happy Halloween

What did the DUP say when Sinn Féin said that?

If you're orange are you more sick of London or Dublin now?

 

[Handyman]

Re: Brexit 2: Happy Halloween

Why is the EU gonna extend again? They are basically capitulating and ceding all authority going forward. Now every time a country has any issue they will just "leave" and the EU will have to beg them to come back. Friggin spineless...

Elections have consequences...sorry not sorry,

 

[Kepler]

Re: Brexit 2: Happy Halloween

Why is the EU gonna extend again? They are basically capitulating and ceding all authority going forward. Now every time a country has any issue they will just "leave" and the EU will have to beg them to come back. Friggin spineless...

Elections have consequences...sorry not sorry,

On the one hand, yes.

On the other hand the rich people who control our country and the UK also control the EU and they don't want to damage their holdings.

 

[ticapnews]

Why is the EU gonna extend again? They are basically capitulating and ceding all authority going forward. Now every time a country has any issue they will just "leave" and the EU will have to beg them to come back. Friggin spineless...

Elections have consequences...sorry not sorry,

The EU would rather not go through with a messy divorce with the UK. If a second referendum is in the cards that avoids the UK crashing out without a deal. Either they don't leave at all or they leave on the deal BoJo negotiated which is much better for Europe. In theory the Good Friday Agreement is preserved since NI remains in the EU and the border moves to the Irish Sea. Of course, the reality is that a border would be needed eventually...or NI will just reunify anyway.

 

[ticapnews]

Re: Brexit 2: Happy Halloween

Jeremy Corbyn is apparently trying very hard to become the most unpopular pol in British history. He already has worse numbers than BoJo but that isn't good enough.

It looks like a second referendum will fail in the House because Corbyn opposes it despite pleas, from within his party and without, to support it. He is also refusing to allow a snap election on 12 December. For someone who allegedly wants to be the next Prime Minister he is trying awfully hard to be as unliked as humanly possible by everybody.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Brexit 2: Happy Halloween

Jeremy Corbyn is apparently trying very hard to become the most unpopular pol in British history. He already has worse numbers than BoJo but that isn't good enough.

It looks like a second referendum will fail in the House because Corbyn opposes it despite pleas, from within his party and without, to support it. He is also refusing to allow a snap election on 12 December. For someone who allegedly wants to be the next Prime Minister he is trying awfully hard to be as unliked as humanly possible by everybody.

What's his play? Is he afraid a crash out referendum would pass?

 

[Rover]

Re: Brexit 2: Happy Halloween

Jeremy Corbyn is apparently trying very hard to become the most unpopular pol in British history. He already has worse numbers than BoJo but that isn't good enough.

It looks like a second referendum will fail in the House because Corbyn opposes it despite pleas, from within his party and without, to support it. He is also refusing to allow a snap election on 12 December. For someone who allegedly wants to be the next Prime Minister he is trying awfully hard to be as unliked as humanly possible by everybody.

Why would he give in to Johnson's demands when Boris has no leverage? Parliament has already ordered him to seek an extension. He legally can't get out of that. Corbyn is under no obligation to throw him a bone.

Having said that, when the time is right Corbyn needs to agree to a new election and then step down in favor of a more palatable option to lead Labor in the election.

 

[ticapnews]

What's his play? Is he afraid a crash out referendum would pass?

I don't see his play. He's not acting logically. Maybe he's playing 4-D chess but it's just as likely he's simply incompetent. The way forward is clear: champion a second referendum. Win a victory for Remain then hold an election and ride that wave into office. He could be temporary PM by the end of THIS month by doing so. He could call for a second referendum - thus satisfying the Lib Dems, SNP and others. Then issue a no-confidence vote in BoJo and have the queen name him PM because at that point he could command a majority of parliament.

The only reason I see is that he wants the UK to crash out, then have an election at the height of chaos and be swept into office with Tony Blair-like numbers (405 seats in parliament). That's a huge risk, not to mention tossing away the the UK's future for a chance of electoral glory.

 

[ticapnews]

Why would he give in to Johnson's demands when Boris has no leverage? Parliament has already ordered him to seek an extension. He legally can't get out of that. Corbyn is under no obligation to throw him a bone.

Having said that, when the time is right Corbyn needs to agree to a new election and then step down in favor of a more palatable option to lead Labor in the election.

He shouldn't take the bait on an election until the extension is secured. However, had he gotten on board with a second referendum in September he'd already be PM. He has bungled this whole thing. It doesn't seem enough just to be the PM. He needs to be the white knight, saving the union from catastrophe.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Brexit 2: Happy Halloween

Why would he give in to Johnson's demands when Boris has no leverage? Parliament has already ordered him to seek an extension. He legally can't get out of that. Corbyn is under no obligation to throw him a bone.

Having said that, when the time is right Corbyn needs to agree to a new election and then step down in favor of a more palatable option to lead Labor in the election.

Is there anybody important in Labour at the moment to the left of Corbyn? On the one hand he seems to be a genuinely incompetent politician, but on the other hand he's the first UK pol in 40 years to even make vaguely the correct noises on fiscal reform. The last thing we need is another Clinton/Blair Neoliberal to f-ck Britain up even worse than it is now. That's a recipe for a full scale Oswald Mosley UK government.

 

[Handyman]

Re: Brexit 2: Happy Halloween

He shouldn't take the bait on an election until the extension is secured. However, had he gotten on board with a second referendum in September he'd already be PM. He has bungled this whole thing. It doesn't seem enough just to be the PM. He needs to be the white knight, saving the union from catastrophe.

Ah so he is doing the "McCain Suspending His Campaign And Driving Back to Washington" move...yeah that didnt work out so well for Johnny Boy

 

[Rover]

Re: Brexit 2: Happy Halloween

Is there anybody important in Labour at the moment to the left of Corbyn? On the one hand he seems to be a genuinely incompetent politician, but on the other hand he's the first UK pol in 40 years to even make vaguely the correct noises on fiscal reform. The last thing we need is another Clinton/Blair Neoliberal to f-ck Britain up even worse than it is now. That's a recipe for a full scale Oswald Mosley UK government.

I think the goal is to win Kep, not worry about purity. If a Tony Blair clone can wrest power from Boris Johnson, then go Tony Blair Clone. Sort out the purity during the next party leadership contest. I'm not familiar enough with UK politics however to know who might be an acceptable alternative to carry the Labor banner.

 

[ticapnews]

Re: Brexit 2: Happy Halloween

Is there anybody important in Labour at the moment to the left of Corbyn? On the one hand he seems to be a genuinely incompetent politician, but on the other hand he's the first UK pol in 40 years to even make vaguely the correct noises on fiscal reform. The last thing we need is another Clinton/Blair Neoliberal to f-ck Britain up even worse than it is now. That's a recipe for a full scale Oswald Mosley UK government.

He has taken all of the media spotlight. He has also surrounded himself in leadership with people who see things the same way he does. Both make it very difficult to determine what alternatives there are and how palatable they'd be. BoJo is at around 33% approval right now, which is abysmal. Normally a PM couldn't survive. Losing your first half dozen votes in parliament would do it, too. But Corbyn is at 23% with a whopping 58% disapproval (-35) and those numbers aren't getting better. For a fleeting moment Corbyn's approval was higher than Theresa May's but he managed to **** that away before the election. It truly has become a race to the bottom and even Corbyn can't blow this one.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Brexit 2: Happy Halloween

I think the goal is to win Kep, not worry about purity.

Not the point at all. If our parties win and just enact the policies that have gotten the West where it is then the same sh-t continues.

Eventually we have to rise to the occasion and be real Leftist parties with real Leftist ideas again. Otherwise the ratchet effect of the last 50 years continues, with radical right wing parties moving us 7 steps right and then weak sauce Neoliberal center parties moving us 1 step back left. It takes a few generations more but everybody still winds up in a feudal corporate prison.

Neither you nor I have been f-cked by the political trends of the last several generations -- indeed we have both benefited. This isn't an emergency to us. But hell, look at others -- look even at the Cafe which is still a fairly rarefied bunch. Other than a tiny slice of the population everybody else in the West has been as-s f-cked without lube by the Plutes.

Here are the three choices:

1. Go Hard Left now, before it's too late, and restore the democratic traditions and middle classes that made life for most people a shade better than absolutely dreadful.

2. Dawdle with third way masturbation and allow the authoritarians to destroy the Enlightenment experiment and remove democracy from human vocabulary.

3. Dawdle with third way masturbation until the 99% have had enough and they react with a bloodbath that makes The Terror look like Ascot.

The choice is yours:

1. Live with dignity.

2. Die in shame.

3. Die very, very painfully.

 

[ticapnews]

Re: Brexit 2: Happy Halloween

Corbyn: Labour will support a new election once the EU grant the extension.
EU: We'll give you the extension once you vote for a new election.
BoJo: Excellent. It's almost 31 October.