Boston University Part IV: Off-Season or New Season?

[slurpees]

Re: Boston University Part IV: Off-Season or New Season?

With all the buzz about "we might still get in if this or that happens," I just wonder if it isn't somewhat distracting.

Please forgive me for what I'm about to say.

How stupid are you? The "we might still get in if this or that happens" occurred AFTER we lost to NU. There were no games for them to be distracted in by the this and that! There was no Pairwise Predictor up while we were still playing games! So in your little scenario of BU players sitting in their rooms playing with Pairwise scenarios instead of focusing on the games, THAT'S NOT POSSIBLE! We controlled our own destiny up until the final loss to NU, and Pairwise was irrelevant to simple wins. There was no buzz at all about "we might still get in if this or that happens" before we lost to NU. What about this can't you get?

 

[Federal League]

Re: Boston University Part IV: Off-Season or New Season?

Please forgive me for what I'm about to say.

How stupid are you? The "we might still get in if this or that happens" occurred AFTER we lost to NU. There were no games for them to be distracted in by the this and that! There was no Pairwise Predictor up while we were still playing games! So in your little scenario of BU players sitting in their rooms playing with Pairwise scenarios instead of focusing on the games, THAT'S NOT POSSIBLE! We controlled our own destiny up until the final loss to NU, and Pairwise was irrelevant to simple wins. There was no buzz at all about "we might still get in if this or that happens" before we lost to NU. What about this can't you get?

All of this. chickod, seriously, just give a rest. Your argument is not only illogical, but also impossible.

 

[yankeefn01]

Re: Boston University Part IV: Off-Season or New Season?

Please forgive me for what I'm about to say.

How stupid are you? The "we might still get in if this or that happens" occurred AFTER we lost to NU. There were no games for them to be distracted in by the this and that! There was no Pairwise Predictor up while we were still playing games! So in your little scenario of BU players sitting in their rooms playing with Pairwise scenarios instead of focusing on the games, THAT'S NOT POSSIBLE! We controlled our own destiny up until the final loss to NU, and Pairwise was irrelevant to simple wins. There was no buzz at all about "we might still get in if this or that happens" before we lost to NU. What about this can't you get?

All of this. chickod, seriously, just give a rest. Your argument is not only illogical, but also impossible.

so much hate.... it must be the offseason.

 

[slurpees]

Re: Boston University Part IV: Off-Season or New Season?

so much hate.... it must be the offseason.

i felt really bad writing that, i dont like arguing with fellow fans of my team. there is a lot to be criticized and questioned about this season and where we stand, but if we're going to do it, and i we're going to criticize things that already occurred, get the facts right, and don't draw conclusions on the personalities and drive of the players based on things that are 100% inaccurate.

 

[srsterrier]

Re: Boston University Part IV: Off-Season or New Season?

Chickod, I think some on this board would answer your question about what is needed to get the maximum out of these players by saying, "a new coaching staff." And leaving aside the timing of all this PWR math, I doubt the players pay much attention to this board anyway. If they do, they probably see what anyone who is objective sees: a passionate and knowledgable fan base. The kind of fans who, frustrated as they are, were still hoping against hope that that their team would somehow sneak into the tournament. If that had any impact at all on the players, it would have been positive.

 

[wtbu60]

Re: Boston University Part IV: Off-Season or New Season?

Whether or not it’s attributable to Jack Parker, BU’s downward trend in men’s hockey didn’t just start after April 2009. Maybe what makes it more exasperating for BU fans is that since 1997 BU has been dominated by its main rival when it comes to Hockey East championships.

Since BU won the 1997 Hockey East tournament championship with a 4-2 win over UNH, BU has won two Hockey East tournament championships – in 2006 and 2009. They’ve played in the HE championship game only one other time since 1997, losing 1-0 to UNH in overtime in 2003. Boston College is 8-2 in HE championship games during that same time span and has won three HE tournament championships since 2007.

So, while the Terriers became known for peaking in early February when BU used to dominate the other area teams in the Beanpot tournament, the Eagles have become famous for peaking when it counts on the national stage. This season, BU peaked in October. BC now has a decent chance to win its third national championship in four seasons, while BU might be hoping that the NCAA would create hockey's version of basketball's post-season NIT for this season.

For comparison, consider the Ohio State-Michigan football rivalry which Ohio State has thoroughly dominated during the past decade. From 1988 through 2000, Michigan was 10-2-1 against Oho State. From 2001 through 2010, Michigan was 1-9 against its main rival and has lost eight straight while Ohio State has become a major player on the national scene, having played in three BCS championship games and winning one. (Michigan fans can insert their Maurice Clarett, Terrelle Pryor and Jim Tressel jokes and comments here.)

I don’t know whether the results of BU’s 2010-11 season can be attributed mainly to having no real leaders, with a sophomore and four freshmen as five of its top seven scorers, and just one senior who made any significant contributions (as its top goal scorer, but only its ninth leading scorer.) Outside of its 4-8 record against its local rivals, BC, Northeastern and Harvard, BU was 15-4-8 against everyone else this season. Only ten teams in Division One had fewer losses than BU. So you can’t say that BU was terrible. (Have to give credit to that other BU winter sports team that had only one senior contributing. For about 30 minutes on Friday night that BU team looked like it had a chance to stun the nation with what could have been as much of a miracle win for BU as the 2009 hockey championship. And congratulations to your women's hockey team for getting to the NCAA championship game.)

But from the perspective of this fan of BU’s main rival, while the Terriers had a fantatstic 2008-09 season that no NCAA men's hockey team ever may duplicate, BU just doesn’t seem like serious competition for national respect (or even Hockey East respect) any more. Could that be why BU fans, like Michigan football fans have been clamoring for a coaching change? Just be careful what you wish for. Hockey’s equivalent of Rich Rodriguez could arrive at Agganis Arena and really damage your program.

 

[srsterrier]

Whether or not it’s attributable to Jack Parker, BU’s downward trend in men’s hockey didn’t just start after April 2009. Maybe what makes it more exasperating for BU fans is that since 1997 BU has been dominated by its main rival when it comes to Hockey East championships.

Since BU won the 1997 Hockey East tournament championship with a 4-2 win over UNH, BU has won two Hockey East tournament championships – in 2006 and 2009. They’ve played in the HE championship game only one other time since 1997, losing 1-0 to UNH in overtime in 2003. Boston College is 8-2 in HE championship games during that same time span and has won three HE tournament championships since 2007.

So, while the Terriers became known for peaking in early February when BU used to dominate the other area teams in the Beanpot tournament, the Eagles have become famous for peaking when it counts on the national stage. This season, BU peaked in October. BC now has a decent chance to win its third national championship in four seasons, while BU might be hoping that the NCAA would create hockey's version of basketball's post-season NIT for this season.

For comparison, consider the Ohio State-Michigan football rivalry which Ohio State has thoroughly dominated during the past decade. From 1988 through 2000, Michigan was 10-2-1 against Oho State. From 2001 through 2010, Michigan was 1-9 against its main rival and has lost eight straight while Ohio State has become a major player on the national scene, having played in three BCS championship games and winning one. (Michigan fans can insert their Maurice Clarett, Terrelle Pryor and Jim Tressel jokes and comments here.)

I don’t know whether the results of BU’s 2010-11 season can be attributed mainly to having no real leaders, with a sophomore and four freshmen as five of its top seven scorers, and just one senior who made any significant contributions (as its top goal scorer, but only its ninth leading scorer.) Outside of its 4-8 record against its local rivals, BC, Northeastern and Harvard, BU was 15-4-8 against everyone else this season. Only ten teams in Division One had fewer losses than BU. So you can’t say that BU was terrible. (Have to give credit to that other BU winter sports team that had only one senior contributing. For about 30 minutes on Friday night that BU team looked like it had a chance to stun the nation with what could have been as much of a miracle win for BU as the 2009 hockey championship. And congratulations to your women's hockey team for getting to the NCAA championship game.)

But from the perspective of this fan of BU’s main rival, while the Terriers had a fantatstic 2008-09 season that no NCAA men's hockey team ever may duplicate, BU just doesn’t seem like serious competition for national respect (or even Hockey East respect) any more. Could that be why BU fans, like Michigan football fans have been clamoring for a coaching change? Just be careful what you wish for. Hockey’s equivalent of Rich Rodriguez could arrive at Agganis Arena and really damage your program.

Wow ... You don't think BU's problems started after 2009? They started before that? How did you ever come up with such a brilliant analysis?

 

[buoldtimer]

Re: Boston University Part IV: Off-Season or New Season?

Wow ... You don't think BU's problems started after 2009? They started before that? How did you ever come up with such a brilliant analysis?

This person must be the ghost of Lennie Briscoe from "Law & Order". He cracked the case.

 

[bantam75]

Re: Boston University Part IV: Off-Season or New Season?

it is a deserving end to an underwhelming season.

Amen Limey. Just caught up on the "conversation" since late Thursday. Before Thursday, Chickod, I was with you, but now I think you have gone off the deep end.

October's start was fool's gold and the losses to RPI, Brown and Harvard were what this team was all about this year (or NOT about). Plus the tie at home with Vermont.

 

[BigRedTerrier]

Re: Boston University Part IV: Off-Season or New Season?

October's start was fool's gold and the losses to RPI, Brown and Harvard were what this team was all about this year (or NOT about). Plus the tie at home with Vermont.

Agreed with that...although I think it's crazy that (as someone said either here or on a related thread) had BU simply beat RPI, they would've been at like 12th in the PWR. If that's true, it's ridic that just 1 OOC game can carry that much weight

 

[SteveF]

Re: Boston University Part IV: Off-Season or New Season?

will gladly trade another down year for MIH if WIH can win that national championship.

i would have too

 

[Bumbles]

Re: Boston University Part IV: Off-Season or New Season?

i would have too

All for naught , womp womp.

 

[slurpees]

Re: Boston University Part IV: Off-Season or New Season?

Agreed with that...although I think it's crazy that (as someone said either here or on a related thread) had BU simply beat RPI, they would've been at like 12th in the PWR. If that's true, it's ridic that just 1 OOC game can carry that much weight

We'd be 11th had we beaten rpi and likely playing in one of manchester or bridgeport. The point to that was to show the incredibly fluid nature of the PWR and underscore the point i was making that would everyone here feel any different about the team today because we beat rpi back in december and the rest of the season played out the exact same way? I imagine there would be skepticism still. Would everyone be calling for Parker's head right now and predicting the fall of the program into the depths of the middle of Hockey East? That I have more trouble believing.

 

[mookie1995]

Re: Boston University Part IV: Off-Season or New Season?

We'd be 11th had we beaten rpi and likely playing in one of manchester or bridgeport. The point to that was to show the incredibly fluid nature of the PWR and underscore the point i was making that would everyone here feel any different about the team today because we beat rpi back in december and the rest of the season played out the exact same way? I imagine there would be skepticism still. Would everyone be calling for Parker's head right now and predicting the fall of the program into the depths of the middle of Hockey East? That I have more trouble believing.

if they got smoked this coming weekend in another "one and done". yes, no question.

i've already typed what my yearly expectations are for bu hockey.

 

[BigRedTerrier]

Re: Boston University Part IV: Off-Season or New Season?

For me it just shows what a joke the PWRs are when 1 game can hold that much weight. I'm not arguing that BU deserved to be in the tourney...more that had BU won that game, no WAY they'd be the 11th best team in hockey at the end of the season. I always knew OOC games were important, but man, they should play those games like playoff games is this is the difference a win can make.

So...an extreme scenario...what if a team wasn't to play any OOC games? Or, anotherwords, is a team better off not playing an OOC game at all, as opposed to losing the game?

 

[DaveStPaul]

Re: Boston University Part IV: Off-Season or New Season?

Whether or not it’s attributable . . .

wtbu, your post covered things we've been going over a while now. You caught some flack because people are frustrated. But your post was thoughtful, and respectful, and that's appreciated.

 

[DaveStPaul]

Re: Boston University Part IV: Off-Season or New Season?

For me it just shows what a joke the PWRs are when 1 game can hold that much weight. I'm not arguing that BU deserved to be in the tourney...more that had BU won that game, no WAY they'd be the 11th best team in hockey at the end of the season. I always knew OOC games were important, but man, they should play those games like playoff games is this is the difference a win can make.

You can't get caught up thinking that way. Not just because you can spin yourself around indefinitely, but because it's wrong. Any of those ranking systems is like any other way to look at something.

It's no different than individual games. A kicker misses a field goal at the end of a football game, and people go, "I can't believe all that time and effort gets decided on one little play!" But games aren't won on one play. There are dozens of plays you could dissect from a game that didn't work out. It's the total output that matters. You might as well get just as worked up over a missed field goal in the 1st quarter. They're the same three points. They're in the same game. Right? That's what your argument is doing. It's looking, theoretically, at an individual play from the middle of a game, and then saying, "Keeping score is a terrible way to pick winners. Look how much one little play skews the outcome!"

That's just the theoretical side. But there's an actual side, because we played RPI this year! You say "the system is a joke when one game can hold that much weight." C'mon. BU and RPI actually played each other this year, and RPI won. End of the year, they're both near the cut-off for the national tourney, you've got a pretty clear indicator of who should go! But you're going (this is good-natured ) in a Poindexter voice, "If you study the power ratings, you'll see an unreasonable jump in BU's national ranking based on one single game from the previous autumn." That's just another way of saying: The team that got in over us should have, because we actually played this year, and they beat us.

 

[BigRedTerrier]

Re: Boston University Part IV: Off-Season or New Season?

I def understand that and I'm not pointing at RPI to say "Oh if only we had won this game...this is the reason why we're not playing right now." Obviously there were many chances...Harvard...VT...NU.

My point is more that one would want (or I guess I would want) a ranking system that isn't swayed so much by the result of 1 game. It would be one thing if the decision was between RPI and BU and a BU win gets them to 15 and in the tourney and a loss puts them at 16 and out. No, we're talking a difference between 17 and 11...the difference between being out of the tourney, or a 3 seed in a bracket!

So since an OOC loss hurts so much...why even play OOC games? This is just a thought experiment...I'm not suggesting it as a reality. But more for the people who know how to run these numbers...does a team end up better off actually playing OOC games and losing, than not playing them at all?

P.S. Then again..I suppose it's still good in that it's out in the open and not done in a back room over some scotch and cigars with darts

 

[DaveStPaul]

Re: Boston University Part IV: Off-Season or New Season?

I def understand that and I'm not pointing at RPI to say "Oh if only we had won this game...this is the reason why we're not playing right now." Obviously there were many chances...Harvard...VT...NU.

My point is more that one would want (or I guess I would want) a ranking system that isn't swayed so much by the result of 1 game. It would be one thing if the decision was between RPI and BU and a BU win gets them to 15 and in the tourney and a loss puts them at 16 and out. No, we're talking a difference between 17 and 11...the difference between being out of the tourney, or a 3 seed in a bracket!

So since an OOC loss hurts so much...why even play OOC games? This is just a thought experiment...I'm not suggesting it as a reality. But more for the people who know how to run these numbers...does a team end up better off actually playing OOC games and losing, than not playing them at all?

P.S. Then again..I suppose it's still good in that it's out in the open and not done in a back room over some scotch and cigars with darts

Ah, you're right, I missed the specifics of your original post. That is pretty amazing there's a way we get ranked 11th. Maybe this is why Florida State always plays Louisiana-Monroe (or whoever) each year!

 

[mookie1995]

Re: Boston University Part IV: Off-Season or New Season?

I like scotch
I like cigars

I take offense to this characterization!!