Re: Boston College Women's Hockey, '13-'14: Can we please have a title this time? Ple
Right, but that would tend to reduce Boyles's save %, not increase it, so if anything that makes her score more impressive. Having said that, I can't believe UNH and BC were tied for shots on goal on Friday and I suspect the BC save % in reality was lower than it was reported.
I think Grant was saying that Boyles's stats are insane, not that the use of save % is insane, so I think we're all agreeing here.
Interesting point. I've been thinking about what turned our season around after Christmas and our improved defense is clearly a factor, which also makes it easy for Boyles to be good. I see a few other key things, though this might be just a function of the human desire for tidy narratives:
* Boyles has clearly got better and better as the year went on. The person who let in four goals from Syracuse is long gone. Maybe she wasn't sure she was playing until near the start of the year and wasn't fully conditioned until November? Whatever the reason, having a really solid goalie behind you lets everyone relax.
* Emily Pfalzer was injured at the start of the summer. She was skating from day 1, but she's been a real impact player since Christmas. Could be that her recovery took longer than we realised.
* Lauren Slebodnik leaving the second game against Cornell and being replaced by Paula Voorheis was almost certainly a contributor to our huge victory there, which was the first win against ranked opposition.
* The come-from-behind victory against Northeastern was the first victory from two goals down this season and was a big boost to self-belief (at least as far as the fans were concerned).
* Finally, the fact that the four games without Haley Skarupa were all comfortable wins was another big step forward: it showed the team could dominate without our star.
It could be, of course, that if Kayla Tutino hadn't been injured, BU would have had more gas in the tank in the second half, and we'd have split the BU series and been much closer in HE and would still be on the bubble for the tournament. And we wouldn't be having a conversation about how much better the second half has been, we'd still be having a conversation about how frustrating the whole season was. But I think there's been a genuine improvement in 2014 and it's interesting to speculate about what drove it.
Unfortunately, the folks at BC have a nasty habit of inflating their shots on net, and not counting many of those on their own tender.
Right, but that would tend to reduce Boyles's save %, not increase it, so if anything that makes her score more impressive. Having said that, I can't believe UNH and BC were tied for shots on goal on Friday and I suspect the BC save % in reality was lower than it was reported.
Actually, this fits with the research being done by the hockey analytics community. The quality of the skaters is better reflected by puck possession and shot attempts (including shots blocked and those that miss the net) than by goals allowed or save percentage. The evidence that some teams take higher quality shots on average than others is sufficiently weak that it's still debated whether the difference exists at all.
I think Grant was saying that Boyles's stats are insane, not that the use of save % is insane, so I think we're all agreeing here.
I suppose one thing that could hold back perception of Boyles is that unlike Schaus, she's never really HAD to steal games for BC. She has been on very good teams every year with good defense. BC's defense as well as overall team depth was not nearly as good during the Schaus years so it was totally on Molly to stonewall opposing teams while BC's lower lines were on the ice, waiting for Stack, Thunstrom etc. to strike.
Interesting point. I've been thinking about what turned our season around after Christmas and our improved defense is clearly a factor, which also makes it easy for Boyles to be good. I see a few other key things, though this might be just a function of the human desire for tidy narratives:
* Boyles has clearly got better and better as the year went on. The person who let in four goals from Syracuse is long gone. Maybe she wasn't sure she was playing until near the start of the year and wasn't fully conditioned until November? Whatever the reason, having a really solid goalie behind you lets everyone relax.
* Emily Pfalzer was injured at the start of the summer. She was skating from day 1, but she's been a real impact player since Christmas. Could be that her recovery took longer than we realised.
* Lauren Slebodnik leaving the second game against Cornell and being replaced by Paula Voorheis was almost certainly a contributor to our huge victory there, which was the first win against ranked opposition.
* The come-from-behind victory against Northeastern was the first victory from two goals down this season and was a big boost to self-belief (at least as far as the fans were concerned).
* Finally, the fact that the four games without Haley Skarupa were all comfortable wins was another big step forward: it showed the team could dominate without our star.
It could be, of course, that if Kayla Tutino hadn't been injured, BU would have had more gas in the tank in the second half, and we'd have split the BU series and been much closer in HE and would still be on the bubble for the tournament. And we wouldn't be having a conversation about how much better the second half has been, we'd still be having a conversation about how frustrating the whole season was. But I think there's been a genuine improvement in 2014 and it's interesting to speculate about what drove it.