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Biden v Dump 1: If not now, when? If not us, who?

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Interesting little toy assembled by NBC and Wasserman:
https://www.nbcnews.com/specials/swing-the-election/

Baseline by Race: [TABLE="border: 1, cellpadding: 1, width: 1200"]
[TR]
[TD]Demo Group[/TD]
[TD]Share of Vote[/TD]
[TD]Turnout Level[/TD]
[TD]Party Support[/TD]
[TD]Comments[/TD]
[TD]dx TO[/TD]
[TD]dx Party[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]College white[/TD]
[TD]31.1%[/TD]
[TD]72%[/TD]
[TD]54% D[/TD]
[TD]I think the turnout could be higher. ~71% in 2018, +12 from '14. I think it could be 80% this year. I also think it could skew up to 57% D. Every year since 04 Ds have made inroads. 48% in '16, 52% in '18. [/TD]
[TD]78%[/TD]
[TD]55% [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Noncoll White[/TD]
[TD]40.9%[/TD]
[TD]55%[/TD]
[TD]31% D[/TD]
[TD]This on the other hand is interesting. Ds have lost 0.5pt/yr since '12. Rs are +1/yr. Not sure how Wasserman got that down to 31% from 2019's 34%. But I could believe it. Turnout is where it's interesting. I think the racists are going to be extra motivated. Trended down from '04 to '12; '16 bumped to 57.8% from 57%. I don't think it's going to be down 2%. No way.[/TD]
[TD]58%[/TD]
[TD]32%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Black[/TD]
[TD]12.4%[/TD]
[TD]57%[/TD]
[TD]92% D[/TD]
[TD]'96-'12 saw black turnout increase by 13pts. Down 67% to 59.6% in '12 to '16. I don't think that trend continues. I think black turnout is closer to 62-64% this year. Black turnout at midterms jumped almost 11 pts '14 to '18. Party support is probably right.[/TD]
[TD]63%[/TD]
[TD]92%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Latino[/TD]
[TD]10%[/TD]
[TD]45%[/TD]
[TD]72% D[/TD]
[TD]TO fairly flat at 47% '96-'16. Jumped 13.5pts '14-'18!! 27% of His. voters were first-time voters in '18. This is really bad news for GOP. D% has stayed fairly flat though at 57% to 63%. Not sure I see 72% D in 2020. In 2018 though, Ds won 69-29. So who knows. [/TD]
[TD]50%[/TD]
[TD]69%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Asian & Others[/TD]
[TD]5.6%[/TD]
[TD]46%[/TD]
[TD]73% D[/TD]
[TD]Up every election since '00. 44% to 49.3%. Also up 13pts '14-'18. Trend absolutely continues, don't see it dropping 3pts; and certainly not to only 6pts above midterm level. No way. Also, 73% D would be a massive leap. 65% in 16/17 and basically flat since '08.[/TD]
[TD]51%[/TD]
[TD]68%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Baseline:
Biden Trump
307 231
52.1% 47.9%

dx:
Biden Trump
324 214
52.6% 47.4%
 
I'm shocked College Whites are still 46% R. Either that is "some college," not college grad, or there are a lot of really bad colleges out there.

I wonder what Tier 1 College Grad White is. It was 70% D or so when I was in school; it's probably over 80% now. Other than engineers and business as-sholes there just isn't anybody else who will go through a decent program with that level of cluelessness about the world.
 
Last edited:
Kepler said:
Atlantic is running an article on the Nazis' plan to bypass the election. Basically: (1) declare victory Election Night no matter what the facts, (2) immediately declare fraud everywhere the Dems have won where any Republican official can gum up the works in any way, (3) throw it to their allies in the courts who will rule on party lines, (4) massive blanket of propaganda calling for armed resistance to a "coup" constituted by Democrats bringing counter charges of fraud and moving to certify Dem electors.

Here are the elector certification laws in every state as of last election: https://www.nass.org/sites/default/f...tors-nov16.pdf
Click to expand...

I like how the nightmare scenario in all of these articles comes about because one party doesn't want to wait to count all votes.
 
French Rage said:
I like how the nightmare scenario in all of these articles comes about because one party doesn't want to wait to count all votes.
Click to expand...

Well, look. To me Dump winning legitimately is not the Nightmare Scenario, because if that happens we will have proven that democracy simply does not work -- the animals will smash it so we might as well have an autocracy and compete to enslave the knuck swine.

That would break my heart, of course, but I'm pretty well placed to stock my slave quarters with a few strong prairie backs to lift heavy things for me and a few nubile young southern beauties to, well, lift a heavy thing for me.

Can't fight City Hall. The irony of the Nazi coup is as the most intelligent and able will eventually wind up the slave owners that means liberals whipping conservatives, who aren't even good for picking cotton.
 
Oh.

“BREAKING: President Trump refused to commit to a peaceful transition of power should he lose the election in November, telling reporters when asked during a press briefing that he needs to “see what happens," sowing doubt about the security of mail-in ballots.

“We’re going to have to see what happens, you know, but I’ve been complaining very strongly about the ballots. The ballots are a disaster," Trump said. "Get rid of the ballots and you’ll have a very peaceful, there won't be a transfer, frankly, there will be a continuation."
 
Kepler said:
The Republicans aren't a political party any more, they're a religious cult and this is either their Waco or their Jonestown.
Click to expand...

I honestly couldn’t agree more. I have a relative who cancelled their Netflix subscription because of ‘Cuties.’ How can you be so f’ing stupid? Don Jr was in the area where I grew up tonight and apparently he brought that pressing issue up.
 
Deutsche Gopher Fan said:
Oh.

“BREAKING: President Trump refused to commit to a peaceful transition of power should he lose the election in November, telling reporters when asked during a press briefing that he needs to “see what happens," sowing doubt about the security of mail-in ballots.

“We’re going to have to see what happens, you know, but I’ve been complaining very strongly about the ballots. The ballots are a disaster," Trump said. "Get rid of the ballots and you’ll have a very peaceful, there won't be a transfer, frankly, there will be a continuation."
Click to expand...

I just saw the clip...at first I thought he was just trolling but he is dead serious. He is basically saying that there is no way he loses legitimately. Not hypothetically he is basically stating it as a fact. And with the way conservative twitter is either silent/defending him I think we are nearing zero hour.

The Press needs to stop asking him and start getting other GOPers on record about this. And if they dodge the question you ask it every time you see them until November. If this country is about to rip itself apart at the seams I want history to record the cowards who did nothing to stop it.

I am sure our (former) resident security expert has the vapors about this...
 
And McCarthy is threatening to get Pelosi ousted as Speaker...

fw86u.gif
 
Handyman said:
I just saw the clip...at first I thought he was just trolling but he is dead serious. He is basically saying that there is no way he loses legitimately. Not hypothetically he is basically stating it as a fact. And with the way conservative twitter is either silent/defending him I think we are nearing zero hour.

The Press needs to stop asking him and start getting other GOPers on record about this. And if they dodge the question you ask it every time you see them until November. If this country is about to rip itself apart at the seams I want history to record the cowards who did nothing to stop it.

I am sure our (former) resident security expert has the vapors about this...
Click to expand...

I agree the press needs to stop asking questions that give trump the platform he so desperately wants. What is the point?

I don't think the majority of people in this country who plan on voting for Biden are truly prepared for what is going to happen. Biden will need to win this election overwhelmingly for this not to be an utter disaster. trump might be persuaded to concede if the results are showing Biden winning 30+ states -- including all the ones expected, like CA or Hawaii plus a number Democrats have not won recently -- and well over 400 EC votes (I'm talking 1964, 1984 or 1988 totals), but even then I doubt there will be a scenario where he mouths words that resemble anything like labeling Biden as the winner.

This election -- at best -- is going to be battled in courts all over the country. And trump is no longer the only issue. Elected republicans at any level of government are not prepared to let this election go fairly and freely. Why would they suddenly stand up to the MAGAt cult on November 4th? They are gearing up for a fight, and I can only hope the Democrats are too.

As one of the true resident pessimists here, I actually expect things to be much worse than this. It is no longer beyond my imagination to think the the date November 3, 2020 will be remembered as one of the most consequential dates in the history of the country.
 
WeAreNDHockey said:
I agree the press needs to stop asking questions that give trump the platform he so desperately wants. What is the point?

I don't think the majority of people in this country who plan on voting for Biden are truly prepared for what is going to happen. Biden will need to win this election overwhelmingly for this not to be an utter disaster. trump might be persuaded to concede if the results are showing Biden winning 30+ states -- including all the ones expected, like CA or Hawaii plus a number Democrats have not won recently -- and well over 400 EC votes (I'm talking 1964, 1984 or 1988 totals), but even then I doubt there will be a scenario where he mouths words that resemble anything like labeling Biden as the winner.

This election -- at best -- is going to be battled in courts all over the country. And trump is no longer the only issue. Elected republicans at any level of government are not prepared to let this election go fairly and freely. Why would they suddenly stand up to the MAGAt cult on November 4th? They are gearing up for a fight, and I can only hope the Democrats are too.

As one of the true resident pessimists here, I actually expect things to be much worse than this. It is no longer beyond my imagination to think the the date November 3, 2020 will be remembered as one of the most consequential dates in the history of the country.
Click to expand...

I disagree...if he gets trounced he will double down it was rigged. If he thinks he cant lose a close one he will never accept he can lose badly.

But I agree with the rest...one way or the other November 3rd is going to be a landmark day. Either it is the day the country stopped itself from becoming every Democracy ever or it is the day we prove the experiment is a failure. This crap is going to make 2000 look like a bake sale.

But I am sure we are just clutching at pearls.
 
Perhaps your side sucks if people voting is so harmful

“Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody sent a letter to the FBI and the Florida Department of Law Enforcement saying that an investigation is warranted into whether a fund that is raising money to pay off the court debt of former felons there is violating state law.”
 
Deutsche Gopher Fan said:
Perhaps your side sucks if people voting is so harmful

“Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody sent a letter to the FBI and the Florida Department of Law Enforcement saying that an investigation is warranted into whether a fund that is raising money to pay off the court debt of former felons there is violating state law.”
Click to expand...

She needs to stop clutching at pearls...
 
Man the comments on Mitt's tweet (including mine) are not very kind to him. Methinks Mittens is going to be a name remembered in infamy when history tells it's tale...
 
Handyman said:
I disagree...if he gets trounced he will double down it was rigged. If he thinks he cant lose a close one he will never accept he can lose badly.
Click to expand...

Yes, trump is likely to claim fraud and a rigged election if he loses 270-268 or if he loses by 500 EC votes. But if the results tend to show an overwhelming win (400+ EC votes and winning every typically blue state and at least 3 or 4 that have tended towards the Nazis lately) you might see enough republicans in the House and Senate, as well as republican governors and secretaries of states more or less accept the results. If that happens, trump either leaves on his own, or is forcibly removed. In that scenario I sort of hope for the latter. They might have to taze the fat fvck.
 
A year ago I would have believed that...hell before the Pandemic happened I would have. But the GOP governors are all in...he could put up Mondale Numbers and they wont turn on him. Hell I bet we can list ones right now who under no circumstances will force the issue all you have to do is look at who screwed up the Pandemic on the GOP side the worst.

Kemp (GA)
DeWorthless (FL)
Doucey (AZ)
Holcolmb (IN)
Abbott (TX)
Noem (SD)
Reynolds (IA)

None of them will ever cross El Hefty. And you are not going to see the Governor of Idaho or Missouri (who just tested positive for COVID because the ******** wont wear a mask) or WV or Oklahoma do it either. They have 26 GOP Governors...and we can probably on 1 hand count the ones who will fight him.
 
Deutsche Gopher Fan said:
Perhaps your side sucks if people voting is so harmful

“Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody sent a letter to the FBI and the Florida Department of Law Enforcement saying that an investigation is warranted into whether a fund that is raising money to pay off the court debt of former felons there is violating state law.”
Click to expand...

How quickly will they tell her to pound sand?
 
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