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Bracketology 1.1 - before the conference tournaments. Don't be upset

Re: Bracketology 1.1 - before the conference tournaments. Don't be upset

Adrian was worse off after the first loss, so the split was better on their PWR than a loss and season done.
(Actually we could just go by the RPI and ignore the PWR. The PWR and RPI are exactly the same all the way down to number 23)
 
Re: Bracketology 1.1 - before the conference tournaments. Don't be upset

NUProf said:
Adrian was worse off after the first loss, so the split was better on their PWR than a loss and season done.
(Actually we could just go by the RPI and ignore the PWR. The PWR and RPI are exactly the same all the way down to number 23)
Click to expand...

Usually works-out that way...

But the KRACH makes more sense. :p
 
Re: Bracketology 1.1 - before the conference tournaments. Don't be upset

joecct said:
I know. But 1-1 hurts the PWR.
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1-1 is better than 0-1, which is what would have happened had the NCHA not used this format. It is designed to protect the higher seeds from being upset in a one off.
 
Sir Nubs said:
1-1 is better than 0-1, which is what would have happened had the NCHA not used this format. It is designed to protect the higher seeds from being upset in a one off.
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I’m curious to see if other leagues like the SUNY or NEHC consider going to the 2 game series format. I think in PWR era, that’s the format to use.
 
PrezdeJohnson09 said:
I’m curious to see if other leagues like the SUNY or NEHC consider going to the 2 game series format. I think in PWR era, that’s the format to use.
Click to expand...
That would be nice!

Well it may be a while, but the rent a rink schools (SUF & JWU) may have difficulty in clearing Friday and Saturday ice, especially when Saturday could be open ended.
 
Re: Bracketology 1.1 - before the conference tournaments. Don't be upset

PrezdeJohnson09 said:
I’m curious to see if other leagues like the SUNY or NEHC consider going to the 2 game series format. I think in PWR era, that’s the format to use.
Click to expand...

For now, PWR is a two-year experiment. So, unless it becomes permanent, there is no sense considering changing the conference playoff format.
 
Re: Bracketology 1.1 - before the conference tournaments. Don't be upset

Sir Nubs said:
1-1 is better than 0-1, which is what would have happened had the NCHA not used this format. It is designed to protect the higher seeds from being upset in a one off.
Click to expand...

The problem with this logic is that the conference tournament isn't over yet and the only thing that matters is the PWR once the tournaments are over. Remember, with only one exception, every team in the conference tournament gets eliminated eventually by losing.

Let's keep using Adrian as an example. The best case scenario for Adrian the rest of the NCHA tournament is they win two more games. The worst case scenario is they lose one more. The in-between scenario is they go 1-1.

Best case: Adrian's NCHA tournament record is 3-1. That's good and it will help their PWR! But it won't matter as much because they will have won the autobid anyway. It will only matter for seeding.

Worst case: Adrian's NCHA tournament record is 1-2. If that happens are they better off than if they just lost one game and were eliminated from the tournament? I doubt it.

In conclusion, I'm not at all convinced the two-game plus a mini game format helps bubble teams because it allows them the opportunity to lose more games in their conference tournaments.
 
Re: Bracketology 1.1 - before the conference tournaments. Don't be upset

Ed Trefzger said:
https://www.uscho.com/rankings/krach/d-iii-men/


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Quick glance, relatively similar but St. Norbert and Augsburg appear to be the big winners in comparison to the PWR. Augsburg jumps from 11 to 6 and St. Norbert from 5 to 3. Yes just two spots, but two very important spots over Oswego and Norwich who as of today, if you took the conference leaders would need at-larges. If St. Norbert needed an at large and all three of those teams lost, they've got a lot more breathing room with the KRACH than they do with the PWR.
 
Re: Bracketology 1.1 - before the conference tournaments. Don't be upset

KnightsOfTheRound said:
In conclusion, I'm not at all convinced the two-game plus a mini game format helps bubble teams because it allows them the opportunity to lose more games in their conference tournaments.
Click to expand...

The upside is that it also affords them the opportunity to win more games - If Adrian had not lost that Friday game they would have the opportunity to go 3-1 if they lost in the finals. That would boost them. It is a double edged sword, which a contender should take advantage of. They didn't, but they did live to play another day.
 
Re: Bracketology 1.1 - before the conference tournaments. Don't be upset

PrezdeJohnson09 said:
Quick glance, relatively similar but St. Norbert and Augsburg appear to be the big winners in comparison to the PWR. Augsburg jumps from 11 to 6 and St. Norbert from 5 to 3. Yes just two spots, but two very important spots over Oswego and Norwich who as of today, if you took the conference leaders would need at-larges. If St. Norbert needed an at large and all three of those teams lost, they've got a lot more breathing room with the KRACH than they do with the PWR.
Click to expand...

The various metrics all have their shortcomings, but here's how I'd rate them:

1. KRACH. The most thorough.

2. RPI. Not as thorough as the KRACH, but generally identical just the same.

3. PWR. The worst of the three. (Consider one H2H game trumping many COP, for example... There's too little comparative data in D-3 to choose this vehicle.)

Having said all of the above, any of them beats the snot out of the the moronic and secretive "RNK" construct.

We're seeing some progress in D-3, at long last.
 
Re: Bracketology 1.1 - before the conference tournaments. Don't be upset

See and as an old person I prefer the simplest method. W-T-L
 
Re: Bracketology 1.1 - before the conference tournaments. Don't be upset

Fishman'81 said:
The various metrics all have their shortcomings, but here's how I'd rate them:

1. KRACH. The most thorough.

2. RPI. Not as thorough as the KRACH, but generally identical just the same.

3. PWR. The worst of the three. (Consider one H2H game trumping many COP, for example... There's too little comparative data in D-3 to choose this vehicle.)

Having said all of the above, any of them beats the snot out of the the moronic and secretive "RNK" construct.

We're seeing some progress in D-3, at long last.
Click to expand...

The PWR and RPI ranking is exactly the same down through 26 spots. Does it really matter which one is better...? Seems to me to be enough games to make them statistical the same.
 
Re: Bracketology 1.1 - before the conference tournaments. Don't be upset

Russell Jaslow said:
The PWR and RPI ranking is exactly the same down through 26 spots. Does it really matter which one is better...? Seems to me to be enough games to make them statistical the same.
Click to expand...

With only COP and H2H added to RPI, and RPI used as the tie-breaker, it is almost guaranteed that the team with the higher RPI will win the pairwise comparison. I'm not sure how it works in DI, but for DIII you might just as well stick with RPI.
 
Re: Bracketology 1.1 - before the conference tournaments. Don't be upset

NUProf said:
With only COP and H2H added to RPI, and RPI used as the tie-breaker, it is almost guaranteed that the team with the higher RPI will win the pairwise comparison. I'm not sure how it works in DI, but for DIII you might just as well stick with RPI.
Click to expand...

I agree. And, having compared the results of the two metrics for years in D-1, I have rarely discovered any significant discrepancy between the two (as Russ noted below).

But I still prefer the... Never mind. :p
 
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Re: Bracketology 1.1 - before the conference tournaments. Don't be upset

Latest bracket:

First Round
9 Augsburg @ 5 St. Norbert
12 Pymouth State @ 6 UMass Boston
11 Utica @ 7 Hobart
10 Salve Regina @ 8 Trinity

Quarterfinals
Augsburg/St. Norbert @ 1 UW-Stevens Point
Salve Regina/Trinity @ 2 Geneseo
Utica/Hobart @ 3 Norwich
Plymouth State/UMass Boston @ 4 Oswego

As far as setting up the semifnals, 1 gets lined up with 4, and 2 with 3. So the winner of the Stevens Point Regional will face the winner of the Oswego Regional, while the winner of the Geneseo Regional will meet the winner of the Norwich Regional.
Click to expand...
 
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