Biden v Dump 1: If not now, when? If not us, who?

[Kepler]

What makes you think any movement at all is needed? Goldman Sachs is publicly rooting for a full Dem sweep in November. That tells you all you need to know.

I suspect Goldman is actually rooting for Biden and a GOP Senate to create a logjam, so they can just continue business as usual.

A Dem sweep makes it harder to hide that everything is rigged. It's still possible, of course, but harder.

But even then, the people who use Goldman to enrich themselves can be happy under a Democratic regime, at least for a while. The gain of stability will be enough to balance the opportunity cost of lost pillaging. When the Dems restore progressive taxation they have many mechanisms to stall that machine, at least for long enough to literally take the money and run.

Goldman fully realizes that as lucrative as Nazism is for them it provokes the only type of extreme response that could actually injure their interests -- a genuine social democratic reform. Plus, they don't want the host to die, they want to leech off of it forever. Indeed, a healthy host will produce more blood.

So it's smart right now for the 1% to put its money on the Dems. They still own the GOP, they just have to purge the overtly white supremacist elements from it and restore it as a "fiscally conservative" Trojan Horse (privatize gain, socialize loss). And there are enough Dems compromised to keep the capitalist con going.

 

[Handyman]

Well I mean it isnt a coincidence that Wall Street is throwing money at Biden...they don't usually support Radical Leftist Stooges ;-)

 

[SJHovey]

Goldman understands the way the world works. To have power you need money. People with money, a) like their money, and b) like the power that comes with it. They don't want to give away or lose either. Anyone who thinks that is unique to one political creed or party has been repeatedly been disappointed in the past, and will continue to be disappointed in the future. Goldman knows that.

Joe and Chuck and Nancy will throw a few kewpie dolls at Kepler and others demanding revolution. Ten years from now they'll be talking about the Biden administration they same way they did about Obama's and Clinton's, reflecting on what might have been.

 

[Swansong]

Larger companies and financial institutions also crave stability and certainty - and Trump provides neither of those. A Biden presidency may not be particularly amenable to big business, but he is less prone to wild swings in opinion, moves, etc.

A moderately less favorable but infinitely more stable environment is probably what they're hoping for.

 

[Kepler]

I like how many of the comments in various places don't trust Rasmussen and suspect them of doing a landslide result now so they can do a more accurate closer one later on and then drive the storyline of Trump tightening the race.

That actually is their M.O.. Silver has actually quantified that the methodology Rasmussen uses will tend to show a "red shift" at the tail end. Basically, they sample an outsized group of conservatives who call themselves independents. These folks start out saying they are unaligned. But they always, like clockwork, come home to the GOP. That creates a false "trend" where it appear the GOP is gaining support at the end when all that is happening is lifelong conservatives are staying in exactly the same place but psychologically admit they are partisan only at the end.

And I fully expect that is happening underneath the data: Rasmussen's house effect is something like R+4. The terrifying thing for the GOP is despite that shift the topline number is moving blue. That means people are breaking for Biden EVEN MORE than Rasmussen's already dire numbers indicate.

It means Dump is f-cked. Whether undercard Republicans are too remains to be seen. We may actually see a lot of ticket splitting on the Right this time around as people are just fed up with Dump but still hook, line, and sinker fall for the GOP shtick.

 

[Kepler]

Well I mean it isnt a coincidence that Wall Street is throwing money at Biden...they don't usually support Radical Leftist Stooges ;-)

Wall Street throws money at whoever is gonna win. They are "buying access" (attempting bribery). If Lenin was up by 12, Goldman would be writing checks (and, unlike Bernie, Lenin would be cashing them which is one reason Lenin's revolution succeeded. Briefly.).

 

[French Rage]

My favorite reason for not believing polls is “I’ve never been asked to do a poll.” It is the ultimate example in choosing to believe anecdotal stories over statistics and data.

I like that. I've never been called in for jury duty. Thus I conclude courts do not exist.

 

[Kepler]

Goldman understands the way the world works. To have power you need money. People with money, a) like their money, and b) like the power that comes with it. They don't want to give away or lose either. Anyone who thinks that is unique to one political creed or party has been repeatedly been disappointed in the past, and will continue to be disappointed in the future. Goldman knows that.

Joe and Chuck and Nancy will throw a few kewpie dolls at Kepler and others demanding revolution. Ten years from now they'll be talking about the Biden administration they same way they did about Obama's and Clinton's, reflecting on what might have been.

There is an important part of the way the world works that you ignore.

(1) To have power you need money.

(2) People with money, a) like their money, and b) like the power that comes with it. They don't want to give away or lose either.

(3) But, while money is important, the owner of that money is arbitrary. The 1%er isn't the job creator, his money is.

(4) Therefore, you can bypass (2) by expropriating their money for yourself. Then you have the power and the money and the former (2) don't have either and don't matter.


Now, (4) is tricky. But we've done it before (1932) and we can do it again.

 

[RaceBoarder]

They're in bed with polluting industries, they can't go environment.

To be honest they have nowhere to go. I expect they will go hard, hardcore fiscal responsibility. It's a good ruse since they can drive down taxes (the Republican Santa Claus) which then bankrupts all social programs, education, and environmental protection. And their stooges can harrumpf about debt (while expanding military and law enforcement spending of course).

They will be praying for a major terrorist attack during the Biden administration so they can bleat about national security and being Tough. Their gorillas love that stuff, and frightened voters make bad choices.

The reboot will drop the obvious connection to big business.... They will align themselves with the everyday man's business...

They will play that card until the maintenance man making Minimum Wage +$0.50/hour is able to rehang the curtain around the control panel that was ripped down during a temper tantrum from the Orange Dude.... After the curtain is able to hide the controls, Big Business will be back running things and we have R 2.0... As mentioned above however, they will keep Evangelicals and the KKK crowd quiet and in the back...

 

[Russell Jaslow]

I suspect Goldman is actually rooting for Biden and a GOP Senate to create a logjam, so they can just continue business as usual.

This.

Although Hovey's answer is an interesting one and certainly could be the way Goldman is thinking, I have heard many times economists saying the best thing for an economy is for Washington to be deadlocked. This way, you can't pass any laws interfering with the economy, and the economy tends to not like interference of any sort. Thus, the economy can do what it wants.

 

[Kepler]

The reboot will drop the obvious connection to big business.... They will align themselves with the everyday man's business...

They will play that card until the maintenance man making Minimum Wage +$0.50/hour is able to rehang the curtain around the control panel that was ripped down during a temper tantrum from the Orange Dude.... After the curtain is able to hide the controls, Big Business will be back running things and we have R 2.0... As mentioned above however, they will keep Evangelicals and the KKK crowd quiet and in the back...

Yeah, that's probably more likely.

We all recognize that the GOP will keep all the white supremacists and Bible thumpers in the fold. That's 30 million cradle-to-grave guaranteed Conservative Plantation votes. They will just seat them in another room and close the door so they don't put the wind up nice, racially and religiously diverse, educated, gender-tolerant, middle class people in the suburbs who want their taxes to go down, their property values to go up, and their kids to go to a school without those disruptive Poors.

That was Reagan's Thimblerig and it was good enough for a 12-year run and the first and still greatest Heist.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

https://twitter.com/alpha1906/status/1313590148169252865

 

[Jimjamesak]

The reboot will drop the obvious connection to big business.... They will align themselves with the everyday man's business...

They will play that card until the maintenance man making Minimum Wage +$0.50/hour is able to rehang the curtain around the control panel that was ripped down during a temper tantrum from the Orange Dude.... After the curtain is able to hide the controls, Big Business will be back running things and we have R 2.0... As mentioned above however, they will keep Evangelicals and the KKK crowd quiet and in the back...

Unfortunately I don’t think that curtain is going back up. Social media and a huge leap in interconnectivity with the rest of the world has given too many Americans a view of the rest of the world.

 

[Swansong]

There's one thing we all need to keep in mind regarding polling data.

In 2016, October-ish, I was listening to an NRP discussion on polling and the election. They had the main players involved in the discussion. Even someone from Rasmussen. All predicted a Clinton win, some by a fairly large margin, based on their polling.

One of the pollsters, however, and I cannot remember which company he worked for, warned of something. In 2016, it was made extremely unpopular to admit that you were going to vote for Trump. Social media, news, everything, combined to publicly insult anyone who dared to think that Trump might be less awful than Hillary. This pollster warned that he wasn't sure how many of the "oh, sure I'll vote for Clinton" folks were only saying that because they were afraid to admit that they intended to vote for Trump. When pressed, he said he could not quantify it and ultimately stood by the data his company was releasing. After all, if a poll respondent says something, you need to document that. But his warning came to fruition a few weeks later when Trump won the election.

2020 is a very different environment. For all his warts, Joe Biden is not Hillary Clinton. COVID is a real thing, and popular opinion is that Trump is not managing it well. To many that were disgusted by Trump but despised Hillary, that dilemma is no longer present.

I really hope for a Biden win. Not because I embrace him, his party or anything like that, but because Trump has proven to be catastrophically and historically feckless, irresponsible and dangerous and Biden presents us with a much preferable situatation. But we'll see soon.

 

[burd]

There's one thing we all need to keep in mind regarding polling data.

In 2016, October-ish, I was listening to an NRP discussion on polling and the election. They had the main players involved in the discussion. Even someone from Rasmussen. All predicted a Clinton win, some by a fairly large margin, based on their polling.

One of the pollsters, however, and I cannot remember which company he worked for, warned of something. In 2016, it was made extremely unpopular to admit that you were going to vote for Trump. Social media, news, everything, combined to publicly insult anyone who dared to think that Trump might be less awful than Hillary. This pollster warned that he wasn't sure how many of the "oh, sure I'll vote for Clinton" folks were only saying that because they were afraid to admit that they intended to vote for Trump. When pressed, he said he could not quantify it and ultimately stood by the data his company was releasing. After all, if a poll respondent says something, you need to document that. But his warning came to fruition a few weeks later when Trump won the election.

2020 is a very different environment. For all his warts, Joe Biden is not Hillary Clinton. COVID is a real thing, and popular opinion is that Trump is not managing it well. To many that were disgusted by Trump but despised Hillary, that dilemma is no longer present.

I really hope for a Biden win. Not because I embrace him, his party or anything like that, but because Trump has proven to be catastrophically and historically feckless, irresponsible and dangerous and Biden presents us with a much preferable situatation. But we'll see soon.

And the four years since 2016 have exposed Trump like the underside of a rotten log. It's different, this year, IMO. (fingers still crossed)

 

[Handyman]

https://twitter.com/maddow/status/1313875613707644931

“At a focus group with Republican women in swing states who previously voted for Trump, none of them favored the idea of moving forward with a confirmation process before the election, and several said they were more likely to support Biden as a result.”

As for 2016...there is no silent Trumpers anymore. Even in suburbs like mine that are 80-90% Progressive the Trumpers make sure you know they are here.

 

[Handyman]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1313902968572465153

More bad news from Quinnipiac...

 

[Kepler]

And the four years since 2016 have exposed Trump like the underside of a rotten log.

This is a perfect simile.

 

[RaceBoarder]

Unfortunately I don’t think that curtain is going back up. Social media and a huge leap in interconnectivity with the rest of the world has given too many Americans a view of the rest of the world.

Kep hit on it above though: The suburban middle class will be the face of R 2.0. These people are full of contradiction between what they say and actual action. Sure, they say that they want to buy American and support small business. But they are the same people who will go into a store and talk to a salesman for an hour about a product, say "they'll think about it", then go home and buy the thing off Amazon for 7% cheaper. They are all about diversity.... Until an apartment building down the block (with longtime owners and no tenant turnover) has several units come up on the market in a short period of time and undervalue. Now that building has several minorities... Now Karen is against it in HER neighborhood.

These people can play both sides... They present one thing on socials but are completely different in real life. They are self aware of this and don't care.

This will be the face of the reformed party.

 

[SJHovey]

This.

Although Hovey's answer is an interesting one and certainly could be the way Goldman is thinking, I have heard many times economists saying the best thing for an economy is for Washington to be deadlocked. This way, you can't pass any laws interfering with the economy, and the economy tends to not like interference of any sort. Thus, the economy can do what it wants.

Well, my answer was basically parroting Goldman's reported comments.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/06/business/economy-election-blue-wave-goldman-sachs/index.html

Forbes thinks Goldman believes that single party rule leads to compromise, which is good for the economy, something that can't currently occur in divided government.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/sethco...why-goldman-sachs-is-optimistic/#155c421422c5