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Biden v Dump 1: If not now, when? If not us, who?

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Because with the GOP losing states like VA, the Dems don't actually need OH anymore. They just need to hold on to places like PA/MI/WI. Sounds like the GOP ultimately needs to be concerned there.
 
French Rage said:
Because with the GOP losing states like VA, the Dems don't actually need OH anymore. They just need to hold on to places like PA/MI/WI. Sounds like the GOP ultimately needs to be concerned there.
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No, the GOP needs to worry (as I've already said) that TX will be battleground purple in 2024.
 
unofan said:
No it won't. Any projection based on requested ballots rather than returned ballots would be idiotic.

Every election there is a significant fraction of requested absentee ballots that are never returned. It only matters more this year because of the increased use of early/absentee votes.
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I mean zero sarcasm or hyperbole behind what I am saying...sometimes you are the poster that calms me the most. Even when I dont agree with you the amount of logic you use and your straightforward use of facts and logic really cut through a lot of the mess around here. I know I appreciate it as do many others :-)
 
unofan said:
No it won't. Any projection based on requested ballots rather than returned ballots would be idiotic.

Every election there is a significant fraction of requested absentee ballots that are never returned. It only matters more this year because of the increased use of early/absentee votes.
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Honest question, then, what do they do for states where ballots postmarked by election day arrive late? I imagine that if after election day we know the margin at that point, they could tell us the number of outstanding ballots and the projected return rate of those, without straight-up making a projection.
 
The Sicatoka said:
No, the GOP needs to worry (as I've already said) that TX will be battleground purple in 2024.
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They are worried that is why they tried to get ballots thrown out. They are barely holding on to the Texas House as is (with lots of women of color running this time so enthusiasm is high) and if they lose that I believe they lose gerrymandering power. That would be very bad going forward whenever it happens. Abbott being up for re-election in 2022 though is when they likely flip because no one seems to like him. The Dems hate him because he sucks at life and the GOPers hate him because he didnt bend over to the will of Trump on COVID.

Ohio was mentioned and my GF said she was just watching TV (no idea what but probably CNN or the something) and they were interviewing people in line to vote in Ohio and I guess the people said they waited til today cause they were undecided. When asked they were voting Dem now. That is what polling has shown the Undecideds and Independents were not splitting favorably at all towards Trump which was really the difference between him and Hillary in the Swing States.

So far in Minneapolis and the Burbs no one I know has had any issues outside one person who said someone was a "dick" at the polls. Friends in Minneapolis said it went smoothly (no cops or poll watchers) and the burbs almost never have any issues. (though Trumpers are getting pretty vocal in Plymouth of late...rich dicks) I am surprised so many waited, but I know many of them love the ceremony of voting on Election Day. Me if I have the time I just do it as soon as possible.
 
Markets having a (much needed) good day today...I gotta think at least part of that is that even the Wall Street Journal has Biden polling extremely well.
 
Handyman said:
I mean zero sarcasm or hyperbole behind what I am saying...sometimes you are the poster that calms me the most. Even when I dont agree with you the amount of logic you use and your straightforward use of facts and logic really cut through a lot of the mess around here. I know I appreciate it as do many others :-)
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Attorneys gonna attorney.
 
Handyman said:
Abbott being up for re-election in 2022 though is when they likely flip because no one seems to like him. The Dems hate him because he sucks at life and the GOPers hate him because he didnt bend over to the will of Trump on COVID.
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And his Lt Gov is completely fucking insane so no help there.
 
Apparently there have been 77k spoiled ballots in Michigan. I have no idea if those are included in the returned/accepted stats on the github site or not. If they are, then there’s still 400k out there today. If not, that’s down to around 330k outstanding.
 
Handyman said:
Abbott being up for re-election in 2022 though is when they likely flip because no one seems to like him. The Dems hate him because he sucks at life and the GOPers hate him because he didnt bend over to the will of Trump on COVID.
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I don't buy for a minute that Texas GOPers won't pull the lever for Abbott again, even if Trump loses and goes out kicking/screaming/lashing out at people who refused to 100% toe his line.
 
Handyman said:
I mean zero sarcasm or hyperbole behind what I am saying...sometimes you are the poster that calms me the most. Even when I dont agree with you the amount of logic you use and your straightforward use of facts and logic really cut through a lot of the mess around here. I know I appreciate it as do many others :-)
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I definitely do. Especially on a day like today where my anxiety is through the roof.
 
Handyman said:
I mean zero sarcasm or hyperbole behind what I am saying...sometimes you are the poster that calms me the most. Even when I dont agree with you the amount of logic you use and your straightforward use of facts and logic really cut through a lot of the mess around here. I know I appreciate it as do many others :-)
Click to expand...

unofan obviously paid attention to all of his law school education and not just the parts where they teach you about "billable hours." :) And I agree with what Handy posted unofan. Always lots of good insight, presented with a rational voice. I should be using you as a role model.

*eta* jeez, even when you just use keystrokes to make a winking eye emoji it doesn't show up? What gives? At any rate, pretend there is a winking eye emoji after the word hours.
 
FadeToBlack&Gold said:
I don't buy for a minute that Texas GOPers won't pull the lever for Abbott again, even if Trump loses and goes out kicking/screaming/lashing out at people who refused to 100% toe his line.
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It is more that I think the Texas GOP is going to try and primary him with someone like their Lt. Governor. I think Texas is just the latest place where the Rs are going to abandon any hope of even "Center-Right" and go full derp. Demographically there are a lot of people who trend Blue elsewhere but stay Red there but if they go full on Tom Cotton those demos leave the Republican Party.
 
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