Boston University 2010-11 Part III - Is That So Much To Ask?

[WildShawn]

Re: Boston University 2010-11 Part III - Is That So Much To Ask?

I think I agree with this this. The way the PWR works, it's almost like the 7 OOC games are more important than the 27 league games. Something about that just isn't right. Vermont finishing 8th in HE last year and still making it as an at-large is a perfect example. I don't think there was anyone who follows HE who thought UVM was a better team than BU, Maine or UML last year.

I don't know, Vermont finished 8th, but were only 3 points (< 2 games) out of 3rd place. The league was super tight last year. Its a much different story this year. That UVM team was a solid team with a lot of Frozen Four players back from the previous year.

 

[WildShawn]

Re: Boston University 2010-11 Part III - Is That So Much To Ask?

I have no idea... I didn't look at UNH's OOC schedule... but UNH is ahead of MC in hockey east, so if UNH has some quality wins OOC, then yes, I think UNH should have a better case for making the NCAA given Merrimacks OOC schedule. (if the cutoff were at the point where UNH is sitting). Again, it would come down to if you think a string of wins aggainst terrible opponents should be more or less valuable than a mix of quality wins, ties and "good" and "bad" losses.

UNH was bad out of conference, and even IN the conference doesn't have a good win since November (unless you count Maine as 'good', I don't). They beat Miami at Miami, the only good non-con win (Winning AT Cornell would usually be good, but they're awful this year), they tied Michigan (a good tie in a game they dominated but Hunwick was unreal), tied Brown (played awful but chipped in 2 goals in the last 2 minutes to salvage a tie), lost to StLaw in OT at home, and lost to Dartmouth.

 

[ericredaxe]

Re: Boston University 2010-11 Part III - Is That So Much To Ask?

It doesn't happen often, but the one thing that irks me when it comes to PWR is when a team that finishes behind in the standings and even eliminated in the playoffs before the other team, they still make the tourney over that team. Now I understand there are unbalanced league schedules in the wcha and ccha, but I've always liked the idea of leaving the last couple at large bids up to the committee--to add some human element.

This is what I'm really getting at.. particularly in a conference with a balanced schedule like Hockey East. For it to happen, the team behind in the standings that makes the NCAA, should have to have a **** strong OOC record.

As far as BU goes, for NCAA purposes, we would be better off finishing 4th in Hockey East, than we would be finishing 1st.... and something just seems wrong about that.

 

[ericredaxe]

Re: Boston University 2010-11 Part III - Is That So Much To Ask?

OK. You want to add weight to conference finish, regardless of the quality of opponents beaten in the conference to get there.

Well, I dont know that I want to add it to a formula, but I do think that a team that finishes higher in their conference, did better in their conference.

But now you have to explain why BU losing to 'sludge level opponents' RPI (5th place ECAC) and Brown (9th place ECAC) is better than MC beating RIT (1st place AHA) and Niagara (5th place AHA). Remember... conference finish has more weight than quality of conference opponents, so I'd say MC has the advantage over BU against the 'sludge'
BU also lost to Harvard (12th place ECAC). Merrimack beat Harvard. Another 'sludge' win for MC.

Winning is always better than losing, regardless the opponent in my book, but I'd love to see your formula.

Well, Renselear is a ranked team, so I wouldn't really say that is a "bad" loss... so what the debate comes down to, is this... are you better off having 6 wins against, Alabama, Army, UConn etc etc, or wins against ranked teams like Wisconsin and Notre Dame, a win against Harvard (we beat them too once) along with a couple of ties, and losses (To ranked and unranked teams).

Again, shame on us for losing last Monday, but even if we did win, we are still on the outside looking in right now.

 

[Federal League]

Re: Boston University 2010-11 Part III - Is That So Much To Ask?

I don't know, Vermont finished 8th, but were only 3 points (< 2 games) out of 3rd place. The league was super tight last year. Its a much different story this year. That UVM team was a solid team with a lot of Frozen Four players back from the previous year.

I get that there wasn't much separation from third to eighth, but in my opinion, BU, Maine and UML were all better in conference play and better overall than UVM, and not just because they finished higher in the standings.

UNH was bad out of conference, and even IN the conference doesn't have a good win since November (unless you count Maine as 'good', I don't). They beat Miami at Miami, the only good non-con win (Winning AT Cornell would usually be good, but they're awful this year), they tied Michigan (a good tie in a game they dominated but Hunwick was unreal), tied Brown (played awful but chipped in 2 goals in the last 2 minutes to salvage a tie), lost to StLaw in OT at home, and lost to Dartmouth.

I don't think being third in the ECAC and being a TUC qualifies as awful, but maybe that's just me.

This is what I'm really getting at.. particularly in a conference with a balanced schedule like Hockey East. For it to happen, the team behind in the standings that makes the NCAA, should have to have a **** strong OOC record.

As far as BU goes, for NCAA purposes, we would be better off finishing 4th in Hockey East, than we would be finishing 1st.... and something just seems wrong about that.

Similarly, it's possible with the way the PWR works for a loss to help a team more than a win come conference tourney time. I remember there being a situation like this in the WCHA last year or the year before. In one of the Final Five games, some team would've been better off losing because it would've resulted in the would-be winning team becoming a TUC, and because the would-be losing team had already swept the season series from the would-be winning team, they would've gained extra wins against TUCs and moved up. I think the would-be losing team ended up winning and making the tournament anyway, so it was a non-issue, but I remember reading a lot of stuff leading up to that game about how absurd it was that losing would actually help them more than winning.

 

[WildShawn]

Re: Boston University 2010-11 Part III - Is That So Much To Ask?

I don't think being third in the ECAC and being a TUC qualifies as awful, but maybe that's just me.

I didn't realize that they had put a good 2nd half together, thanks for pointing that out. Maybe thats one of the things keeping us even near the top 10 in PWR?
I stopped paying attention to them in December when they were sub .500 and dismissed them as a non TUC

 

[pirate]

Re: Boston University 2010-11 Part III - Is That So Much To Ask?

Assuming they have to win HE to get in, and including last weekend, how many games in a row do the Terriers need to win to qualify for the NCAAs? 10 in a row?

 

[mookie1995]

Re: Boston University 2010-11 Part III - Is That So Much To Ask?

Assuming they have to win HE to get in, and including last weekend, how many games in a row do the Terriers need to win to qualify for the NCAAs? 10 in a row?

that 10 would get them HE title and all... if they win out and lose the final i'd like to guess that 23-10-7 gets them in, but if they lose next weekend or to nu in two - they would probably be required to have that three game streak (last qf game, semi, then final) to make it.

 

[Rogie21]

Re: Boston University 2010-11 Part III - Is That So Much To Ask?

Brian Strait was called up by the Penguins and makes his NHL debut tonight vs. the Caps on Versus. It'll make 8 members of the 2009 NCAA champs to play in the NHL.

 

[FiveHole12]

Re: Boston University 2010-11 Part III - Is That So Much To Ask?

Well, I dont know that I want to add it to a formula, but I do think that a team that finishes higher in their conference, did better in their conference.

That's open for debate.
If team A finishes higher in conference than team B, are they better than team B if:
1. Team A went 3-5-4 against the top 5 conference teams and 10-0-1 vs bottom 5 teams
and...
2. Team B went 6-2-2 against the top 5 teams and 9-3-1 against the bottom 5?

That's exactly where BU (team A) and MC (team B) are right now.

BU has 4 remaining against bottom 5 teams, MC has 2 against top 5 and 2 against bottom 5.
If BU goes 4-0 and MC 2-2, BU finishes in 3rd place. But, let's say MC sweeps top 5 Maine and loses 2 to bottom 5 PC. BU would finish ahead of MC in the conference standings.

BU's final record is:
3-5-4 against the top 5
14-0-1 against the bottom 5

MC's final record is:
8-2-2 against the top 5
9-5-1 against the bottom 5

BU gets the better finish by beating up on bottom 5 teams with a current combined record of 25-58-22.
MC winds up 2 points behind BU by beating the top 5 (55-28-16) and missing 1 win against a cellar dweller.

Who's the better team? If you want to argue that BU is, that's fine. I happen to disagree and argue that MC is because they were able to consistently beat the better teams. I think that PWR agrees.

 

[pirate]

Re: Boston University 2010-11 Part III - Is That So Much To Ask?

that 10 would get them HE title and all... if they win out and lose the final i'd like to guess that 23-10-7 gets them in, but if they lose next weekend or to nu in two - they would probably be required to have that three game streak (last qf game, semi, then final) to make it.

I don't see a 10 game streak out of this year's squad...would we be better off losing 1 this weekend and beating all of the higher ranked teams (meaning higher than UVM)?

We've seen our share of late season runs that end in the HE semis, 1 game away from making it in...that is my prediction as of now...they'll play well enough to be in if they win the semis but lose 2-1 and the only thing to look forward to will be how Bomber sums it up in his sig.

 

[mpereira]

Re: Boston University 2010-11 Part III - Is That So Much To Ask?

I don't see a 10 game streak out of this year's squad...would we be better off losing 1 this weekend and beating all of the higher ranked teams (meaning higher than UVM)?

We've seen our share of late season runs that end in the HE semis, 1 game away from making it in...that is my prediction as of now...they'll play well enough to be in if they win the semis but lose 2-1 and the only thing to look forward to will be how Bomber sums it up in his sig.

I don't think the team needs to win 10 in a row to get in. If they take care of business the rest of the way which would mean 4 points against UVM and 3 or more against NU than they should only need to get to the semis or the final to get in I would think. If they drop more than one game the rest of the way they are going to need to win the HE tournament to get in anyway which would be 3 in a row which I think this team could do. I like this team's chances against Maine,MC,or UNH at the garden...and im just going to pray to god we don't go down in the HE championship game to BC for a fifth loss in a season because that would just sting.

 

[slurpees]

I don't think the team needs to win 10 in a row to get in. If they take care of business the rest of the way which would mean 4 points against UVM and 3 or more against NU than they should only need to get to the semis or the final to get in I would think. If they drop more than one game the rest of the way they are going to need to win the HE tournament to get in anyway which would be 3 in a row which I think this team could do. I like this team's chances against Maine,MC,or UNH at the garden...and im just going to pray to god we don't go down in the HE championship game to BC for a fifth loss in a season because that would just sting.

in your scenario it all depends who we play in the qfs and if they're a tuc or not. Right now it looks like Maine is and would be and northeastern has an outside shot at it. If we don't play a tuc or if qf losses could knock them out that could mean any qf wins would be much less meaningful.

 

[mookie1995]

Re: Boston University 2010-11 Part III - Is That So Much To Ask?

Brian Strait was called up by the Penguins and makes his NHL debut tonight vs. the Caps on Versus. It'll make 8 members of the 2009 NCAA champs to play in the NHL.

pretty funny. first shift he's out for an offensive zone left circle faceoff at right d. caps win and throw it around.. the puck comes out and there is a penguin laying down just outside the blue line. announcers goes, "ah, a penguin is down.. that's brian strait. just got called up from wbs today making his nhl debut". 'as long as they don't call you needledikc!"

he's paired with DC's ben lovejoy.

 

[pirate]

Re: Boston University 2010-11 Part III - Is That So Much To Ask?

I don't think the team needs to win 10 in a row to get in. If they take care of business the rest of the way which would mean 4 points against UVM and 3 or more against NU than they should only need to get to the semis or the final to get in I would think. If they drop more than one game the rest of the way they are going to need to win the HE tournament to get in anyway which would be 3 in a row which I think this team could do. I like this team's chances against Maine,MC,or UNH at the garden...and im just going to pray to god we don't go down in the HE championship game to BC for a fifth loss in a season because that would just sting.

my original post on this was 'assuming we have to win HE to get in'...I guess we could lose every RS game left and still get in if we win HE but trying to gauge the probability that BU could make it...it is possible we get the exact right mix of teams the rest of the way and other teams lose early etc. but if we need to win out just to make it, that is 10 games straight. I'm not betting the ranch and dog on that one.

 

[ActionJoe]

Re: Boston University 2010-11 Part III - Is That So Much To Ask?

Ah yes...pairwise debates. Always fun and usually pointless. I say ignore all the what if scenarios and just hope for the Terriers to win their games because that's what is going to matter most right now. If BU keeps winning, there is no need to worry about the pair wise. We can worry about the pair wise the night before the Hockey East finals. (if they get that far)

 

[buoldtimer]

Re: Boston University 2010-11 Part III - Is That So Much To Ask?

pretty funny. first shift he's out for an offensive zone left circle faceoff at right d. caps win and throw it around.. the puck comes out and there is a penguin laying down just outside the blue line. announcers goes, "ah, a penguin is down.. that's brian strait. just got called up from wbs today making his nhl debut". 'as long as they don't call you needledikc!"

he's paired with DC's ben lovejoy.

That's BC's and DC's Ben Lovejoy.

 

[DaveStPaul]

Re: Boston University 2010-11 Part III - Is That So Much To Ask?

You know I, uh, I think I'd like four more points this weekend, Cliffy.

 

[pirate]

in your scenario it all depends who we play in the qfs and if they're a tuc or not. Right now it looks like Maine is and would be and northeastern has an outside shot at it. If we don't play a tuc or if qf losses could knock them out that could mean any qf wins would be much less meaningful.

So we are rooting for Maine and nu this weekend hoping that they are tuc's at year end? MC and UNH are anyway, do losses on their part hurt BU's chances? (SOS?)

 

[mookie1995]

So we are rooting for Maine and nu this weekend hoping that they are tuc's at year end? MC and UNH are anyway, do losses on their part hurt BU's chances? (SOS?)

All these HEA games, one loses, one wins. We play them all so it nets out.