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Bracketology

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Re: Bracketology

After predicting the games for the rest of the season, plus the conference tournaments, this is one prediction for the final PWR and the brackets:

PWR:

1 Miami (CC)
2 Denver U (WC)
3 Wisconsin (WC)
4 Boston Coll (HE)
5 Bemidji State (CH)
6 Yale (EC)
7 CO College (WC)
8 Cornell (EC)
9 St Cloud (WC)
10 Mich State (CC)
11 Maine (HE)
12 New Hampshire (HE)
13 Boston Univ (HE)
14 Minn-Duluth (WC)
15 Ferris State (CC)
---
16 AK-Fairbanks (CC)
17 North Dakota (WC)
18 Northern Mich (CC)
19 Mass-Lowell (HE)
20 NorthEastern (HE)
21 NE-Omaha (CC)
22 Vermont (HE)
23 Mass-Amherst (HE)
24 Union (EC)
25 Michigan (CC)

The bands:
#1 seeds - Miami, Denver, Wisconsin, Boston College
#2 seeds - Bemidji State, Yale, Colorado College, Cornell
#3 seeds - St. Cloud, Michigan State, Maine, New Hampshire
#4 seeds - Boston University, Minn-Duluth, Ferris State, RIT

Miami gets Fort Wayne, Denver goes to St. Paul, Wisconsin gets Albany and BC goes to Worcester.

Bemidji gets paired up with BC, Yale with Wisconsin, CC with Denver and Cornell with Miami.

St. Cloud plays Cornell, Michigan State plays CC, Maine plays Yale and UNH plays Bemidji.

Among the #4 seeds, BU is paired with BC, UMD with Wisconsin, Ferris plays Denver and RIT plays Miami.

BU can't play BC. UMD could play Wisconsin because the WCHA has five teams in the field, but the BU/BC situation makes the switch easy. There are no other conference clashes in the first round.

But we have attendance issues and an astonishing 11 flights. That can be alleviated easily enough by moving the CC/MSU game to Fort Wayne and the SCSU/Cornell game to St. Paul.

That gives us a bracket that looks like:

Code: 
[B]Albany			Worcester		Fort Wayne	St. Paul[/B]
Wisconsin		BC			Miami		Denver
Yale			Bemidji			CC		Cornell
Maine			UNH			Mich State	St. Cloud
Ferris St		UMD			RIT       	Boston U

Now if you'll excuse me, I'm off to Vegas :p
 
Re: Bracketology

irishfan85 said:
Even if you don't believe in the eye test, just look at how Hockey East's top team did out of conference this year. Lost by three on home ice to Miami (and tied MU), got swept (10-2 scoring margin) by Wisconsin, lost to middle of the pack ECAC team RPI and lost to Cornell. Only OOC win was against bottom of the pack ECAC team Dartmouth.
Click to expand...


Just think HE would be comparable to any other league in the country had UNH won even half of the OOC games. On the other hand Vermont is still in the PWR despite being 8th in HE because they went 6-1 with the only loss coming to DU, and wins against DU, UMD, Yale, etc.

Some HE teams can win OOC.;)
 
Re: Bracketology

Priceless said:
After predicting the games for the rest of the season, plus the conference tournaments, this is one prediction for the final PWR and the brackets:

PWR:

1 Miami (CC)
2 Denver U (WC)
3 Wisconsin (WC)
4 Boston Coll (HE)
5 Bemidji State (CH)
6 Yale (EC)
7 CO College (WC)
8 Cornell (EC)
9 St Cloud (WC)
10 Mich State (CC)
11 Maine (HE)
12 New Hampshire (HE)
13 Boston Univ (HE)
14 Minn-Duluth (WC)
15 Ferris State (CC)
---
16 AK-Fairbanks (CC)
17 North Dakota (WC)
18 Northern Mich (CC)
19 Mass-Lowell (HE)
20 NorthEastern (HE)
21 NE-Omaha (CC)
22 Vermont (HE)
23 Mass-Amherst (HE)
24 Union (EC)
25 Michigan (CC)

The bands:
#1 seeds - Miami, Denver, Wisconsin, Boston College
#2 seeds - Bemidji State, Yale, Colorado College, Cornell
#3 seeds - St. Cloud, Michigan State, Maine, New Hampshire
#4 seeds - Boston University, Minn-Duluth, Ferris State, RIT

Miami gets Fort Wayne, Denver goes to St. Paul, Wisconsin gets Albany and BC goes to Worcester.

Bemidji gets paired up with BC, Yale with Wisconsin, CC with Denver and Cornell with Miami.

St. Cloud plays Cornell, Michigan State plays CC, Maine plays Yale and UNH plays Bemidji.

Among the #4 seeds, BU is paired with BC, UMD with Wisconsin, Ferris plays Denver and RIT plays Miami.

BU can't play BC. UMD could play Wisconsin because the WCHA has five teams in the field, but the BU/BC situation makes the switch easy. There are no other conference clashes in the first round.

But we have attendance issues and an astonishing 11 flights. That can be alleviated easily enough by moving the CC/MSU game to Fort Wayne and the SCSU/Cornell game to St. Paul.

That gives us a bracket that looks like:

Code: 
[B]Albany			Worcester		Fort Wayne	St. Paul[/B]
Wisconsin		BC			Miami		Denver
Yale			Bemidji			CC		Cornell
Maine			UNH			Mich State	St. Cloud
Ferris St		UMD			RIT       	Boston U

Now if you'll excuse me, I'm off to Vegas :p
Click to expand...

I think you'd have to flip Cornell and Yale. I think you have to keep Cornell in Albany. I think you are being optimistic on BU's chances of making this field, too. I assume you have them losing to BC in the Hockey East final for this to happen?
 
Re: Bracketology

Are we taking into account assumptions that certain teams will win their respective league championship? I say this because it's of a decent chance that Cornell or Yale may not win the ECAC championship.
 
Re: Bracketology

Priceless said:
After predicting the games .....
That gives us a bracket that looks like:

Code: 
[B]Albany			Worcester		Fort Wayne	St. Paul[/B]
Wisconsin		BC			Miami		Denver
Yale			Bemidji		  CC		Cornell
Maine			UNH			Mich State	St. Cloud
BU		        UMD			RIT       	Ferris Bueller

Now if you'll excuse me, I'm off to Vegas :p
Click to expand...

why not just switch 4/13 & 5/14? BU & Maine in Albany will help that site much more than FSU. and now I, er-I mean BU doesn't have to fly to Minny.
 
Re: Bracketology

FlagDUDE08 said:
Are we taking into account assumptions that certain teams will win their respective league championship? I say this because it's of a decent chance that Cornell or Yale may not win the ECAC championship.
Click to expand...

It is currently assumed that the conference leaders will with their respective tournaments.
 
Re: Bracketology

FlagDUDE08 said:
Are we taking into account assumptions that certain teams will win their respective league championship? I say this because it's of a decent chance that Cornell or Yale may not win the ECAC championship.
Click to expand...
That's true, but the Bracketology considerations usually assume that the teams that are #1 in each league will win their tournament. That's the reason that UNH was placed despite a low PWR earlier.

One could redo the seedings based upon various combinations of upsets in the league tourneys.

mookie1995 said:
why not just switch 4/13 & 5/14? BU & Maine in Albany will help that site much more than FSU. and now I, er-I mean BU doesn't have to fly to Minny.
Click to expand...
Aren't the flying considerations only for #1 seeds?
 
Re: Bracketology

FlagDUDE08 said:
Are we taking into account assumptions that certain teams will win their respective league championship? I say this because it's of a decent chance that Cornell or Yale may not win the ECAC championship.
Click to expand...

You have to account for autobids when figuring out the field. This is how you know which bubble teams are in and which are out. For instance, we know Ferris State is out right now even though they're 16th in the Pairwise, because there aren't any Atlantic Hockey teams in the Top 15. Therefore, their tournament winner, whoever it is, would displace them.

Since we don't know which teams will ultimately win, we make the assumption that the league leaders are the favorites, and we do that across the board so there's no ambiguity. It becomes more clear after the tournaments are over.

Essentially, it all boils down to which teams are on the bubble. Tournament upsets change the face of the field dramatically near the bubble - that is, tournaments won by teams who would not have otherwise gotten in with an at-large bid.
CCHA: Anyone but Miami or Michigan State.
CHA: Anyone but Bemidji State.
ECAC: Anyone but Yale or Cornell.
HEA: Anyone but BC, UNH, UMass, or Vermont.
WCHA: Minnesota, Minnesota State, Alaska-Anchorage, or Michigan Tech.

Let's say this week's pairwise reflects the end of the season, and Miami, Bemidji, St. Lawrence, Maine, Sacred Heart, and Colorado College are your champions.

Sacred Heart's the lowest ranked in RPI. They're the #16 team and they bounce Ferris State from the tournament. Next is St. Lawrence. They become the #15 team and they bounce UMass. Maine is also considered an upset champion, and they bounce Cornell to become the #14 team. Miami, Bemidji, and CC would have been in anyway, so no other teams get bounced out.

Thus, we can determine this about the Pairwise.
1-10: They're in, no matter what.
11: Almost certainly in. There'd have to be an upset champion in every conference for them to miss out.
12: Probably in. It would take five upset champions to bounce them.
13-15: The true bubble. 15 is usually out but this year the likely CHA champion has a good shot at an at-large slot. This year, they're just very tenuous, since one upset puts them out.
16: Out, since the Atlantic Hockey champion will displace them.
 
Re: Bracketology

There haven't been that many shocking upsets in the conference tourneys as we've seen in basketball, but maybe this is the year.

Air Force, Robert Morris, Boston University & Michigan would be on my short list. Air Force wouldn't displace anyone in the field since the AHA doesn't have a Top 16 team.

Could be a really bad year to be on the bubble.
 
Re: Bracketology

dggoddard said:
There haven't been that many shocking upsets in the conference tourneys as we've seen in basketball, but maybe this is the year.

Air Force, Robert Morris, Boston University & Michigan would be on my short list.

Could be a really bad year to be on the bubble.
Click to expand...

When is it ever good to be on the "bubble";)
 
Re: Bracketology

FlagDUDE08 said:
College playoff determinations are always so confusing. Thanks to all of you for helping to make it a little more clear. Now if I could figure out how PWR works..... time to dust off Google....
Click to expand...

I'm better than Google. Ask me.
 
Re: Bracketology

ScoobyDoo said:
Sweet. If that happens the whining about the bubble teams will reach new heights. Ban PWR now. KRACH for everyone, etc.
Click to expand...

If we just wanted a WCHA tournament, we'd have one.

Oh right, we do. It's held before the NCAA tourney, like every other conference.
 
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