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Biden v Dump 1: If not now, when? If not us, who?

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RaceBoarder said:
Kep hit on it above though: The suburban middle class will be the face of R 2.0. These people are full of contradiction between what they say and actual action. Sure, they say that they want to buy American and support small business. But they are the same people who will go into a store and talk to a salesman for an hour about a product, say "they'll think about it", then go home and buy the thing off Amazon for 7% cheaper. They are all about diversity.... Until an apartment building down the block (with longtime owners and no tenant turnover) has several units come up on the market in a short period of time and undervalue. Now that building has several minorities... Now Karen is against it in HER neighborhood.

These people can play both sides... They present one thing on socials but are completely different in real life. They are self aware of this and don't care.

This will be the face of the reformed party.
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This is a really interesting post. I don't know if I'm quite sour enough to say they don't care. I think they do care and do feel guilty about it, at some level, and that may inform their enthusiasm for things like slogans and bumper stickers and marches which feel like participation but risk and cost nothing.

But I am mostly speaking of the Democratic version of this type -- people who would never in a million years vote for a Republican. And yet who will vote down the local library bond because "it costs too much" and who will oppose zoning for public housing because "it attracts gangs."

I grew up and went to school with thousands of these people.
 
burd said:
And the four years since 2016 have exposed Trump like the underside of a rotten log. It's different, this year, IMO. (fingers still crossed)
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dunno.

if anything, those trumpets are thinking that the mess is caused by the swamp that wants tD removed so they can return to normal. they think tD is the only chance they have

mookie still has it 53/47 odds for a tD win again
 
RaceBoarder said:
Kep hit on it above though: The suburban middle class will be the face of R 2.0. These people are full of contradiction between what they say and actual action. Sure, they say that they want to buy American and support small business. But they are the same people who will go into a store and talk to a salesman for an hour about a product, say "they'll think about it", then go home and buy the thing off Amazon for 7% cheaper. They are all about diversity.... Until an apartment building down the block (with longtime owners and no tenant turnover) has several units come up on the market in a short period of time and undervalue. Now that building has several minorities... Now Karen is against it in HER neighborhood.

These people can play both sides... They present one thing on socials but are completely different in real life. They are self aware of this and don't care.

This will be the face of the reformed party.
Click to expand...
"Suburban" folks are a dying breed though. People 35 and younger are struggling to find good jobs, saddled with huge debt loads and aren't buying houses. The suburbs are going to trend older and older. Counting on some 40-50 year old Karens to rebuild the party isn't a long term path to success.

We could be heading to a similar point as post WW2, except this time the conservatives and plutes can't stem the tide by hiding behind a communist threat and shouting 'SOCIALISM!1!1!" The Cold War is long over and young adults look on Twitter and TikTok and Reddit and see that a) the rest of the world isn't as scary and b) the US is really bad at things.

I don't see how a party that is literally built on maintaining the plutocracy and building a Christian Taliban is going to appeal to a growing number of generations that have been screwed over by the plutocracy and the Christian Taliban and know they've been screwed over and who did it. The fundamental piece in sustaining the Republican Party was the white kids who grew older and more conservative because they wanted to protect the wealth they'd accumulated, and the Republicans have broken that cycle.
 
Kepler said:
This is a really interesting post. I don't know if I'm quite sour enough to say they don't care. I think they do care and do feel guilty about it, at some level, and that may inform their enthusiasm for things like slogans and bumper stickers and marches which feel like participation but risk and cost nothing.

But I am mostly speaking of the Democratic version of this type -- people who would never in a million years vote for a Republican. And yet who will vote down the local library bond because "it costs too much" and who will oppose zoning for public housing because "it attracts gangs."

I grew up and went to school with thousands of these people.
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I think you get this with white, suburban minorities in any area... My examples are of areas like Marinette Park in Chicago (the only area to be pro-Dump in 2016). You blend in with the majority, but know open direct opposition of them is social suicide...
 
Jimjamesak said:
"Suburban" folks are a dying breed though. People 35 and younger are struggling to find good jobs, saddled with huge debt loads and aren't buying houses. The suburbs are going to trend older and older. Counting on some 40-50 year old Karens to rebuild the party isn't a long term path to success.
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Suburbs have been growing steadily for the past decade. Explosions in states like CA, AZ, NM, UT, TX, VA, GA, and NC are being driven by suburbs with young people buying first homes.

Suburbs have stalled out and are greying in the Northeast and Midwest and in grossly overbuilt cities like SF and LA, but in the net pop gain states they are blowing up and they are very young.

Even though there are a huge number of young people without the jobs to handle their debt there are also a huge number of young people with jobs which more than handle their debt, who will create another big Middle Class wave once the government stops giving all their money to the rich. And those people love suburbs because they are convenient, have great schools, and are away from the increasingly white Poors.
 
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Kepler said:
Whoa. Those numbers are... wow. Joni Ernst down by 5? Biden up in IA by 5? Holy sheet. The Dumperor's debate really hurt him.
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Ernst has been down 3 for months, down 5 is within the MoE. Trump being down 5 when he's otherwise been up 3 screams outlier.
 
Kepler said:
Suburbs have been growing steadily for the past decade. Explosions in states like CA, AZ, NM, UT, TX, VA, GA, and NC are being driven by suburbs with young people buying first homes.

Suburbs have stalled out and are greying in the Northeast and Midwest and in grossly overbuilt cities like SF and LA, but in the net pop gain states they are blowing up and they are very young.

Even though there are a huge number of young people without the jobs to handle their debt there are also a huge number of young people with jobs which more than handle their debt, who will create another big Middle Class wave once the government stops giving all their money to the rich. And those people love suburbs because they are convenient, have great schools, and are away from the increasingly white Poors.
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But they're also not white, those communities are increasingly diverse as well. But it still doesn't change the realities with debt, racism, and health care, the three big issues the Republicans are on the wrong side of.
 
unofan said:
Ernst has been down 3 for months, down 5 is within the MoE. Trump being down 5 when he's otherwise been up 3 screams outlier.
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It most likely is but it is tough to say. It does seem to be in line with what is going on in other polls. Every poll showing Biden crushing cant be an outlier ;-)

If I had to guess it is actually Trump +1 in Iowa...which in and of itself should scare the bejesus out of him and Ernst.
 
Jimjamesak said:
But they're also not white, those communities are increasingly diverse as well. But it still doesn't change the realities with debt, racism, and health care, the three big issues the Republicans are on the wrong side of.
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The Republicans are going to come back as the party of fiscal conservatism. All those newly minted colorful suburbanites are going to LOVE that. Cut my taxes while cutting subsidies for public housing? GREAT! The hand that you hold is the hand that holds you down. They will probably do something about debt, for the right people. If you majored in STEM you'll get your debts repaid, not if you were in the arts. And they will put up the exact same race diversity messaging that a major corporation does. Happy United Colors of Beneton models beaming about their entrepeneurial spirit.

They will sell themselves like a Fortune 500 company. The levels of pandering and cynicism will set records even for them. They will reverse course from the party of white nationalism and go back to their tried and true camouflage as the party of opportunity and freedumb.

Meanwhile, on 4chan and in the pulpit, they will be assuring their brownshirts that this is all for show, and that n-gger money is as good as white money for building an Apartheid Gilead.
 
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Jimjamesak said:
"Suburban" folks are a dying breed though. People 35 and younger are struggling to find good jobs, saddled with huge debt loads and aren't buying houses. The suburbs are going to trend older and older. Counting on some 40-50 year old Karens to rebuild the party isn't a long term path to success.

We could be heading to a similar point as post WW2, except this time the conservatives and plutes can't stem the tide by hiding behind a communist threat and shouting 'SOCIALISM!1!1!" The Cold War is long over and young adults look on Twitter and TikTok and Reddit and see that a) the rest of the world isn't as scary and b) the US is really bad at things.

I don't see how a party that is literally built on maintaining the plutocracy and building a Christian Taliban is going to appeal to a growing number of generations that have been screwed over by the plutocracy and the Christian Taliban and know they've been screwed over and who did it. The fundamental piece in sustaining the Republican Party was the white kids who grew older and more conservative because they wanted to protect the wealth they'd accumulated, and the Republicans have broken that cycle.
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Their best hope is to lay off the social con stuff, moderate their position on a national healthcare system, and take a quieter (but still firm) stance against amnesty and large numbers of immigrants/refugees. They need to find a way to retake the "fiscal conservative" mantle and cast themselves as a check on the up-and-coming generation of socialist Dems who want gubmint to pay for everyone's four-year degrees and their first houses, and just generally become more like Western European conservatives.

EDIT: I would also make Senate term limits a near-term platform plank for a rebooted GOP.
 
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Handyman said:
It most likely is but it is tough to say. It does seem to be in line with what is going on in other polls. Every poll showing Biden crushing cant be an outlier ;-)

If I had to guess it is actually Trump +1 in Iowa...which in and of itself should scare the bejesus out of him and Ernst.
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He’s begging for Biden and Hillary to be arrested today. I think he thinks That If he tweets for it, billy will make it so
 
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