The Two-Decade Red State Murder Problem
Takeaways
- The murder rate in the 25 states that voted for Donald Trump has exceeded the murder rate in the 25 states that voted for Joe Biden in every year from 2000 to 2020.
- Over this 21-year span, this Red State murder gap has steadily widened from a low of 9% more per capita red state murders in 2003 and 2004 to 44% more per capita red state murders in 2019, before settling back to 43% in 2020.
- Altogether, the per capita Red State murder rate was 23% higher than the Blue State murder rate when all 21 years were combined.
- If Blue State murder rates were as high as Red State murder rates, Biden-voting states would have suffered over 45,000 more murders between 2000 and 2020.
- Even when murders in the largest cities in red states are removed, overall murder rates in Trump-voting states were 12% higher than Biden-voting states across this 21-year period and were higher in 18 of the 21 years observed.
I suppose I could have put this in the States thread.
By eleven o’clock the next day we were well upon our way to the old English capital. Holmes had been buried in the morning papers all the way down, but after we had passed the Hampshire border he threw them down and began to admire the scenery. It was an ideal spring day, a light blue sky, flecked with little fleecy white clouds drifting across from west to east. The sun was shining very brightly, and yet there was an exhilarating nip in the air, which set an edge to a man’s energy. All over the countryside, away to the rolling hills around Aldershot, the little red and grey roofs of the farm-steadings peeped out from amid the light green of the new foliage.
“Are they not fresh and beautiful?” I cried with all the enthusiasm of a man fresh from the fogs of Baker Street.
But Holmes shook his head gravely.
“Do you know, Watson,” said he, “that it is one of the curses of a mind with a turn like mine that I must look at everything with reference to my own special subject. You look at these scattered houses, and you are impressed by their beauty. I look at them, and the only thought which comes to me is a feeling of their isolation and of the impunity with which crime may be committed there.”
“Good heavens!” I cried. “Who would associate crime with these dear old homesteads?”
“They always fill me with a certain horror. It is my belief, Watson, founded upon my experience, that the lowest and vilest alleys in London do not present a more dreadful record of sin than does the smiling and beautiful countryside.”
“You horrify me!”
“But the reason is very obvious. The pressure of public opinion can do in the town what the law cannot accomplish. There is no lane so vile that the scream of a tortured child, or the thud of a drunkard’s blow, does not beget sympathy and indignation among the neighbours, and then the whole machinery of justice is ever so close that a word of complaint can set it going, and there is but a step between the crime and the dock. But look at these lonely houses, each in its own fields, filled for the most part with poor ignorant folk who know little of the law. Think of the deeds of hellish cruelty, the hidden wickedness which may go on, year in, year out, in such places, and none the wiser.
The Two-Decade Red State Murder Problem
Takeaways
- The murder rate in the 25 states that voted for Donald Trump has exceeded the murder rate in the 25 states that voted for Joe Biden in every year from 2000 to 2020.
- Over this 21-year span, this Red State murder gap has steadily widened from a low of 9% more per capita red state murders in 2003 and 2004 to 44% more per capita red state murders in 2019, before settling back to 43% in 2020.
- Altogether, the per capita Red State murder rate was 23% higher than the Blue State murder rate when all 21 years were combined.
- If Blue State murder rates were as high as Red State murder rates, Biden-voting states would have suffered over 45,000 more murders between 2000 and 2020.
- Even when murders in the largest cities in red states are removed, overall murder rates in Trump-voting states were 12% higher than Biden-voting states across this 21-year period and were higher in 18 of the 21 years observed.
I suppose I could have put this in the States thread.
Wasn't part of justification of the looser gun laws that it would make people safer? If that data is accurate, it's quite the opposite.
But that is part of their point- they worship the concept that they can murder people as a right. Just like drew buddy here.
You would think there would be some kind of remorse or sadness that people are dying, but given the reaction, it's more a celebration than remorse. And clearly even people like drew have no problem with people being murdered in cold blood so that they can have their own murder weapons. I really, really question those who call themselves Christian. Heck, even claiming to be God fearing is BS, considering that the Ten Commandments go back farther than Christianity- and this whole obsession violates that.
But when they have to dig deep into "scripture" to make up reasons to hate LBGTQ, well that somehow makes them what, exactly?
What do these two graphs have in common? They both show sharp decreases in the observed rates of firearm deaths immediately following the implementation of gun reform in two countries.
We have one of two mechanisms to explain the decrease in violent crime following gun control: either potential criminals are deterred from crime, or existing criminals are deterred from crime. Either way, you have gun reform that has produced meaningful, substantive improvements in the metrics society should care about. If it’s not clear that laws have the capacity to induce changes in behavior, I won’t be able to improve upon that position.
Without exception, every law could be refuted with the lawbreaker’s paradox, and societies would swiftly descend into anarchy if it weren’t for reasonable policymakers. Laws against rape, murder, and theft, for example, are rarely followed by rapists, murderers, and thieves, but the fact that such people exist in society is the reason behind such regulations in the first place.
To think that the minor inconvenience of gun reforms such as background checks, waiting periods, and assault weapon bans is more burdensome than the death of thousands of innocent civilians each year (which such reforms seek to redress) reflects a miscalibrated sense of what matters in the world.
Not only is this conservative sound-bite irrelevant to gun reform discussion, it’s also socially untenable and dangerously na?ve. If we were to accept that a law is justified only if it has a 100% compliance rate (this is, necessarily, the logical extension of any position that renounces legal reform under the pretense that ‘criminals don’t obey laws’), then we could systematically dismantle every existing law until nothing remains but the state of nature.
Laws against murder, rape, and theft would be abandoned out of fear that criminals wouldn’t follow them, and that they would thus hurt law-abiding citizens who ostensibly murder, rape, and thieve out of self-defense. Taking this argument to its logical endpoint, even the most hardened of libertarians would be reticent to accept a world where property crimes can be used to abrogate property rights.
-Numerous studies have found that gun ownership increases the risk of both gun-related homicides and suicides.1
-Guns in the home are particularly dangerous for victims of domestic violence. The presence of a gun in a home with a history of domestic violence increases the risk that a woman will be killed by 500 percent.2
-Guns intended for self-defense are commonly involved in fatal accidents. Studies have shown that across states, higher levels of gun ownership are linked to higher rates of unintentional firearm deaths.3
-An FBI study of 160 active-shooting incidents from 2000 to 2013 found that only one was stopped by an individual with a valid firearms permit. In contrast, 21 incidents were stopped by unarmed citizens.5
-Armed citizens can worsen the outcome of a mass shooting. During the 2011 shooting in Tucson, Arizona, an armed bystander misidentified the perpetrator and almost shot the wrong person.6
-Expansive concealed carry permitting laws are linked to an increase in violent crime. A 2017 study by researchers at Stanford University found that, 10 years after enacting these laws, states experienced a 13 percent to 15 percent rise in violent crimes.7
-Using a gun for defense during a robbery has no significant benefits. A 2015 analysis by researchers at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of
-Public Health of the National Crime Victimization Survey found that the likelihood of sustaining an injury during a robbery was nearly identical between people who attempted to defend themselves with a gun and those who took no defensive action.8
-A gun is more likely to be stolen than used to stop a crime. According to a CAP analysis of the National Crime Victimization Survey, guns are nearly twice as likely to be stolen than to be used for self-defense.9
-A 2016 CAP study found that the 10 states with the weakest gun laws have an aggregate level of gun violence that is more than three times higher than the 10 states with the strongest gun laws.12
-Research by Everytown for Gun Safety found that states that require background checks for all handgun sales have significantly lower rates of intimate partner gun homicides of women; law enforcement officers killed with handguns; and gun-related suicides.13
Two studies by the John Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health demonstrated the impact of permit-to-purchase laws that include a background check requirement. When Connecticut implemented this law, gun homicides in the state fell 40 percent. When Missouri repealed a similar law, gun homicides in that state rose 25 percent.14
@JohnCornyn
The gunman authorities said was responsible for the deaths of eight in Allen, Texas, was terminated by the Army for mental-health reasons three months after he enlisted in 2008 https://wsj.com/articles/gunman-in-texas-mass-shooting-was-terminated-by-army-3a3ab769?st=sj6mipnadm8qu9i
via
@WSJ
2nd Amendment has outlived it's usefulness. Time to take the toys away.
Didn’t you know? We’re the only nation with mental illness. And video games. And porn.I'm sick and tired of being sad about it and I haven't had that Kevin Bacon moment yet. And I don't want to.
jfc
Man Shot 14-Year-Old in Back of Head as She Was Playing Hide-and-Seek: Cops
The teenager was taken to a hospital with non-life-threatening injuries, and is “okay and recovering” after the incident, according to family members
The menial illness is FNC, OANN, Newsmaxx and their ilk. And every male feeling aggrieved that no women will **** them just because the guy points at his crotch.
That said I am all for money being put towards mental illness, but it's another issue the comes down to the health insurance industry. Mental health by and large is not covered by health insurance and the GQP does not care how much money any industry makes no matter how much its customers suffer.
Until the lobby industry is curtailed, big business will have its way without fail. No regulation, no oversight, CEO and executive salaries without caps. I make $100 million per year and goddamn if I'm not going to earn 110 if it means anyone lower than me will benefit.
An article about local Republican sheriff departments refusing to enforce red flag laws.
When the FBI has to make a video like this...
https://twitter.com/AdamParkhomenko/status/1655869602549694464?t=2dCeDGZybpJF2gcZJ8crFQ&s=19
When the FBI has to make a video like this...
https://twitter.com/AdamParkhomenko/status/1655869602549694464?t=2dCeDGZybpJF2gcZJ8crFQ&s=19
It's from 2020, and sadly as current as ever.